馬尼托瓦克 (MTW) 2026 年第三季法說會：調升 EBITDA 財測指引

重點摘要

• 在北美市場與歐洲塔式起重機業務帶動下，第三季淨銷售額年增 11% 至 6.14 億美元。調整後 EBITDA 成長 39% 至 4,700 萬美元，利潤率擴增 150 個基點至 7.7%。
• 新獲訂單成長 38% 至 6.76 億美元，訂單出貨比達 1.1 倍。在手訂單金額超過 11 億美元，年增 4.44 億美元。
• 馬尼托瓦克 (Manitowoc) 調升 2026 年展望，預估調整後 EBITDA 為 1.6 億至 1.75 億美元，調整後稀釋每股盈餘為 0.90 至 1.25 美元。
• 美洲地區訂單年增 60%，中東地區訂單成長 72%，歐洲塔式起重機訂單亦成長 20%。相較之下，歐洲移動式起重機訂單則大幅下滑。
• 過去 12 個月非新機銷售額成長 5% 至 7.03 億美元。管理階層表示，這項利潤率較高的業務仍是其「Cranes+50」策略的核心。
• 管理階層預計季末在手訂單中約有一半將於第四季交付，但同時指出庫存需求、關稅壓力及荷莫茲海峽風險為主要不確定因素。

核心財務業績

業務與營運表現

新機銷售額年增 34%，延續近期的改善態勢。北美市場與歐洲塔式起重機為主要營收成長動能，而定價效益落實、良好的執行力及重組帶來的成本節約則為獲利能力提供支撐。

美洲地區訂單成長 60%。起重機稼動率維持高檔，客戶信心正向，經銷商庫存保持精實。馬尼托瓦克 2027 年大型履帶式起重機與大型越野起重機的排產名額已全數售罄，客戶更開始展現對 2028 年排產時程的興趣。

歐洲市場表現好壞參半。受需求改善帶動，塔式起重機訂單成長 20%，但移動式起重機訂單大幅下滑。管理階層對法國市場持審慎態度，對德國的基礎建設與住宅營造活動較為樂觀，並看好義大利、西班牙、葡萄牙及愛爾蘭的起重機市場。

中東地區訂單成長 72%，不過地緣政治與航運風險依然存在。在亞太地區，管理階層強調了澳洲的專案活動，以及南韓受半導體、資料中心、電網擴建和住宅營建帶動的不斷增長之需求。

在「Cranes+50」策略推動下，馬尼托瓦克持續拓展服務據點、技師培訓、售後市場產品與技術。位於布里斯本、墨爾本和蒙特雷的新服務中心已投入營運。該公司亦正對其移動式起重機工廠的 ERP 系統進行現代化升級，該專案預計將持續至 2028 年初。

管理階層表示，非新機銷售的毛利率約為 35%。據估計，截至 2026 年底，此項業務若成長約 1 億美元，在扣除銷管費用後將貢獻約 2,500 萬美元的調整後 EBITDA，儘管關稅、通膨以及歐洲塔式起重機市場的不景氣在合併業績中掩蓋了這一效益。

管理階層財測指引

馬尼托瓦克調升 2026 全年財測指引：

管理階層預計逾 11 億美元的在手訂單中，約有一半將在第四季出貨。該公司第四季需產生約 9,000 萬美元的自由現金流，才能達到全年財測的中位數，但強勁的需求也需要額外投入庫存，以滿足第一季的客戶承諾訂單。

管理階層預計至年底淨槓桿比率將接近 2 倍。長期而言，公司仍以 30 億美元營收、12% 的 EBITDA 利潤率以及 15% 的投資資本回報率為目標。這些屬於遠期願景目標，而非正式財測。

