Cuộc họp công bố kết quả kinh doanh quý 3 năm 2026 của Nova (NVMI): Doanh thu kỷ lục và định hướng quý 4

Điểm nhấn chính

• Nova Limited (NASDAQ: NVMI) đã báo cáo doanh thu quý 3 năm 2026 đạt kỷ lục 287,8 triệu USD, tăng 13% so với quý trước và tăng 28% so với cùng kỳ năm trước, vượt mức cận trên trong biên độ dự báo của công ty.
• Biên lợi nhuận hoạt động non-GAAP đạt 35,5%, cao hơn mô hình mục tiêu 28% - 33% của công ty. EPS pha loãng non-GAAP đạt 2,86 USD.
• Doanh thu và lượng đơn đặt hàng mảng bộ nhớ đều đạt mức kỷ lục, được hỗ trợ chủ yếu bởi việc mở rộng công suất DRAM, tỷ lệ lấy mẫu đo lường vật liệu cao hơn và việc ứng dụng công nghệ trên diện rộng hơn.
• Mảng đóng gói tiên tiến mang lại kết quả kỷ lục về đo lường kích thước độc lập. Hơn 10 khách hàng đã đặt hàng hoặc hoàn tất nghiệm thu nền tảng Nova WMC, cùng các đợt đánh giá bổ sung đang được triển khai.
• Ban lãnh đạo dự kiến doanh thu quý 4 đạt từ 305 triệu đến 315 triệu USD và EPS pha loãng non-GAAP từ 3,03 đến 3,18 USD. Công ty vẫn đang trên đà vượt mốc 1 tỷ USD doanh thu năm vào năm 2026.
• Ban lãnh đạo kỳ vọng nửa cuối năm 2026 sẽ tăng trưởng hơn 33% so với nửa cuối năm 2025 và nhận thấy cơ cấu đầu tư thuận lợi hơn khi bước sang năm 2027, bao gồm chi tiêu liên quan đến gate-all-around, DRAM tiên tiến và HBM.

Dữ liệu tài chính cốt lõi

Hiệu quả kinh doanh và hoạt động

Mảng bộ nhớ là động lực tăng trưởng chính. Doanh thu và lượng đơn đặt hàng đạt mức kỷ lục, chủ yếu nhờ nhu cầu DRAM mạnh mẽ. Đo lường tích hợp hưởng lợi từ việc mở rộng công suất DRAM tiên tiến, trong khi nhu cầu về XPS tăng lên khi khách hàng tăng tỷ lệ lấy mẫu và mở rộng ứng dụng. Ban lãnh đạo cho biết số lượng thiết bị trên mỗi nhà máy sản xuất chip (fab) đã lên tới 9 máy tại các khách hàng hàng đầu.

Mảng đóng gói tiên tiến cũng đạt mức kỷ lục đối với mảng đo lường kích thước độc lập. Nova ghi nhận doanh số tăng mạnh hơn đến các khách hàng lắp ráp và thử nghiệm bán dẫn thuê ngoài (OSAT), đồng thời việc ứng dụng Nova WMC tiếp tục gia tăng ở các ứng dụng logic và bộ nhớ băng thông cao (HBM). Đo lường vật liệu và hóa học cũng đang hiện diện sâu hơn trong các quy trình liên quan đến HBM.

Nhu cầu chip logic tiên tiến vẫn duy trì ổn định. Ban lãnh đạo cho biết quá trình sản xuất gate-all-around đòi hỏi cường độ đo lường cao hơn khoảng 30% so với FinFET và thị phần của Nova cao hơn trong các ứng dụng gate-all-around ở mọi khách hàng. Công ty vẫn đang trên đà đạt doanh thu lũy kế 500 triệu USD từ gate-all-around trong giai đoạn từ năm 2024 đến năm 2026.

Trong mảng đo lường hóa học tiền kỳ (front-end), AncoScene đã hoàn tất nghiệm thu và được đưa vào sản xuất quy mô lớn bởi một xưởng đúc chip hàng đầu. Nova cho biết nền tảng này đang tiếp tục tiến triển qua các giai đoạn thâm nhập khách hàng bổ sung tại nhiều khu vực địa lý.

