Havertys (HVT) 2026 年第三季法說會：銷售成長與調升利潤率指引

重點提要

• Havertys 公布 2026 年第三季淨銷售額為 2.032 億美元，年增 4.5%，同店銷售額則成長 4.1%。
• 受惠於 320 萬美元的關稅退款，毛利率擴增 200 個基點至 62.3%。若扣除關稅退款，毛利率則為 60.7%。
• 稀釋後每股盈餘 (EPS) 從 0.28 美元升至 0.39 美元。若扣除關稅退款，淨利為 400 萬美元，或稀釋後每股 0.25 美元。
• 客流量下降中個位數百分比，但轉換率保持穩定，且平均單客消費金額上升 7.4%，主因為價格調整。
• 管理層將 2026 年毛利率指引上調至 61.3%-61.5%，但由於配送、運輸及第三方信用成本增加，調升了變動銷售、一般與管理費用 (SG&A) 的展望。
• Havertys 在本季末擁有 1.203 億美元現金，無有息負債，且循環信貸額度尚有 1 億美元可用。

核心財務數據

SG&A 佔銷售額的比重從 57.8% 升至 58.6%。傭金制薪酬、第三方信用成本、股票酬勞、績效獎金及團體保險費用的增加推升了該費用。管理層表示，一般與管理費用 (G&A) 的增加中有約 200 萬美元反映了股票獎勵加速歸屬，短期內不應再次發生。

業務與營運表現

本季客流量下降中個位數百分比，但穩定的轉換率與平均單客消費金額上升 7.4% 支撐了銷售成長。管理層指出，價格調整仍是平均單客消費金額提高的主要驅動力，而每單商品件數則大致持平。

設計師業務成長 4%，佔總業務的 34.6%。設計師平均單客消費金額成長 7.2%。客製化訂單成長 16.9%，佔軟墊傢俱銷售額的 31.4%。

依類別看，簽單軟墊傢俱銷售額成長中個位數百分比。茶幾及偶用傢俱、臥室與餐廳傢俱銷售額成長低個位數百分比，床墊與居家裝飾則下降低個位數百分比。隨著網站自然流量改善，簽單電子商務銷售額再次實現雙位數成長。

庫存從第二季末的 1.005 億美元降至第三季末的 8670 萬美元。管理層表示降幅過大，預計年底庫存將維持在 9000 萬至 1 億美元之間，以滿足客戶交貨預期。

Havertys 在第三季末擁有 129 家門市，預計 2026 年底將達到 133 家。該公司在本季進駐維吉尼亞州弗德里克斯堡 (Fredericksburg)，並表示該門市的客流量與銷售量均超出預期。在匹茲堡開店標誌著進入第 18 個州，而第四季的其他活動包括在麥金尼 (McKinney)、斯內爾維爾 (Snellville)、貝敦 (Baytown) 和里奇蒙 (Richmond) 新設或搬遷門市。

管理層財測指引

Havertys 預計 2026 年毛利率為 61.3%-61.5%，因關稅退款而上調了先前的預測。該預測包含了截至 2026 年 11 月 4 日生效的關稅，但排除間接採購產品未來可能獲得的退款。

固定與裁量性 SG&A 預計保持在 3.07 億至 3.09 億美元之間。變動 SG&A 目前預計為 19.2%-19.4%，反映出與燃料相關的高昂配送和運輸費用以及第三方信用成本上升。

管理層將 2026 年預計資本支出維持在 3400 萬美元。其中包含 2770 萬美元用於新開或替換門市、改裝與擴建，320 萬美元用於物流配送網路，以及約 310 萬美元用於資訊科技。預計有效稅率保持在 26%，不含股票獎勵歸屬影響及潛在的新稅法。

