道格拉斯動力 (PLOW) 2026 年第三季財報電話會議：業績創新高，上調財測指引

重點摘要

• Douglas Dynamics 公布 2026 年第三季淨銷售額達創紀錄的 2.18 億美元，年增 35%；調整後 EBITDA 則成長 89% 至 3,790 萬美元。
• 調整後稀釋每股盈餘 (EPS) 成長 145% 至創紀錄的 0.98 美元。該公司表示，在今年還剩一季的情況下，已超越先前全年的調整後 EPS 歷史紀錄。
• 商用卡車配件銷售額成長 78% 至 1.215 億美元。調整後 EBITDA 成長 188% 至 3,010 萬美元，利潤率擴增 940 個基點至 24.8%。
• 在市政需求持續支撐下，商用卡車解決方案創下單季銷售額紀錄，達 9,650 萬美元，年增 3%。調整後 EBITDA 為 780 萬美元。
• 管理層調升了 2026 年財務預測的下限。該公司目前預估淨銷售額為 7.7 億至 8.05 億美元，調整後 EBITDA 為 1.23 億至 1.35 億美元，調整後 EPS 為 3.00 至 3.40 美元。
• 管理層表示，在合適的營運條件與平均降雪量下，Douglas Dynamics 有可能在 2027 年重現預期的 2026 年強勁表現，不過並不預期 2026 年極其優異的零件與配件銷售表現會再次重複出現。

核心財務數據

由於應收帳款與庫存增加以支援需求，年初至今的營運現金流出增加 2,630 萬美元至 4,750 萬美元。自由現金流為負 5,870 萬美元，減少約 2,940 萬美元。

截至 9 月 30 日，Douglas Dynamics 的總流動資金為 3,400 萬美元，其中包括 550 萬美元現金及 2,850 萬美元的可用循環貸款額度。年初至今的資本支出為 1,120 萬美元，同時透過股利與股票回購向股東回饋了超過 2,700 萬美元。

業務與營運表現

商用卡車配件

在上年冬季降雪量高於平均水準後，季前預售訂單表現強勁。零件與配件的需求尤為強勁：年初至今的出貨量已超越 2025 年創下的全年最高紀錄。

管理層將該部門單季 24.8% 的調整後 EBITDA 利潤率歸因於更高的吞吐量、有利的產品組合以及季前出貨的時間點。季前出貨量在大約第二季與第三季平均分配，而 2025 年的比例為 60% 比 40%。

根據公司調查，經銷商庫存年初處於顯著低於近年來的水準。Douglas Dynamics 計劃比去年留存更多的成品庫存，以支援旺季需求。

於 2025 年 11 月收購的 Venco Venturo 也對該部門做出貢獻。針對 2027 年，管理層強調其推雪板產品線的市場接受度日益提升，並計劃開始接受與 John Deere 合作開發的人行道除雪機訂單。

商用卡車解決方案

市政需求仍是該部門的主要成長動力。管理層表示，在底盤供應受限期間所做的流程改進，目前正在支援更高的吞吐量與效率。

位於密蘇里州的新設施已投入營運，而 Henderson 的物流設施仍預計於年底前啟用。該公司亦正在將其俄亥俄州的配備改裝中心搬遷至更大、專門建造的新址。管理層預期這些投資將擴增產能、改善工作流程並縮短交貨時間。

商業需求依然不均勻，且車隊採購保持低迷。Douglas Dynamics 已根據當前狀況調整成本結構，同時管理層指出小額訂單有所增加，這可能為 2027 年的營運提供支撐。

管理層財務預測

該展望假設第四季降雪量處於平均水準。管理層預期全年配件業務利潤率將落在 20% 出頭，解決方案業務利潤率則落在雙位數低段。預計解決方案業務第四季利潤率也將達到雙位數。

在財務預測的中位數下，管理層指出第四季調整後 EBITDA 金額將與去年同期大致持平。公司整體營收則被描述為持平至略有增長，其中解決方案業務預計將實現年成長。

風險與關注事項

• 第四季配件業務的業績會隨冬季天氣產生重大變化。早期的大雪或嚴寒天氣可促使設備與零件追加訂購，而氣候溫和則可能減少需求。
• 管理層不預期 2026 年零件與配件的創紀錄表現會在 2027 年以相同水準重現。
• 商業車隊需求依然低迷，且採購活動參差不齊。
• 銷售額與庫存需求的增加提高了營運資金，導致年初至今營運現金流與自由現金流呈負數。
• 2027 年的前景能見度仍有限，降雪量為主要的不確定因素。

