弗勞爾斯食品 (FLO) 2026 財年第二季法說會：第四季回穩與成本節省

Flowers Foods (NYSE: FLO) 表示，由於新鮮包裝麵包需求持續承壓，其 2026 財年第二季業績未達管理層預期。該公司預計第三季營收將出現年減，隨後在第四季走向進一步穩定。

核心要點

• 第二季新鮮麵包單位銷量下降 9.5%，儘管固定成本槓桿減弱，但定價策略有助於支撐毛利率。
• 管理層預計第三季營收將年減，但隨著新業務訂單逐步釋放以及去年基期的價格比較基準放緩，第四季表現將趨於穩定。
• Flowers Foods 正加速在半條裝麵包、酸種麵包、高蛋白質與高纖維產品上的創新，以彌補其產品組合缺口並因應消費者偏好的改變。
• 該公司在過去幾年已削減約 2 億美元的成本，並預計最近的重組行動將在進入 2027 財年時帶來約 2,000 萬美元的利多挹注。
• 新取得的業務分佈於餐飲通路與品牌零售，預計部分貢獻將在第三季顯現，並於第四季加速擴展。
• 管理層表示，正式的全面審查已經完成，公司已開始在產品創新、營運聚焦與門市執行力等方面執行相關建議。

關鍵財務與營運數據

業務與營運表現

由於家庭預算承壓、消費者偏好改變以及持續的市場競爭，新鮮包裝麵包品類依然面臨挑戰。管理層表示，部分消費者轉向購買自有品牌和價格較低的產品，但認為產品組合缺口才是影響 Flowers Foods 相對表現更主要的因素。

該公司指出其在半條裝麵包、酸種麵包、蛋白質、纖維與其他功能性產品方面的滲透率不足。這些領域的新產品預計將於 2026 財年下半年至 2027 年春季期間陸續上市。

旗艦品牌 Nature’s Own 在電話會議召開前幾個月重新推出。管理層表示，顧客與社群媒體的反饋令人鼓舞，但要確定該行銷活動的財務影響還為時過早。

至於 Dave’s Killer Bread（DKB），管理層將部分銷量壓力歸因於酸種麵包市場的成長以及部分價格敏感度。DKB 目前僅在美西地區提供酸種麵包。在早期的「Rock Your Reset」行銷活動以及計畫針對開學季活動的宣傳之後，預計今年剩餘時間的行銷支持將恢復常態。

Flowers Foods 也持續檢視定價與促銷策略。管理層強調，定價只是其中一項工具，此外還需搭配生產力、價格包裝結構以及產品創新。

管理層展望

管理層預計第三季整體營收將出現年減。預計第四季情況將更加穩定，主要得益於新業務訂單更充份地放量、相較於去年的定價彈性壓力有所減輕，以及 Nature’s Own 的行銷投入開始展現效益。

預期的改善在餐飲通路與品牌零售之間保持均衡。部分新業務預計將在第三季開始帶來貢獻，並在第四季產生更多效益。

2026 財年剩餘時間的大部分大宗商品均已完成避險。剩餘風險暴露包括油脂、柴油與間接樹脂成本（主要影響包裝）。管理層表示，目前的展望已納入這些壓力因素。

關於 2027 財年，規劃流程仍在進行中。管理層表示，多個原材料類別的通膨指數均已上升，公司計畫透過提升生產力、優化價格包裝結構以及加速創新來應對壓力，而非單純依賴調漲價格。

風險與觀察重點

• 新鮮包裝麵包需求持續疲軟以及家庭預算承壓。
• 市場競爭持續、促銷強度增加，以及消費者轉向購買自有品牌或低價產品。
• 在酸種麵包、半條裝麵包和功能性麵包等快速成長品類中的產品組合滲透率不足。
• 生產量下降導致整個烘焙廠網路對固定成本的吸收能力減弱。
• 2027 財年大宗商品、燃料、樹脂及包裝相關原材料可能面臨的通膨。
• 新產品推出、新業務擴展以及 Nature’s Own 重新推出過程中的執行風險。

分析師問答焦點

分析師關注 Flowers Foods 能否實現下半年展望中所預期的季增改善。管理層提出了三大主要驅動力：新業務獲取、額外的成本節省以及產品創新。預計改善力道將主要集中在第四季而非第三季。

在利潤率方面，財務長表示，儘管新鮮麵包銷量下降 9.5%，但定價策略是毛利率得以維持的主因。重組節省的成本與烘焙廠生產力也帶來了貢獻，不過管理層承認隨著產量下降，要進一步提升效率將變得更加困難。

被問及未來的通膨時，管理層表示定價彈性可能不如 2022 年大宗商品週期時靈活。因此，公司計畫更廣泛地倚賴生產力提升、產品組合調整以及價格包裝結構優化。網路優化仍在審查中，但該項目較為複雜且需要更長的時間來執行。

法說會完整逐字稿

完整財報電話會議逐字稿

管理層陳述

Operator

Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Flowers Foods Second Quarter 2026 Results Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded.