Doanh thu dịch vụ tiếp tục lập kỷ lục mới khi lượng thiết bị đã lắp đặt được mở rộng. Doanh thu dịch vụ giá trị gia tăng tăng khoảng 50% so với cùng kỳ năm trước, dẫn đầu là các hoạt động nâng cấp hỗ trợ sản xuất ở các tiến trình tiên tiến.

Nova đang mở rộng công suất sản xuất để đáp ứng nhu cầu. Một phòng sạch mới tại châu Á dự kiến sẽ đi vào hoạt động vào cuối năm, giúp tăng công suất và đưa hoạt động sản xuất đến gần hơn với khách hàng cũng như các nhà cung cấp địa phương.

Dự báo của ban lãnh đạo

Đối với quý 4 năm 2026, ban lãnh đạo đưa ra triển vọng như sau:

Dựa trên mức trung vị của triển vọng này, Nova kỳ vọng sẽ có thêm một năm đạt doanh thu kỷ lục. Ban lãnh đạo cho biết doanh thu năm 2026 dự kiến sẽ vượt 1 tỷ USD, đạt cột mốc này sớm hơn một năm so với kế hoạch chiến lược 5 năm. Công ty đã vượt mốc 1 tỷ USD doanh thu trong 12 tháng gần nhất ngay từ quý 3.

Đối với năm 2027, ban lãnh đạo kỳ vọng đà tăng trưởng từ các khoản đầu tư vào gate-all-around, chi tiêu cho DRAM tiếp tục tăng ở mức hai chữ số, các quá trình chuyển đổi DRAM tiên tiến bao gồm 1c và 1d, việc mở rộng công suất HBM và sự đón nhận rộng rãi hơn từ khách hàng. Ban lãnh đạo cũng kỳ vọng mức tăng trưởng theo quý xuyên suốt cả năm, nhưng chưa đưa ra dự báo tài chính chính thức cho năm 2027.

Rủi ro và các lĩnh vực cần theo dõi

• Sự mở rộng nhanh chóng của toàn ngành đang gây áp lực lên chuỗi cung ứng. Nova đang hợp tác với các nhà cung cấp hiện tại về công suất dài hạn, mở rộng mạng lưới nhà cung cấp và đầu tư vào cơ sở hạ tầng sản xuất nội bộ.
• Ban lãnh đạo cho biết mức tăng trưởng của Nova so với chi tiêu cho thiết bị chế tạo wafer có thể thay đổi tùy thuộc vào cơ cấu đầu tư giữa các tiến trình và kiến trúc chip.
• Các đối thủ cạnh tranh mới có thể gia nhập thị trường đo lường vật liệu XPS vào nửa cuối năm 2027. Nova đang đầu tư vào các sản phẩm có hiệu năng cao hơn và tổng chi phí sở hữu thấp hơn để duy trì vị thế cạnh tranh.
• Metrion có thời gian giao hàng dài hơn, dù 4 trong số 5 khách hàng lớn đã sử dụng nền tảng này trong sản xuất quy mô lớn, các chương trình mở rộng triển khai hoặc các đợt đánh giá.
• Ban lãnh đạo dự kiến chi phí sẽ gia tăng sau quý 4, nhưng tin rằng sản lượng cao hơn, hiệu quả vận hành, cải tiến sản phẩm và điều chỉnh giá có thể bù đắp những chi phí này.

Điểm nhấn phiên hỏi đáp với giới phân tích

Ban lãnh đạo mô tả cơ cấu chi tiêu năm 2027 ngày càng thuận lợi cho Nova. Cường độ đo lường của gate-all-around cao hơn khoảng 30% so với FinFET, trong khi DRAM tiên tiến, HBM và các đối tượng mới gia nhập thị trường có thể giúp mở rộng thâm nhập ứng dụng và tiếp cận thêm nhiều khách hàng.