分析師問答重點

管理層否認了 2026 年必然代表獲利頂峰的假設。根據多年的除雪機需求分析、市政需求的強勁表現以及現有的營運產能，該公司認為，若降雪量維持平均水準且營運條件持續有利，有機會在 2027 年大致重現預期的 2026 年表現。

該公司坦承，零件與配件業務可能會從 2026 年的極高水準拉回。潛在的抵銷因素包括更高的除雪機銷售額、Dejana 的營運改善，以及 Henderson 的持續強勁表現（其在手訂單仍保持健康）。

市政需求提供了更長期的能見度，因為與地方政府及州交通局簽訂的合約可長達一至三年。管理層引用了一個範例，說明多年期合約可指定在三年期間內每年交付卡車。

管理層亦從定性角度將經銷商的財務健康狀況描述為強健。管理層表示，季前預售需求及隨後的追加訂單顯示，經銷商在冬季來臨前仍願意備貨。

法說會完整逐字稿

完整財報電話會議逐字稿

管理層陳述

Operator

Good day, and welcome to the Douglas Dynamics Third Quarter of 2026 Earnings Call. [Operator Instructions] I would now like to turn the call over to Nate Elwell, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

Nathan Elwell

Thank you. Welcome, everyone, and thank you for joining us on today's call. Before we begin, I would like to remind you that some of the comments that will be made during this conference call, including answers to your questions, will constitute forward-looking statements. These forward-looking statements are subject to risks that could cause actual results to be materially different.

Those risks include, among others, matters that we have described in today's press release and in our filings with the SEC. Please note the quarterly fact sheet can be found on our IR website. Joining me on the call today is Mark Van Gendron, President and CEO; and Sarah Lauber, Executive Vice President and CFO. Mark will provide an overview of our performance, followed by Sarah reviewing our financial results and guidance. After that, we'll open the call for questions.

That said, I'll hand the call over to Mark. Please go ahead.

Mark Van Genderen

Yes. Thanks, Nathan, and welcome, everyone. What can we say? So far, 2026 has been a great year for the company. In fact, we've already achieved the highest adjusted earnings in our company's history, we still have 1 quarter to go. We're entering the winter season with strong momentum. Before Sara and I talk about these results, though, I want to offer a heartfelt thank you to our teams across the organization. .

Their commitment and willingness to go above and beyond to get equipment shipped and trucks out the door have made these results possible. I'd also like to take a moment to offer my appreciation to the dealer network representing our 6 brands. For many, this is their busy time of the year as they're working hard installing new snow equipment on trucks, UTVs, tractors, skid seaters and front-end loaders in preparation for the winter.

Now I may be biased but we have the best, most dedicated dealer network in the world. And it's that dedication from our employees and dealers that's reflected in performance that continues to exceed our expectations, both for the quarter and year-to-date. Okay. Let's talk about this quarter where we really saw a continuation of recent trends.

The headlines from the quarters are clear. Work Truck Attachments generated record third quarter results. Based on a combination of the robust preseason demand we've communicated over the past several months and continued strong execution by our teams. and Work Truck Solutions delivered record top line results this quarter, driven by ongoing strength in municipal demand.

These results highlight the earnings power of our business with favorable market conditions. and the effectiveness of the strategic actions we've taken over the past several years to enhance our capabilities, improve our resilience and position the company for sustained growth. All right. So there are really 3 key factors that continue to underpin our performance this year.

First, an outstanding preseason order cycle attachments following an above-average snowfall winter including unprecedented demand for parts and accessories, which underscores the strength of our market position and the value we deliver to our customers.

Second, sustained demand for our municipal focused products and solutions, coupled with targeted investments that are expanding our ability to capture growth opportunities. And third, our teams have consistently delivered strong operational performance, responding effectively to customer demand in the near term while maintaining focus on the initiatives that advance our long-term strategic objectives.

