Ferroglobe (GSM) 2026 年第三季法說會：1 億美元成本計畫

重點摘要

• 2026 年第三季營收季減 2% 至 3.7 億美元，總出貨量下滑 3% 至 183,000 噸。營收較 2025 年第三季成長 19%。
• 調整後 EBITDA 為負 200 萬美元，相比之下 2026 年第二季為正 1,300 萬美元。管理層將近 1,900 萬美元的壓力歸因於能源成本上漲，並估計若扣除該影響，調整後 EBITDA 原本約為 1,600 萬美元。
• Ferroglobe 產生了 2,600 萬美元的營業現金流和 600 萬美元的自由現金流，主要受惠於 3,200 萬美元的營運資金釋出。
• 管理層啟動了一項降本計劃，預計在完全實施後將使年度 EBITDA 增加約 1 億美元（上下浮動 15%）。該計劃包括關閉五座工廠、將產能利用率從不足 60% 提高至約 80%，並裁減約 20% 的員工。
• 該公司在本季度開始商業化出貨鉬鐵，並預計在第四季進一步出貨，同時啟動釩鐵和鉻鐵的首次商業出貨。
• 管理層預計第四季仍將面臨挑戰，主要受能源成本高企及歐洲矽鐵市場疲軟影響，但貿易保護措施及預期的 2027 年鋼鐵需求成長可能會對核心市場形成支撐。

關鍵財務數據

業務與營運表現

金屬矽

營收為 1.02 億美元。出貨量因季節性因素季減 6% 至 38,000 噸，但較 2025 年第三季成長 14%。平均售價上漲 3% 至每噸約 2,669 美元。

該部門調整後 EBITDA 從第二季的負 300 萬美元微幅改善至負 200 萬美元。由於北美能源和電極價格上漲，每噸成本增加 3%。

本季美國金屬矽指數價格上漲 10%，歐洲上漲 6%。管理層表示，隨著公司持續進行 2027 年合約談判，客戶的意願正持續提升。

矽基合金

營收下滑至 1.17 億美元，出貨量季減 6% 至 59,000 噸。實際實現售價大致持平於每噸 1,973 美元。

調整後 EBITDA 從第二季的正 1,500 萬美元（包含西班牙 500 萬美元的訴訟收益）降至負 200 萬美元。歐洲高企的能源成本與較弱的固定成本吸收是造成大部分下滑的原因。

管理層指出，公司避免以無利可圖的價格在歐洲增加額外銷量。庫存過剩與進口量居高不下繼續施壓市場，歐洲矽鐵指數今年以來已下跌 16%。

錳基合金

營收增加至 1.14 億美元。出貨量季增 1% 至 86,000 噸，平均售價上揚 5% 至每噸 1,330 美元。

調整後 EBITDA 為 1,100 萬美元，相較於第二季的 1,300 萬美元。每噸成本的增加中有 85% 來自能源，主要在西班牙。

關鍵材料與貿易保護

Ferroglobe 提早於原本的年終目標，啟動了鉬鐵的商業出貨。公司還計劃在確定更廣泛的市場推廣計畫之前，針對釩鐵、低碳鉻鐵和硼鐵進行工業級驗證。

該公司預計於 11 月向美國政府提交最終的關鍵材料提案，談判預計於 2027 年初開始，並在第一季末前結束。

在歐洲，歐盟委員會於 9 月 1 日開始對中國進口金屬矽進行中期反傾銷複查，並於 10 月 23 日下令進行進口登記。管理層表示，進口登記可遏制囤貨行為，並允許反傾銷措施追溯適用。在美國，針對澳大利亞和挪威案件做出最終裁決後，金屬矽指數上漲了 10%。

管理層展望

• 管理層預計，降本計劃在完全實施後將使年度 EBITDA 增加約 1 億美元（上下浮動 15%）。
• 重組目標是將產能利用率從目前的不足 60% 提升至約 80%，並在總部與營運職位中裁減約 20% 的人力。
• 公司的目標是在 18 個月內減少 3,000 萬至 4,000 萬美元的營運資金，並降低未來的資本支出。扣除目標營運資金的減少金額後，預計實施成本總計為 4,000 萬至 6,000 萬美元。
• 管理層預計第四季營運資金不會有重大變化，並預期資本支出將較第三季顯著下降。
• 受能源成本高企及歐洲矽鐵市場疲軟影響，預計第四季仍將面臨挑戰。
• Ferroglobe 正申請重啟委內瑞拉業務相關最終協議所需的外國資產控制辦公室 (OFAC) 執照。管理層表示執照可能很快獲得，但穩定的電力供應仍是核心要求。