Về mảng bộ nhớ, ban lãnh đạo cho rằng mức tăng trưởng mạnh mẽ đến từ việc mở rộng công suất và danh mục đo lường kích thước, vật liệu và hóa học của Nova được ứng dụng rộng rãi hơn. Các dự án thí điểm ban đầu liên quan đến quá trình chuyển đổi sang 4F-Square dự kiến sẽ diễn ra vào năm 2027 và có thể làm tăng thêm cường độ kiểm soát quy trình.

Nova dự kiến sự cạnh tranh tiềm tàng về XPS có thể xuất hiện vào khoảng nửa cuối năm 2027, nhưng không diễn ra trên toàn bộ danh mục đo lường vật liệu của mình. Công ty đang phát triển các sản phẩm XPS mới với hiệu năng cao hơn và chi phí sở hữu được cải thiện.

Ban lãnh đạo cho biết 4 trong số 5 khách hàng mục tiêu lớn đã tiếp nhận Metrion thông qua sản xuất quy mô lớn, triển khai trên diện rộng hơn hoặc các đợt đánh giá. Nova đặt mục tiêu tiếp cận khách hàng thứ năm vào năm 2027.

Về khả năng sinh lời, ban lãnh đạo duy trì triển vọng biên lợi nhuận gộp non-GAAP quý 4 ở mức khoảng 59% và cho biết hiện chưa nhận thấy yếu tố bất lợi cụ thể nào đối với biên lợi nhuận gộp. Biên lợi nhuận theo quý có thể biến động khoảng một điểm phần trăm.

Toàn văn biên bản cuộc gọi báo cáo kết quả kinh doanh

Toàn văn cuộc gọi công bố kết quả kinh doanh

Phần trình bày của ban lãnh đạo

Operator

Good day, and welcome to the Nova Limited Third Quarter 2026 Results Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] Please note this event is being recorded.

I would now like to turn the conference over to Miri Segal, CEO of MS-IR. Please go ahead.

Miri Segal-Scharia

Thanks, operator, and good day, everyone. Welcome to Nova's Third Quarter 2026 Financial Results Conference Call. With us on the line today are Gaby Waisman, President and CEO; and Guy Kizner, CFO.

Before we begin, I would like to remind our listeners that certain information provided on this call may contain forward-looking statements, and the safe harbor statement outlined in today's earnings release also pertains to this call. If you have not received a copy of the release, please view it in the Investor Relations section of the company's website.

Gaby will begin the call with a business update, followed by Guy with a financial overview. We will then open the call for the question-and-answer session.

I will now turn the call over to Gaby Waisman, Nova's President and CEO. Gaby, please go ahead.

Gabriel Waisman

Thank you, Miri, and thank you all for joining us today. I will start the call by summarizing our third quarter performance highlights. Following my commentary, Guy will review the quarterly financial results in detail. We delivered another record quarter, exceeding the top end of our guidance with revenue reaching approximately $288 million and growing 28% year-over-year as well as record profitability. This performance was driven in part by record revenue from memory and advanced packaging segments. The strength of the quarter was reflected in outstanding performance in multiple product lines. We achieved record results across integrated metrology, stand-alone dimensional metrology and chemical metrology solutions, coupled with record service revenue.

These results manifest the continued industry momentum as well as the proliferation of our portfolios across regions, customers, market segments and critical applications. Our healthy pipeline continues to provide solid visibility into customer demand. Furthermore, we now guide the second half of 2026 to grow more than 33% compared to the second half of 2025, demonstrating an accelerating momentum of our business into 2027. The semiconductor industry's investment momentum is substantial. The mounting requirements for computing power, memory and connectivity are driving increased investments in advanced logic, memory and packaging nodes. We see this reflected in robust demand across our customer base as our industry continues to expand capacity and transitions to more advanced manufacturing technologies. These trends reinforce our confidence in demand durability.

For Nova, the opportunity is shaped not only by the overall level of industry investment, but also by the split to specific nodes and architectures. As spending shifts towards more complex designs and applications, including gate-all-around, the need for advanced process control and the intensity of metrology keep climbing. While we grow at a fast pace, our growth relative to WFE may vary from time to time depending on the investment mix. Our objective remains to outperform the market over time while continuing to leverage opportunities created by capacity expansions and unique value offerings.

