Traeger (COOK) 2026 財年第三季法說會：營收下滑 40%，財測指引收窄

重點摘要

• Traeger 2026 財年第三季營收年減 40% 至 7,500 萬美元，反映出通路優化、市場庫存正常化、競爭壓力以及出貨時程影響。
• 調整後 EBITDA 虧損為 300 萬美元，而去年同期為獲利 1,400 萬美元。管理層表示，「Gravity 計畫」節省的成本部分抵銷了營收下降的影響。
• 今年累計自由現金流達 4,900 萬美元。季末現金為 6,800 萬美元，淨債務總額為 3.35 億美元，可用流動資金為 1.67 億美元。
• Traeger 將全年營收指引縮減至 4.4 億美元至 4.6 億美元，調整後 EBITDA 指引縮減至 5,900 萬美元至 6,500 萬美元，兩者的中位數均與先前預測保持一致。
• 在第三季延遲出貨以及勞氏 (Lowe’s) 初始庫存進貨的支撐下，管理層繼續預估第四季營收和調整後 EBITDA 將實現年成長。
• 該公司預估將於 2027 年重返獲利成長，理由是更廣泛的分銷通路、更低的庫存以及更精簡的成本結構。此展望並未假設消費者狀況會有顯著改善。

核心財務業績

毛利率承壓反映了貿易支出時點、固定倉庫槓桿率下降以及智慧溫度計業務持續面臨壓力。國際緊急經濟權力法案 (IEEPA) 的關稅退款提供了部分抵銷。

業務與營運表現

管理層表示，進貨量 (sell-in) 與零售量 (sell-through) 之間的差距，主要反映了零售商庫存正常化以及「Gravity 計畫」下的戰略通路調整。Traeger 仍預估 2026 財年戰略客戶的零售量將大致持平，且全年烤肉爐進貨量將至少持平。

消費者繼續轉向價格較低廉的產品。在戰略客戶中，價格低於 600 美元的烤肉爐今年累計零售量錄得雙位數成長。Traeger 第三季透過這些合作夥伴售出的烤肉爐數量多於去年同期，儘管產品組合轉移給平均售價帶來壓力。管理層表示，Traeger 的平均售價仍是該品類整體水準的兩倍以上。

該公司正透過包含 Westwood 和 Iron Top 在內的產品擴大其產品陣容。Westwood 在 Base 和 Excel 型號中的售價為 700 至 800 美元。管理層表示，計劃於 2027 年推出更多產品。

木顆粒燃料銷售面臨低價競爭以及零售通路獨家代理權的變化。Traeger 的應對措施是擴大木顆粒產品的供應範圍並改善門市展示。

Traeger 的網紅合作夥伴在第三季創造了超過 2.84 億次曝光量，年增超過 50%。約有半數曝光來自品牌新合作的創作者，而約 70% 的自然觸及來自尚未關注 Traeger 的消費者。該公司報告的淨推薦值 (NPS) 為 65。

勞氏 (Lowe’s) 的推廣於第三季展開。Lowes.com 於 11 月 2 日上線，木顆粒分銷安排在黑色星期五之前，實體門市的主要推廣計畫於 2027 年 2 月至 3 月在部分勞氏門市展開。管理層預估勞氏將觸及新增消費者，並提供多年的成長機會。

「Gravity 計畫」按進度將在 2026 財年創造 3,000 萬美元的增量價值，使累計捕獲價值達到 5,000 萬美元。該計畫還降低了庫存和營運成本，同時支援對零售專家、商品展示和零售商媒體網路的投資。

管理層指引

隨著貨櫃限制和亞洲颱風導致延遲的出貨被確認，加上勞氏 (Lowe’s) 初始庫存進貨量的增加，管理層預估第四季營收將實現年成長。延遲出貨所對應的營收已於 10 月發貨。

由於營收增加、倉庫與貿易支出槓桿率改善，以及直接進口占比提高，預估第四季毛利率將呈季增長趨勢。

展望 2027 年，管理層預估營收將成長且調整後 EBITDA 將擴大，即使面臨 2026 財年關稅退款所產生的高基期比較也是如此。該公司並未提供詳細的 2027 年指引。