So let's review the segment results starting with Work Truck Attachments. Looking at the numbers, there are a lot of very large percentage increases. The details of which Sara will share later in the call. But suffice it to say, it was a record quarter, exceeding our expectations and allowing us to increase our guidance. The combination of the excellent preseason demand with the robust operational execution from our team, led to higher throughput.

This quarter also includes the contributions of Encoventural, which we acquired last November. One number I will point out is almost 24% adjusted EBITDA margin we produced year-to-date in the Attachment segment, which stems from higher demand, throughput and strong product mix. Now this is just 1 data point, but it clearly shows that when we see the demand, our team steps up, executes our plans and our margins follow. putting us right in the wheelhouse this quarter of the mid-20s margin we have been targeting for the Attachments segment.

Now we aren't expecting these results every quarter going forward, but it's a great sign of the progress we've been making. Our teams did an excellent job delivering the second half of our preseason orders. Based on the ordering patterns we've observed and our most recent dealer checks, it is clear that dealer inventories earlier this year were substantially lower than where they have been in recent years.

The orders we've seen this year have likely helped to replenish dealer stock of snow and ice control equipment. Even so, our plans include building more finished goods inventory compared to last year so that we have enough product available and ready to ship when the winter weather arrives.

When it comes specifically to parts and accessories, the results are even more outstanding. As we explained last quarter, after achieving record P&A sales and shipments in 2025, we've already surpassed that level in the third quarter this year, significantly exceeding our expectations. It's fair to say that we haven't had this kind of surge in demand for quite some time. and we are proud of the way our attachment team has stepped up to meet this demand. They responded with a tremendous effort to increase production and ship the equipment, parts and accessories as quickly and efficiently as possible. So overall, it's already been an amazing year so far for attachments. better than anyone can remember, and we remain optimistic regarding the fourth quarter, next year and beyond.

In fact, 2027 is going to bring some exciting changes for attachments. The line of pusher flows we've rolled out over the last 2 years is really starting to gain traction. And we're on track to start taking orders next year for the Sidewalk machine we've developed in partnership with John Dieter. 2 weeks ago, we showcased this vehicle at the annual Equipment Expo in Louisville, Kentucky, allowing many prospective customers the chance to ride it.

In talking with them, their feedback to us was outstanding, and it continues to generate a lot of interest from the dealers in our network and in John Deere's dealer network as well. So congratulations to everyone at attachments and here is to a great upcoming winter season. All right. So turning to Work Truck Solutions where the teams once again produced record top line results.

This achievement is particularly notable given the increasingly difficult comparisons we faced after several years of strong growth and record performance, including a record third quarter last year. The strength of these results reflect the sustained healthy demand we're seeing across our municipal end markets. But as we've said before, demand is only part of the story.

During the years when constrained chassis availability limited our throughput and efficiency, our municipal teams invested significant effort and continuous improvement initiatives. operational efficiencies and process enhancements that are paying dividends today as volumes increase. DDMS for the Douglas Dynamics Management System is the foundation for the innate drive to get better every day.

While our continuous improvement efforts may not have been front and center recently as we focused on our strategic initiatives Make no mistake about it. DDMS projects and the philosophy in general remain a crucial part of Douglas Dynamics. At the same time, we're making targeted investments to support future growth and help meet increasing customer demand.

Our new purpose-built facility in Missouri is now operational and contributing to our expanding capabilities. It's achieving exactly what we'd hoped increasing capacity while helping to drive new business in the state. In addition, I was recently at Henderson's headquarters in Manchester, Iowa, and I can tell you firsthand that our new logistics facility remains on track to open before year-end.

This move will make us even more efficient in responding to customer demand as well as freeing up valuable space at our primary manufacturing location, further improving throughput and operational efficiency. The relocation of our Ohio upfit Center is also progressing well. The larger purpose designed location is better suited to our operational needs, provides additional capacity improves workflow efficiency and creates a better working environment for our team members.

This change will move Ohio from being our oldest upfit center into 1 of our newest and most efficient. So collectively, these highly cost-effective investments strengthen our capabilities and position us to capitalize on the growth opportunities we see across our markets. Just as importantly, these improvements have enhanced our ability to offer industry-leading lead times and consistently deliver on our commitments to customers.

That reliability has become a meaningful competitive advantage. And combined with our U.S.-centric business model, which continues to resonate strongly with municipal customers, we remain confident in the long-term outlook for our municipal operations.