Memory was an important growth engine this quarter, reaching record levels of both revenue and bookings, primarily driven by strong DRAM demand. This performance was supported equally by our dimensional and materials metrology solutions. Our integrated metrology products benefited from capacity expansions in advanced DRAM manufacturing. In materials metrology, demand for our XPS solution continued to grow as customers increased sampling rates and expanded the platform's use into new applications, increasing tool utilization. This translates into a growing number of tools per fab at leading memory customers, including a significant order from a major customer that further solidified the demand profile in 2027.

Advanced packaging was another significant contributor during the quarter with record performance of our stand-alone dimensional metrology solutions and continued strong momentum across the portfolio. Our sales to OSAT customers picked up significantly, and we see multiple opportunities to expand our presence in this market. We are particularly pleased with the continued adoption of the Nova WMC platform across both logic and HBM applications and across a broad geographic footprint with more than 10 customers having placed orders or completing acceptance of the platform and additional evaluations underway.

Alongside growing application content in dimensional metrology, we see adoption of our materials metrology solutions in HBM-related applications, complemented by strong performance from our chemical metrology portfolio. Together, these developments are expanding Nova's participation across the evolving advanced packaging ecosystem. Advanced logic sustained its robust momentum during the quarter, driven by healthy demand. Looking ahead, as investment mix increasingly shifts towards gate-all-around devices, we expect a step function in the number of tools needed to support process complexity and metrology requirements and in the value provided by our Nova PRISM platform.

The logic segment also represents an opportunity for our front-end chemical metrology. During the quarter, the AncoScene platform successfully completed acceptance and release for high-volume manufacturing by a leading foundry, and it continues to grow in both market share and customer base. These developments broaden our opportunity in advanced logic and reinforce the increasing relevance of our portfolio. Nova's growing installed base continued to drive record service revenue with strong performance in every region. Customers remain focused on maximizing production capacity, which increases the importance of tool availability, productivity and robustness. These dynamics drove approximately 50% year-over-year growth in value-added services revenue, led by strong demand for upgrades supporting advanced node production.

As our installed base expands, we see further opportunities to deliver value throughout the life cycle of our solutions. As our business continues to scale alongside industry demand, we remain focused on ensuring that our operational infrastructure and supply chain can support our growth and meet our customer commitments. We are working closely with our suppliers to align capacity and planning with our needs while continuing to strengthen the resilience and breadth of our supply base. At the same time, we're expanding our own manufacturing capacity, including the new cleanroom in Asia, which is expected to become operational by year-end.

Our outstanding execution this quarter, combined with a robust outlook for the fourth quarter, puts us on track to exceed $1 billion in annual revenue, reaching this important milestone a year ahead of our current 5-year strategic plan. With a strong pipeline, extended customer visibility and an increasingly favorable industry investment mix, we believe Nova is well positioned to carry this momentum into 2027. We look forward to discussing the next chapter of Nova's journey at our Investor Day on March 9, 2027, in New York City, where we will present our future strategy and provide greater insight into the market and technology transitions ahead, the opportunities they create and how we are aligning our portfolio and investments to drive Nova's next phase of growth.

Now for some more details on our financials, let me hand over the call to Guy.

Guy Kizner

Thanks, Gaby. Good day, everyone. I will begin by reviewing our third quarter financial achievements and then provide guidance for the fourth quarter. We delivered another quarter of record results, generating $287.8 million in revenue, our third consecutive quarter of all-time high. Revenue exceeded our guidance and increased 13% quarter-over-quarter and 28% year-over-year. This achievement is a testament to the strength of our core offerings as well as our ability to capture and respond to the continued demand in the market. Product revenue distribution was approximately 61% from logic and foundry and 39% from memory and others. Product revenues included 4 customers and 4 territories, which contributed each 10% or more to product revenues.

In the third quarter, gross margin was 57.7% on a GAAP basis and 59.1% on a non-GAAP basis. These strong margin levels reflect the high value of our product delivered to customers. Combined with record revenue, they enable us to generate another quarter of strong profitability. As expected, operating expense increased to $73.3 million on a GAAP basis and $68 million on a non-GAAP basis as we continue to invest in innovation and future growth opportunities. The increase was driven primarily by higher R&D spending to support our product road map and technology leadership as well as costs related to ongoing strategic evaluations.