風險與觀察重點

• 關稅與通膨仍是利潤率面臨的逆風。管理階層表示，目前仍有超過 3,000 萬美元的缺口需要彌補，並指出共需透過提價回收 5,000 萬美元，以因應通膨、關稅及相關利潤損失。
• 歐洲市場復甦步伐不一，法國市況脆弱，加上移動式起重機訂單疲軟，抵消了塔式起重機需求的改善。
• 荷莫茲海峽周遭的衝突依然是中東地區出貨的潛在風險，管理階層已將此納入未來展望考量。
• 第四季自由現金流取決於營運資金的轉化情況，而為了支援第一季交付所進行的庫存投資可能會對營運結果造成壓力。
• 二手起重機銷售可能存在波動。第三季二手起重機營收年減 1,000 萬美元，但管理階層表示，零件與維修服務業務的成長帶動了更佳的獲利結構。

分析師問答焦點

管理階層表示，受歐洲季節性因素影響，第四季通常優於第三季，但同時指出去年同期基期偏高，且 12 月可能出現波動。10 月訂單金額約為 2.5 億美元，顯示季末後成長動能仍在延續。

針對售後市場業務，管理階層將單季非新機銷售持平歸因於少數二手起重機的出貨時程差異。利潤率較高的零件與維修服務業務實現成長，進而帶來更為有利的獲利組合。

該公司持續透過主要聚焦於售後市場業務的標的庫來評估收購案。在評估潛在機會的同時，管理階層仍計劃繼續降低負債。

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管理層陳述

Operator

Good morning, and welcome to The Manitowoc Company Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] Please note, this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Ion Warner, Senior Vice President, Marketing and Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

Ion Warner

Good morning, everyone, and welcome to our earnings call to review the company's third quarter 2026 financial performance and business update as outlined in last evening's press release. Joining me this morning with prepared remarks are Aaron Ravenscroft, our President and Chief Executive Officer; and Brian Regan, our Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer.

Earlier this morning, we posted our slide presentation to the Investor Relations section on our website, www.manitowoc.com, which you can use to follow along with our prepared remarks. Please turn to Slide 2. Before we start, please note our safe harbor statement in the material provided for this call.

During this call, forward-looking statements as defined in the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 are made based on the company's current assessment of its markets and other factors that affect its business. However, actual results could differ materially from any implied or actual projections due to one or more of the factors, among others, described in the company's latest SEC filings. The Manitowoc Company does not undertake any obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statement, whether the result of new information, future events or other circumstances. And with that, I'll turn the call over to Aaron.

Aaron Ravenscroft

Thank you, Ion, and good morning, everyone. Please turn to Slide 3. The Manitowoc team delivered another solid quarter. Sales increased by over 10% and adjusted EBITDA was up almost 40% versus last year. Fundamentally, the market is pretty good. The European tower crane business has rebounded to a decent level. We are starting to bounce back from Liberation Day in the United States, and we are seeing the fruits of our labor in growing our aftermarket.

The Manitowoc team has endured a lot over the last few years, and I'd like to recognize their sheer will to not just persevere but to excel. Regardless of the forces outside of our control, the team has relentlessly focused on growing segments of the business with annuity-like revenue streams and the highest returns. At the same time, we have remained diligent with new product development and continuous improvement, all the while delivering greater value to our customers. Thank you to the team. Your hard work is paying off.

Please move to Slide 4. Starting with safety, we finished September with a year-to-date recordable injury rate of 0.96. In October, we completed our third annual safety month. This year, we focused on sharing best practices across Manitowoc on near misses, sharing these early hazard reports helps prevent future injuries and plays a critical role on our journey towards 0 injuries.

Please move to Slide 5. Moving to our Cranes+50 strategy. Non-new machine sales continue to move in the right direction and grew 5% year-over-year on a trailing 12-month basis. For the quarter, we were a little lighter than we had hoped. We have 4 enablers in growing non-new machine sales, opening new service center locations, growing our technician population, adding lifting products and leveraging technology. First, on expanding our service locations. The new Brisbane and Melbourne service centers that I highlighted last quarter are now open and serving customers. Both locations have emergency parts inventory, fully equipped service trucks and experienced teams in place. I look forward to participating in customer events at each of our Australian branches in December. Our new Monterrey, Mexico location is also fully operational.

