CNA金融 (CNA) 2026年第3季法說會：長照費用拖累核心收益

重點摘要

• 核心收益為 2.03 億美元，低於去年同期的 4.09 億美元，其中包含年度長期照護準備金假設審查帶來的 1.37 億美元稅後不利影響。
• 財產及傷害保險 (P&C) 業務產生 3.97 億美元的核心收益。產險綜合成本率為 97.0%，其中包含 2.8 個百分點的巨災損失，而基礎綜合成本率則從 91.3% 上升至 94.2%。
• 產險淨簽單保費成長 3%。續保保費變動率為 3%，費率變動由上季度的持平改善至 2%。
• 淨投資收益為 6.35 億美元，去年同期則為 6.38 億美元。固定收益及其他投資收益成長 4% 至 5.87 億美元。
• 營業現金流達到 6.54 億美元。不含累積其他綜合損益 (AOCI) 的每股帳面價值為 46.11 美元，經股利調整後較 2025 年底成長 5%。
• 管理層預計第四季固定收益及其他投資收益約為 6 億美元，全年收益將超過 23 億美元。

關鍵財務數據

業務與營運績效

商業保險

商業保險的綜合成本率從 92.7% 上升至 99.7%。巨災損失佔了 4.8 個百分點（或 7,000 萬美元），而前期不利發展則增加了 2.4 個百分點（或 3,500 萬美元），主要源於超額意外險準備金的提列增強。

基礎綜合成本率為 92.5%，去年同期則為 90.0%。淨簽單保費與新業務均成長 2%，客戶留存率為 83%。費率變動改善至 2%，受社交通膨影響最嚴重的險種費率出現高個位數成長。

CNA 在定價與條款不足的領域減少了風險暴露。大型企業客戶財產險毛簽單保費下降 12%，其中新業務下降 32%。

專業保險

專業保險的綜合成本率為 96.8%，其基礎綜合成本率從 93.3% 上升至 96.7%。淨簽單保費成長 4%，新業務成長 5% 至 1.37 億美元。

續保保費變動率為 5%，費率變動為 4%。醫療保健險費率維持強勁，成長 8%；金融與管理責任險費率變動改善至 2%。

國際業務

國際業務的綜合成本率從 91.8% 改善至 86.1%，主要受益於 10.1 個百分點（或 3,500 萬美元）的前期有利發展。其基礎綜合成本率則從 91.2% 上升至 94.1%。

淨簽單保費成長 4%，剔除匯率變動後成長 6%。客戶留存率為 87%，但在激烈競爭的市場環境下，費率下降 4%，續保價格變動下降 2%。

長期照護

人壽與團體保險部門錄得 1.71 億美元的核心虧損，去年同期虧損為 2,200 萬美元。年度長照審查使 GAAP 準備金增加 1.73 億美元，主要受近期照護成本通膨假設提高（影響 1.45 億美元）及患病率假設修正（影響 7,500 萬美元）所推動。保費費率假設帶來的 5,000 萬美元收益部分抵銷了這些變化。

管理層表示，從經濟角度來看，投資組合調整帶來的預期未來較高投資收益幾乎完全抵銷了不利的準備金假設變更，儘管該收益在 GAAP 下將隨時間逐步確認。CNA 亦重申長照業務擁有 13 億美元的法定準備金邊際。

投資與資本

固定收益及其他投資產生 5.87 億美元，同比成長 4%。合併固定收益投資組合的有效收益率從去年同期的 4.8% 上升至 5.0%。

截至 9 月 30 日，CNA 執行了超過 13 億美元的延長存續期間交易，將收益率為 5.5% 的較短存續期間 BBB+ 級債券換為收益率為 6.2% 的較長存續期間 A 級債券，已實現損失微乎其微。

不含 AOCI 的股東權益為 125 億美元。法定資本與盈餘合計 112 億美元，不含 AOCI 的債務資本比為 19.2%。

管理層展望

• 根據當前利率環境，管理層預計第四季固定收益及其他投資收益約為 6 億美元。
• 預計 2026 全年固定收益及其他投資收益將超過 23 億美元。
• CNA 繼續將約 30% 的產險費用率視為 2026 年合理的運行率 (run rate)。
• 管理層打算在 2026 年第四季和 2027 年保持嚴格的承保紀律，在風險調整後報酬適當的領域追求成長，並在定價或條款不足之處減少業務。

風險與關注領域

• 社交通膨 (social inflation) 繼續影響超額意外險的理賠結果並延長發展模式，進而推動對近期疫情後事故年份增加提列準備金。
• 大型企業客戶財產險、勞工補償險及數個國際業務險種的費率壓力依然明顯。
• 巨災損失總計 7,800 萬美元，主要由強烈暴風雨活動引起。
• 較高利率增加了 AOCI 內的固定收益未實現損失，但管理層表示這些損失集中於投資級證券，並不代表信用狀況惡化。
• 長照業務的表現對照護成本通膨、患病率、保單持續率以及能否順利執行獲批的保費調漲極為敏感。