Turning to our commercial operations, where we continue to see many of the same trends we discussed last quarter. While demand remains uneven with pockets of strength offset by areas of caution, the overall measured purchasing activity of end users continues to impact our growth expectations for the business.

In response, we have better aligned our cost structure with current conditions, preserving profitability wherever possible while maintaining the flexibility to capitalize on opportunities. It's encouraging that our dealer network continues to demonstrate resilience across select product lines, and we are working with our OEM partners to schedule chassis delivery to complete these bills.

And although fleet demand remains relatively subdued, we are beginning to see an increase in smaller orders, which bodes well for next year. Taken together, the strength of our municipal operations and the resilience of our commercial business, position us to deliver another year of solid performance that remains near the record levels we have achieved in recent years. Okay.

So with our third quarter results covered, let me switch gears in a minute to talk about our active strategic priority. Today marks the 1-year anniversary of the VencovenTuro team joining Douglas Dynamics. As our first acquisition in almost 10 years, we are encouraged by how well the business has integrated and how closely the culture has aligned with our organization.

This addition represents exactly the kind of opportunity we envisioned when we established the Activate strategic priority. Over time, we remain committed to building a diversified portfolio of complex work vehicle attachments that require professional upfitting and complement the core capabilities and continuous improvement principles which have been hallmarks of our company for over 80 years.

And over the past year, we've seen growing recognition across the industry and potential partners of what we are seeking to accomplish through our Activate strategic pillar. As a result, we've engaged in a broader range of compelling conversations. And that said, activity levels have increased, our approach to M&A remains disciplined. We will continue to be highly selective and focused on opportunities that are strategically aligned and capable of creating long-term value.

So in summary, this quarter was characterized by strong execution, which is clearly reflected in our results. So far in 2026, we have already broken records and are on track to break more. And we're just getting started. We're building on the momentum with a compelling strategy for future growth, and we are confident in both the course we are charting and our ability to execute it in the years to come. And there is a lot we aim to accomplish.

With that, I'd like to pass the call to Sarah.

Sarah Lauber

Thanks, Mark. As a reminder, unless stated otherwise, all the comparisons I'll make today are between the third quarter of 2026 and the third quarter of 2025. I want to start by thanking our team. They really went above and beyond this quarter, delivering record third quarter performance. And as Mark said, we're going to be saying record quite a lot today. .

So in summary, Work Truck Attachments produced record third quarter results based on robust preseason demand and strong operational execution. Work Truck Solutions delivered record top line results with strong profitability led by another quarter of robust demand in our municipal end markets. The strength of these results have allowed us to increase our guidance ranges, which I'll walk through later.

But let's start by looking at the third quarter. On a consolidated basis, net sales increased 35% to a record $218 million, and gross profit grew 57% to $59.8 million. G&A expenses increased 19% to $28.6 million. The change in SG&A this quarter was driven by higher stock and incentive-based compensation on increased earnings, increased legal costs and higher wages due to increased headcount, including the addition of the Venco antero employees as well as higher rent costs.

Adjusted EBITDA increased 89% to a record $37.9 million, with margins increasing 500 basis points to 17.4% and which drove record adjusted diluted earnings per share of $0.98, a 145% increase. Okay. Let's look at the results from the 2 segments. Work Truck Attachments delivered a record third quarter, exceeding our expectations once again. Demand for equipment and parts and accessories continued to outpace our projections this quarter as dealers stocked up in time for their retail season.

Net sales increased 78% to a record $121.5 million. as robust preseason demand was matched by the best-in-class operational execution from our teams plus the addition of Venco Venturo, which we acquired a year ago today. And we expected the ratio of preseason shipments was close to a 50-50 split between 2Q and 3Q this year compared to a 60-40 split last year.

The strength of demand for parts and accessories continues to surpass expectations at almost unprecedented levels. As we predicted in August, year-to-date P&A shipments have now exceeded the previous annual record that we set last year. Our team matched the strength of demand with equally strong execution. higher throughput, positive product mix plus the shift in timing of shipments between quarters led to a 188% increase in adjusted EBITDA to $30.1 million.