In terms of growing our technicians, training is more important than just adding headcount, and I'd like to highlight our new mobile technical training center, which we launched at ConExpo. Rather than requiring dealers, crane rental houses and MGX technicians to travel to Shady Grove, we are now delivering hands-on training in the field. Since beginning this initiative in April, we've conducted 8 classes for 46 students and have another 3 classes scheduled for the fourth quarter. Investment in the training center strengthens technical expertise, improves crane uptime and ultimately supports our customers' profitability. Our customers only make money when their cranes are at work.

Our third pillar is expanding aftermarket products. Recently, our team in China launched Potain-branded hoists and battery systems for the APAC market. We've already sold 5 hoists in Vietnam and 20 battery systems in Australia. Turning new products and sustainable aftermarket growth requires a complete commercial approach, combining voice of customer insights, customer education and effective marketing. Along those lines, the MGX team in the U.S. hosted 7 open houses during the quarter, attracting more than 400 attendees. These events showcased our expanded product portfolio with a particular focus on Hiab loader cranes, which we distribute in 13 states. And I'm happy to report we also took a few orders. These efforts deepen customer relationships and create additional opportunities to sell products and grow our aftermarket.

Finally, as it relates to technology, we are modernizing the ERP system at our mobile factories, which will improve our workflows with our parts distribution and service centers. These upgrades will eliminate duplicative and manual processes, simplify the movement of parts across our network and help us respond more quickly to customers. We expect this project to continue into early 2028.

Please turn to Slide 6. Moving to the Manitowoc Way, I'd like to highlight 2 excellent improvements. Starting at our Baltar, Portugal factory, Marcelo Conde, tooling supervisor, developed an innovative way to eliminate hammers. As a reminder, tower cranes are assembled using pins that historically have been hammered. As you can see in this picture, the team developed a screw pin that does not require a hammer to lock it. For now, we are using this in the factory for fixturing, but the team is working to develop something similar that could be commercialized in the field.

Moving to our factory in Charlieu, France, Martin Fisher manufacturing engineer, recently used AI to help program a machining center. Coding for this machine was more than 10,000 lines long. Martin used AI to help simulate the machining operations to ensure his program was accurate. Normally, this would be done manually. This saves many hours of tedious work. Marcelo and Martin, well done. Thank you for your ingenuity and engagement, brilliant ideas.

Please turn to Slide 7. Starting my regional update with the Americas. Order rates in the region increased 60% year-over-year, which is a good sign that customers are busy and adjusting to the tariff situation. Crane utilization remains very high across the region and customer sentiment continues to be positive and dealer inventories remain lean. Similar to the second quarter, orders from our traditional dealer channel were particularly robust as folks replenished inventory. Likewise, orders for our MGX business were also up significantly year-over-year.

In North America, our 2027 production schedules for large crawlers and large rough terrain cranes are sold out, and we are seeing significant customer interest for 2028 build slots. Our year-over-year comp for the fourth quarter is tough, but this 2028 demand combined with potential purchases driven by accelerated depreciation at the end of the year could give us a boost.

Moving to Europe. I recently returned from a 2-week trip to the region, and it is really interesting to see how the local economies are evolving. I view the region in 3 buckets: France, Germany and the rest of Europe. Starting with France, which I think has the most complicated situation. Their debt is simply too high, social unrest is growing, and there will be a major election next year. Although there are huge housing shortages and nuclear projects have started, I expect the market to be pretty fragile for the foreseeable future.

Second, although many in Germany are quite displeased with the economic situation, I actually left the country fairly optimistic. Contrary to what the recent state-level election results would suggest, the Merz government has reduced regulations and launched a EUR 500 billion infrastructure fund. It's moving slower than anyone would like, but it's moving. Looking at the latest housing permit data on a trailing 12-month basis, Germany is up 16%, which should be favorable for the tower crane business. The German government also recently increased their GDP growth targets from 0.5% to 1.3%.

