AGNT 2026年第三季法說會：營收成長、EBITDA下滑與第四季財測指引

重點摘要

• 2026 年第三季營收年增 6% 至 14 億美元，毛利亦年增 6% 至 9,100 萬美元。
• 調整後 EBITDA 下滑 3% 至 1,710 萬美元。營業利益下滑 23% 至 310 萬美元，主因法律訴訟成本居高不下。
• 房地產交易量成長 8% 至逾 131,000 件，房產銷售總額成長 10% 至 593 億美元。兩項數據均包含 NextHome。
• AGNT 截至本季末擁有 87,457 名房仲經紀人，年增 5%。若不計 NextHome，交易量成長 1.7%，人均生產力則提升 6% 至 5.5 件。
• 管理階層預期第四季營收為 10 億至 12 億美元，調整後 EBITDA 預計介於虧損 700 萬美元至損益兩平之間，主因房貸利率走高、房市需求疲軟及法律訴訟費用增加。
• 全年營收指引目前為 48.5 億至 50.5 億美元，調整後 EBITDA 預計介於 4,000 萬至 4,700 萬美元。

重要財務數據

業務與營運表現

北美房地產業務仍是 AGNT 最大的部門。營收成長 5% 至 13 億美元，營業利益下滑 10% 至 950 萬美元，調整後 EBITDA 下滑 3% 至 2,230 萬美元。

國際業務營收成長 27% 至 5,170 萬美元，營業虧損縮小 14% 至 190 萬美元，調整後 EBITDA 虧損改善 18% 至 130 萬美元。其他附屬服務產生 70 萬美元營收，調整後 EBITDA 虧損為 50 萬美元，較去年同期改善 58%。

NextHome 支援 AGNT 的多元模式平台，並對財報公布的交易量、銷售額及經紀人成長有所貢獻。管理階層亦指出，包括 LuxVT 與 Revenos 在內利潤率較高的附屬服務，有望成為推動利潤成長的潛在動能。由 Newrez 提供支援的合資企業 Revenos Mortgage 預計將於 2027 年初推出。

經紀人生產力仍是核心焦點。超過 90% 的流失人員來自完成交易少於約 7 件的經紀人，且離開 eXp 的無生產力美國經紀人中，有 49% 同時離開了該行業。團隊型經紀人佔第三季新增經紀人的 44%，管理階層表示團隊型經紀人的生產力比獨立經紀人高出 77%。

AGNT 亦概述了圍繞 MCP 連接器與 AgentOS 的技術策略。在過去 90 天內，The Hub 記錄了近 300 萬則訊息，並支援超過 1,700 個活躍社群群組。Hub MCP 在 10 月 8 日推出後獲得了超過 120 萬次工具呼叫。管理階層表示，這些舉措旨在長期減少營運阻力，但同時提醒現在評估其實現時程或財務影響仍為時過早。

與其他三家股權成員共同成立的 Open Real Estate，旨在為房地產刊登資料建立共享基礎設施。該公司為獨立實體，並未併入 AGNT 的財務報表。管理階層預期 AGNT 的初期啟動及近期開發成本仍微不足道。

管理階層指引

管理階層表示，更新後的展望反映了高房貸利率對房市需求的持續壓力，以及高於公司基準水準的法律費用。AGNT 計劃在公布 2026 年第四季財報時提供 2027 年的策略與指引。

風險與觀察重點

管理階層形容房市充滿挑戰，預估全年成屋銷售量將維持在接近 400 萬戶的水準，且房貸利率高於 7.3%。公司引述房利美（Fannie Mae）的預測，第四季利率為 7.4%，2027 年全年則維持在 7.5%。

較高的房貸利率使進入第四季後的房市需求疲軟。由於數起進行中的訴訟案件，預計 2026 年下半年的法律費用仍將維持在高檔。管理階層認為這些費用在 2026 年達到高峰，並應在 2027 年逐步回歸至公司的基準水準。

AGNT 估計其成本結構中約有三分之一為變動成本，三分之二為固定或間接成本。管理階層指出，部分間接費用仍有調整空間，並重申公司對營運效率與單位經濟效益的重視。

分析師問答精華

當被問及若房市持續疲軟 AGNT 將如何確保獲利能力時，財務長 Jesse Hill 表示公司將持續聚焦於營運效率與單位經濟效益。更詳細的 2027 年指引將在年底後公布，屆時管理階層預期對利率與市場趨勢將有更清晰的掌握。