風險與關注焦點

• 居高不下的能源成本（特別是在西班牙）使第三季調整後 EBITDA 減少了將近 1,900 萬美元，預計第四季仍將是一項挑戰。
• 歐洲矽鐵價格持續面臨庫存過剩與進口量居高不下的壓力。
• 重組計劃需要在適用情況下與員工代表進行協商，扣除目標營運資金減少額後的預期實施成本為 4,000 萬至 6,000 萬美元。
• 重啟委內瑞拉業務取決於取得 OFAC 執照以及取得穩定的電力供應。
• 在通過工業級生產驗證之前，新型關鍵材料的商業出貨量仍存在不確定性。
• 歐洲潛在的追溯性反傾銷措施尚未做出決定。

分析師問答亮點

管理層表示，計劃關閉五座工廠旨在將生產集中在最具競爭力的據點，並將利用率提升至接近 80%。Ferroglobe 已宣布封存其位於南非的 Emalahleni 和 Polokwane 工廠，但由於仍需與權益關係人進行協商，尚未透露其他受影響的設施。

在委內瑞拉方面，管理層表示已展開協商以支援加速重啟。電力穩定度是主要的營運問題，而取得 OFAC 執照是在敲定任何最終協議之前的必要條件。

在關鍵材料方面，Ferroglobe 已恢復生產鉬鐵，並正在進行或計劃進行釩鐵、低碳鉻鐵與硼鐵的試產運作。管理層指出，在工業級驗證完成前，要提供第四季或 2027 年的出貨預期還為時過早。

關於歐洲的貿易行動，管理層解釋稱，對中國進口金屬矽進行登記可以防止裁決前大量囤貨，並為未來追溯徵收關稅創造可能性。

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管理層陳述

Operator

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to Ferroglobe's Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Call. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, this conference call may be recorded.

I would now like to turn the call over to Alex Rotonen, Ferroglobe's Vice President of Investor Relations. You may begin.

Alex Rotonen

Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining Ferroglobe's third quarter 2026 conference call. Joining me today are Marco Levi, our Chief Executive Officer; and Beatriz Garcia-Cos, our Chief Financial Officer.

Before we get started with some prepared remarks, I'm going to read a brief statement. Please turn to Slide 2 at this time. Statements made by management during this conference call that are forward-looking are based on current expectations. Factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those forward-looking statements can be found in Ferroglobe's most recent SEC filings and the exhibits to those filings, which are available at ferroglobe.com.

In addition, this discussion includes references to EBITDA, adjusted EBITDA, adjusted gross debt, adjusted net debt and adjusted diluted earnings per share, among other non-IFRS measures. Reconciliations of non-IFRS measures may be found in our most recent SEC filings.

We'll be participating in the Stephens Annual Investment Conference in Nashville on November 17. We hope to see you there.

With that, I'll turn the call over to Marco.

Marco Levi

Thank you, Alex, and thank you all for joining us today. We appreciate your continued interest in Ferroglobe.

Our third quarter results continued to reflect challenges in our silicon metal and silicon-based alloy segments as a result of predatory import prices and external factors affecting costs. Despite these adverse conditions, we generated positive free cash flow.

Total shipments declined 3% quarter-over-quarter to 183,000 tons as silicon metal and silicon-based alloys volumes declined 6%, partially offset by a 1% increase in manganese-based alloys. As a result, revenue declined 2% from the second quarter to $370 million.

Adjusted EBITDA was negative $2 million compared with positive $13 million in the second quarter. The decline was due to extraordinary energy costs, mainly in Spain, associated with the Middle East conflict and to a lesser degree, regulatory pricing in the ferrosilicon segment. Excluding the $18.5 million impact from high energy prices, the adjusted EBITDA would have been approximately $16 million in the third quarter. Beatriz will provide more detailed comments in her section.

Next slide, please. Since the last call, we have made tangible progress on the following strategic priorities: lowering and rightsizing our cost structure, expanding our critical materials platform, pursuing the restart of Venezuela, and strengthening our core business through trade protection.

