[Reuters Analysis] Are funds' corn views heading for the ultra-bearish year-ago levels?

By Karen Braun

NAPERVILLE, Illinois, June 23 (Reuters) - Like a broken record, speculators continued selling Chicago corn last week. Their bearish corn stance is now almost identical to their year-ago one, which preceded the all-time net short set in early July.

There are some notable differences between the two years, however.

The latest Commitments of Traders data, published on Monday afternoon instead of the normal Friday slot due to last week’s holiday, showed that money managers increased their net short position in CBOT corn futures and options to 184,788 contracts through June 17, up from 164,020 a week earlier.

That marked funds’ most bearish corn view since late August, and it was their 16th week as net sellers out of the last 19 weeks. A year ago, the managed money corn net short was only a few thousand contracts larger.

In June 2024, the U.S. Department of Agriculture projected domestic 2024-25 corn ending stocks rising 4% from 2023-24. USDA currently pegs 2025-26 U.S. corn carryout rising 28% from 2024-25.

The volume trend is reversed. USDA’s latest 2025-26 estimate of 1.75 billion bushels is well below the 2024-25 estimate from a year ago of 2.1 billion bushels.

However, Brazil is harvesting a bumper corn crop much larger than a year ago, and U.S. crop conditions are above average with decent weather expected in the near term.

Both old- and new-crop CBOT corn futures are trading slightly below the year-ago levels. July corn CN25 notched a lifetime low on Monday while December futures CZ25 hit six-month lows.

The weakness in nearby corn prices – and the implied roominess in U.S. stockpiles – will be tested next Monday when USDA publishes its June 1 stocks survey. Industry participants will also be watching to see if U.S. corn plantings expand further from the 12-year high pegged in March.

OTHER NOTABLE MOVES

CBOT soybean oil BON25 surged 14.6% in the week ended June 17 but was up as much as 16% after proposed U.S. biofuel blending targets exceeded expectations. That brought most-active futures to the highest levels since October 2023.

Money managers extended their net long in CBOT soybean oil futures and options to 46,143 contracts through June 17, up more than 21,000 on the week. For comparison, funds’ net buying has exceeded 35,000 contracts in three different weeks so far this year.

Ample global soybean meal supplies have lured funds deep into their bear cave. Through June 17, money managers added more than 20,000 contracts to their CBOT soybean meal net short, which rose to 107,081 futures and options contracts, within a couple hundred of last month’s record.

Speculators’ soybean moves echoed their soybean oil ones. Through June 17, money managers boosted their net long in CBOT soybean futures and options to 59,165 contracts, their most bullish stance since November 2023. That compared with 25,639 a week earlier and was split between new longs and short covering.

CBOT September wheat WU25 rose 3% in the week ended June 17, and money managers cut their net short position in CBOT wheat futures and options to a 13-week low of 81,353 contracts from 94,011 a week earlier.

September wheat gained 0.7% over the last three sessions but was up as much as 5% during the period on global supply concerns. Soyoil lost nearly 3% over the last three sessions, meal was down fractionally, and both old- and new-crop corn and soybean contracts posted losses.

In addition to monitoring U.S. weather and positioning ahead of USDA’s June 30 stocks and acres reports, traders will need to keep an eye on the Middle East conflict, which tanked crude oil prices on Monday.

U.S. President Donald Trump said late on Monday that a ceasefire had been reached between Israel and Iran, so the situation is still very much unfolding.

Karen Braun is a market analyst for Reuters. Views expressed above are her own.

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Managed money net position in CBOT corn futures and options

Managed money net position in CBOT soybean oil futures and options

Managed money net position in CBOT soybean meal futures and options

Managed money net position in CBOT soybean futures and options

Managed money net position in Chicago wheat futures and options