Lastly, the rest of Europe is strong. For the first time and as long as I can remember, Italy seems to have the most stable political situation in all of Europe. Italian crane people are quite pleased with President Meloni's fiscal discipline. Spain and Portugal's crane market is booming. And in Ireland, the government launched a EUR 275 billion national development plan for infrastructure projects. I recently visited several major customers in Ireland and sentiment is very positive because the money is beginning to flow.

While I'm cautiously optimistic about the future in Europe, our results during the third quarter will tell of 2 halves. Tower crane demand improved with total orders increasing 20% year-over-year. Conversely, European mobile orders for the quarter were down significantly compared to last year. However, there are encouraging signs that point to future growth. In summary, one step forward, one step back, the dance continues in Europe.

In the Middle East, customer demand for new cranes remained strong with orders up 72% year-over-year. While shipping routes have opened to deliver cranes, the ongoing conflict surrounding the Strait of Hormuz remains. The region is resilient, but risk continues.

Finally, in Asia, I was pleasantly surprised that the Chinese government recently announced a plan to invest $3.7 trillion in infrastructure. While our exposure to China is immaterial, I'm hopeful that this will relieve some of the pressure from local competitors that have been ultra aggressively growing their exports. Looking at Manitowoc's key markets in the region, business in Australia remains solid with plenty of project work underway despite inflation and the higher interest rates. In South Korea, business continues to gain momentum, particularly in semiconductors, data centers and electricity and grid expansions. In addition, the government aims to supply over 1 million public homes by 2030, expanding affordable housing in Metro Seoul.

These projects continue to support a robust demand for lifting equipment and services. Later this month, I plan to attend the bauma China trade show. We are gearing up to showcase 2 new very large tower cranes. These cranes will have the largest lifting capabilities in our portfolio, specifically designed for large infrastructure projects. These new products should serve as a catalyst for continued growth in the region. I'm looking forward to the show.

Please turn to Slide 8. Lastly, while everyone is talking about the flood of data centers across the world to support AI, I wanted to highlight some additional opportunities on the horizon. Very few people in the media are talking about the surge coming for nuclear power. There are projects currently underway like Hinkley Point in the U.K. where we currently have more than 20 cranes. The current nuclear pipeline has over 30 large reactor projects in Europe and at least an additional 10 in the U.S. While we have plenty of work to do in terms of new product development to maximize these opportunities, these are exactly the kind of projects that truly fuel the crane industry.

Nuclear projects are big, long-lasting and require a lot of cranes. This is the perfect dynamic to drive customer confidence. With that, I'll hand it over to Brian to walk you through the financials before I make a few closing remarks.

Brian Regan

Thanks, Aaron, and good morning, everyone. Please turn to Slide 9. I am very pleased with our third quarter results, which were better than expected. The results reflect improving demand, strong sales growth and solid operational execution, particularly in the Americas. Starting with orders, we booked $676 million in the third quarter, an increase of 38% from a year ago. The increase was broad-based with the Americas as the largest contributor. With that said, we also saw healthy demand across certain Middle East and Asia Pacific markets as well as in our European tower crane business, where total orders were up 20% from last year. Our book-to-bill in the quarter was 1.1x. Backlog ended the quarter at over $1.1 billion, up over $60 million from last quarter and up $444 million from a year ago. We expect roughly half of the backlog to ship during the fourth quarter.

Net sales in the third quarter were $614 million, an increase of approximately $60 million or 11% from the prior year. The increase was led by North America and our European tower crane business, with a 34% year-over-year increase in new unit sales, continuing the trend of recent improvement. Non-new machine sales were $174 million in the quarter, relatively flat from the prior year, impacted negatively by lower used crane shipments in the quarter. On a trailing 12-month basis, non-new machine sales were $703 million, up 5% from a year ago. We continue to focus on growing this higher-margin, less cyclical revenue stream through our Cranes+50 strategy.