風險與關注領域

• 由於船用燃料油成本上升，貨櫃運費已上漲 25%-30%，而柴油價格高達每加侖約 6 美元，對配送、運輸和材料費用造成壓力。
• LIFO 庫存成本、醫療保險與消費者融資成本持續上升。Havertys 正縮減主要促銷期之外的長期零利率優惠方案，並對零售價格進行選擇性調整。
• 公司正密切關注 232 條款關稅對軟墊木製傢俱可能產生的變化，以及美越互惠關稅安排的不確定性。
• 貨櫃供應量、美國海關暨邊境保護局 (CBP) 的加強檢查、越南勞工供應狀況以及 2027 年 1 月 1 日起越南法定調漲 7% 工資，可能會延長交貨時間。
• 管理層表示，目前供應鏈中斷情況極小，但將在 2027 年初農曆新年前夕持續觀察狀況。

分析師問答重點

管理層報告第三季趨勢無顯著區域差異。公司將平均單客消費金額的大幅增加主要歸因於價格調整，並認為將設計方案參與率從大約 17% 的客戶群擴大至約 25% 具備進一步潛力。

在選舉相關政治廣告擠佔了部分電視廣告時段後，Havertys 計劃在第四季剩餘時間及 2027 年繼續保持積極的行銷策略。管理層並未量化該影響。

關於消費者財務健康狀況，Havertys 表示融資核准率保持強勁。在採用 Synchrony 融資方案的顧客中，信用分數超過 750 分的門市申請者獲批率接近 90%。約有三分之一的顧客使用 Synchrony 融資服務。

公司正透過選擇性調漲價格以及收緊促銷融資控制來抵銷通膨壓力。管理層表示目前不考慮提高客戶配送費。

完整法說會逐字稿

完整財報電話會議逐字稿

管理層陳述

Operator

Welcome to the Havertys Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Call. [Operator Instructions] Please note, this conference is being recorded. I will now turn the conference over to Tiffany Hinkle, Assistant Vice President of Financial Reporting and Investor Relations. Thank you, Tiffany. You may begin.

Tiffany Hinkle

Thank you, operator. Good morning, and thank you for joining us for our third quarter earnings call. I'm here today with our President and CEO, Steve Burdette; and Executive Vice President and CFO, Richard Hare. Before we begin, I'd like to remind everyone that today's conference call may contain forward-looking statements, which are subject to risks and uncertainties.

Actual results may differ materially from those made or implied in such statements, which we speak only as of the date they are made and which we undertake no obligation to publicly update or revise. Factors that could cause actual results to differ include economic and competitive conditions and other uncertainties detailed in the company's reports filed with the SEC.

We will also refer to certain non-GAAP financial measures. Reconciliations to the most comparable GAAP measures are included in our earnings release. A replay of this call will be available on our Investor Relations website this afternoon. For commentary about our business, I will now turn the call over to Steve.

Steven Burdette

Thank you, Tiffany. Good morning, and thank you for joining our 2026 third quarter conference call. Q3 was another strong quarter with increases in written and delivered comp sales against tougher year-over-year comps. Net sales were $203.2 million, up 4.5% with comp sales up 4.1%. Total written sales increased 2.8% with written comp sales up 2.3%. Additional tariff refunds received during the quarter contributed to gross margin expanding to 62.3% compared with 60.3% last year.

Pretax income was $8.6 million or 4.2% of sales compared with $6.4 million or 3.3% of sales a year ago. Earnings per share was $0.39 versus $0.28 a year ago. Richard will discuss the impact of tariff refunds on gross margins, higher interest rates on credit costs, increase in stock expenses and higher oil prices on delivery, transportation and material costs.

Quarterly traffic declined by mid-single digits, but conversion rates held steady and average ticket rose 7.4%. Written sales varied monthly with the Labor Day event calendar shift. Our July 4 weekend sales started slowly with traffic and sales down during the first 6 days.

The decline can be attributed to many nationwide celebrations of our country's 250th anniversary and July 4 itself falling on a Saturday. Traffic and written sales improved through the rest of July with written sales ending the month up 5.1%.

Given the 1-week calendar shift in Labor Day, we believe August and September are best viewed together. Across those 2 months, traffic remained down mid-single digits, while business increased 1.7%. The 2-week Labor Day event experienced weaker traffic, but we were able to end the 2-week promotion with flat sales compared to last year due to a strong average ticket and steady conversion rates.