風險與關注事項

• 2026 財年第三季的基期比較中，包含去年同期因關稅不確定性而導致零售商增加的約 2,000 萬美元高額庫存採購。
• 非必需消費者支出持續承壓，而需求正在向價格更平易近人的產品轉移。
• 低價木顆粒競爭以及通路獨家代理權的改變正在帶來短期壓力。
• 透過勞氏進行更廣泛的分銷，對看重獨家代理權的現有零售合作夥伴造成了一定的短期影響。
• 貨櫃緊張和亞洲颱風導致部分出貨從第三季延遲至第四季。
• 管理層繼續預期進入 2027 年時將面臨貨運成本上升的逆風。先前提及約 100 萬美元的影響並未發生重大變化。
• 由於 2026 財年確認了 IEEPA 關稅退款，2027 財年的業績將面臨較高的比較基期壓力。

分析師問答亮點

管理層指出，更低入門價格帶和全新零售通路是未來 12 個月內獲取新客的兩個主要驅動因素。促銷價格低至 389 美元，使 Traeger 能在保持高端定位的同時吸引新消費者。

關於勞氏 (Lowe’s)，管理層表示第四季的庫存進貨量相當顯著，更大規模的面向消費者推廣將於 2027 年春季開始。Traeger 計劃透過差異化產品、零售銷售專家及零售媒體支出，加大對勞氏、家得寶 (Home Depot) 和 Ace 的投資。

關於對第四季成長的信心，管理層指出了已轉移至 10 月的營收以及活動驅動的勞氏訂單。該公司將 2026 財年描述為谷底年份，並預期第四季將開始重返營收與獲利成長。

法說會完整逐字稿

完整財報電話會議逐字稿

管理層陳述

Operator

Hello, everyone. Thank you for joining us, and welcome to the Traeger Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions]

I will now hand the conference over to Stephanie Reed, Vice President of Finance, Strategy and Investor Relations. Stephanie, please go ahead.

Stephanie Read

Good afternoon, everyone. Thank you for joining Traeger's call to discuss its third quarter 2026 results, which were released this afternoon and can be found at our website at investors.traeger.com. I'm Stephanie Reed, Vice President of Finance, Strategy and Investor Relations at Traeger. With me on the call today are Jeremy Andrus, our Chief Executive Officer; and Joey Hord, our Chief Financial Officer.

Before we begin, let me remind you that participants on this call will make forward-looking statements based on current expectations, and those statements are subject to certain risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially. These risks and uncertainties are detailed in Traeger's reports filed with the SEC. This call also contains certain non-GAAP financial measures, including adjusted EBITDA, adjusted net income or loss adjusted net income or loss per share, free cash flow and net debt, which we believe are useful supplemental measures. The most comparable GAAP financial measures and reconciliation of the non-GAAP measures contained herein to such GAAP measures are included in our earnings release and investor presentation, which are available on the Investor Relations portion of our website at investors.traeger.com.

Now I'd like to turn the call over to Jeremy Andres, Chief Executive Officer of Traeger. Jeremy?

Jeremy Andrus

Thanks, Steph, and thank you all for joining us. As we have said all year, 2026 is a transition year for Traeger. Our third quarter revenue came in at the low end of the pacing we outlined last quarter with some activity shifting between Q3 and Q4. Joey will walk through the financial results in more detail. More importantly, there has been no change in our conviction in the progress we're making across the business. We are narrowing our revenue and adjusted EBITDA guidance ranges while maintaining the midpoint of each and reiterating our gross margin outlook.

We also continue to expect a return to year-over-year revenue and adjusted EBITDA growth in the fourth quarter. Beyond the quarter, the strategic work we've been doing throughout 2026 is increasingly translating into tangible progress. The Traeger brand is reaching new consumers. The product portfolio is addressing a broader range of price points. Lowe's expansion is moving from planning to execution and project gravity has created greater capacity to invest behind the consumer and our strategic retail partners. As we look ahead, I believe those initiatives are positioning Traeger to exit 2026 with improving momentum and enter 2027 with a stronger foundation for sustainable, profitable growth.