完整法說會逐字稿

完整財報電話會議逐字稿

管理層陳述

Douglas Worman

[ The transcript was presubmitted by CNA Financial Corporation. No live call was conducted for the Q3 2026 earnings call. ]

In the third quarter, we achieved disciplined growth and high-quality underwriting results underpinned by prudent loss ratio selections and strong execution of our underwriting strategies to optimize our portfolios in the current marketplace. We maintained the higher underlying loss ratio we established in the first half of 2026, and our expense ratio was below 30% even as we continue to substantially invest in talent, technology and artificial intelligence (AI) to augment the efficiency and effectiveness of our operation.

Core income was $203 million in the third quarter. Core income includes an unfavorable after-tax impact of $137 million from our annual Life & Group long-term care (LTC) reserve assumption review. However, the unfavorable reserve assumption updates are almost entirely offset by a favorable economic impact from recent investment portfolio actions, the anticipated benefit of which is not reflected in current period earnings under GAAP accounting. We had another quarter of strong investment income at $635 million, robust cash flow from operations of $654 million and 5% year-to-date growth in book value per share excluding accumulated other comprehensive income (AOCI) and the impact of dividends. LTC and investments will be detailed in Scott's remarks.

The P&C all-in combined ratio was 97.0% in the quarter, including 2.8 points, or $78 million, of catastrophe impacts. Catastrophes were primarily driven by severe storm activity. Prior period development had no impact on the combined ratio in aggregate as additional reserve strengthening in excess casualty in recent accident years was balanced by favorable reserve changes in other classes of business. The P&C underlying combined ratio was 94.2% compared to 91.3% in the prior year quarter. The expense ratio was 29.7%, consistent with the first half of the year. The P&C underlying loss ratio was 64.1%, consistent with the prudent assumptions set earlier in the year, and up 2.2 points compared to the prior year quarter. Long run

loss cost trend assumptions were unchanged in the quarter.

Net written premium growth was 3% and new business was up 1%. P&C renewal premium change was 3% and rate change improved to 2%, compared to last quarter when rate change was flat. Rate remained under pressure in national accounts property, workers' compensation and many areas of our International segment, but the rate decline was modestly mitigated compared to last quarter. Notably, as we indicated last quarter, when we cannot achieve appropriate pricing along with terms and conditions we will walk away and lean into areas where we believe we can achieve a more appropriate return. As an example, national accounts property gross written premium was down 12% in the quarter, with new business down 32%.

Turning to each of the three P&C operating segments, in Commercial, the all-in combined ratio was 99.7% compared to 92.7% in the prior year quarter. Catastrophe impacts were $70 million, or 4.8 points of the combined ratio, compared with just 2.7 points in a very benign quarter last year. Prior period development added 2.4 points to the combined ratio, or $35 million. This was primarily from reserve strengthening in excess casualty, partially offset by favorability in workers' compensation and property.

The reserve strengthening in excess casualty is primarily from recent post-pandemic accident years. The excess casualty risk adjusted return continues to be accretive to the overall portfolio; however, we have continued to see the impacts of social inflation influence the trajectory of claim outcomes and lengthen development patterns. We have quickly reacted to elevated activity compared to prior expectations in our reserve assumptions across our different excess casualty portfolios.

The underlying combined ratio was 92.5% compared to 90.0% in the prior year quarter. The underlying loss ratio was 65.8%, consistent with the first half of the year, and up 2.4 points compared to the prior year quarter, as we maintain the philosophy addressed in our remarks for the first quarter. The expense ratio improved to 26.2% in the quarter, marking the fifth consecutive quarter below 27%.

In Commercial, net written premium grew 2% and new business also grew 2% to $332 million. Retention in the quarter was 83% with significant variation by business unit and class, similar to last quarter. While we continue to see opportunities in the portfolio, there are areas across many portions of the portfolio where we chose to walk away given current market conditions where pricing, terms and conditions are not appropriate. Commercial segment rate change increased to 2% in the quarter. Rate was high single-digit in classes most impacted by social inflation.

For Specialty, the all-in combined ratio was 96.8% and the underlying combined ratio was 96.7% compared to 93.3% in the prior year quarter. There was no prior period development in the aggregate. The underlying loss ratio was 62.8%, consistent with the first half of the year, and up 2.2 points compared to the prior year quarter for the reasons we discussed previously. The expense ratio of 33.6% was in line with the first half of the year.

