安特罗中游 (AM) 2026年第三季度财报电话会议：EBITDA与管道业务增长

核心要点

• 尽管输送量受限约10 Bcf，Antero Midstream Corporation (AM) 公布的2026年第三季度调整后EBITDA仍达2.91亿美元，同比增长3%。
• 集输量和压缩量分别增长19%和17%，资本投资总计5100万美元。
• 扣除股息后的自由现金流达到4.49亿美元，其中包括3.77亿美元的Clearwater诉讼赔偿金。公司利用该现金流削减了超过4亿美元的债务，并加快了股份回购。
• 截至9月30日，杠杆率降至2.8倍，低于AM 3.0倍的目标，且较2022年底的峰值整整下降了1.0倍。
• 管理层预计，在淡水供应和扣除预期的限产后的输送量适度增长推动下，2026年第四季度调整后EBITDA将创公司历史新高，并实现高单位数的环比增长。
• 展望2027年，管理层预计EBITDA将实现双位数同比增长，且在常规内生增长项目之外，用于East Side Express及其他区域天然气需求项目的资本支出将增加超过1亿美元。

关键财务数据

业务与运营表现

Antero Midstream通过收购HG、内生集输与水务项目以及新建的区域管道业务单元，继续扩大其整合后的马塞勒斯页岩（Marcellus Shale）基础设施。

两支完井作业队正在专用归属于AM的区块上施工，为两个已钻完未完井（DUC）的增长井平台提供支持。原有水务系统和HG水务系统在第三季度均实现了100%的正常运行时间。公司仍按计划将于年内完成HG水务系统的整合，并实现收购时设想的水务协同效应。

East Side Express项目建设持续推进。管理层表示，多家下游合作方已表现出通过该管道获取Antero Resources天然气的兴趣。该项目预计将包含与下游管道的约七处互联接口。

AM还在评估数十亿美元的潜在基础设施项目，包括一条南北走向的区域管道、通往天然气需求中心的分流管线以及综合电力机遇。管理层表示，随着现有第三方协议到期，公司意图利用其基础设施来捕获更多价值链收益。

自2022年底以来，AM已整合了总计14亿美元的五项收购，投入了超过10亿美元的内生增长资本，将日输送量提升了超过1 Bcf，并将总股本减少了600多万股。

管理层业绩指引

管理层预计2026年第四季度调整后EBITDA将创下公司纪录，并较第三季度增长高单位数。这一预期增长建立在淡水供应量增加以及扣除预期的限产后输送量适度增长的基础之上。

展望2027年，管理层预计EBITDA将实现双位数同比增长。主要推动因素包括与Antero Resources生产计划挂钩的输送量增加、全年保持两支完井作业队施工、额外的淡水供应以及原有区块上两个增长井平台的完工。

公司预计2027年资本支出将在其常规内生项目基础上增加超过1亿美元，主要用于East Side Express及其他区域天然气需求项目。

East Side Express的预算规模仍维持在约2亿至3亿美元，预计完成时间为2028年底或2029年。管理层目前正在评估拟建的南北走向管道，并表示可能在2027年做出最终投资决定。

风险与关注事项

第三季度输送量因限产减少了约10 Bcf，且管理层对第四季度的展望仍包含了部分预期限产因素。

East Side Express的建设周期长达数年，而南北走向管道仍处于初期规划阶段，尚未做出最终投资决定。

预期中2027年的EBITDA增长部分取决于Antero Resources更高的输送量、持续的完井作业以及淡水供应量的增加。

分析师问答环节亮点

高盛（Goldman Sachs）分析师约翰·麦凯（John Mackay）就AM区域管道项目的规模、成本和时间表提出了问询。管理层重申East Side Express的预算规模为2亿至3亿美元，包含约七处下游互联接口，预计完工时间为2028年底或2029年。

关于潜在的南北走向管道，管理层提到了克拉林顿（Clarington）市场的强劲需求。公司正在进行初步评估工作，可能在2027年做出最终投资决定。

在被问及推动2027年EBITDA增长的具体途径时，管理层指出了更高的输送量、两个已钻完未完井井平台的竣工，以及全年维持两支完井作业队运作所带来的淡水供应量提升。

业绩电话会议完整文字实录

完整财报电话会议逐字稿

管理层陈述

Operator

Greetings. Welcome to Antero Midstream Corporation's Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Call. [Operator Instructions]. Please note that today's conference is being recorded.