I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, J.T. Rieck, Executive Vice President of Finance and Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

J. Rieck

Good morning. I hope everyone had the opportunity to review our earnings release, listen to our prepared remarks and view the slide presentation that were all posted earlier on our Investor Relations website. After today's Q&A session, we will also post an audio replay of this call. Please note that in this Q&A session, we may make forward-looking statements about the company's performance.

Although we believe these statements to be reasonable, they are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially. In addition to what you hear in these remarks, important factors relating to Flowers Foods business are fully detailed in our SEC filings. We also provide non-GAAP financial measures for which disclosure and reconciliations are provided in the earnings release and at the end of the slide presentation on our website. Joining me today are Ryals McMullian, Chairman and CEO; and Anthony Scaglione, our CFO.

Ryals, I'll turn it over to you.

A. McMullian

Okay. Good morning, everybody. As noted in our prepared remarks, our second quarter results did not meet our expectations. The fresh packaged bread category remained challenging, reflecting pressure on household budgets, shifting consumer preferences and sustained competitive activity. Against this backdrop, we're accelerating initiatives to better align our resources and value proposition with where the market is heading.

This includes advancing innovation in smaller formats, sourdough and protein, improving our in-store execution, pursuing new business and continuing to invest behind our leading brands. As the Nature's Own relaunch, new business wins and innovation initiatives build momentum, we expect them to support greater stability and improved performance. We have work to do, but we remain confident in our strategy, our brands and the actions that we are taking.

Shannon, we can go ahead and open up for questions.

Operator

[Operator Instructions]

Our first question comes from the line of Steve Powers with Deutsche Bank.

分析師問答

Stephen Robert Powers

Ryals, maybe we can pick up a bit where you left off in the intro. I mean if I think about the implied performance in your updated guidance for the back half, even at the low end, it seems to imply some acceleration and some improvement certainly versus the exit rate of consumption that we saw coming out of 2Q. So maybe a bit more detail on the building blocks that you see to create that sequential improvement because it doesn't sound like you're expecting the category to improve. It sounds like you're expecting your own standing versus the category to improve. So which of the initiatives are expected to be the most impactful? And I guess, a little bit of how quickly we should expect them to manifest over the remainder of the year?

A. McMullian

Okay. Thanks, Steve. A few things, and I'll let Anthony chime in here as well in terms of guidance. But I would call out 3 primary factors to address the question you asked. One is we do have some pretty significant new business wins that are coming on in the back half. In addition to that, we took additional cost savings measures that will benefit the back half. And that's in addition to the roughly $200 million we've taken out of the business over the last several years.

And I'd also call out innovation, which is a particularly important factor when you think about where the category is going, the speed of the shift in consumer preferences, frankly, got a little bit ahead of our innovation pipeline. But the good news is we have those things coming to fill those gaps in our offerings, whether you're thinking about protein, half loaves, sourdough, et cetera, all that's coming in the back half and then as we move into the spring of next year. Anthony, anything you want to add?

Diego Scaglione

No, I think you covered it. I would say, Steve, if you look at it for the back half, a little skewed. We expect some year-over-year declines in Q3, but then normalization for all the factors that Ryals mentioned related to the new business wins, reduced elasticities as we're lapping prior year pricing in Q4 and a bit of stabilization in Nature's Own from our marketing investments continue to take hold.

Stephen Robert Powers

Great. Maybe a little bit, if you could, a little bit more color. It sounds like you expect improvement both across the branded retail business and the other segment where I would expect those new business wins to exist. So maybe a little bit more color as to where you see -- which side of the business you see more improvement? And then, yes, I'd love a little bit more color on what you're seeing with the Nature's Own relaunch and kind of reasons for optimism with that.

Diego Scaglione

So Steve, I think from the way we're looking at it, it's really split between our Away-from-Home business as well as our retail branded business. So I would say we're seeing good opportunities and realization in both those areas, the timing of which some of it is going to come in Q3 and some of it will come in Q4. So it's balanced wins across the portfolio.