Our designer business grew 4% for the quarter, accounting for 34.6% of our business with designer average ticket growing 7.2%. Custom orders rose to 31.4% of our upholstery business, increasing 16.9% over last year. From a category perspective, our written business saw upholstery rise mid-single digits with occasional, bedroom and dining up low single digits and mattresses and decor were down low single digits.

Our merchandising and supply chain teams continue to push to bring in new exciting projects -- products across the merchandise assortment. We are hearing that container availability, Custom Border Protection's enhanced inspections and in Vietnam, the labor availability, along with the government's required 7% wage increase on January 1, 2027, are becoming issues.

We are seeing lead times getting pushed out but we have seen minimal impact on our partners and our supply chain network at this point. As we approach Chinese New Year in early 2027, we will be watching closely for any further disruptions and adjust our ordering patterns accordingly.

Our inventories dropped from $100.5 million at the end of Q2 to $86.7 million at the end of Q3. The efforts by our supply chain to get control of our inventories took a pendulum swing too far during the quarter. We expect to end the year somewhere between $90 million and $100 million, depending on product flow and sales. This is the level of inventory needed to meet our customers' delivery expectations.

Regarding tariffs, all things remain consistent from Q2 with the new Section 301 tariffs implemented in July. However, we are waiting for confirmation from the administration if Section 232 tariffs on upholstered wood furniture will go from 25% to 30% effective January 1, 2027.

Also, we are hearing rumors that the governments of Vietnam and the U.S. have had meetings to finalize the reciprocal agreement between the countries that would remove the current Section 301 tariff of 12.5% imposed in July for a potential higher tariff percentage.

We will make the necessary targeted adjustments in our pricing if these changes occur, but we'll not get ahead of ourselves as this is a fluid situation. As discussed on our Q2 conference call, bunker fuel rates remain high, causing a 25% to 30% increase in our container rates. Diesel fuel at roughly $6 per gallon impacts home delivery and transportation costs as well as material costs, which are up mid-single digits.

LIFO costs are not slowing. Health insurance costs continue to rise and credit costs are becoming more expensive due to usage and interest rate increases. The tariff refunds of $3.2 million helped to offset some of these increases during the quarter.

Our ability to leverage these increases is becoming more difficult in this environment. However, we continue to get more from our marketing spend, which was slightly lower for the quarter. Organic traffic to our site keeps improving, driving double-digit growth in written e-commerce sales for another quarter.

To stay competitive, we continue to offer aggressive no-interest credit promotions such as 48-month and 60-month terms during the promotional periods. But we are implementing tighter controls on their use outside of the promotional periods by raising the average ticket amounts allowed for each promotion.

Our use of AI continues to expand into more customer-facing areas, including customer chat, sales and designer interfaces, marketing, supply chain and home delivery. We believe this helps our team quickly share the most relevant and accurate information with customers, creating a better overall experience.

Ultimately, the way we engage with every customer along their journey creates unmatched value and sets Havertys apart from our competition. We ended the quarter with 129 stores. During the quarter, we opened a new market in Fredericksburg, Virginia, which we are pleased to report is outperforming our traffic and volume expectations.

We plan to open 5 new stores in Q4 and close one that will be a relocation. McKinney, Texas, a suburb of Dallas opened October 30. Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania will be opening tomorrow, marking our entry into our 18th state. Snellville, Georgia, a suburb of Atlanta will be relocated to a larger and better location next week and Baytown and Richmond, Texas, both suburbs of Houston, opened in late November and early December, giving us 5 stores in the market.

Also, we finalized the closing of our College Station, Texas store on August 31. The ongoing refresh of our mattress departments and design centers remains on track for completion in all stores in 2027. These improvements provide us with big opportunities to grow these 2 important categories.

We will continue to evaluate our existing leases and locations so that we are reinvesting our capital to create the biggest return for our shareholders. We expect to end the year with 133 stores, and we have several new stores in lease negotiations for 2027 that we hope to be able to announce on our next call.