Let me start with rightsizing our footprint and cost structure. Last month, we initiated an aggressive cost reduction program to increase our capacity utilization, enhance our operating efficiency and strengthen our competitive position. Once fully implemented, we expect the cost reduction program to enhance our annual EBITDA by approximately $100 million, plus or minus 15%.

Our plans to tackle the difficult business environment and increase profitability include the following. First, we are consolidating our operations to our most cost competitive plants, enabled by our flexible footprint. Our goal is to boost capacity utilization to 80%, up from less than 60% today.

To accomplish this, we plan to close 5 plants around the globe with minimal impact on our sales volumes or our ability to expand into critical materials. We will work through these changes together with our employee representatives as required. Some of these operations might be switched to critical materials.

At the same time, we are restarting Selma to produce ferroalloys. As for the nonstrategic plans, we are exploring the best way to monetize them, whether through outright divestitures or alternative use as data centers.

Second, we plan to reduce our corporate overhead primarily through headcount reductions. Overall, we expect to reduce our corporate and operations workforce by approximately 20% once the process is complete, subject to consultation with employee representatives where required.

These are difficult decisions, but necessary steps to align our cost structure with the current market conditions and position the business for improved profitability. These actions will lower Ferroglobe's fixed cost per ton, target working capital reduction of $30 million, $40 million, and decrease future CapEx, creating more streamlined organization positioned to generate stronger cash flow and EBITDA.

We have already begun this process by announcing the mothballing of our South African plants in Emalahleni and Polokwane due to lack of demand. The upfront cost of implementing this transformation plan is expected to be in the range of $40 million to $60 million, net of targeted working capital reduction over an 18-month period.

Moving to critical materials. Our expansion is progressing ahead of schedule. During the third quarter, we began shipment of ferromolybdenum to commercial customers, well ahead of our original year-end target. This demonstrates our ability to produce critical ferroalloys in Monzon, Spain with minimal capital investment. We expect additional ferromolybdenum shipments in the fourth quarter as well as our first commercial shipments of other critical ferroalloys such as ferrovanadium and ferrochromium.

As part of the critical material expansion, we continue our discussion with the U.S. Department of War. These discussions to build the domestic supply of certain critical materials continue to progress on schedule. Our September 16 summary proposal included magnesium and manganese and 7 additional critical materials, and we expect to present our final proposal this month in November. The negotiations should begin in early 2027 and conclude before the end of the first quarter.

As for Venezuela, we continue to pursue the license from the Office of Foreign Assets Control, or OFAC, required to finalize any agreements. Concurrently, we have begun initial discussions in Venezuela to prepare for an expedited restart of our operations.

On our effort to protect the business, trade measures continue to gain momentum. On September 1, the European Commission initiated an interim antidumping review into imports of Chinese silicon metal and October 23, the Commission announced the registration of all Chinese silicon metal imports. This simply means that each import will be recorded and monitored in detail for future review.

This decision is important because it indicates how seriously the European Commission takes the matter and allows potential duties to be applied retroactively. The market has already responded with the European Silicon metal index rising 7% since the announcement of this review.

In the United States, the ITC's final determination in the silicon metal case against Australia and Norway was announced on August 3. Subsequently, the U.S. index rose 10% following the announcement.

Finally, Coreshell has made strong progress in the third quarter. They received a $50 million award from the U.S. Department of Energy to build the first U.S. gigafactory dedicated to 100% graphite-free silicon anode batteries. This award comes at a great moment in Coreshell's growth as they have now signed multiple military customers in the drone and autonomous vehicle space. Coreshell continues to work with multiple OEMs to further validate the silicon anode technology on a greater scale.

Next slide, please. I'll update on our segments, starting with silicon metal on Slide 5. We are seeing improvement in the silicon metal segment with index prices up 10% in U.S. and 6% in Europe in the third quarter, reflecting a positive response to trade actions on both sides of the Atlantic. Our realized prices improved 3% over the second quarter.

Our silicon metal volumes declined 6% to 38,000 tons with U.S. sales down 8% and new sales down 3%. The decline was driven mainly by seasonality with volumes up 14% over Q3 2025. Importantly, we are seeing increased customer interest, an encouraging sign as we continue our 2027 contract negotiations.

Next slide, please. Silicon-based alloy volumes remained significantly above last year's level, although they declined 6% in the third quarter compared to the second quarter to 59,000 tons. Index prices were down 2% in Europe and 1% in the U.S., while our realized prices were essentially flat.