In Specialty, net written premium grew 4% in the quarter and new business was up 5% to $137 million. Retention overall was 83%. Renewal premium change was 5% and rate change was 4% in the quarter. Rate remained strong at 8% in our healthcare business. In our affinity business, rate was up to 4% and retention was 80%, as we executed underwriting actions on portions of our professional errors and omissions programs. Financial and management liability lines rate change improved to 2%.For International, the all-in combined ratio was 86.1% compared to 91.8% in the prior year quarter. Catastrophe losses were 2.1 points compared to 0.6 points in the prior quarter. Prior period development was favorable by 10.1 points in the quarter, or $35 million, compared to no prior period development in the aggregate in the prior year quarter. Favorable development was concentrated in the property, professional liability and management liability classes of business. The underlying combined ratio was 94.1%, up from 91.2% in the prior year quarter. The underlying loss ratio was 59.8%, consistent with the first half of 2026 and up from 58.5% in the prior year quarter. The expense ratio was 34.3%.

International net written premium increased 4% in the quarter, or 6% excluding currency fluctuations. New business declined by $8 million to $86 million in the quarter. Retention remained strong at 87% as we hold onto profitable business in this segment. Rates were down 4% in the quarter, and renewal price change was down 2%. The environment in which our international unit operates continues to be highly competitive. Despite the competitive environment and some of the volatility it can cause, it remains an important contributor to our overall operation, and we continue to see tremendous potential there going forward.

Scott Lindquist

CNA's third quarter core income was $203 million compared with $409 million in the prior year quarter, resulting in a trailing twelve-month core return on equity of 8.6%. The decrease in core income reflects a $137 million unfavorable after-tax impact from our annual LTC reserve assumption updates. However, as detailed later in the Life & Group remarks, the unfavorable reserve assumption updates are almost entirely offset by a favorable economic impact from recent investment portfolio actions. Under GAAP accounting, the anticipated benefits of these portfolio actions are not immediately reflected in earnings, but rather are recognized through investment income over time.

Excluding the LTC assumption review impact, the quarter continued to reflect stable underlying underwriting performance and strong investment results.

Our P&C expense ratio was 29.7% for the third quarter and 29.9% year to date in 2026. Despite continued investments in talent, technology and AI capabilities, our expense ratio has remained below 30% in five of the last six quarters. We continue to believe an expense ratio around 30% represents a reasonable run-rate for 2026.

The P&C net prior period development impact on the combined ratio was flat in the current quarter. Favorable development in workers' compensation, property, surety and International was offset by unfavorable development in excess casualty, and professional and management liability. The P&C paid-to-incurred ratio was 74% for the quarter and 76% year to date in 2026. Paid losses can vary from quarter-to-quarter based on claim settlement activity and other factors.

Our Corporate segment produced a core loss of $23 million compared with a core loss of $25 million in the prior year quarter, which includes interest expense on our corporate debt and certain other expenses.

Consistent with our historical practice, we intend to review our asbestos and environment pollution reserves during the fourth quarter.

Turning back to the Life & Group segment, we recorded a core loss of $171 million for the quarter compared with a core loss of $22 million in the prior year quarter. The current quarter results include a $137 million after-tax charge from our annual reserve assumption review. As in prior years, we performed a comprehensive review of all the assumptions underlying our LTC reserves, which include cost of care inflation, morbidity, persistency and premium rate actions, using a valuation date of June 30, 2026. As detailed on slide 15 of the earnings presentation, the assumption updates resulted in a $173 million increase in GAAP reserves.

Notably for this year's assumption updates, we strengthened our near-term cost of care inflation assumptions, increasing the GAAP reserve by $145 million, and we revised morbidity assumptions to reflect actual experience on richer benefit policies, increasing the GAAP reserve by $75 million. Partially offsetting was a $50 million favorable impact from our premium rate assumptions, reflecting actual rate achievement above expectations from approvals across a number of states.

As part of the annual reserve assumption review, we also evaluate the supporting investment portfolio and related future cash flows which consider any changes in portfolio characteristics as well as updated near term interest rate expectations. As of the June 30, 2026 evaluation date, we estimate an increase in future investment income almost entirely offsetting the unfavorable reserve assumption changes. This is driven by

the impact of portfolio actions taken in the second quarter of 2026 to incrementally increase fixed income portfolio duration with higher quality, higher yielding securities through a series of duration extension trades. The fixed income duration extension trading program continued into the third quarter with over $1.3 billion of trades executed this year through September 30th, exchanging shorter duration BBB+ rated bonds at 5.5%

yield for longer-duration, A rated bonds yielding 6.2%, with a negligible realized loss on these trades. As I noted earlier, under GAAP accounting, the economic benefits of these recent portfolio actions are not immediately reflected through earnings, but rather are recognized through investment income over time.Importantly, the annual review also reaffirmed our view that the LTC business maintains a substantial statutory reserve margin of $1.3 billion.

