SMCI Q4 FY2025 Earnings Preview: Balancing AI Momentum with Margin and Governance Risks
TradingKey - Super Micro Computer, Inc. (NASDAQ: SMCI) is scheduled to report its Q4 FY2025 earnings on Tuesday, August 5, 2025, after the U.S. market closes. The earnings call will begin at 5:00 p.m. Eastern Time (2:00 p.m. Pacific Time).
Market Forecast
Metric | Q4 FY2025 Estimate | Q4 FY2024 Actual | Change |
Total Revenue | $6.0B | $5.3B | +13.2% |
Adjusted EPS | $0.45 | $0.63 | -28.6% |
Gross Margin | 11.0% | 11.2% | -20 bps |
Source: SMCI, Nasdaq, TradingKey
Where Investors Should Watch
AI Infrastructure Demand and Revenue Growth: SMCI is a leading provider of AI-optimized servers and storage solutions with a dominant position in liquid cooling technology. Growth is supported by hyperscale data centers upgrading from older NVIDIA GPUs to the newer Blackwell generation. Updates on the $20 billion DataVolt deal and partnerships with NVIDIA and Fujitsu will offer insight into the company’s long-term growth trajectory.
Gross Margin Pressures: Q3 gross margin dropped to 9.6% due to higher inventory reserves of older products and expedited launches but may recover to about 11.0% in Q4 due to inventory normalization and scaling of new product lines. Margin pressure continues from competitive pricing and component cost fluctuations. Management’s plans for cost control and inventory management will be important to monitor.
Operational and Financial Transparency: After completing internal control improvements in response to Nasdaq's regulatory requirements, attention will focus on Q4 execution as Q3 revenue missed prior guidance due to sales visibility and order timing challenges during the GPU transition. The Q4 earnings call is expected to offer crucial updates on sales pipeline health, timing of delayed customer orders, and ongoing financial control enhancements, all key to rebuilding investor confidence.
Conclusion
The outlook for SMCI’s Q4 FY2025 centers on AI-driven demand, margin stabilization, and the company’s progress in scaling manufacturing operations. Revenue growth near 13% is expected, though EPS contraction signals ongoing margin challenges. Positive progress in AI partnerships, product wins, and supply chain expansion could support the company’s valuation around a 24x forward P/E multiple. Conversely, continued margin compression or signs of weakening AI demand, as well as delays in customer orders, may dampen near-term sentiment.
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