在招募與留任方面，執行長 Leo Pareja 表示，儘管產業持續萎縮，經紀人流失率並未加速。公司仍專注於具生產力的經紀人與團隊，而大多數流失人員仍來自生產力較低的族群。

完整法說會逐字稿

完整財報電話會議逐字稿

管理層陳述

Operator

[Operator Instructions]

Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, Denise Garcia, Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

Unknown Speaker

Thanks, operator. Good afternoon and welcome to eXp's third quarter 2026 earnings conference call. Joining me today are Leo Pareja, eXp's Chief Executive Officer, and Jesse Hill, eXp's Chief Financial Officer. Following our prepared remarks, we'll open the call for Q&A. Questions can be submitted via slido.com using event code AGNT, or simply scan the QR code in the supplemental materials available on AGNT's investor relations website at agnt.inc. But first, I'll review the Safe Harbor statement.

During this call, we may make statements related to our business that are forward-looking statements under federal securities laws. Forward-looking statements include all statements other than those of historical fact. These statements are not guarantees of future performance, but rather are subject to a variety of risks, uncertainties, and assumptions. Our actual results could differ materially from the expectations reflected in any forward-looking statements. For a discussion of the material risks and other important factors that could affect our actual results, please refer to our SEC filings available on the SEC website and on our investor relations website, as well as the risks and other factors discussed in today's earnings press release. Additional information is also available in our quarterly report on Form 10-Q for the quarter ended September 30, 2026, which was filed today.

In addition, references will be made to certain non-GAAP financial measures. Adjusted EBITDA is a non-GAAP financial measure, and all other financial measures are GAAP unless cited as non-GAAP. Information on non-GAAP financial measures, including a reconciliation to the most directly comparable GAAP measure, is available in the press release issued this afternoon and in the Investor Relations section of our website at agnt.inc. Unless otherwise noted, reported figures are rounded and comparisons for the third quarter of 2026 are to the third quarter of 2025. With that, I'll turn the call over to Leo.

Leo Pareja

Thank you, Denise, and good afternoon, everyone. It's a pleasure to be speaking to you for the first time as the CEO of AGNT. I'm excited to lead this company to our next era of growth, and I'm looking forward to sharing our 2027 strategy on the next call when we wrap up the fourth quarter of 2026. Today, we'll cover a few items: our operating environment, where we're focused for the rest of this year, and how the third quarter reflects that focus. Let me start with the market because it shapes everything. To be direct, it remains challenging, and we're planning accordingly.

Existing home sales are on pace to land at or near 4 million again this year. Inventory is up about 7% from a year ago, but it's still below pre-COVID levels. Mortgage rates are sitting above 7.3%, and Fannie recently raised its 30-year fixed forecast to 7.4% for the fourth quarter and 7.5% throughout 2027, and these are up from earlier projections below 7%. We should expect this market to stay difficult for a while. And we've said this to our agents, but we also want to make it clear about how we see it. This is not a market that's broken. It's a market that's resetting to normal after two record booms, warped expectations, and life events still force people to move. And in a market that requires real skill, the agents who are doing the work are taking share. That's where we're well-positioned. We have scale. We have a value stack for agents that we believe is unmatched. We have a competitive compensation structure and a strong agent base that's increasingly productive, and we're up for the challenge.

An important industry announcement I want to address: On October 26, eXp, along with Keller Williams, HomeServices of America, and Real REMAX Group, announced Open Real Estate, a national initiative to create a shared infrastructure for property listing data. The idea is simple: A brokerage or an agent would create a listing once using a minimum set of standard fields, and it would be shared with participating members and distributed to local MLSs, home search sites, and other platforms. When listings are fragmented or kept out of view, buyers can miss homes, and sellers can reach fewer potential buyers. Open Real Estate is designed to work alongside MLSs to combat market fragmentation, and it's open to every brokerage in America as a free participating member.