Margins increased dramatically by 940 basis points to 24.8%, which really highlights the earnings power this team can drive when demand is strong. All told, amazing performance from Work Truck Attachments. Turning to Work Trip Solutions. After several years of delivering dramatic improvements and record results the solutions team continues to perform well with net sales increasing by 3% from a record $94 million last year to a new record of $96.5 million this year.

While not quite as strong as last year, our adjusted EBITDA of $7.8 million was still very healthy this quarter. It's worth noting the solutions business can be choppy. we do expect margins to fluctuate from quarter-to-quarter. The important point is we expect Solutions margins to be in the double digits for both the fourth quarter and the full year.

The third quarter results are based on continued strong demand and throughput from our municipal customers. This helped to somewhat offset the consistent demand from our commercial customers which is impacting throughput and efficiency on that side of the business. With our overall backlog still well above historic norms, the full year outlook remains positive. We do expect to show annual top line improvement for the segment once again this year.

And overall, we are pleased to report another great quarter for solutions. With the results for the quarters covered, let's turn to the balance sheet and liquidity. Net cash used in operating activities year-to-date increased $26.3 million to $47.5 million as working capital increased to support demand across both segments. Year-to-date, free cash flow decreased approximately $29.4 million to negative $58.7 million.

The main factors were increased receivables driven by higher net sales and higher inventory, which was needed to meet demand. At September 30, we maintained $34 million of total liquidity comprised of $5.5 million in cash and $28.5 million of available capacity on our revolver. which is more than ample for our needs this year. Year-to-date, capital expenditures increased by $3.1 million to $11.2 million as we invest in the business to drive additional growth.

For the full year, we expect CapEx to be within our traditional relatively modest range of 2% to 3% of net sales. There are no changes to our capital allocation priorities. We're committed to returning excess cash to shareholders and on a year-to-date basis, we've returned over $27 million through the combination of our strong dividend and share repurchase program.

With that said, let's review our updated outlook. It's fair to say that our performance this year continues to generate stronger-than-expected results. During the first 9 months of the year, we've already surpassed 2 data points. First, we've achieved results above the midpoint of our original full year adjusted earnings per share guidance issued in February.

And second, we've already beaten our previous full year adjusted earnings per share record, which was set back in 2019. based on the strength of our year-to-date performance and the visibility we have into the fourth quarter, we're comfortable raising the lower end of our guidance ranges. As you know, we typically establish relatively broad guidance ranges in February and then refine them as the year progresses and visibility improves.

This year, we've raised our guidance 3 separate times since our initial outlook in late February. That's highly unusual and highlights just how positive this year has been. We have already delivered record adjusted earnings per share. Clearly, with 1 quarter still to go, 2026 will be a banner year for our company. In many respects, the progress we have achieved this year has accelerated our trajectory, achieving in 2026 what we originally anticipated accomplishing in 2027.

So the logical question is, why has this year been so strong? The rapid acceleration of our earnings is based on 2 points. One, the Solutions segment has demonstrated that the improvements that they've delivered in recent years can be repeated. remaining on track to be near their record performance from 2025. And second, following the improved snowfall last winter, the Attachments segment saw a surge in demand this year. more than we originally expected, particularly for parts and accessories.

This was met with first-class execution from our teams. We've said it before, but it's worth repeating. You can have all the demands in the world, but that doesn't matter if you can't manufacture and ship the products efficiently and our teams have done just that. hats off to both segments for their ability to execute so far this year.

With all that said, here are the updated guidance numbers. We raised the bottom end of our net sales guidance range by $5 million and now expect 2026 net sales to be between $770 million and $805 million. We increased adjusted EBITDA by $3 million with the new range of $123 million to $135 million. And we increased adjusted earnings per share guidance by $0.10 and with a new range of $3 to $3.40. The effective tax rate is still expected to be approximately 24% to 25% and it's worth reiterating that these guidance ranges indicate that we are on track to achieve annual margins in the low 20s for attachments while maintaining low double-digit margins for solutions.

As always, this assumes average snowfall in the fourth quarter. While we're pleased with our progress, it's important to remember that the fourth quarter for our Attachment segment can see meaningful variability An early and severe start to winter across our core markets leads to reorders of both equipment and parts and accessories, but the inverse is also true.

We can't control the weather, but we can control how we operate, and we will continue to drive strong throughput for both manufacturing and upfitting to maximize our performance. At this point, visibility into 2027 remains limited for many reasons, starting with the upcoming winter. The stronger than average snowfall we experienced last winter has been an important underlying factor contributing to our record 2026 performance.