Our European volumes declined substantially, reflecting our disciplined decision not to pursue incremental volumes at unprofitable prices. Excess inventory and elevated import volumes continue to weigh on price recovery, particularly in the European market where the ferrosilicon index is down 16% year-to-date. The main culprits are Malaysia, Bhutan, Azerbaijan, India and Angola. European Commission's annual review of the ferroalloy safeguards scheduled for later this month can potentially bring meaningful improvement to the alloys market in 2027.

Next slide, please. Manganese-based alloys remain our most consistent segment. Volumes remained strong, increasing 1% to 86,000 tons. While index prices were down approximately 1% in the quarter, our realized prices increased 5%. The market outlook remains positive, supported by firm pricing and healthy volumes.

Looking ahead, both the silicon-based alloys and manganese-based alloy segments are expected to benefit from improving steel demand. In its October short-range outlook, the World Steel Association forecast 2027 finished steel demand growth of 3% in Europe and 2% in North America. Manufacturing activity supports this view with September PMI reaching 52.9 in the Eurozone, a 52-month high, and 55.9 in the U.S. Aluminum production is expected to grow by 2% in the U.S. and 3% in Europe.

I would now like to turn the call over to Beatriz Garcia-Cos, our Chief Financial Officer, to review the financial results in more detail. Beatriz?

Beatriz García-Cos Muntañola

Thank you, Marco. Please turn to Slide 9 for a review of the third quarter income statement. Total third quarter sales declined 2% from the prior quarter to $370 million, driven by a 3% decline in total volumes. Lower volumes in silicon metal and silicon-based alloys were partially offset by higher realized prices in silicon metal and manganese-based alloys. Compared with the third quarter of 2025, sales increased 19%.

Adjusted EBITDA was negative $2 million compared with a positive $13 million in the prior quarter. As a reminder, second quarter adjusted EBITDA includes a $5 million benefit from litigation in Spain. Higher energy costs reduced adjusted EBITDA by nearly $19 million in the quarter. Excluding these items, the adjusted EBITDA would have been $16 million. Adjusted EBITDA margin was negative 0.6% compared with a positive 3.5% in the second quarter.

Next slide, please. Silicon metal revenue was $102 million in the third quarter, a 6% decline in volume, was partially offset by a 3% increase in average selling price to approximately $2,669 per ton, up from $2,592 per ton in the second quarter. Cost per ton increased by 3% due to higher energy and electrode prices in North America.

Adjusted EBITDA was negative $2 million, a slight improvement compared with negative $3 million in the prior quarter. Silicon-based alloys revenue declined to $117 million, driven by a 6% sequential decline in volumes to 59,000 tons. Realized prices were essentially flat at $1,973 per ton.

Adjusted EBITDA for the segment was negative $2 million, down from positive $15 million in the second quarter, which includes the $5 million litigation benefit in Spain. Volume and price declines explained approximately $2 million of the decline, with the remaining EBITDA decline reflecting higher energy costs and lower fixed cost absorption in Europe.

Next slide, please. Manganese-based alloys revenue increased to $114 million as volume increased 1% to 86,000 tons, and average selling price improved 5% to $1,330 per ton. Higher energy costs primarily in Spain were the main driver of increased cost per ton. Overall, energy accounts for 85% of the cost increase. Adjusted EBITDA was $11 million compared with $13 million in the prior quarter.

Next slide, please. For the third quarter, cash flow from operations was $26 million, driven by a $32 million release of working capital. This is well ahead of the approximately $50 million release we target for the second half of the year on our last call. We don't expect material changes in working capital in the fourth quarter.

For those less familiar, the PPA mark-to-market of $77 million is related to our energy contracts, which are excluded from adjusted EBITDA due to the volatility and noncash impact. CapEx was $20 million, up from $17 million in the second quarter due to the timing of the actual payments for our charcoal plant in Spain. We expect CapEx to decline significantly in the fourth quarter.

Free cash flow was positive $6 million compared with $20 million in the prior quarter.

Next slide, please. We paid our quarterly dividend of $0.015 per share on September 29. Our next dividend of $0.015 per share is scheduled for December 30, payable to shareholders on record as of December 22.

We ended the quarter with approximately $93 million in cash, unchanged from the second quarter. Adjusted gross debt was $135 million and net debt increased slightly to $42 million. We continue to maintain a solid balance sheet, which gives us the flexibility to execute the cost reduction program and support our critical materials expansion.

At this time, I'll turn the call back to Marco.

