阿爾巴尼國際 (AIN) 2026 年第三季法說會：營收創新高與複合材料成長

重點摘要

• Albany International 公布創紀錄的單季營收 3.495 億美元，年增 34%，主要受惠於工程複合材料 (Engineered Composites) 計畫產能提升，以及重新談判的 CH-53K 合約所帶來的約 1,200 萬美元挹注。
• 調整後 EBITDA 為 1.001 億美元，佔營收的 28.6%，其中包括約 4,400 萬美元的 CH-53K 預期虧損迴轉。調整後稀釋每股盈餘 (EPS) 為 1.68 美元。
• 工程複合材料部門營收達到創紀錄的 1.797 億美元。若扣除 CH-53K 調整數和其他單次項目，管理層估計該部門的基礎調整後 EBITDA 利潤率約為 12.5%。
• 造紙網布 (Machine Clothing) 部門創造了 1.698 億美元的營收及 4,630 萬美元的調整後 EBITDA，利潤率約為 27%。歐洲與中國市場需求穩定，但被美洲市場的疲軟所抵消。
• 針對 2026 年第四季，管理層維持合併營收指引於 3.25 億至 3.35 億美元，調整後稀釋每股盈餘指引為 0.65 至 0.75 美元。
• 管理層預計飛彈與極音速領域的業務機會將於 2027 年開始帶來貢獻，隨著計畫推展與產能提升，將在 2028 年產生更顯著的影響。

重要財務結果

業務與營運表現

工程複合材料

工程複合材料部門營收增至創單季新高的 1.797 億美元。成長廣泛來自 LEAP、波音 787 與單體機身框架平台、CH-53K、飛彈計畫及引擎應用。營收亦受惠於國防主承包商下一代合約提早拉貨的模具需求。

列報的調整後 EBITDA 為 6,560 萬美元，佔營收 36.5%，而去年同期為虧損 1.346 億美元。2026 年第三季業績包含約 4,400 萬美元來自重新談判 CH-53K 合約的收益。管理層估計，在扣除已說明的調整數與單次項目後，基礎利潤率約為 12.5%。

修訂後的 CH-53K 協議貢獻了約 1,200 萬美元的營收，並改善了該計畫的長期經濟效益。管理層表示，該和解協議減少了圍繞該計畫的不確定性，並為鹽湖城 (Salt Lake City) 製造廠的營運提供了更穩固的基礎。

Albany 還獲得了 2,120 萬美元的「工業基礎分析與維護」(IBAS) 資助，用於擴展其陶瓷基複合材料 (CMC) 技術能力。這筆資金將用於增加內部加工、品質檢驗和致密化產能。公司預計在需要額外產能時，將結合有限的內部投資與客戶或政府的資助。

造紙網布

造紙網布部門營收為 1.698 億美元，略低於去年同期，而調整後 EBITDA 為 4,630 萬美元，利潤率約為 27%。

歐洲市場維持穩定，而中國市場則連續第四個季度維持穩定，但管理層表示能見度仍有限。北美訂單率有所改善，但客戶整合與產能合理化繼續對出貨量構成壓力。南美市場需求依然疲軟。

衛生紙和包裝紙的需求良好，尤以亞洲為甚。這些有利趨勢部分被出版用紙級別的長期衰退以及南美需求疲軟所抵消。

管理層預計將在年底前補回延遲的造紙網布出貨量。現有設備持續運作，而替換設備正在組裝中，預計將於 2026 年底前投入使用。

管理層指引

針對 2026 年第四季，Albany International 維持以下展望：

• 合併營收介於 3.25 億至 3.35 億美元。
• 調整後稀釋每股盈餘介於 0.65 至 0.75 美元。
• 有效稅率約為 29.5%。

由於各地區需求表現不一、客戶整合以及造紙業產能合理化，管理層繼續預計造紙網布全年營收將略低於 2025 年。

隨著商用航空與國防計畫擴產，工程複合材料部門預計將繼續保持年成長。管理層認為 12.5% 的基礎調整後 EBITDA 利潤率是 2026 年第四季和 2027 年初合理的基準，隨後將逐漸改善。公司的目標是在 2027 年結束時，使該部門利潤率達到 15% 左右的中段水平。

隨著 CH-53K 合約修改生效以及新合約納入產品組合，管理層預計利潤率將自 2027 年下半年開始進一步擴大。

風險與關注焦點

• 各地區對造紙網布的需求依然參差不齊，中國市場能見度有限，南美市場持續疲軟。
• 造紙廠商之間的客戶整合與產能合理化導致美洲部分地區的出貨量下降。
• 出版用紙持續面臨長期結構性衰退。
• 工程複合材料的成長取決於各大航空、國防和飛彈計畫的持續擴產。
• 飛彈認證與生產時程仍存在不確定性。管理層表示典型的產能提升過程可能需要 12 至 36 個月，儘管目前的計畫進展可能更快。
• 列報的第三季獲利能力包含顯著的 CH-53K 相關效益及其他單次項目，因此工程複合材料部門的基礎利潤率成為需密切關注的關鍵指標。

分析師問答亮點

管理層表示，在剔除 CH-53K 影響及其他已說明的項目後，工程複合材料部門第三季的基礎調整後 EBITDA 利潤率約為 12.5%。受惠於定價改善、產量提升以及虧損合約的重新談判或退出，公司認為該水平是 2026 年第四季和 2027 年初合理的起點。

在飛彈計畫方面，管理層指出 JASSM 與 LRASM 為現有的成長來源。來自其他業務機會的開發活動預計將於 2027 年開始對營運表現產生影響，並在 2028 年帶來更明確的量產貢獻。

管理層預計第四季現金流將保持強勁，並可能接近第三季的水平，同時指出 CH-53K 重新談判帶來的現金效益應會在 2026 年第四季以及整個 2027 年更加明顯。

資本配置將繼續保持紀律。公司計畫優先促進工程複合材料部門的有機成長、維持股利發放，並在主要歷史遺留問題已得到解決的情況下，更認真地評估潛在的併購機會。

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管理層陳述

Operator

Hello, everyone. Thank you for joining us, and welcome to the Albany International Third Quarter 2026 Earnings. [Operator Instructions]

I will now hand the conference call over to Karen Blomquist, Director of Investor Relations. Karen, please go ahead.

Karen Blomquist

Welcome to Albany International's Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Conference Call.

As a reminder, for those listening on the call, please refer to our press release issued last night, detailing our quarterly financial results. Contained in the text of the release is a notice regarding our forward-looking statements and the use of certain non-GAAP financial measures and their reconciliation to GAAP. For the purposes of this conference call, those same statements apply to our verbal remarks this morning. Additionally, our remarks today may reference our earnings presentation, which is available on the Investor Relations section of our website, albint.com.

Today, we will make statements that are forward-looking and contain a number of risks and uncertainties, which could cause actual results to differ from those expressed or implied. For a full discussion of these risks and uncertainties, please refer to both our earnings release of October 28, 2026, as well as our SEC filings, including our 10-Q and our 10-K.

Now I will turn the call over to Gunnar Kleveland, our President and CEO, who will provide opening remarks. Gunnar?

Gunnar Kleveland

Thank you, Karen. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining our third quarterly earnings call. The past 3 months have been pivotal in our evolution into a more focused and disciplined company, built around our proprietary 3D weaving and material science capabilities and the differentiated value they create across the diverse set of end markets we serve.

Also, as we previously disclosed, we completed our Strategic Review during the quarter. Through that process, we addressed the most significant legacy issue in our portfolio and reached an agreement with Sikorsky that improves the economics of the CH-53K program and provides a more stable foundation for the Salt Lake City manufacturing site and our business going forward.

I'm incredibly proud of the team at our Salt Lake City facility and the broader Engineered Composites organization. Through a period of uncertainty for the team, they stay focused on what Albany does best: delivering high-quality products, supporting our customers and executing with discipline. Our improved performance at the Amelia Earhart Drive facility and the engagement and relationship with Sikorsky were essential to this successful conclusion. We are very pleased to put this behind us.

Since concluding the review, our focus is shifting decisively from addressing legacy challenges to building for growth. We're seeing stronger execution, improved program visibility and a growing pipeline of opportunities across commercial aerospace, defense, missiles, hypersonics and next-generation aircraft applications. We're also continuing to engage with customers and government partners, evidenced by new wins in the quarter as well as the Industrial Base Analysis and Sustainment, or IBAS, award of $21.2 million to complement our investments in ceramic matrix composites. We will now have a fully vertically integrated facility that can serve all high-temperature needs faster and at a lower cost than our competition. This is exemplified through the teaming agreement with Lockheed Martin on hypersonic missile development.

At the same time, Machine Clothing continues to focus on its market and product leadership positions, emerging from the past several years of integration activities with a more optimized and resilient global business. Our integration and footprint actions position the segment to generate strong cash flow while supporting customers across paper, tissue, packaging and other industrial applications.

Taken together, we are entering this next phase as a stronger company with an optimized portfolio, reduced risk profile and a sharper focus on the areas where our core capabilities create long-term customer value.

Turning to results for the quarter. We generated consolidated revenue up 34% to $349.5 million, a record high quarterly revenue for the company. These strong sales were primarily driven by continued strength in Engineered Composites and production rate increases across several key aerospace and defense programs, plus a benefit of approximately $12 million related to the renegotiated CH-53K contract. We also delivered adjusted EBITDA of $100.1 million and adjusted diluted EPS of $1.68, above the high end of the revised outlook range we provided at the conclusion of the Strategic Review.

Our major programs are continuing to ramp. Our execution continues to improve. The portfolio contains materially less program risk, and we are winning new business. This is translating to stronger, healthier and more reliable growth.

Next, I'd like to discuss our results by segment, beginning with Machine Clothing. Machine Clothing revenue was $169.8 million, modestly below the prior year due to anticipated weakness in the Americas during the quarter related to customer consolidations. By region, China remained stable for the fourth consecutive quarter, although visibility remains limited. In the Americas, end market conditions and order rates materially improved in North America, while South America continued to see softer demand similar to the second quarter. In Europe, conditions remain favorable, although our quarterly volume was muted as a result of summer shutdown schedules in the region.

By grade, tissue and packaging demand remains favorable, particularly in Asia due to the stabilization of demand compared to prior year. These areas of strength are partially offset by the long-term secular decline in publication grades and softer demand in South America. The segment delivered adjusted EBITDA of $46.3 million and an EBITDA margin of approximately 27%.

Turning to Engineered Composites, the segment delivered another record quarter with revenue of $179.7 million. Growth was driven by higher production rates across multiple programs, including LEAP, Boeing platforms, CH-53K and missile programs. As has been the case throughout 2026, we're seeing stronger and more consistent EBITDA margins as we work to optimize our portfolio and improve efficiency. Looking forward, we expect additional margin expansion beginning in the second half of 2027 as contract modifications on the CH-53K begin having an impact, and we add new contracts to the portfolio.

Demand across our core commercial aerospace and defense programs remain strong, and we continue to see production rates build across multiple platforms. In defense, we continue to engage in constructive dialogue with the Department of War to support the rebuilding of the U.S. missile supply chain and provide innovative solutions that address critical defense needs with faster production rates and lighter weight solutions. Beyond defense, we're continuing to expand the application of our technology across next generation of commercial platforms. Our inclusion in the Wing of Tomorrow program demonstrates the potential for Albany 3D Woven, braiding, automation and resin transfer molding solutions to support meaningful advances to lighter weight, more durable and more efficient composite aerostructures for future aircraft.

Taken together, Engineered Composites is entering its next phase from a much stronger position. We are executing at a higher production rate, have expanded our pipeline of new opportunities and increased our focus on higher-value applications where our technology can deliver industry-leading solutions.

As we stand here today, we reflect about how, with more than 130 years of material science expertise and innovation, we are now beginning to accelerate the potential of our technology. We continue to evolve and find new ways to provide solutions using our technologies, and we look forward to sharing more about the advances and new applications for our technology at our upcoming Investor Day in New York City in December, where we will update you on our outlook for 2030 and beyond.

With that, I will turn the call over to Sean Valashinas, our acting CFO, to review the financial results in more detail.

Sean Valashinas

Thank you, Gunnar, and good morning. Before turning to the financials, I would like to remind you that a reconciliation of GAAP to non-GAAP measures discussed today can be found in last night's press release.

Third quarter revenue was $349.5 million, representing growth of 34% year-over-year. This increase was driven primarily by higher activity levels in Engineered Composites as key programs continue to ramp, moderated by a modest decline in Machine Clothing. Adjusted EBITDA for the quarter was $100.1 million or 28.6% of sales, which benefited from approximately $44 million reversal of the reach-forward loss. We also benefited in the quarter from a tariff refund and other discrete items. This compared to a loss in the prior year of $91.1 million, which included a $147.3 million charge related to the CH-53K program.

By segment and beginning with Machine Clothing, revenue of $170 million was at the high end of our expectations. We saw continued stability in Europe, signs of stabilization in China and softness in North and South America. As previously mentioned in the Americas, customer consolidation and capacity rationalization actions taken by papermakers over the past year have reduced volume levels in certain markets. Nonetheless, we maintain our strong market share in the Americas. Adjusted EBITDA for the segment was $46.3 million with a margin of 27.2%. The Machine Clothing business continues to deliver strong margins, reflecting disciplined cost management, operational execution and the ongoing benefits from integration and efficiency initiatives. Compared to the prior year, margins contracted slightly as a result of unfavorable regional mix and lower overall volume.

In Engineered Composites, segment revenue was $179.7 million, which marked a quarterly record for the segment. Performance was strong against all of our major programs and was above our estimates due to the pull forward of tooling in the quarter for a next-generation contract with a defense prime. Segment growth year-over-year was widespread across programs, including higher volume of LEAP, Boeing 787 and missile programs. Adjusted EBITDA for the segment was $65.6 million or 36.5% of sales compared to a loss of $134.6 million in the prior year.

As a reminder, in the third quarter of 2025, the initiation of the Strategic Review on the CH-53K program reduced revenue by approximately $46 million and operating profit by approximately $147 million as we recorded charges associated with the program's loss position. Over the past year, we have continued to execute on the program and have substantially consumed that loss reserve through production activity.

The renegotiation of the CH-53K program reached during the third quarter of 2026 resulted in a positive impact of approximately $12 million to revenue and $44 million to adjusted EBITDA. The timing of that benefit relates to the structure of the settlement. Importantly, the settlement removes uncertainty, improves the long-term economics of the program and further validates the progress our team has made in transforming Engineered Composites from a business focused on resolving legacy challenges into one positioned to create value through operational execution and profitable growth.

Gross profit for the quarter was $140.4 million with a margin of 40.2% compared to a loss of $49.9 million in the prior year. Gross profit benefited in the quarter by $33.4 million related to the renegotiated CH-53K contract. The improvement in gross margin year-over-year reflects adjustments of the amended CH-53K contract and stronger margins in Engineered Composites. Operating income was $59.4 million, representing a margin of 17% compared to a loss of $116.5 million last year. The improvement was driven by the CH-53K contract amendment.

Interest expense decreased to $5.3 million compared to $5.9 million last year as we paid down debt and focused on reducing leverage. Other income was a net benefit of $1.7 million compared to a net benefit of $347,000 in the prior year due to foreign currency translation impacts. The effective tax rate for the quarter was 24.9% compared to 20% in the prior year.

Free cash flow was a net gain of $36.5 million compared to a net gain of $25.7 million in the prior period. The year-over-year increase was driven by a number of items, including benefits from the renegotiated contract, tariff refunds and a vendor credit.

Capital expenditures for the quarter totaled $12.2 million compared to $18.3 million in the prior year as our focus on facility optimization lowered expenditures. R&D expense was $12.2 million, reflecting our continued focus on innovation.

We ended the quarter with $79.1 million in cash and $422.1 million in total debt, resulting in net debt of approximately $343 million as the company's improved cash position allowed for debt repayment while improving overall liquidity. Including revolver availability, we have approximately $457 million of available capital, providing flexibility to support ongoing investments and return capital to shareholders.

Turning to our outlook and beginning with Machine Clothing, the demand environment remains fluid and mixed by geography. We continue to see stable demand in Europe, signs of stabilization in China at current levels and softer demand in North and South America. Given these trends and the impact of customer consolidation and capacity rationalization across parts of the paper industry, we continue to expect full year Machine Clothing revenue to be slightly down compared to 2025. In Engineered Composites, we expect continued year-over-year growth, supported by ongoing program ramps across both commercial and defense platforms. For the fourth quarter of 2026, we continue to expect consolidated revenue in the range of $325 million to $335 million. We anticipate adjusted EPS in the range of $0.65 to $0.75 per diluted share and an effective tax rate of approximately 29.5%.

Now we would like to open the call for questions. Operator?

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Your first question comes from the line of Chigusa Katoku with JPMorgan.

分析師問答

Chigusa Katoku

So my first question is on the AEC margins. So there were adjustments for CH-53K both the top line and the EBITDA line. And also, I think you called out in your prepared remarks some tariff refund and discrete items. So adjusting for all of those, what was the underlying EBITDA margin profile of the segment in the third quarter?

Sean Valashinas

Yes, Chigusa, the tariff refunds were spread across both businesses, so really not as much to AEC. But if you back away the -- all of the impacts that you laid out there, you're looking at about a margin profile of 12.5% EBITDA margin for the quarter in AEC, excluding those charges.

Chigusa Katoku

Okay. That's great. And so is the 12.5-ish percent a reasonable assumption as we kind of model out to at least through the first quarter of 2027. And then from the third quarter, I think you'll have some ramp in margins. If you have any color there, that would be great.

Sean Valashinas

Yes, sure. Thanks. So the 12.5% should -- as we move into the fourth quarter and the beginning of 2027, that's a reasonable approximation. We'll start to see some growth as we move into the future quarters, but start with 12.5% as a base and then some reasonable growth coming out of that. And really, the growth is driven by a number of things that we started to experience this quarter. We landed on increased pricing with some of our existing contracts. We obviously renegotiated the legacy contracts that were in a loss position or exited them, for instance, on Gulfstream. We had increased volume and activity levels on our existing contracts. And again, we renegotiated contracts. So we hit on all cylinders and have really started to execute in that business. And so you'll see us increase margins as we move through the quarter into 2027. And our goal as we exit 2027 is to be in the mid-teens in this business.

Chigusa Katoku

Okay. Great. And if I could squeeze one more in, if I may. On the AEC top line, I think there were adjustments from CH-53K this quarter and also last quarter had some adjustments too. So what was the underlying growth rate of the business this quarter? And I think next quarter, you're assuming development growth. So kind of the right run rate to think about heading into 2027?

Gunnar Kleveland

Chigusa, I think you said Engineered Composites and the growth there. The primary growth for our Engineered Composites segment is our current programs. So there's growth on LEAP. There's growth on the Boeing one-piece frames. There's growth in the missile and there's growth in the engine section of the business. There are some new programs that are starting to take effect, and we will see more of that effect as we go through 2027, which we will also talk more about at the Investor Day here in December.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Alexandra Mandery with Truist Securities.

Alexandra Eleni Mandery

What capacity and CapEx do missile hypersonics ramps need? CapEx was down versus last year as a result of facility optimization. So is that lower level sustainable? And you also had that $21.2 million IBAS contract to support hypersonic and solid rocket motor manufacturing. If you could discuss how that plays into the build-out.

Gunnar Kleveland

Alex, you partially answered my question with the IBAS award that we have. We've done significant investment in creating the capability of ceramic matrix composites. And we have the capability. We're doing development there. The additional money from IBAS will act to allow us to do everything in-house. So it adds machining capability as well as quality inspection as well as an addition to the densification process that we currently do not have. And there's some investment from our side there, but limited.

Now this is a capacity that is untapped in a very high demand area right now, as I think everyone knows. Eventually, we will run out of capacity in Rochester. And the investment beyond that, we will try to do in the same manner by some investment on our own and some investment from either our customers or the government. So that is working, and that is the plan.

As far as the capital, we're going to be very constructive in how we use the money that we use for capital. And there is going to be growth capital for both -- for mostly our new programs. But we have pulled back on the capital expenditures, as you saw this year. We expect to continue to invest in the significant growth that we see from Engineered Composites.

Alexandra Eleni Mandery

Great. And then can you update us on the progress of the catch-up in volumes after the equipment failure in Machine Clothing? And I guess, do you still expect those volumes to be caught up by year-end or maybe pushed into 2027?

Gunnar Kleveland

Yes. The equipment continues to run. And so the plan continues to be caught up by year-end. And we see that as absolutely possible, especially since the machine is now being assembled at our site. The new machine is being assembled and will be up and running by the end of the year. So I think we have been able to maintain the current machine and deliver on it through the year without any more downtime, and that risk is significantly lowered as well.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Jan Engelbrecht with Baird.

Jan-Frans Engelbrecht

I think I want to just focus a little bit again on the missile programs. You guys called out in the release that it contributed to third quarter AEC growth. And then we saw a nice announcement on the IBAS award for $21 million and then also the expansion of your facility, I think, last week through your press release. But at a high level, how should we think of sort of production content on the missile business versus qualifying new components and sort of the time line that it usually takes since you start talking with a customer to getting qualified and then entering production? Is it sort of similar to the IBAS contract sort of 30 months? Or just how should we think about that?

Gunnar Kleveland

Jan, it's a good question. Some of the growth that we're seeing is primarily in the programs, JASSM, LRASM, where we're already seeing significant demand, and we're ramping up with the new contracts we're getting from our customer.

I would say in a normal environment, once you get on a program, it takes 12, 24, 36 months to ramp up. With the need for -- well, need for speed, in the current market, I expect it to be faster. We're working with several of the OEMs for missiles. I'm not sure which ones we will end up with, but it is going to be on an accelerated schedule.

Some of this is R&D and development on the programs, and you'll start seeing that in '27. I think as I've said before, this used to be a medium to long term, then I said it was a medium. Now I say -- or medium to near term, now it's more near term. I think we'll start seeing impact in '27 and definitely in '28 rather than 30 months out. We have the capability today. What the IBAS contract does is increase and broaden the scope of our capabilities. So 3 years from now, when we're fully deployed on every opportunity is when we have the highest impact. But there's definitely opportunity for us to deliver both in '27 and '28.

Jan-Frans Engelbrecht

And if I can have a follow-up. You guys obviously had very strong cash generation in the third quarter here. There was some pull forward from the CH-53K contract. But I know that's a focus area since you've taken over is cash generation. But just how should we think about steady-state cash dynamics for Albany? I know there's maybe some working capital investments that you need to make given the demand. But how should we think about that? I know you can't talk too much ahead of the Investor Day. But just as we're exiting 2026, what's sort of the steady state? Or are you guys targeting operating cash growth in 2027, if you can comment on that?

Sean Valashinas

Yes, Jan, I'll take that one. I think you hit it well, right? We'll share more as we get into Investor Day in December. But as you think about Q4 and as we move into the beginning of Q1, right? What you saw this quarter, we certainly have started to focus -- there's a high degree of focus on cash flow within the business right now, right? We're generating improvements across the business. I don't know that I would characterize the 53K renegotiation as a driver of cash flow in the quarter. We'll start to see that into the fourth quarter and into 2027, particularly -- well, in all 4 quarters into 2027 as well. So you'll see some of that.

But I think you can -- our historic results in Q4 have typically been very strong cash flow in the quarter. I think you can expect to see strong cash flow maybe consistently -- consistent with what we've seen in Q3 or near that. And then as we move into Q1, that will follow the historic patterns that you've seen typically. But like you said, we'll share more of that at Investor Day as we move into December.

Jan-Frans Engelbrecht

Okay. Great. Sean, if I could squeeze in one more question. Just high-level thoughts that you guys have on capital deployment in terms of potential acquisitions, organic investments. I know you guys have talked about being very adamant about not bidding on structures assembly work in AEC, but high-level thoughts on capital deployment as we sort of exit this year.

Gunnar Kleveland

It's going to continue to be disciplined. But clearly, with some of these structural issues that we have now behind us, I will take more seriously some of the inbounds that we have for potential acquisitions. We have the capability to do that. I know we have the team that can incorporate an acquisition. But we also have a lot of inorganic -- organic, rather, opportunities. So it will be a continued disciplined approach and including our dividends.

Operator

There are no further questions at this time. I will now turn the call back over to Gunnar Kleveland for closing remarks.

Gunnar Kleveland

Thank you. And thank you, everyone, for joining us on the call today. We look forward to sharing more information and long-term targets in December at our Investor Day. If you have any questions about the event, please contact Karen. Thank you, and have a good day.

Operator

This concludes today's call. Thank you for attending. You may now disconnect.