Let me start with the brand. One of our priorities over the last several quarters has been expanding Traeger's reach beyond our traditional audience. We've evolved our influencer strategy and increase our investment behind creators who can introduce Traeger and wood-fired cooking to new consumers. We're seeing encouraging signs of strategy is working. In Q3, our influencer partners generated more than 284 million impressions, up over 50% year-over-year, with approximately half coming from creators who are new to Traeger. And approximately 70% of our organic reach came from consumers who don't currently follow Traeger. Reach usually comes at the expense of engagement, but we are growing both.

Finally, our Net Promoter Score of 65 is the highest in the category and meaningfully above the next closest competitor. That tells us we're expanding Traeger's reach while maintaining the consumer advocacy that has always been 1 of the brand's greatest strengths. Reaching new consumers also requires having the right products to meet their needs. One of the clearest dynamics we've seen this year has been a consumer shift toward more accessible price points with double-digit growth in our year-to-date sell-through on drills below $600 across our strategic accounts.

While the shift towards lower price points creates an ASP headwind, our sell-through data shows that consumers purchase more Traeger Grill units at our strategic retail partners in the third quarter than they did a year ago. In other words, we're bringing more households into the Traeger brand even as consumers gravitate towards lower price points. Our strategy is to offer compelling products across our broader price range while preserving the quality, innovation and experience that differentiates Traeger. And the new Westwood and Iron Top families of products are good examples, bringing Traeger innovation to more accessible price points. And even with that mix shift, our ASP remains more than twice that of the overall category.

In pellets, we're seeing a similar shift toward value with increased competition at lower price points and changes in exclusivity across certain retail channels, creating near-term pressures. We're responding by expanding the availability of Traeger pellets across our retail network and improving retail presentation and visibility. Over time, we believe broader distribution together with the quality and flavored differentiation of our pellets will strengthen our position in the category. Each new Traeger household creates a longer-term relationship across pellets, accessories, future grill purchases and the broader Traeger ecosystem. That's why we view expanding the installed base as an important driver of long-term value even when the initial entry point is at a lower price.

We're also excited about our innovation pipeline. We have new products planned for launch in 2027 that will extend the Traeger experience to even more consumers and we'll share more as we get closer to launch. Making Traeger more accessible isn't only about product and price. It's also about being where consumers choose to shop. Following our announcement last quarter, we initiated our national expansion with Lowe's during Q3. Lowe's is 1 of the largest distribution expansions in Traeger's recent history. Our research tells us the Lowe's shopper is incremental to consumers we reach today. That's true by geography in markets where we've been underpenetrated, and it's true of the shopper with a strong DIY based and household mix that fits our core consumer segments.

We believe this makes Lowe's another meaningful platform for household acquisition. At the same time, our strategy is not simply about adding doors. The Home Depot and Ace remains strategically important partners, and we're continuing to invest behind both relationships. At the Home Depot, we've doubled our return on ad spend by focusing investment on higher-performing media and audiences. That's contributing to solid year-to-date sell-through performance. At Ace, we made initial investments in their retail media network this year that drove incremental returns with plans to scale that partnership in 2027. Our objective is to build a stronger marketplace for Traeger across all of our strategic retail partners. That includes better sell-through data and tools, so partner orders track more closely to consumer demand.

With broader distribution, a more complete product portfolio, and increasingly sophisticated retail execution, we believe we have more ways to reach consumers and convert them into Traeger households. Supporting all of this is the work we've done through Project Gravity. When we launched Gravity, we said the objective wasn't simply to reduce costs. It was to simplify trigger and create the capacity to invest behind the opportunities with the greatest potential to drive profitable growth. We're now beginning to put that capacity to work. We're redirecting investment towards areas that can directly support consumer acquisition and strengthen our retail execution, including expanding our retail sales specialist program, improving merchandising and fixturing and building our capabilities across retailer media networks. That's an important part of the value of Project Gravity, not simply operating with a lower cost base but directing our resources behind the opportunities we believe can drive the greatest long-term value.