Marco Levi

Thank you, Beatriz. Before opening the call for Q&A, I'd like to share the key takeaways from today's presentation on Slide 15. While our third quarter earnings results are disappointing, we are taking decisive action to improve profitability. The cost reduction program will consolidate production at our most competitive plant, increase capacity utilization to approximately 80%, and streamline the organization. Once fully implemented, we expect to add $100 million to our annual EBITDA, plus or minus 15%.

While we expect the fourth quarter to remain challenging due to energy costs and weak ferrosilicon market in Europe, these actions are within our control and can deliver long-term benefits regardless of market conditions. At the same time, the fundamentals of our core markets are improving. Steel demand is forecast to grow next year, which supports our ferroalloy businesses.

Trade protection is working. Silicon metal index prices rose 10% in the U.S. and 6% in Europe in the third quarter. And the European investigation into Chinese silicon metal is now underway.

Our strategic direction is very clear: build a leading Western critical materials platform. We completed our first shipments in the third quarter and additional shipments are expected in the fourth quarter. We have demonstrated that our existing furnaces can produce these critical materials quickly and with minimal capital investment.

Our discussions on critical materials with the U.S. government continue to advance and Coreshell's $50 million Department of Energy award gives us further confidence in our investment in silicon battery technology.

Operator, we are ready for questions.

Operator

[Operator Instructions] We will now take our first question from the line of Nick Giles from B. Riley Securities.

分析師問答

Henry Hearle

This is Henry Hearle on for Nick. I first wanted to ask, are the 5 plant closures view that European demand does not fully recover? Or do they more assume that Venezuela backfills those tons?

Marco Levi

Well, we -- as you know, we have quite a broad asset footprint, and we are looking at different combinations to increase our asset utilization at -- to 80% from an average of 60%. We forecast demand growing better at higher rate in U.S. in the next few years. And as a consequence, we are talking about restarting Venezuela and restarting Selma in the United States.

We have disclosed in my speech the decision on South African plants. We are not going to disclose anything else about the additional assets as we need to engage other stakeholders and employee representatives before disclosing our plan in a more [indiscernible].

Henry Hearle

Got it. Understood, Marco. And then also, at this time, are you able to provide any more details on the status of the Venezuela permit?

Marco Levi

Yes. We should get the license anytime soon. At the same time, we have started our discussions in Venezuela to restart the plant. The main topic is electricity supply and reliable electricity supply. As you know, we can easily ramp up and down our furnaces. We have this flexibility running electrical furnaces, but we need electricity reliability. The license is required to close any kind of negotiation.

Henry Hearle

Understood. And then looking at the critical materials business, how do you expect shipments to ramp from 3Q to 4Q? And how many other materials might be involved in those shipments?

Marco Levi

Yes. Well, in this quarter, we are producing again ferromolybdenum. We re-run productions of ferrovanadium and ferrochrome low carbon. We seem to be able also to run trials on ferroboron.

So for these 4 products, we need validation at industrial scale production, meaning we have produced ferromolybdenum industrially, but not the other 3 products that I mentioned. So it is rather premature to talk about volumes for the quarter and 2027. Our objective is to validate our production capabilities this quarter, and then we will plan for market introduction.

Henry Hearle

Got it. And then last one for me. It looks like that the EU could possibly make the antidumping duties on China retroactive. Could you provide any more color on that or what you're hearing?

Marco Levi

Yes. I mean we have put a lot of pressure because this has been a never-ending saga. I want to remind you that we asked for safeguards on silicon metal and the fact that safeguards were not applied to silicon metal has caused a disaster in terms of results of safeguards for ferrosilicon.

Now we have changed our approach. We are going for antidumping review against China. That interim review was officially started on September 1. And on October 23, EU had announced monitoring of imports. What it means is that the Union is monitoring the imports of silicon metal outside of China via all the 27 EU countries.

And monitoring the import has a couple of effects. One, you prevent stockpiling materials -- exported materials from China before the European Union decide on the new measures. And second, the registration basically allows the commission to eventually decide to apply measures retroactively. So this is a good result. But again, we are not where we want to be.

Operator

[Operator Instructions] There are no further questions at this time. I would like to hand back over to Marco Levi for closing remarks.

Marco Levi

Thank you, Sandra, and thank you all. In a nutshell, we are executing on what we can control, and we look forward to updating you on our progress during the next call. Thank you again for your participation, and have a great day.

Operator

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.