To be clear, Open Real Estate is a standalone company with its own board of managers and its own leadership, which will be built over the coming months. AGNT is one of the 4 founding equity members, but Open Real Estate is not a consolidated subsidiary of AGNT, and we do not expect it to have a material effect on our results. AGNT shares Open Real Estate's conviction that access, information, and transparency should be a benefit, not a barrier, to both buyers and sellers. With that, let's move on to where we're focused for the rest of the year. There are 4 key targets we're focused on to manage through this cycle and come out ahead: agents, innovation, operating efficiency, and margin expansion. Let me address each, starting with agents.

We believe AGNT is a global operating system for the modern real estate entrepreneur, and we've worked to build this since our inception. Most recently, with the acquisition of NextHome, we created a multi-model platform. Independent agents, team leaders, and franchise owners can all find a home built for the way they want to grow. We established 2 models this year, providing real estate professionals with maximum optionality. We've also made real strides in providing agents with the tools they need to run their business. Our goal is simple: help agents sell and manage their business, get paid smoothly, and provide better training and support at every step. Our intention is to earn the right to continue to be the most agent-centric brokerage on the planet.

Moving on to our next area of focus, innovation. Innovation is in our DNA. We built the first cloud-based brokerage, and we intend to keep our lead as a technology innovator in the space. At eXpCon last month, we announced 2 things we want to highlight. #1 is our MCP-first AI of choice initiative. Most companies in our industry are building their own AI assistant, their own chatbot, their own login, and a set of new habits that agents are asked to adopt. We asked a different question: Why ask agents to change their habits at all? Our agents are already using AI they trust, whether that's Claude, GPT, or another tool. So we built MCP connectors that meet our agents natively wherever they are today—no new app to download, no new login to remember. An agent asks a question and gets the right answer where they are working natively. We're not trying to outbuild the largest frontier models in the world; we're going to connect to them instead.

#2 is AgentOS, which stands for Agentic Operating System. Our stock ticker, AGNT, represents where the company is going. It's a full modernization of how eXp runs, agent-first from the ground up, built for a world you're actually operating in today. MCP is the front door; AgentOS is the whole house. It's the full modernization of how we run, from how agents get paid to how a transaction moves to how they're supported from day 1. And we're making this all easy to find in the Hub. The Hub is now a scaled enterprise-grade software built for agents' specific needs. Every line of code is written by AI, and much of its ongoing iteration and maintenance runs through our agentic software factory methodology, with stakeholders directly shaping its evolution.

Today, at the center of the community and the communication at AGNT, the Hub continues to grow steadily month-over-month with nearly 3 million messages sent in just the last 90 days and more than 1,700 active community groups. Our new Hub MCP has received more than 1.2 million tool calls since its October 8 launch. As the rest of the AgentOS ecosystem takes shape, with the Hub being at the center of it, we expect to see adoption increase. Here's why this matters to you as investors: These initiatives support 3 of our 4 pillars. On innovation, this puts us inside of the tools agents already use every day, rather than asking them to adopt something new and diverting their attention away from closing deals and putting a drag on their productivity. On operating efficiency, modernizing the systems underneath the business should, over time, reduce friction in transaction processing and how agents are supported. These are early days, so we'll be careful not to overpromise on timing or financial impact, but we're encouraged by the direction, and we'll share our 2027 plans on our next call.

Now let me take you through our third quarter operating highlights. We entered the quarter with revenue, real estate transactions, sales volume, agents, and transactions per agent all up year-over-year. Our agents are increasingly productive, even in a tough market. And we continue to retain our most productive agents. Consistent with Q2, over 90% of our attrition comes from the less productive cohort, and nearly half of the non-productive agents in the U.S. who left eXp also left the industry. And we continue to add agents on teams, with 44% of new agent joiners on teams in Q3. And this is important because agents on teams are 77% more productive than individual agents.

Another priority is margin expansion, and there are several places I'd point to. First, international. We've consistently narrowed its operating losses and improved adjusted EBITDA while expanding our presence worldwide. Jesse will provide additional detail on the third quarter business segment performance shortly. Second, our ancillary services, such as LuxVT and Revenos, are higher-margin businesses that help agents win in the luxury market and generate leads in any market. At eXpCon, we also announced Revenos Mortgage powered by Newrez, a joint venture we expect to launch in early 2027. Third, franchise systems like NextHome. NextHome is not yet a significant contributor to overall gross margin, but we believe it has the potential to drive gross margin up over time as we scale. We're operating with discipline, we're investing where we see real opportunity, and we're staying realistic about the market. With that, I'll hand it over to Jesse.