Assuming snowfall patterns return to historical averages this winter, our early view suggests that under the right operating conditions, we are positioned to replicate our anticipated 2026 performance again in 2027. The -- in closing, we executed effectively and are very pleased with our exceptional year-to-date results. We feel well prepared and we will be monitoring reorder patterns closely as winter weather approaches. With that, we'd like to open the call for questions. Operator?

Operator

[Operator Instructions]

At this time, we will take our first question, which will come from Mike Shlisky with D.A. Davidson.

分析師問答

Michael Shlisky

And sorry, you touched on this briefly. And sorry, you got the end of your comments there, you just touched on this briefly, but this just seems to be a pretty big question among investors. I think folks want to know about the earnings cycle. It's been a great year in '26, but the average weather, could there be a chance that '27 could actually be '26.

I guess I'm trying to figure out the volume of snowfies that are being sold in I actually average, and it's been the pricing and the other brands, the other solutions and so forth, that's been a driver, Henderson and so forth. I'm trying to figure out whether you have a barrier '27 outlook as there is a good chance that '26 is actually not the earnings peak. Just some thoughts around that would be appreciated.

Mark Van Genderen

Mike, it's Mark. I'll take that and then I can pass it over to Sara and see if there's anything he wants to add. But I mean there's no doubt, we had a really strong -- we're having a really strong 2026, and it's -- we had a great winter last winter. We're also doing a lot of modeling is looking at our snowplow sales over multiple years. not just what happened in the last year. And as we're doing that, we see a few years ago, what cloud sales were, we see what last winters look like with an average winter.

Sarah said in the call, we're not going to make any predictions right now. Certainly, there's a lot of things that can happen. But we see a path P&A may come down a bit. We could see additional pod sales going up, strengthen the municipal side. But yes, all in all, when we look at our projections, again, with a lot still needs to be determined. We don't look at 2026 and saying, "Oh, that's going to be our high watermark, and we're going to we're going to go down from there.

We think there's opportunity for us to build up the strength of 2026 going forward with a lot, of course, that is still unknown, primarily related to what happens with snowfall.

Sarah Lauber

Yes. I guess the only thing I'd add there, Mike, is as I said in the script, '26 banner year. So hitting that again in '27, it will be a high watermark. But assuming average snowfall, we really think that there is a shot that we are right at that level again. And as you know, when we go out with our guidance in February, we will know more -- and that range will encompass either lower snowfall and/or higher snowfall. I guess to get at your question on the capability of going higher, operationally and capacity-wise, we absolutely have the wherewithal to do that, very much going to be dependent on what we see from a snow perspective.

Michael Shlisky

Got it. If I can just follow up there with just a few quick details. Again, a very solid year for your core snowfall business. If I recall correctly, Diana not as not as robust, so there's chances for that have come back in '27. And Henderson, I would love to hear if you comment on their backlog through '27 when you already so confident that see growth in that business already based on what you booked and of course, the ongoing DDMS it just seems that hole pieces are in place, assuming average weather that there will be that this is not going to be the Pein in '26.

But I'd love to hear some of the details I just mentioned kind of your thoughts on those comments.

Sarah Lauber

Yes. I think you have a good assessment on the points that you made. Dejana, we have room for improvement and strength if we see more strength on the demand side. Henderson, we have a good runway with the backlog, and that team has been operating well, and we're bringing in capacity -- and then again, average snowfall, we have the wherewithal, the operations, the capacity to deliver.

The 1 area that you did not have in your bullet points, which does drive higher margins is the P&A that we are experiencing this year. We've already surpassed the record fourth quarter remains to be seen on a P&A perspective. But as I sit here today, I would not expect to repeat the same P&A performance next year.

Michael Shlisky

Okay. Okay. And maybe 1 last 1 for me. Do you hear indications that there are fleets that are, at this point, planning a multiyear snowplow replacement program I guess, in other words, they are buying this year because there's great cash it was good that cause snowfall last winter. Are they planning ahead for '27 already? Are they based on there is limited dealer supply for this year or they're just trying to get their financial planning kind of an order on a multiyear basis.