As we look toward the end of 2026, we believe we will be entering 2027 from a stronger strategic position with greater capacity to invest behind growth, as sell-in and sell-through come back into alignment and these investments mature, we believe Traeger is well positioned to return to profitable growth in 2027. The macro environment remains uncertain. And while the consumer environment has weighed on discretionary spending, we believe the initiatives I've discussed today don't require a dramatically better near-term consumer environment to succeed. They require strong execution, and that's where our focus is, expanding distribution, meeting consumers across more price points, growing the installed base, showing up better at retail, and putting our resources where the returns are greatest.

We spent much of 2026 doing the difficult work to reposition the business. As we close the year, our focus increasingly shifts from repositioning the execution, translating that work into more trigger households, broader distribution and profitable growth. I'm confident in the strategy and the opportunity ahead.

With that, I'll turn the call over to Joey.

Joey Hord

Thanks, Jeremy, and good afternoon, everyone. Third quarter results reflected 3 revenue pressures we've discussed throughout the year, channel optimization under project gravity, competitive pressure and meter and our actions to improve marketplace health. The year-over-year comparison was particularly pronounced this quarter because we lapped approximately $20 million of elevated retailer inventory purchases in Q3 of last year in an uncertain tariff environment. Separately, Q3 revenue came in at the low end of the pacing we outlined last quarter due primarily to timing.

Certain shipments and promotional activity shifted from Q3 into Q4, including delays from container constraints that were amplified by a typhoon in Asia. We've already realized that revenue in October, and it is reflected in our full year outlook. On our last call, we said we expected substantially all of our remaining adjusted EBITDA to come in Q4. Our Q3 adjusted EBITDA loss of $3 million reflects that timing.

Before I walk through the numbers in more depth, I want to reinforce 3 points that provide important context for our confidence in the business. First, the divergence between sell-in and sell-through this year primarily reflects channel inventory normalization and strategic talent divestment to drive profitability. We continue to expect roughly flat '26 sell-through across our strategic accounts, which we believe indicates that underlying consumer demand is considerably healthier than reported revenue one would suggest.

Second, underlying unit trends remain healthy. We continue to expect full year Grill unit sell-in to be at least flat year-over-year, driven by a large fourth quarter that includes our initial Lowe's load-in and reflects the consumer shift towards more accessible price points that Jeremy discussed. And third, Project Gravity continues to deliver meaningful benefits across our cost structure, working capital and cash generation, as demonstrated by our year-to-date results. Taken together, these factors along with our entry into Lowe's support our expectation to return to revenue and adjusted EBITDA growth in the fourth quarter and position us to return to profitable growth in '27.

With that context, let me walk through the quarter and our outlook. Third quarter revenues decreased 40% year-over-year to $75 million. Looking at category performance, grow revenues decreased 48% to $40 million in the third quarter, reflecting the marketplace health and channel optimization actions I mentioned earlier as well as the mix shift towards more accessible price points that Jeremy discussed. Consumables revenues declined 23% to $19 million, primarily driven by lower wood pellet sales related to similar order timing and changes in retail channel dynamics. Accessories revenues decreased 34% to $16 million, primarily from lower sales of meter smart thermometers.

Gross profit for the third quarter decreased to $25 million from $49 million in the third quarter of $25 million. Gross profit margin for the third quarter contracted 520 basis points year-over-year to 33.5%, driven primarily by the timing of trade spend, deleverage of fixed warehousing expenses on lower revenue. and continued margin pressure in our meter business, partially offset by an IPA tariff refund benefit.

Sales and marketing expense declined to $14 million in the third quarter, down $6 million year-over-year. while general and administrative expenses declined $2 million year-over-year to $20 million, primarily reflecting lower employee-related expenses and actions taken under Project Gravity. Net loss was $29 million or $10.33 per diluted share compared to $90 million or $33.46 per diluted share in the prior year period. The year-over-year improvement primarily reflects the anniversary of a $75 million noncash goodwill impairment recorded last year.