Jesse Hill

Thank you, Leo, and good afternoon, everyone. I'll walk through our consolidated operating and financial results for the third quarter. I'll also provide more detail across our business segments and our outlook for the remainder of the year before opening up the call to questions.

Starting with operational results, we ended the quarter with 87,457 agents, up 5% year-over-year. That figure includes the agents who joined us with the NextHome acquisition in May. Real estate sales transactions were over 131,000, up 8% year-over-year, and sales volume was $59.3 billion, up 10% year-over-year, both including NextHome. NextHome is the heart of our strategy to build a multi-model platform, and it contributed to that growth. Excluding NextHome, transactions were up 1.7%, and productivity per person was 5.5, up 6% year-over-year. We're encouraged that the productivity gains and the transaction growth in our core business are showing up in our numbers, and we're pleased with how NextHome is adding a franchise platform and reach to agents who prefer that model as we continue to integrate it.

Revenue was $1.4 billion, up 6% year-over-year, and within our guidance range of $1.35 billion to $1.45 billion, despite increased pressure from the macro environment during the quarter. Gross profit was $91 million, also up 6%. Operating expenses were $87.9 million, within our guidance range of $85 million to $90 million. Operating income was $3.1 million, down 23% from last year. This was primarily the result of heightened legal costs, which we expect to continue in the back half of the year, as we flagged on last quarter's call. Adjusted EBITDA was $17.1 million, down 3% year-over-year, and within our guidance range of $17 million to $22 million. Finally, we ended the quarter with $111.4 million in cash, roughly flat with last year and up slightly from the second quarter as we balance building our cash reserves against opportunistically buying back shares at these levels. We continue to build our cash reserves to preserve optionality, and we remain debt-free.

North America Realty remains our largest operating segment. Revenue was $1.3 billion, up 5%. Operating income was $9.5 million, down 10%. And adjusted EBITDA was $22.3 million, down 3%. International remains our fastest-growing segment. Revenue was $51.7 million, up 27%. While we continue to invest in expansion, the segment's operating loss was $1.9 million, a 14% improvement year-over-year, and adjusted EBITDA was a loss of $1.3 million, an 18% improvement. Our other affiliated services segment contributed $0.7 million in revenue, with an adjusted EBITDA loss of $0.5 million, a 58% improvement year-over-year. In total, that's $1.4 billion in revenue, $3.1 million in operating income, and $17.1 million in adjusted EBITDA.

Looking ahead, we remain focused on agent success, innovation, operating efficiently, and margin expansion. For the fourth quarter, we project revenue of $1.0 billion to $1.2 billion, operating expenses of $93 million to $97 million, and adjusted EBITDA of -$7 million to break even. Elevated mortgage rates have continued to pressure housing demand, and we have updated our top-line guidance accordingly. For the full year, we now expect revenue in the range of $4.85 billion to $5.05 billion. As we approach year-end, we have increased visibility on Q4 operating expenses as reflected in our updated OPEX and EBITDA guidance. We now expect operating expenses in the range of $362 million to $367 million, and adjusted EBITDA between $40 million to $47 million. While the current operating environment remains challenging, we continue to focus on our top priorities, including agents, innovation, driving efficiency, and expanding margins. We believe we are well-positioned to support these initiatives and drive shareholder value long-term. With that, Leo and I would be happy to take your questions.

Operator

[Operator Instructions]

I'll hand it back to Denise for some kickoff questions.

Unknown Speaker

Thanks, operator. So while we're waiting, I'll kick it off with a couple of questions that we received from our analysts. I'll start with you, Leo. So what are the initial startup costs of Open Real Estate and what's the financial impact as the collaboration scales?

Leo Pareja

Thanks, Denise. First, some context: Open Real Estate is a collaboration among 4 founding members today and it's not consolidated into our financial statement. Our exposure is limited to our share as one of those founding members. Our startup costs and our spend to date have been very modest and not material to eXp. Going forward, costs will be borne out of all the founding members, not just to AGNT alone. As the venture builds out in key leadership and moves ahead with platform development and expected cost increases over the next 2 quarters, we don't expect that increase to be material to AGNT's results.