A. McMullian

And Steve, just to address your question on the Nature's Own relaunch. Recall, we just started this a couple of months ago. I would say it's going well. It's a little bit too early to see the actual results read through, but we're getting really good feedback from customers, social media, et cetera. So there's some early indicators that it will be a successful campaign. But I think we've got to give it -- as I said on the last call, we're going to have to give it a little bit more time for it to read through. That said, we do feel really good about the campaign and where we're headed with it.

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Scott Marks with Jefferies.

Scott Marks

First thing I wanted to ask about, you noted in the prepared remarks, rising competition, rising promotional intensity. Obviously, you guys took some pricing earlier in the year with the expectation that you might see competitors follow, and it doesn't sound like that's happened quite yet. So just wondering if you can kind of give us an update on your thoughts around the pricing dynamics in the category and where you are? And any thoughts of changes to some of the actions you've taken to maintain maybe more competitiveness versus peers in traditional.

A. McMullian

Sure. I'll take a stab at that first. I think it's important to remember that the dynamics in the category are about a lot more than price. I think in certain segments of the portfolio that may be a factor. And as we noted in the prepared remarks, we're taking a pretty intensive review of our pricing and promotional strategy. However, it is more than just price. And I would point more to consumer preference shifts. Certainly, there has been some amount of trade down to private label and lower-priced items.

But I think the bigger factor, at least in our performance relative to the category has to do with those gaps in our portfolio, the underpenetration in half loaves, sourdough, protein fiber, some of these more functional attributes that consumers are looking for. And so that's where our primary focus is. That is not to say that we're ignoring the price equation. We are taking a hard look at that. And my initial thesis is there probably are some pockets of the portfolio where that's a factor, but I don't think it's the overall driving force of our performance.

Scott Marks

Appreciate the thoughts there. And then maybe there are some comments in the prepared remarks, I think, from Anthony about 2027 seeing some inflationary costs potentially ticking up, notably from commodity and fuel exposure. So just wondering if you can give us an update on where you're seeing inflation right now, how you're thinking about the exit rate in '26? And then maybe what you're assuming at this point for '27 as well as any other color you can share about '27 to help us frame your thinking.

Diego Scaglione

Sure. Sure, Scott. Let me take it in 2 parts. As we mentioned in Q1, most of our commodities for the balance of this year are fully hedged. We had some exposure, which I alluded to in oil and diesel and indirectly in resin, and that's primarily in our packaging area. So our current guide didn't change because we saw added pressure from a commodity perspective. We assume that pressure in Q1, and it hasn't really changed materially from where we were back in Q1. As I pivot to '27, we're still in the middle of our planning process for fiscal '27.

So I can't provide further color on that in isolation. To Ryals point, input costs are just one of many variables that we have to factor as it relates to price mix and the architecture and new innovation. So I can't look at it in isolation. That being said, overall inflation has gone up in many of our categories from a pricing index perspective is something that we need to definitely address as we look at '27 and the exit velocity, as you mentioned, coming out of '26. It's something we're working to address going forward. And as I mentioned in my prepared remarks, more to come. But at this point, that's all we could say as it relates to '27.

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Jim Salera with Stephens.

James Salera

I wanted to follow up on your commentary to Steve and Scott's questions there. If I look back to 2022, that was, I think, the last time we had kind of a significant commodity cycle. And if my model serves me correct, net price/mix across the business was up kind of mid-teens in 2022, which was a big factor in helping to offset that. Correct me if I'm wrong, but it sounds like there's maybe not as much flexibility on a go-forward basis around pricing given some of the competitive dynamics. So could you just walk us through what other levers you might have in the business to help offset that commodity inflation that we're seeing and kind of anticipating to continue to roll through in 2027?

Diego Scaglione

Yes. Let me start on that, Jim. I would say, clearly, we have to look at productivity measures, which is part of our -- every annual process and throughout the year, we're looking at ways to be more efficient in the bakeries in the network, et cetera. We took action coming out of Q1 when we saw softness on the top line that will accrue from a tailwind perspective as we exit 2026 into 2027. And as we said on the prepared remarks, that's roughly around the $20 million tailwind we'll have going into 2027. The other area is going to be the price pack architecture.