Adjusted net loss was $19 million or $6.77 per diluted share compared to $22 million or $8.31 per diluted share last year. Adjusted EBITDA was a loss of $3 million, down from income of $14 million in the prior year. lower revenue pressured profitability in the quarter, the savings generated through Project Gravity meaningfully mitigated the impact and continue to support our full year adjusted EBITDA outlook.

Let me now discuss the balance sheet. We generated $8 million of free cash flow in the third quarter, bringing year-to-date free cash flow to $49 million, including $16 million related to the IEEPA refund and $12 million related to an employee retention credit discussed on prior earnings calls. At the end of the third quarter, cash and cash equivalents totaled $68 million, compared to $20 million at the end of the previous fiscal year. We ended the quarter with $403 million of total debt, resulting in total net debt of $335 million.

We ended the third quarter with a healthy liquidity position of $167 million. Our credit facilities remain completely undrawn and combined with $68 million of cash, we believe we have ample liquidity to support the business. Inventory at the quarter was $79 million, down from $99 million at year-end, primarily reflecting lower meter inventory and SKU rationalization and business simplification associated with project gravity. Combined with our free cash flow performance, this is tangible evidence of the improvements we've made in working capital efficiency.

Now turning to our fiscal '26 outlook. As we approach the end of the year and have greater visibility into our expected results, we are narrowing our revenue guidance range to $440 million to $460 million from $435 million to $465 million previously, while maintaining the same midpoint. We continue to expect gross margin of 40% to 41%. We are also narrowing our adjusted EBITDA guidance range to $59 million to $65 million, adjusted from $57 million to $67 million previously while also maintaining the same midpoint.

Our outlook continues to imply a return to year-over-year revenue growth in the fourth quarter, driven by 2 primary factors: the recovery of shipments that shifted out of Q3 and the ramp in initial load-ins associated with our Lowe's expansion. Together, these factors support both our full year revenue outlook and our expectation for year-over-year growth in Q4. We also expect gross margin to improve sequentially in Q4, supported by higher revenue driving warehousing and trade spend leverage as well as higher direct import mix, which supports our full year gross margin outlook of 40% to 41%.

We are reiterating our free cash flow guidance of at least $30 million on a year-to-date free cash flow generation of $49 million. We remain on track to deliver an incremental $30 million of value capture for Project Gravity within fiscal '26 which is consistent with prior expectations and brings the total value capture to $50 million. Importantly, we believe the impact extends beyond the $50 million. Gravity has fundamentally improved how we operate with a leaner cost structure, lower inventory and stronger cash generation. These improvements are durable and leave us with a structurally stronger financial model as we return to growth.

I want to close with how we're thinking about '27. Importantly, our expectations do not depend on the significant improvement in the consumer macroeconomic environment. We expect '27 with broader distribution, a leaner cost structure, lower inventory and a more efficient operating model, giving us multiple levers to drive improved financial performance even against a still challenging consumer backdrop. While we're not providing '27 guidance today, we believe the actions we have taken position us to return to profitable growth in we intend to maintain the same discipline around working capital, cash generation and capital allocation that we've demonstrated this year.

So Q3 was challenging from a reported revenue and earnings standpoint. We believe the underlying financial trajectory of the business is improving. We remain on track against our full year objectives and the actions we've taken this year position us for stronger growth, profitability and cash generation over time.

With that, we'll turn the call over to the operator for questions.

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Your first question comes from Phillip Blee with William Blair.

分析師問答

Phillip Blee

Jeremy, you've spoken a bit about kind of the efforts and some of the early successes you've seen in reaching a new subset of consumers -- so I guess how do you think about your ability to then convert some of those newer cohorts? What's your strategy there? And then how quickly do you think you could start to see some of those benefits flow through the P&L?

Jeremy Andrus

Phillip, thanks for your question. So a couple of thoughts on that. The first is that we've worked hard to get down to some lower price points, believing that we have the ability to still at a premium price relative to industry attract a new consumer. If you look at where gas products are priced. They tend to be lower price points on balance and in hitting as low as a $389 price point during promotion season, we feel like we're attracting a consumer who's paying up and willing to try the solution as we reach more accessible price points.