At this time, I'll turn the conference over to Dan Katzenberg, Vice President, Investor Relations. Thank you. You may now begin.

Daniel Katzenberg

Thank you for joining us for Antero Midstream's Third Quarter Investor Conference Call. We will spend a few moments going through the financial and operating highlights, and then we'll open it up for Q&A.

I would also like to direct you to the homepage of our website at anteromidstream.com, where we have provided a separate earnings call presentation that will be reviewed during today's call.

Today's call may also contain certain non-GAAP financial measures. Please refer to our earnings press release for important disclosures regarding such measures.

Joining me on the call today are Michael Kennedy, CEO and President of Antero Midstream; Justin Agnew, CFO of Antero Midstream; and Brendan Krueger, CFO of Antero Resources.

With that, I will turn the call over to Mike.

Michael Kennedy

Thanks, Dan. Good morning, everyone. I'll begin on Slide #3. Antero Midstream continues to expand its integrated Marcellus Shale footprint to support growing natural gas demand across North America. This expansion includes our HG acquisition and integration, organic gathering and water growth projects and our new regional pipeline business unit.

Turning first to Water. Two completion crews are operating on acreage dedicated to Antero Midstream, supporting 2 drilled, but uncompleted growth pads. Higher freshwater delivery volumes in the fourth quarter, combined with modest throughput growth net of expected curtailments are expected to drive high single-digit EBITDA growth quarter-over-quarter.

We also remain on track to complete the HG Water System Integration by year-end and realize all of the water synergies assumed in the acquisition. Both our legacy and HG water systems achieved 100% uptime in the third quarter, positioning us well for full operational integration.

Looking ahead to 2027, these growth pads and water system integration are expected to drive double-digit year-over-year EBITDA growth.

Turning to our newly established regional pipeline business unit. We continued construction on the East Side Express. Since announcing the project last quarter, we have seen interest from multiple downstream counterparties seeking access to AR's natural gas through the pipeline. This interest underscores a shift in industry dynamics in Appalachia.

Unlike the producer push expansions of the past, today's opportunities are driven by demand pull from LNG facilities, utilities and growing electrification of America.

Importantly, unlike the previous wave of expansions that were farmed out to third parties, Antero Midstream now has the scale, balance sheet capacity and expertise to pursue these opportunities. We are actively pursuing several billion dollars in potential projects, including our first North-South directed regional pipeline, laterals to natural gas demand centers and integrated power opportunities.

As existing third-party agreements expire, we plan to leverage our infrastructure to own more of the value chain previously served by those providers. This strategy positions AM to play an integrated role in expanding AR's margins and to serve as the industrial builder in West Virginia, delivering customized infrastructure that connects growing demand with investment-grade producers.

With that, I'll turn the call over to Justin.

Justin Agnew

Thanks, Mike. I'll start with our third quarter highlights on Slide #4. Gathering and compression volumes increased by 19% and 17%, respectively. As noted in the press release, throughput was impacted by approximately 10 Bcf of curtailments during the quarter.

Adjusted EBITDA for the third quarter was $291 million, which was a 3% increase year-over-year. Capital invested during the quarter was $51 million, which marked another quarter of EBITDA growth and flat capital.

Free cash flow after dividends was $449 million, including $377 million of Clearwater litigation proceeds. This free cash flow was utilized to reduce debt by over $400 million during the quarter and accelerate share repurchases once our leverage target was achieved.