SG&A expenses were $89 million in the quarter, $6 million higher than the prior year, primarily due to higher variable employee compensation. As a percentage of sales, SG&A improved 70 basis points from the prior year to approximately 14.4%. Adjusted EBITDA for the quarter was $47 million, an increase of $13 million or 39% year-over-year. Adjusted EBITDA margin was 7.7%, a 150 basis point increase. The improvement reflects the benefit of higher sales, price realization, strong execution and restructuring savings. As expected, we had approximately $4 million of IEEPA refund benefit that was recognized in the period, offsetting tariff costs. While tariffs overall continue to be a headwind, we are making progress on offsetting the increased costs we have experienced.

Please turn to Slide 10. Net working capital ended the quarter at $612 million, down $10 million from the prior year. As a percentage of sales, net working capital improved 310 basis points to 25.7%. From a sequential perspective, our working capital increased, driven by our normal seasonality, along with higher sales and backlog impacting both accounts receivable and inventory. Moving to cash flow. We used $33 million of cash from operating activities during the quarter, primarily driven by $20 million from the increase in accounts receivable associated with the timing of the higher sales volume. Capital expenditures were $9 million, including $3 million for the rental fleet. As a result, free cash flow was a use of $42 million. We ended the quarter with $65 million of cash and total liquidity of $261 million. Our net leverage ratio was 2.7x, relatively flat from the last quarter and below our target of 3x.

Please turn to Slide 11. Looking ahead, we are raising our adjusted EBITDA and adjusted DEPS guidance for 2026. Based on our current full year forecast, we now expect adjusted EBITDA between $160 million and $175 million and adjusted DEPS between $0.90 and $1.25 per share. Shifting to free cash flow expectations. We need to generate approximately $90 million in free cash flow in the fourth quarter to hit the midpoint of our full year guidance. While we have line of sight to achieve this, the strong demand we are seeing requires investment in inventory to ensure we hit customer commitments in Q1, which puts some pressure on hitting our number. With that, I'll turn the call back to Aaron.

Aaron Ravenscroft

Thank you, Brian. Please turn to Slide 12. To conclude, I'd like to leave you with 3 key takeaways. First, our backlog positions us well to deliver a strong finish to 2026. While macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainties remain, current indications suggest a healthy environment for the lifting business in 2027. Secondly, our balance sheet positions us well for the next phase of growth. By year-end, we see our net leverage approaching 2x, maintaining financial discipline gives us flexibility to invest in our business and advance our Cranes+50 strategy while navigating the inherent cyclicality of the new crane market.

And thirdly, we believe Manitowoc has more earnings power apart from the aftermarket growth and volume. Investors frequently ask me, you've grown your aftermarket $100 million over the last couple of years, but why can't I see it on the bottom line? It's a fair question. Since COVID, volatility in our new crane business has made it difficult to distinguish cyclical performance from our significant growth in aftermarket. This distinction matters. Our less cyclical non-new machine sales carry significantly higher gross margins. Fluctuations in new crane activity, along with tariff and inflation headwinds, however, obscure those benefits in our consolidated financial results.

Please move to Slide 13. To illustrate this, we've included a bridge to compare our results in 2023 when we generated $175 million in adjusted EBITDA to our new midpoint guidance of $167.5 million. There are several important factors to consider. A, by the end of 2026, we expect to have grown our non-new machine sales approximately $100 million. We've consistently discussed gross margins of around 35% for this business.

Adjusting for SG&A, this adds roughly $25 million in adjusted EBITDA Investors always ask me, why can't I see it on the P&L? You can't see it because it has been offset by tariffs, inflation and the cyclical downturn in European towers. B, moving across the bridge, while we have implemented significant price increases to cover tariffs and inflation, we still have a lot of work to do. Even with restructuring activities and price, we still have over $30 million to go when it comes to fully offsetting inflation and tariffs. That takes us to the $167.5 million midpoint of our updated guidance. And when we can compare the current environment to 2023, we are still not yet fully recovered.