So we believe that pricing has been incremental to our customer acquisition. We are seeing growth in unit volume. We saw that, as I mentioned in my prepared remarks, in the third quarter. We also believe that our ability to attract a new consumer is partly dependent upon channel. It's one of the reasons why we are expanding channel next year. And we feel like that gives us access to both new geography, in some cases, new consumers. And then the rest of it is back to a traditional playbook in consumer products, which is really understand the consumer have a thoughtful segmentation and know how to speak to each of those consumers with a different narrative in an effort to ensure that we're we are speaking to their needs as consumers. So it's a variety of things. I would say the 2 pieces that are driving incremental customer acquisition or that will, over the next 12 months are both price and new channel.

Phillip Blee

Okay. Great. Super helpful. And then I know it's still early, but maybe can you help us think about how meaningful the Lowe's partnership could be whether or not then we should think about any net impact from any fallout with existing partners that we're looking for more exclusivity. And then just how we should think about the general ramp here, this a 2027 story? Or is this more of a 2028 story in terms of a bigger incremental top line lift?

Jeremy Andrus

Yes, sure. So the rollout in Lowe's is tracking to plan. Lowes.com was launched on November 2 launched this week. Pellets begin to reap stores ahead of Black Friday. The main launch really is the spring of '27. Somewhere between February and March, we will roll out fixtures in a subset of the Lowe's doors. We're proud of how we're merchandising the brand there. And we feel good about a long-term strategic partner that we're building with Lowe's as it gives us the ability to get to an incremental consumer, and we feel like it's -- there will be multiple years of growth. we do have a nice load-in of Lowe's in the fourth quarter of this year. That's just their seasonal load in cycle and ensuring that retail gets set in the first quarter of 2027, and we expect it to be a nice grower over many years.

In terms of the impact on other accounts, notably where exclusivity was an important part of partnership we're doubling down our efforts to ensure we are the best partners that we're bringing the right product, the right differentiation that we are focused on investments, both in-store on the ground with our retail sales specialist program and driving demand by investing in their retail media networks. There has been some near-term impact that we've discussed. And we knew that, that was going to be part of the result of the decisions that we've made. But we really believe that if we build the brand and the product experience, the right way for our end consumer, and we show up as great partners that we can earn that business back.

We really do believe that on balance, this is an opportunity to get to more consumers. We know that we need to continue to service all of our current channel as effectively as we can, and we will be making incremental investments in those channels. because of scale and because we're adding new channels. So we feel over time, it's a net positive. There are certainly -- there are some near-term bumps that we'd anticipated and which are inherent in our guidance, but we think it's -- we continue to believe it's the right thing for us and that it's the right thing for our channels as it gives us the scale to invest in product innovation brand and the overall go-to-market experience.

Operator

Your next question comes from Joe Feldman with TAG.

Joseph Feldman

I wanted to just clarify, with regard to the pricing that you got and adjustments you've made, is that across the line of products? Or is it really just that the more entry-priced product that you have there in the stores?

Jeremy Andrus

Yes, Joe. So we have been really trying to get to lower price points and doing that by finding efficiencies of scale and efficiencies in the supply chain through avenues such as direct import, so that we can really take cost out and offer a better price and more value to the consumer. The intent of our product line is to create trade-up stories across the line and compelling reasons for a consumer to buy in the price range and in the feature set that they're looking for.

And so as we step back and think about the line getting to opening price point serves a very specific purpose, and that purpose is to acquire an incremental consumer. As we build the features and the benefits across the line, the intent is to meet a consumer where they are to ensure that we're offering as much innovation, quality and value at a price point. And then it's on us to be good at product marketing to really articulate to a consumer why they should spend more to have a better product experience. Our strategy is always to build innovation at premium price points and then cascade that innovation downstream over the course of many product launches.

Westwood is a product that we began to launch mid last year. We've got a lot of work to do to take it to channel in this upcoming year, it hits an accessible price point at $700 and $800 between Westwood Base and Westwood Excel. It has innovation. It's a connected grill. It's got new features and benefits. And we believe there's a compelling reason to trade up from the opening price point, our first-generation Pro up into the Westwood. And it's with that mindset that we're always building our product strategy. So as we bring old technology at scale down to lower price points, it gives us the ability to introduce better experiences at higher price points.

