Iran Catastrophe Has Some Silver Linings

WASHINGTON, April 20 (Reuters Breakingviews) - Donald Trump seems to detest solar and wind power. Ditto the European Union. And he loves bending others to his will.

So when the U.S. president attacked Iran, he almost certainly did not plan to boost renewable energy or EU unity. And his goal can hardly have been to damage his own power. Yet these are three probable silver linings from Trump’s ill-planned strikes, which U.S. experts say may amount to war crimes.

The attack he launched with Israel is having many negative consequences. Apart from death and destruction in the Middle East, these include lower economic growth and higher inflation around the world, as the International Monetary Fund noted last week. Meanwhile, higher crude prices nearly doubled Russia’s oil and oil product export revenues to $19 billion last month, compared with February, helping it sustain its illegal war against Ukraine. American power has also taken a knock, which could be unfortunate if that lets China throw its weight around in coming years.

Trump may yet emerge from the war as a victor, by either securing a deal with Iran on his terms or bludgeoning it into submission. But for now it looks like he will not get his wishes and that some of the unintended consequences will be the opposite of what he wants.

TRUMP POWER

Top of the list is a decline in the U.S. president’s own power. The war is unpopular with his fellow citizens, not least because it has pushed up petrol prices. It has also split his core base of supporters - with influential former cheerleaders such as Tucker Carlson and Marjorie Taylor Greene attacking what Trump calls a “lovely stay”.

The downward spiral in his power, which had already fallen in response to his controversial economic and immigration policies, probably has further to go. The U.S. president may lose support among Christians after lambasting Pope Leo, who opposed the Iran war, and posting an AI-generated image of himself looking like Jesus Christ.

Voters are also likely to punish Trump’s Republican Party in November’s mid-term elections, according to betting markets. That will limit his ability to push anything through Congress. Moreover, Republican Senators and members of the House of Representatives, who have generally done what he wants, could increasingly distance themselves from him. Civil society institutions such as law firms and universities, which Trump browbeat early in his current term of office, will be less willing to bend to his will if he seems a loser.

The U.S. president may respond by taking more extreme actions. But this is likely to provoke more resistance. That could then add to a string of failures, which includes his inability to impose tariffs by diktat and fire the president of the Federal Reserve, the U.S. central bank.

Trump may still seem to have a free hand in foreign policy, where Congress and the courts have less sway. But he is not a dictator even here. He embarked upon the Iran war against the advice of many in his administration, according to the New York Times. He may have believed he was on a winning streak, after a 12-day war in Iran last year and the kidnapping of Venezuela’s leader in January. But Trump would find it harder to launch new foreign wars if his supporters view the Middle Eastern one as a debacle.

An annexation of Greenland, which Trump covets, would be particularly difficult since it is part of Denmark, a NATO country. Although the U.S. president dislikes the transatlantic alliance, many Republicans value it. There is also strong public support for Ukraine, so a weaker Trump would struggle to force it into a miserable deal with Russia.

MAKE EUROPE GREAT AGAIN

Europe is weak and divided. Its leaders are worried it could not defend itself against Russia if the U.S. abandoned Ukraine and Europe. So its leaders have put up with Trump’s menaces and insults.

But the Iran war is fuelling anti-Trump sentiment across Europe. As a result, one of the surest ways for politicians to increase their popularity is to stand up to him. That is what Spain’s Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez did in denying the United States access to its military bases and Britain’s Keir Starmer did in refusing to be part of the Strait of Hormuz blockade. Meanwhile, close association with Trump may be one reason Viktor Orbán lost this month’s Hungarian general election so decisively.

Other European far-right leaders are distancing themselves from Trump. Nigel Farage, a UK opposition politician who once boasted of his friendship with the U.S. president, said this month: “I happen to know him, but that’s by the by”. Meanwhile, previously warm relations between Giorgia Meloni and Trump have soured after the Italian prime minister defended the Pope against the U.S. president’s verbal attacks.

Saying “no” to Trump’s demands will not in itself make Europe great again. But his threats may galvanise its countries to build their military muscle faster and unite. Even Britain, which pulled out of the EU, wants to get closer to the bloc.

POLITICAL JUJITSU

Trump calls climate change a “hoax” and spouts the mantra “drill, baby drill”. It is a sweet irony that his Iran war will probably give a fillip to renewable energy.

Countries that do not produce their own oil and gas are alarmed about shortages. For most, the best medium-term response will be to accelerate the rollout of solar and wind power, which will also help mitigate global warming.

Renewable energy in Europe surged after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 disrupted gas supplies. Similarly, the Iran war will lead to faster adoption of low-carbon power in many countries, Fatih Birol, the International Energy Authority’s executive director, told the Atlantic Council in Washington last week.

Under the doctrine of “political jujitsu”, leaders who lash out unthinkingly can produce exactly the opposite of what they want via a boomerang effect. Trump seems to be proving the validity of this theory in Iran.

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