In sum, our third quarter LTC reserve assumption updates and accompanying LTC investment portfolio review further solidifies our belief that the block remains appropriately reserved and the overall economics of the block remain stable.

In addition to the investment portfolio actions just noted, we continue to make meaningful progress in actively managing and reducing the risk of our LTC business through policy inforce actions. During 2026, we received thirty rate increase approvals averaging 20% and have effectively doubled average premium rates since original pricing. Our policy buyout program has completed approximately 12,000 buyouts through roughly $400 million of payments since 2020. As a result of these actions as well as through natural run-off, policy counts have declined by 50% since 2015, and we further expect another 40% decrease over the next decade.

Finally, we believe our locked-in GAAP basis LTC reserves have reached a plateau level. The larger Individual LTC block is mature with an average attained age of 83 and is in the latter half of its reserve run-off. The younger Group LTC block, which features less risky policy benefit features and was more appropriately priced, will have reserves plateau at levels less than half that of Individual LTC. From where we are as to the maturity of the LTC block and underlying characteristics, we currently view the financial risk of the block as contained and expect it to continue to decline over the remaining run-off.

Turning to investment results, net investment income was $635 million in the third quarter compared with $638 million in the prior year quarter.

Fixed income and other investments generated $587 million of income, up 4% from the prior year quarter. Our A-rated fixed income portfolio continues to provide consistent contributions to core income, benefiting from a growing asset base and favorable reinvestment rates. The effective income yield of our consolidated fixed income portfolio was 5.0% in the third quarter, up from 4.9% in the second quarter and 4.8% in the prior year quarter. We continue to be able to reinvest at rates above our P&C portfolio effective income yield of 4.6% and our Life & Group portfolio effective income yield of 5.8%.

Looking ahead, based on the current interest rate environment, we expect income from fixed income and other investments to be approximately $600 million in the fourth quarter. For the full year, we expect income from fixed income and other investments to be over $2.3 billion.

Our limited partnership and common stock portfolios returned a $48 million gain, or 1.5%, in the quarter compared with a $71 million gain, or 2.5%, in the prior year quarter. The lower return was primarily driven by our hedge fund portfolio, which produced a loss in the current quarter following particularly strong results in the second quarter of 2026. Our private equity portfolio reported steady returns this quarter. As a reminder,

private equity funds, which comprise the majority of our limited partnership portfolio, generally report on a quarter lag.

At quarter-end, our balance sheet remained very strong. Stockholders' equity excluding AOCI was $12.5 billion, or $46.11 per share, a 5% increase from year-end 2025 adjusting for dividends. Including AOCI, stockholders' equity was $10.2 billion, or $37.80 per share, which was impacted by a decrease in AOCI reflecting the effect of higher interest rates on unrealized losses in our fixed income portfolio. These unrealized losses are not indicative of credit deterioration and remain concentrated in investment-grade securities. Statutory capital and surplus in the combined Continental Casualty Companies was $11.2 billion, and our debt-to-capital ratio excluding AOCI was 19.2%.

Operating cash flow was $654 million for the quarter and $1,696 million for the first nine months of 2026. Cash flows continue to reflect higher paid losses for the year aligned with portfolio growth, partially offset by strong premium collections.

The effective tax rate on core income was 17.5% for the third quarter, reflecting a favorable provision-toreturn adjustment primarily related to foreign subsidiary taxes. Excluding this item, the effective tax rate was approximately 21.2%, generally consistent with our expectations for the full year.

Finally, we are pleased to announce our regular quarterly dividend of $0.48 per share, payable on December 3, 2026 to stockholders of record on November 16, 2026.

Douglas Worman

We continue to be pleased by the operating fundamentals of our P&C businesses while maintaining a prudent posture in reserves. Our P&C operation produced core income of $397 million. Our expense ratio has remained below 30% in each quarter this year, as we continue to improve efficiency while reinvesting those gains in AI, technology and talent across the value chain to strengthen our capabilities and position us for long-term growth. We continue to be optimistic based on the results we are broadly seeing play out from our AI initiatives. These unique solutions have allowed us to continue to be more effective across our specialized operations.

In our run-off Life & Group segment, the results of the annual LTC reserve assumptions review reinforced our view that the block is appropriately reserved and its financial risk is contained.

Looking forward, we remain focused on driving disciplined execution in our portfolio to optimize our book given the varying current market conditions. That discipline will not change in the fourth quarter of the year and as we enter 2027 - we will continue to focus on growing in areas where we can achieve appropriate risk adjusted returns and be willing to walk away when we cannot.