As Ryals mentioned, coming together with new products around small loaves, bring to market innovation in sourdough, areas where the consumer has headed and where the consumer is, we're probably underpenetrated on a portfolio basis. We have great products coming to market in the near term, but we're probably underpenetrated today. So when we look at those factors gives us confidence that, yes, price probably is not going to be the only lever to overcome the inflation. And as I mentioned earlier, a lot more work to do around that as we continue the '27 planning process.

James Salera

My follow-up question is on DKB. In the prepared remarks, you guys touched on marketing pullback there. I would just love some more commentary around -- is that kind of a temporary reshift where maybe other brands need some more support? Are you guys reworking the marketing plan there? Did it shift kind of within the portfolio, maybe towards some of the innovation versus kind of the core fresh bread offering? Any thoughts there would be great.

A. McMullian

Yes, Jim, it's temporary. I mean it's the way we laid out the cadence of our marketing and promo spend this year. So we focused a lot at the beginning of the year with -- you may recall the Rock Your Reset campaign that we did with DKB. And then also, to your point, also a focus on back-to-school. And so we should see more normalized levels of promo and marketing spend with DKB for the balance of the year.

Operator

[Operator Instructions]

Our next question comes from the line of Mitchell Pinheiro with Sturdivant & Co.

Mitchell Pinheiro

I was looking at your fresh bread volume decline, which was 9.5%, and that's a big number. But I was surprised at how well the gross margin held up despite the unit volume decline in fresh bread. How can you -- how do you manage that?

Diego Scaglione

Mitch, this is Anthony. I mean, clearly, price had a big contributor in the price/mix. From a volume decline. So our pricing definitely was a positive contributor as it relates to overall. But as we look forward into the earlier comments, there's other variables that we are looking towards as we think about the balance of this year in '27 and price pack architecture, one that I mentioned earlier. But price was definitely the contributing factor to answer your question.

Mitchell Pinheiro

And so sort of negative fixed asset leverage, you've been able to manage that? Or how should we think about that?

Diego Scaglione

Yes. So from -- obviously, the restructuring had some cost out in COGS. We've had good productivity as it relates to the in bakery network. But clearly, that's our highest fixed cost. And while we're looking at network optimization, that is more complicated and takes much longer to execute. But we're clearly constantly looking at ways to be more efficient within the 4 walls of our bakery and our network, and that drove some benefit, but that becomes harder and harder with the volume declines. So as you can imagine, that's something that we're looking at and continue to look at as ways to optimize going forward.

Mitchell Pinheiro

Okay. And then as you look at the third quarter, do you expect volume declines to moderate?

Diego Scaglione

Yes, we don't break that out. As I mentioned, we expect Q3 year-on-year to be down from an overall sales perspective. So that's going to be price and volume based and then Q4 to have a little bit more stabilization as the new wins get more fully ramped. That's probably the most color I can give you in terms of the near term.

Mitchell Pinheiro

Okay. And then I guess 2 more questions. One with Dave's Killer Bread. You mentioned that consumer -- shifts in consumer preferences as a reason that helped pressure the unit volume decline. What are you referring to?

A. McMullian

Yes. Mitch, it's Ryals. Mostly, we think that it's the growth of sourdough. It's pretty remarkable actually. I mean that subsegment of the category has already grown to be a $1.3 billion subcategory. So it's been pretty tremendous growth. And in DKB, we only have sourdough on the West Coast currently. But as we mentioned earlier in the innovation pipeline, we have [indiscernible] for all that. I would say that is certainly one area and probably at least some amount of price sensitivity relative to Dave's. But I don't -- as I said earlier, I don't think it's all price. It's a combination of price for some consumers, but also offering and product attributes that are driving some of that decline.

Mitchell Pinheiro

Okay. And then just final question is just where do we stand with the comprehensive review? Where are we in that process? Are we close to the end? Is this a continuous improvement, comprehensive review? Can you shed a little light on that?

A. McMullian

Yes. Well, I think we're always in the mode of continuous improvement. But in terms of the formal initiative of the comprehensive review, yes, we're finished with that and beginning to execute on it. So a lot of the things we've talked about today, whether it's innovation or focus or better execution, all of those are folded in and are the result of that comprehensive review.

Operator

And I'm currently showing no further questions at this time. I'd now like to hand the call back over to Ryals McMullian for closing remarks.

A. McMullian

Okay. Great. Thank you, Shannon. I just want to thank everybody for taking time today and joining us for questions. We very much appreciate your interest and support of our company. And as always, we look forward to speaking with you again next quarter. Take care.

Operator

This concludes today's conference. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.