We are optimistic about finishing the year strong. While many headwinds remain, today, we have turned the page on what we believe has been our biggest headwind over the last few months, the midterm elections. Hotly contested races in Florida, Texas, Georgia, North Carolina and South Carolina, where roughly 2/3 of our stores are located, created disruptions in our marketing plans.

More broadly, the news cycle over the last 60 days across our entire footprint was a disruption, but the elections are over. As the country moves forward, we expect our customers to quickly put the midterms behind them and focus on their future.

Looking ahead, our optimism rests on 4 things: first, our people, who share the belief that we must outserve our competition. Second, our design program, which inspires customers and gives them confidence in their decisions with tremendous upside potential. Third, our organic store growth strategy of opening 5 stores a year, which further strengthens and expands the brand; and fourth, our execution with roughly 2,400 team members across 18 states whose hard work, dedication and passion for serving customers, fellow team members and shareholders is contagious and appreciated. I will now turn the call over to Richard.

Richard Hare

Thank you, Steve, and good morning. In the third quarter of 2026, net sales were $203.2 million, a 4.5% increase over the prior year quarter. Comparable store sales were up 4.1% over the prior year period. Our gross profit margin increased 200 basis points to 62.3% from 60.3%. Excluding the impact of approximately $3.2 million in tariff refunds recognized in the quarter, our gross profit margin was 60.7% in the third quarter of 2026 compared to 60.3% in the prior year quarter.

Further, excluding the impact of LIFO, a $1 million expense in the third quarter of 2026 and a $624,000 expense in the prior year quarter, our adjusted gross profit margin was 61.3% in the third quarter of 2026 and 60.6% in the prior year quarter.

Selling, general and administrative expenses increased $6.7 million or 6% to $119 million. As a percentage of sales, these costs approximated 58.6% of sales, up from 57.8% in the prior year's quarter. We experienced an increase in selling expense of $1.8 million, primarily due to higher commission-based compensation and third-party credit costs and an increase in administrative expenses of $4.1 million, primarily from stock-based compensation subject to acceleration recognition, performance-based incentive compensation and increased group insurance costs.

Other income expense in the third quarter of 2026 was $20,000 and interest income was approximately $983,000 in the third quarter of 2026. Income before interest and income taxes increased $2.3 million to $7.6 million. Our tax expense was $2.2 million for the third quarter of 2026, which resulted in an effective tax rate of 26% versus 26.4% in the prior year period.

The primary difference in the effective tax rate and the statutory rate is due to state income taxes and the impact of vesting on stock awards. Net income for the third quarter of 2026 was $6.3 million or $0.39 per diluted share on our common stock compared to net income of $4.7 million or $0.28 per share in the comparable quarter last year.

During the third quarter, we recognized approximately $3.2 million in tariff refunds related to our indirect import programs as a reduction in cost of sales. Year-to-date through September 30, 2026, we have received approximately $5.4 million in tariff refunds related to our direct and indirect programs, of which $4.7 million was recorded as a reduction to cost of goods sold, $170,000 was recorded as a reduction to inventory and $67,000 was recorded as interest income and the remainder was rebated to certain supplier partners.

Excluding the impact of the tariff refunds on our income statement, our net income for the quarter was $4 million or $0.25 per diluted share. Now turning to our balance sheet. At the end of the third quarter, our inventories were $86.7 million, which was down $9.5 million from December 31, 2025, and down $5.7 million versus Q3 of 2025.

At the end of the third quarter, our customer deposits were $46.2 million, which was up $10.7 million from December 31, 2025, and up $2.4 million from Q3 2025. We ended the quarter with $120.3 million of cash and cash equivalents. We have no funded debt on our balance sheet at the end of the third quarter of 2026, and we have credit availability of $100 million under our revolving credit facility.

Looking at some of the cash flow usage, capital expenditures totaled $23 million in the first 9 months of 2026, and we paid out $15.8 million of regular dividends year-to-date. We did not participate in our share repurchase program during the third quarter of 2026. On August 7, 2026, our Board of Directors authorized an additional $15 million of buyback capacity.