I'm curious whether you've got a bit of visibility at this point in the year towards '27 as far as fleet plans versus what is typical in your business?

Mark Van Genderen

Yes, I would -- Mike, I would say so when we look at some of the work we've taken on over the last year or 2 as it relates specifically to like forecasting and demand planning, we really migrated away from simply looking at last year sales and snowfall is the primary driver for the upcoming year and digging a lot deeper into understanding what flow usage is over a multiyear period.

In some cases, down to the specific geographic level, we can match up where we sold close to dealers and what the weather looks like. And in some places we know flows haven't been used as much the last several years where it didn't snow. New York was a good example for a couple of years. They didn't see measurable snowfall for, I think, 600-and-some-odd days. But then you've got other years or other locations like Buffalo and Erie and others. And that level of detail that we're now evaluating with just a great team allows us, I think, to do a better job looking out into the future.

And all that being said, yes, we think we've got -- there's the opportunity for us to continue to have decent sales as we look at the upcoming years, assuming average snowfall. On the municipal side, this is an area that, as I'd say, more weather resistant or less snowfall dependent because the municipalities are using those trucks year-round regardless -- and so it's really more on, again, the replacement cycle for the truck and how it's been used, the municipal offers.

And so when we look at the backlog there, and we are planning out with municipalities and with state DOTs over a 1-, 2-, 3-year period. We talked about that backlog, that's where we like to see it maintain a very healthy backlog as we've shared before, backlog doesn't mean that those are all trucks that municipalities and state DOTs want right now, that backlog can include a contract that goes out multiple years where a state may say, "Hey, you know what, I want 225 trucks on 75 each of the next 3 years.

And the key with what we're doing and what Chad and his team have done really, really well at Henderson is making sure that we're shortening the lead times as much as we can to meet the needs of those end users. But then at the same time, if they say they want 10 trucks on March 5 2028, that on March 5, 2028, they've got 10 trucks delivered to them.

Operator

[Operator Instructions]

Our next question will come from Robert Schultz with Baird. .

Robert Schultz

Maybe starting off here, what's implied in the updated guidance ranges for Q4 by segment from a top line and EBITDA perspective at midpoint of ranges? .

Sarah Lauber

Sorry, Bobby. The updated guidance, essentially, -- when you look at the fourth quarter, relatively flat to up slightly in total for the company. flat. I've been talking about on the solutions side, Relatively flat for the year on solutions. But for the quarter, we do have growth year-over-year. And I mentioned in my script that I expected double-digit margins for the fourth quarter and for the full year.

And then the big 1 being the fourth quarter because that's always more challenging for us from a seasonality perspective. Last year, if you recall, was a strong fourth quarter. When you look at our midpoint for our guidance, what we're expecting for this year, I would say, flat on a dollars perspective from EBITDA, but we don't necessarily expect the whole goods inventory to be at the same levels as they were last year because that was above average snowfall in the fourth quarter last year.

Robert Schultz

And then moving to attachments here, maybe beyond inventory levels, how do you characterize dealers' financial capacity and willingness to place in-season order should we see normal snowfall this season?

Are things like financing costs or credit availability affecting any stocking decisions?

Mark Van Genderen

Yes. We don't necessarily have visibility into our dealers' financials from a all from a quantitative standpoint, but qualitatively, having spent time with dealers, downward Equipment Expo and talking with them and our sales teams out there talking with our credit teams here. dealers health right now is very strong, especially coming off of last winter. And then remember that a lot of our dealers -- many of our dealers are also selling green products as well.

And they reported that they're doing well, and we're seeing, as evidenced by the results that we're sharing, not just the preseason is strong, but reorders coming in too. So -- so overall, I would say we're pretty pleased with where the -- our dealers are from a health standpoint. And I can tell you that in talking with them, they're excited about the sales that they've seen through the dealerships to end users. -- putting product on the machines and certainly get ready for what we all hope to be as another at least average snowfall winter across our core markets.

Operator

[Operator Instructions]

And with that, we will conclude our question-and-answer session. I'd like to turn the call back over to Mark Brangenderan for any closing remarks.

Mark Van Genderen

Yes, thanks. I'll end our call to Dave by thanking you for your ongoing interest in our company, and we look forward to seeing some of you at the Baird Conference in Chicago next week. Thank you.

Operator

The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect your lines.