Moving to point C on the chart. We've communicated many times that EBITDA peak to trough in our Towers Europe business is $50 million. Current market conditions have us roughly at half of that. So we still have significant potential in this business to recover profits as the market continues to rebound. Lastly, on Item D, you can see that we still need to claw back $50 million of price to cover inflation and tariffs and the corresponding margin loss. As a result, our margins are well below where they otherwise would have been. Here's the bottom line. When you look at our earnings power through this lens, you can more clearly see a path to our long-term aspirational targets of $3 billion in revenue, 12% in EBITDA and 15% in ROIC.

Beyond the full rebound of the European tower crane business and the normalization of price for inflation and tariffs, crane fleets continue to age while large infrastructure projects are afoot, which should offer us greater sales volume. Additionally, we continue to target 5% annual growth in non-machine sales, and our balance sheet is retooled for acquisitions.

To close, I feel really good about our progress and where we are going. We entered the final quarter of the year with a strong backlog and healthier balance sheet. On any given day, there are always a few dark clouds somewhere in the world. But at the moment, it feels like there are more sunny days. We have navigated significant disruptions over the past 6 years and the progress we've made positions Manitowoc well for opportunities ahead. I believe the best is yet to come. With that, operator, please open the line for questions.

Operator

[Operator Instructions]

Our first question today comes from Jerry Revich with Wells Fargo.

分析師問答

Kevin Uherek

This is Kevin Uherek on for Jerry. I just had a question on, you've seen a lot of recent order momentum. And as we think about the 3Q to 4Q progression, it feels like that could support a stronger-than-normal seasonal step-up in 4Q. So I just wanted to better understand the key factors we should be considering as we think about from a top line and margin progression from 3Q to 4Q.

Aaron Ravenscroft

Yes. I mean, 4Q is always better than 3Q because of the seasonality, particularly in Europe in the summer months. But I think about year on a year-over-year basis, we had a pretty big fourth quarter last year. So that being said, October was another strong quarter, a strong month for us. We had orders of around $250 million. So we feel there's going to be good momentum as we close the year. But given the amount of volatility sometimes there's in December, it's tough to say.

Brian Regan

Yes. And I'd also say that we're still factoring in risk associated with the Strait of Hormuz. So I think when you look at our revenue range of about $100 million, that's still baking in that risk.

Kevin Uherek

Got it. And then I appreciate Slide 12 and the bridge. And I know it's early for 2027 guidance, but just wanted to understand kind of the puts and takes as we think about next year relative to that slide and then any other factors we should be cognizant of?

Aaron Ravenscroft

Yes. I think it's too early for, I mean, we're not going to give guidance for 2027 yet. I think to add more color, it would just be a little bit too early for us.

Operator

We don't appear to have any more questions. Mr. Warner, do you have any pre-submitted questions that you would like to read?

Ion Warner

Yes, we did receive them. The first question is, how are your October orders, question?

Aaron Ravenscroft

Yes. So just to repeat, our orders for October around $250 million. So another nice month.

Ion Warner

Okay. We received another question. I'll read it. Non-new machine sales were relatively flat. Can you comment on your outlook on the aftermarket business?

Aaron Ravenscroft

Yes. So as we've always said, used is lumpy. It can be lumpy. And in the third quarter, it was down $10 million year-over-year. For us, that's a couple of machines. So I don't think that's significant. That being said, though, it was nice to see the growth in our parts and service where we have much better margins. So from a profitability standpoint, it was actually a much better quarter than it would have been a year ago.

Ion Warner

Okay. The last question I got was given your leverage is below 3x, it appears you could pursue acquisitions. And can you provide us some color related to that?

Brian Regan

Yes, and I'll take that one. I think we continue to explore options relative to acquisitions. We've got a good funnel. The funnel is really focused on the aftermarket side. So we'll continue to look at that. And as we're exploring those options, we'll continue to pay down debt as a use of our capital.

Ion Warner

Okay. Those are the questions I received. In closing, please note a replay of this call will be available later this morning by accessing the Investor Relations section of our website at www.manitowoc.com. Thank you, everyone, for joining us today and for your continued interest in The Manitowoc Company. We look forward to speaking with you again next quarter.

Operator

The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.