We have approximately $16.0 million of remaining authorization under our buyback program. Our earnings release list out several additional forward-looking statements indicating our future expectations of certain financial metrics. I will highlight a few, but please refer to our press release for additional commentary.

Our 2026 guidance includes tariffs currently in effect as of November 4, 2026, but excludes any future tariff refunds that may be received from indirectly sourced products. We are closely monitoring the tariff developments to manage our exposure and minimize the impact on our business.

As a reminder, the following guidance is for calendar year 2026. When we release our Q4 earnings, we will provide 2027 guidelines. We expect our gross margins for 2026 to be between 61.3% and 61.5%, which is an increase in our previous guidance due to the receipt of tariff refunds.

We anticipate gross profit margins will be impacted by our current estimates of product, freight and LIFO expenses. Our fixed and discretionary type SG&A expenses for 2026 are expected to remain in the $307 million to $309 million range. The variable type costs within SG&A for 2026 are expected to be in the range of 19.2% to 19.4%, which is an increase from our prior guidance due to higher delivery and transportation costs associated with higher fuel prices and increased third-party credit costs.

Our planned CapEx for 2026 remains at $34 million. Anticipated new or replacement stores, remodels and expansions account for $27.7 million. Investments in our distribution network are expected to be $3.2 million and investments in our information technology are expected to be approximately $3.1 million. Our anticipated effective tax rate for 2026 remains at 26%.

This projection excludes the impact of vesting of stock awards and any potential new tax legislation. This completes my financial commentary on the third quarter results. Operator, we would like to open the call for questions at this time.

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Our first question is from Anthony Lebiedzinski from Sidoti & Co.

分析師問答

Anthony Lebiedzinski

Certainly nice to see another quarter of sales and earnings growth here in 3Q. So I know you touched on a little bit as far as trends during the quarter. Were there any notable regional differences that you saw as you progressed from July through September? I'm just curious about that.

Steven Burdette

Not anything is notable, Anthony, that we've seen. I mean it's pretty much across the board, we're seeing the effect. Some are more so than the others, but nothing notable.

Anthony Lebiedzinski

Got you. And then in terms of the average ticket going up, how much of that you think was due to pricing versus unit volumes or mix? And do you think these average ticket increases are sustainable?

Steven Burdette

I'm still going to say it's probably still driven by price. We did see our units stay fairly flat per ticket overall, but we saw a little decrease in our designer deals on the unit numbers there. So I'm still going to say it's driven by price majority on that.

We do think there's opportunity to continue to maintain that and grow that with our design business as we want to try to grow that from being in that 17% range or so of customers that are participating and driving that upwards to the 25% or so that we think that will certainly will drive more of the average ticket will be a big contributor to that success.

Anthony Lebiedzinski

Got you. And then, Steve, you also mentioned in your remarks about just all the disruptions with the midterm elections, advertising and marketing spending. Can you perhaps give us some little bit more details as far as how disruptive you think this might have been? I mean October is typically not a seasonally strong month for furniture buying. But I mean, if you could just maybe kind of give us some color whether this was similar to the last election 2 years ago? Was it -- anything else you can add to that, that would be very helpful.

Steven Burdette

Yes. I'm not going to talk about October. So we're talking about Q3 on side of this. What we know so far, and it's still early, you know the political ads take precedence on any TV, and so you can get bumped with what you have. We have -- we saw that in the July 4 a little bit. We haven't gotten all the information for Labor Day yet on what happened there, but we suspect it was even more so or more prevalent during that time period as well.

But we will know that shortly in the next probably 30 to 45 days.

So as far as comparing it to 2024, I think this was very contentious. It was the biggest spend of any midterm ever. I think I heard a number of $12 billion was spent in advertising. I could be wrong, I heard that. So it definitely created -- I think there was a lot, as I talked about, a lot of anxiety, not just in the 5 states that make up 2/3 of our stores, but across the whole footprint. I mean there was anxiety.

You couldn't turn on an ad that you were hearing something -- and that doesn't matter what side of the aisle you're on. There was just a lot of anxiety of what was going to happen. But as I said in my comments, it's over. And there is no questions, and we don't have to worry about it. It's not lingering. We're going to move forward, and I think our customers will as well.