Joseph Feldman

That's really helpful explanation. And then just if I could follow up with one more. Can you talk a little bit about what you're seeing in terms of fuel and transportation costs and the impact there? We're hearing about that from so many companies these days. And I know you guys obviously have a large heavy equipment that you're shipping across the ocean. So maybe you could talk a little bit about that impact. .

Joey Hord

Yes. Joe, it's Joey. So we are absolutely subject to increase in fuel cost, et cetera. We on the previous call, I believe we referenced sort of a $1 million headwind. Keep in mind that, that's materially not changing as fuel rates have fluctuated over the past few months. Keep in mind that most of our freight is long term in Asia from a contract standpoint. So we do believe that there is going to be a headwind as we enter '27. We planned for it -- as of right now, we are appropriately building our freight rates and our increased rates into our guidance for full year.

Operator

Your next question comes from Brian McNamara with Canaccord Genuity.

Unknown Analyst

This is [ Madison Calnan ] on for Brian. Acknowledging timing impacts optically, it looks like another top line miss -- what gives you confidence that Q4 and then 2027 will be the return to growth that the market has been anticipating for some time now? .

Joey Hord

Yes, I'll take that one. So thanks for the question. So first off, I think Q3, what we're experiencing is just a tough comp year-over-year. So if you go back to FY '25, there were some pacing dynamics driven by the tariff environment. where Q2 revenue paced into Q3 and Q4 paced into Q3 as well. And then we did have that onetime order in Q3 as well, which buoyed the results. So overall, the comparison was tough. Q3 in FY '25 was the only quarter we grew. As far as the confidence a year, we have had revenue flip from Q3 into Q4 that was driven by a onetime event regarding shipping container availability via which I prepared in my opening remarks via a typhoon. that revenue has already shipped and in October.

And then additionally, just what gives us confidence is the addition of Lowe's. Most of our revenue in Q4 is event-driven regarding orders for a load behind loads. And that's why really we've tightened the range top line and bottom line.

Operator

Your next question comes from Peter Benedict with Baird.

Peter Benedict

Joey, I don't know if you -- if you'd be willing to kind of put a number on maybe the shift in sales from the, I guess, the typhoon shipment issue 3Q to 4Q, it even and even on the lows selling, just so we get a sense for just the magnitude there. And then as we think about the growth next year, the profit growth, so you're saying that you think you guys can grow your EBITDA next year even as you're cycling kind of the tariff refunds that you're getting this year, I just want to clarify that's what you're saying. And then can you give us a sense of maybe what that tariff refund was in this quarter? I know it wasn't huge, but just curious what that -- when that number was .

Joey Hord

Okay. So the timing shift, I mean, you could probably just do the stop math on it and figure out based on where we landed in the factor reiterating guidance what this timing shift was on that. it was material, and we did not guide to Q3, but we did speak about the shaping of the P&L. As far as the low size, it is material for us. It is -- there is a meaningful load- in Q4. It's event-driven. And it is driving what we're considering or return to growth. We referred to this as a trough year. We do believe that Q4 just implied in the guidance is going to be return to growth and profitable growth. And that's really going to be the start of quarter-over-quarter growth within FY '27. We're obviously not guiding to that yet, but we are excited about the partnership. We're excited about the product and innovation order offering at more accessible price points. And we do think that's going to be a nice tailwind as we deliver growth and profitable growth in Q4.

As far as the tariff refund, we have talked about the 16.5% approximately IEEPA tariff refund. We've collected nearly 100% of it. It's currently in our guidance. So that does create a headwind when we think about FY '27 and copying that versus FY '26. At the same time, we are deliberately talking about a return to growth and expansion of EBITDA next year, I mean that we do believe, even with the tough comparison when you normalize for the tariff refund, we are going to be driving both top line and bottom line growth.

Operator

[Operator Instructions] There are no further questions at this time. This concludes today's call. Thank you for attending. You may now disconnect.