I'll conclude our prepared remarks on Slide #5, which highlights the balance sheet improvement over the last several years. As of September 30, our leverage was 2.8x, below our 3x target and in line with this time last year. As you can see on the right-hand side of the page, our leverage is down a full turn from its peak at year-end 2022 after our first dry gas gathering acquisition.

Since then, we have integrated 5 acquisitions totaling $1.4 billion, invested over $1 billion in organic growth capital, increased throughput by over 1 Bcf a day and reduced our share count by over 6 million shares.

Looking ahead to 2027, we expect a step-up in capital as we invest over $100 million of capital incremental to our organic program related to East Side Express and other regional gas demand projects.

Even after these in-hand growth projects, we still have significant balance sheet capacity to pursue the large infrastructure opportunity set, Mike referenced in his comments, while still maintaining peer-leading leverage and debt levels.

In summary, our balance sheet, consistent free cash flow generation and integrated platform position us well to capitalize on the growing need for natural gas infrastructure in Appalachia.

With that, operator, we are ready to begin the Q&A.

Operator

[Operator Instructions]. The first question comes from the line of John Mackay with Goldman Sachs.

分析师问答

John Mackay

I appreciate the updates on East Side Express and some of the early comments on North-South. Last call, you guys were still, I guess, kind of codifying the scope on East-West. So just maybe if you can kind of share a little bit more of what the latest thoughts are in terms of size, total CapEx. And then off of that, any early read on North-South would be interesting.

Justin Agnew

Yes, really no change to the scope of that project, call it, $200 million to $300 million. Again, that's going to be roughly 7 interconnects with downstream pipelines really positioning for that demand pull industry dynamic we talked about. So really no change in that scope. Everything remains kind of on track, on schedule for that late '28, 2029 time frame.

Michael Kennedy

Yes. And then on the North-South, I don't know if you -- John, if you caught the AR call, but we're having so much interest in the Clarington market. I think it'd be natural and very opportunistic for us to build a North-South from our field up into that area.

John Mackay

And maybe just any time line on that?

Michael Kennedy

Yes, over the next couple of years. We're actually scoping it right now, having a little initial capital right now assessing it. But I think you'll probably see us FID that in 2027.

John Mackay

All right. That's clear. And then second one for me. I appreciate the commentary on kind of double-digit EBITDA growth into next year. Obviously, the third quarter and kind of implied fourth quarter are softer. You guys touched on that in terms of the curtailments and some of the kind of more actual physical constraints. But maybe just walk through a little bit of the bridge for us in terms of kind of underlying volumes versus margin versus anything else.

Michael Kennedy

Yes. I don't think the fourth quarter is soft. It will be an all-time high EBITDA for the company by quite a margin or quite an amount. So not soft there. And then '27 we will have 10% on that. You saw AR's guidance at 15 to 20 Bcf, but it's still at 4.3 Bcfe versus the 4.2, 4.3, 4.4, I believe it was for AR. So you'll have that growth in throughput.

Obviously, that's a net number. So you have a little more on that on gross for AM. And then you have those 2 water projects, the completion of the DUCs on the AR legacy acreage. So that will result in substantial water volume growth. So that will drive the Q4 up in that high single-digit EBITDA growth quarter-over-quarter.

And then looking at next year at that 4.5 that AR guided, you'll see that obviously come through in the throughput. And then you'll have more freshwater delivery as we run 2 completion crews flat for the year. So you put that all together and you get the double-digit EBITDA growth year-over-year, '27 over '26.

Operator

[Operator Instructions]. It appears we have no additional questions. We've reached the end of our question-and-answer session. I'll hand the floor to management for any closing or final remarks.

Daniel Katzenberg

I'd like to thank you for joining the earnings conference call this quarter. If you have any further questions, please feel free to reach out. Have a good day.

Operator

This will conclude today's conference. You may disconnect your lines at this time. We thank you for your participation. Have a wonderful day.