Operator

Our next question is from Cristina Fernández with Telsey Advisory Group.

Cristina Fernandez

I wanted to follow up on this -- the last topic. You mentioned the midterms had an impact on your marketing expense and that it was down year-over-year. With the midterms behind now, do you plan to increase marketing expense in the fourth quarter? Or how are you thinking about using that as a lever to drive sales going forward?

Steven Burdette

Yes, Cristina, we've been pretty consistent with it all year. What we don't know is what didn't run. And that's the part I don't know in September. We get that after the fact and get credits back on that. So I'm covering with you what our expense was and what was planned.

What we are suspecting and what we've seen from July 4, that was more prevalent probably in Labor Day as the ads started ramping up that we were getting pushed out. So that's really kind of us thinking through it. I don't know it yet, but we're expecting that and all indications lead to that. So I can't quantify it.

Going forward, we're going to continue to push and promote. Obviously, we were -- as we look forward, we know the elections were only ramping up in October. That's behind us now. We've got Veterans Day and after Thanksgiving, we got moving into New Year's and after Christmas sales. So we will be back active and very aggressive to push through the remainder of Q4 and then head into 2027.

Cristina Fernandez

And on your prepared remarks, you cited a number of inflationary pressures. As you look ahead, are there any levers you can pull to offset these costs? Like, for example, do you plan to make changes in pricing, perhaps your delivery fees or change your financing offers? How are you looking at offsetting some of these costs to the extent you can?

Steven Burdette

Yes. I mentioned on the credit costs, we're looking to try to offset those by in the off promotional periods and looking at increasing the average ticket and where they can be used. And hopefully, that can lower that. LIFO costs are hitting us, and that's real. That's about material increases that are coming.

From those, we are making selective pricing changes, retail pricing changes, in order for us to maintain our margins and where we're going. And that would apply to also the bunker fuel. I hope the bunker fuel and diesel fuel increases will subside, but we've got to get this war behind us, I believe, before we're ever going to see that. And so that's kind of an unknown as to how long that's going to last at this point.

We are not entertaining right now any increases in delivery fees at this point to our customers as we move forward. So health insurance costs, I mean, those are coming at us and it will continue. Hopefully, we get a better performance going into next year, but that's just about the health of our team members and how well we're taking care of ourselves as we go forward.

Obviously, we're trying to promote that internally and make sure everybody is as healthy as they can be. So -- there's not a lot, as I told you, it's more difficult to leverage this, Cristina, on these costs as we go forward. We've got to produce volume to create the leverage on some of these ones that we're dealing with.

Cristina Fernandez

Yes. No, understood. And then lastly, just kind of big picture on your specific consumer. Up until recently, this consumer more affluent was in good health financially. Do you still feel like that's the case and the behavior you saw in the third quarter was a bit more temporary? Or how do you think this consumer is financially and their propensity to spend as you look at the next, let's say, 6 to 12 months?

Richard Hare

Cristina, just a couple of things on that. From what we're seeing from Synchrony who has the credit statistics on our consumers, about 1/3 of which use Synchrony to finance their product. We continue to see very strong approval rates, above 750 credit scores, almost 90% approval in stores.

So our consumer is holding up well. I just -- my personal opinion is there's some angst about the elections. That's behind us. The market is up today, which tells me the market thinks it's a good thing that all of it is behind us, and we're looking forward to the future.

I also want to just point out one other thing on G&A costs. About $2 million of the G&A cost increase related to accelerated vesting of stock awards, and that's just because certain individuals reach a certain age within the company. So that's more of a one-off. So all the increase is not permanent. At least $2 million of that is temporary and should not repeat itself in the near term.

Operator

We have reached the end of the question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the floor back over to Tiffany Hinkle for closing comments.

Tiffany Hinkle

Thank you for your participation in today's call. We look forward to talking to you in the future when we release our fourth quarter results. Have a great day, everyone.

Operator

This concludes today's teleconference. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation.