安特羅中游 (AM) 2026年第三季財報電話會議：EBITDA與管線成長

重點摘要

• Antero Midstream Corporation (AM) 公布 2026 年第三季調整後 EBITDA 為 2.91 億美元，年增 3%，儘管輸量受到約 100 億立方英尺 (Bcf) 的減產干擾。
• 集氣與壓縮處理量分別成長 19% 及 17%，資本投資總額則為 5,100 萬美元。
• 扣除股利後的自由現金流達 4.49 億美元，其中包括 3.77 億美元的 Clearwater 訴訟所得。公司利用該現金流償還超過 4 億美元的債務並加速股票回購。
• 截至 9 月 30 日，槓桿率降至 2.8 倍，低於 AM 3.0 倍的目標，並較 2022 年底的高點整整下降了 1.0 倍。
• 管理層預期 2026 年第四季調整後 EBITDA 將創下公司新高，且在淡水配送與扣除預期減產後的溫和輸量成長支撐下，季增率將達高單數百分比。
• 展望 2027 年，管理層預期 EBITDA 將實現雙位數年成長，且用於 East Side Express 及其他區域天然氣需求專案的資本支出，將在有機計畫之外增加超過 1 億美元。

關鍵財務數據

業務與營運表現

Antero Midstream 透過收購 HG、有機集氣與水務專案，以及其新的區域管道業務單位，持續擴展其馬塞勒斯頁岩 (Marcellus Shale) 一體化基礎設施。

兩組完井團隊在專屬於 AM 的區塊運作，支援兩個已鑽探但未完井 (DUC) 的成長井場。原有及 HG 水務系統在第三季均達到 100% 的正常運作時間。公司仍按計畫要在年底前完成 HG 水務系統的整合，並實現收購時預期的水務綜效。

East Side Express 的建設持續推進。管理層表示，多家下游交易對手已表現出透過該管道取得 Antero Resources 天然氣的興趣。該專案預計將包含與下游管道約七個連接點。

AM 還在評估價值數十億美元的潛在基礎設施專案，包括一條南北向區域管道、通往天然氣需求中心的支線管道以及一體化電力機會。管理層表示，隨著現有第三方協議到期，公司打算利用其基礎設施獲取更多價值鏈效益。

自 2022 年底以來，AM 已整合了總計 14 億美元的 5 筆收購，投資超過 10 億美元的有機成長資本，每日輸量增加超過 10 億立方英尺 (Bcf)，並減少了超過 600 萬股流通股。

管理層展望

管理層預期 2026 年第四季調整後 EBITDA 將刷新公司紀錄，並較第三季實現高單數的成長率。這項預估改善是基於更高的淡水配送量以及扣除預估減產後的溫和輸量成長。

展望 2027 年，管理層預期 EBITDA 將實現雙位數的年成長。主要驅動因素包括與 Antero Resources 生產計畫掛鉤的更高輸量、全年運作的兩組完井團隊、額外的淡水配送，以及兩個原有區塊成長井場的完工。

公司預期 2027 年資本支出將在其有機計畫基礎上增加超過 1 億美元，主要用於 East Side Express 及其他區域天然氣需求專案。

East Side Express 的預算規模仍維持在約 2 億至 3 億美元之間，預計於 2028 年底或 2029 年完工。管理層目前正在評估擬議中的南北向管道，並表示最終投資決定可能在 2027 年做出。

風險與關注事項

第三季輸量因約 100 億立方英尺 (Bcf) 的減產而減少，且管理層對第四季的展望仍假設會有一些預期的減產。

East Side Express 擁有長達數年的建設時程，而南北向管道仍處於評估階段，尚未做出最終投資決定。

預期 2027 年的 EBITDA 成長部分取決於 Antero Resources 更高的輸量、持續的完井作業以及增加的淡水配送量。

分析師問答重點

高盛 (Goldman Sachs) 分析師 John Mackay 詢問了 AM 區域管道專案的規模、成本與時程。管理層重申 East Side Express 規模為 2 億至 3 億美元，包含約七個下游連接點，預計時程為 2028 年底或 2029 年。

關於潛在的南北向管道，管理層提到 Clarington 市場表現出強烈興趣。公司正在進行初步評估工作，並可能在 2027 年做出最終投資決定。

當被問及實現 2027 年 EBITDA 成長的路徑時，管理層指出了更高的輸量、兩個已鑽探但未完井井場的竣工，以及全年運作兩組完井團隊所帶來的淡水配送量增加。

電話會議完整逐字稿

完整財報電話會議逐字稿

管理層陳述

Operator

Greetings. Welcome to Antero Midstream Corporation's Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Call. [Operator Instructions]. Please note that today's conference is being recorded.

At this time, I'll turn the conference over to Dan Katzenberg, Vice President, Investor Relations. Thank you. You may now begin.

Daniel Katzenberg

Thank you for joining us for Antero Midstream's Third Quarter Investor Conference Call. We will spend a few moments going through the financial and operating highlights, and then we'll open it up for Q&A.

I would also like to direct you to the homepage of our website at anteromidstream.com, where we have provided a separate earnings call presentation that will be reviewed during today's call.

Today's call may also contain certain non-GAAP financial measures. Please refer to our earnings press release for important disclosures regarding such measures.

Joining me on the call today are Michael Kennedy, CEO and President of Antero Midstream; Justin Agnew, CFO of Antero Midstream; and Brendan Krueger, CFO of Antero Resources.

With that, I will turn the call over to Mike.

Michael Kennedy

Thanks, Dan. Good morning, everyone. I'll begin on Slide #3. Antero Midstream continues to expand its integrated Marcellus Shale footprint to support growing natural gas demand across North America. This expansion includes our HG acquisition and integration, organic gathering and water growth projects and our new regional pipeline business unit.

Turning first to Water. Two completion crews are operating on acreage dedicated to Antero Midstream, supporting 2 drilled, but uncompleted growth pads. Higher freshwater delivery volumes in the fourth quarter, combined with modest throughput growth net of expected curtailments are expected to drive high single-digit EBITDA growth quarter-over-quarter.

We also remain on track to complete the HG Water System Integration by year-end and realize all of the water synergies assumed in the acquisition. Both our legacy and HG water systems achieved 100% uptime in the third quarter, positioning us well for full operational integration.

Looking ahead to 2027, these growth pads and water system integration are expected to drive double-digit year-over-year EBITDA growth.

Turning to our newly established regional pipeline business unit. We continued construction on the East Side Express. Since announcing the project last quarter, we have seen interest from multiple downstream counterparties seeking access to AR's natural gas through the pipeline. This interest underscores a shift in industry dynamics in Appalachia.

Unlike the producer push expansions of the past, today's opportunities are driven by demand pull from LNG facilities, utilities and growing electrification of America.

Importantly, unlike the previous wave of expansions that were farmed out to third parties, Antero Midstream now has the scale, balance sheet capacity and expertise to pursue these opportunities. We are actively pursuing several billion dollars in potential projects, including our first North-South directed regional pipeline, laterals to natural gas demand centers and integrated power opportunities.

As existing third-party agreements expire, we plan to leverage our infrastructure to own more of the value chain previously served by those providers. This strategy positions AM to play an integrated role in expanding AR's margins and to serve as the industrial builder in West Virginia, delivering customized infrastructure that connects growing demand with investment-grade producers.

With that, I'll turn the call over to Justin.

Justin Agnew

Thanks, Mike. I'll start with our third quarter highlights on Slide #4. Gathering and compression volumes increased by 19% and 17%, respectively. As noted in the press release, throughput was impacted by approximately 10 Bcf of curtailments during the quarter.

Adjusted EBITDA for the third quarter was $291 million, which was a 3% increase year-over-year. Capital invested during the quarter was $51 million, which marked another quarter of EBITDA growth and flat capital.

Free cash flow after dividends was $449 million, including $377 million of Clearwater litigation proceeds. This free cash flow was utilized to reduce debt by over $400 million during the quarter and accelerate share repurchases once our leverage target was achieved.

I'll conclude our prepared remarks on Slide #5, which highlights the balance sheet improvement over the last several years. As of September 30, our leverage was 2.8x, below our 3x target and in line with this time last year. As you can see on the right-hand side of the page, our leverage is down a full turn from its peak at year-end 2022 after our first dry gas gathering acquisition.

Since then, we have integrated 5 acquisitions totaling $1.4 billion, invested over $1 billion in organic growth capital, increased throughput by over 1 Bcf a day and reduced our share count by over 6 million shares.

Looking ahead to 2027, we expect a step-up in capital as we invest over $100 million of capital incremental to our organic program related to East Side Express and other regional gas demand projects.

Even after these in-hand growth projects, we still have significant balance sheet capacity to pursue the large infrastructure opportunity set, Mike referenced in his comments, while still maintaining peer-leading leverage and debt levels.

In summary, our balance sheet, consistent free cash flow generation and integrated platform position us well to capitalize on the growing need for natural gas infrastructure in Appalachia.

With that, operator, we are ready to begin the Q&A.

Operator

[Operator Instructions]. The first question comes from the line of John Mackay with Goldman Sachs.

分析師問答

John Mackay

I appreciate the updates on East Side Express and some of the early comments on North-South. Last call, you guys were still, I guess, kind of codifying the scope on East-West. So just maybe if you can kind of share a little bit more of what the latest thoughts are in terms of size, total CapEx. And then off of that, any early read on North-South would be interesting.

Justin Agnew

Yes, really no change to the scope of that project, call it, $200 million to $300 million. Again, that's going to be roughly 7 interconnects with downstream pipelines really positioning for that demand pull industry dynamic we talked about. So really no change in that scope. Everything remains kind of on track, on schedule for that late '28, 2029 time frame.

Michael Kennedy

Yes. And then on the North-South, I don't know if you -- John, if you caught the AR call, but we're having so much interest in the Clarington market. I think it'd be natural and very opportunistic for us to build a North-South from our field up into that area.

John Mackay

And maybe just any time line on that?

Michael Kennedy

Yes, over the next couple of years. We're actually scoping it right now, having a little initial capital right now assessing it. But I think you'll probably see us FID that in 2027.

John Mackay

All right. That's clear. And then second one for me. I appreciate the commentary on kind of double-digit EBITDA growth into next year. Obviously, the third quarter and kind of implied fourth quarter are softer. You guys touched on that in terms of the curtailments and some of the kind of more actual physical constraints. But maybe just walk through a little bit of the bridge for us in terms of kind of underlying volumes versus margin versus anything else.

Michael Kennedy

Yes. I don't think the fourth quarter is soft. It will be an all-time high EBITDA for the company by quite a margin or quite an amount. So not soft there. And then '27 we will have 10% on that. You saw AR's guidance at 15 to 20 Bcf, but it's still at 4.3 Bcfe versus the 4.2, 4.3, 4.4, I believe it was for AR. So you'll have that growth in throughput.

Obviously, that's a net number. So you have a little more on that on gross for AM. And then you have those 2 water projects, the completion of the DUCs on the AR legacy acreage. So that will result in substantial water volume growth. So that will drive the Q4 up in that high single-digit EBITDA growth quarter-over-quarter.

And then looking at next year at that 4.5 that AR guided, you'll see that obviously come through in the throughput. And then you'll have more freshwater delivery as we run 2 completion crews flat for the year. So you put that all together and you get the double-digit EBITDA growth year-over-year, '27 over '26.

Operator

[Operator Instructions]. It appears we have no additional questions. We've reached the end of our question-and-answer session. I'll hand the floor to management for any closing or final remarks.

Daniel Katzenberg

I'd like to thank you for joining the earnings conference call this quarter. If you have any further questions, please feel free to reach out. Have a good day.

Operator

This will conclude today's conference. You may disconnect your lines at this time. We thank you for your participation. Have a wonderful day.