Unknown Speaker

Okay, thanks. And Jesse, one for you. Can you expand on your fourth quarter and full year guidance? What's changed since you provided guidance in August?

Jesse Hill

Yes, thank you, Denise. While our Q3 results were solid, our updated Q4 guidance reflects 2 primary factors, really: the macro headwinds that we're all seeing and elevated legal expenses that we're seeing here at AGNT. So, on the top line, rising interest rates continue to weigh significantly on housing demand, and we've seen that softening as we've headed into Q4 here. And on the bottom line, legal costs are continuing to run high to our baseline due to several active matters that we believe are reaching peak activity in 2026. And so both of these combined cause us to adjust our full year adjusted EBITDA guidance range accordingly. And then just one more note on the legal cost: While we always expect to have some baseline of legal expenses, we are confident that 2026 is running above that baseline, and we believe it will normalize as we head into 2027.

Operator

We have a question over the phone line from Steven Sheldon with William Blair.

分析師問答

Stephen Sheldon

Just, I guess, as we think about the cost structure, you know, the housing market has been weak, right? I guess if that continues through next year, are there things you could do to, I guess, protect the bottom line and the profit trajectory here? And maybe just kind of give us a refresh on the expense base, how much of that is kind of fixed versus variable? Would love detail there. Thanks.

Jesse Hill

Sure, thank you for the question. We've communicated at a very high level before. We don't break it out, but when we show that unit economics and our key performance indicators that we track in the 10-Q, the fixed and variable split that you're asking for, it's generally 1/3, 2/3. That's a safe range: 1/3 variable, 2/3 fixed. We like to use internally the language direct and indirect, right? It's not exactly fixed in the sense of having a factory or a tractor. And so even the indirect costs for us are slightly fungible, legal being an example here. And then going forward, to answer your question, we intend to provide guidance in Q4 for 2027 when we have a stronger finger on the pulse for what interest rates are going to look like, what trends are looking like when we have closed out the year here. But just initially, I can tell you, we are really focused on operational efficiency and what we can do with our unit economics. And we're going to continue to focus on that as we head into 2027.

Stephen Sheldon

Got it. That's helpful. And then maybe just as a follow-up, you know, I would love to get any detail on what you're seeing in the recruiting pipeline for agents, teams, et cetera. And I think some peers have talked about industry agent churn picking up. I joined late, so apologies if I missed this. But just talk about both what you're seeing in the pipeline, the ability to add gross agents, and then the trends you're seeing on the churn side and if anything's directionally changing in any of those categories.

Leo Pareja

Thanks, Steven. It's Leo. Yes, so what we're seeing is pretty consistent. Over 90% of our attrition comes from the agents doing less than 7 or so transactions. When we had the slides on the virtual world, I was able to point that out pretty clearly. And 49% of the non-productive agents who left eXp left the industry in Q3. So 44% of all new agents joining us are joining on teams. Definitely seeing a skew over the last 5 years, if you will. I can give you an anecdotal story with one of our top team leaders.

I was on the phone with her the other day, and she said 5 years ago, 90% of the agents joining her team were brand new agents. And now she says 65% are actually pretty seasoned who are just tired. So, you know, we're really focused on productivity. Programs like FastCap, we just won 2 gold awards competing with companies like 3M and Pepsi in training, is where we're really focused. I would actually give you a slightly different view of the churn. I feel like a lot of the inherent churn happened over the last 3 years. And the folks who are here are kind of the survivors of the process.

But again, we're still seeing, I would say, seasonal year-over-year, quarter-over-quarter ratios. So we haven't seen an uptick, if you will, even though the industry continues to contract. So in other calls, I've celebrated that flat in a contracting denominator basis feels really, really good. You know, we're more of the same really tough macro, but we're really focused on productivity. And I think I said 59%, I meant 49%. So yes, tough macro. We're really focused on skills. That's the agent that's going to survive in this market.

Stephen Sheldon

Makes sense. Thank you.

Operator

[Operator Instructions]

With no additional questions in the queue, we'll wrap up today's call. Thank you to everyone who joined. A recording of this call and our latest investor presentation are available on our investor relations website at agnt.inc. Thank you.

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