Operating margins in the third quarter reached 32% on a GAAP basis and 35.5% on a non-GAAP basis, surpassing the upper range of our target model of 28% to 33%. These results highlight our ability to translate revenue growth into profitable expansion. The effective tax rate in the third quarter was approximately 18%. Earnings per diluted share in the third quarter on a GAAP basis were $2.64 per diluted share, and earnings per share on a non-GAAP basis were $2.86 per diluted share, exceeding the high end of our third quarter guidance.

Turning to the balance sheet. We ended the third quarter with $1.8 billion in cash, cash equivalents, bank deposits, and marketable securities. Our free cash flow for the third quarter reached $132 million, bringing total positive free cash flow for the first 3 quarters of 2026 to approximately $206 million. This performance highlights the strong cash-generating capability of the business and the quality of earnings. In addition, consistent with our balanced capital allocation strategy, we repurchased approximately $38.5 million of shares during the quarter, following the $200 million share repurchase authorization announced in September.

Next, I'd like to outline our guidance for the fourth quarter of 2026. We currently expect revenues for the quarter to be between $305 million and $315 million. GAAP earnings per diluted share to range from $2.78 to $2.94 (sic) [ $2.93 ]. Non-GAAP earnings per diluted share to range from $3.03 to $3.18. At the midpoint of our fourth quarter 2026 estimates, we anticipate the following: Gross margins of approximately 57% on a GAAP basis and approximately 59% on a non-GAAP basis. Operating expense on a GAAP basis to increase to approximately $78 million. Operating expense on a non-GAAP basis to increase to approximately $72 million. Financial income on a non-GAAP basis is expected to increase to approximately $18.7 million in the fourth quarter, reflecting the higher cash balance on hand. Effective tax rate is expected to be approximately 17%.

Before I conclude my remarks, I would like to highlight that based on the midpoint of our fourth quarter guidance, we expect to finish 2026 with another year of record revenues. Moreover, in the third quarter, we surpassed our long-term milestone of $1 billion in revenue on the last 12-month basis and delivered profitability at the high end of our target range, both achieved a full year ahead of our original plan. Reaching these milestones ahead of schedule is a testament to the strength of our business model, the disciplined execution of our strategy and the significant value our process control portfolio creates for customers. Most importantly, it reflects our ability to consistently generate attractive returns and long-term value for our shareholders.

With that, we will be pleased to take your questions. Operator?

Operator

[Operator Instructions]

Our first question comes from Atif Malik with Citi.

Phần hỏi đáp

Atif Malik

Gaby, you talked about objectives to outperform WFE, which is a function of spending mix. So when you look at DRAM versus foundry logic mix next year with higher gate-all-around mix and new logic project, do you think that spending mix closes the gap from this year and helps Nova outperform?

Gabriel Waisman

Thank you, Atif, for the question. So let me perhaps give some color to what makes the 2027 investment mix more favorable for us, for Nova. So I'll start with gate-all-around. First, we see some shift towards incremental investments in gate-all-around where intensity of metrology increases by about 30% compared to FinFET. And our Nova share in gate-all-around across all players is higher as well. So that also supports the increase. In memory, we do expect continued strong double-digit growth in DRAM investments and moving to some more advanced DRAM nodes moving to such as 1c, 1d, whereas we will see some additional intensity, including in materials metrology, where we see increased sampling, new applications and higher tool utilization, which drives an increase in numbers of tools per fab, which reached up to 9. Obviously, process control intensity in memory is lower than logic as a whole, but we do see some positive trend in that vector.

And the advanced packaging and specifically in HBM, we continue to see the capacity expansion, the process complexity driving our business. And we see some -- as I mentioned during the transcript, I do see some adoption in OSATs of some of our tools as a result of those players capitalizing on leading manufacturers' advanced packaging tool selections that were already made. And last but not least, we do see some new customers and entrants into the market. And those participants create additional opportunities for us to broaden our customer base and footprint.

So overall, what I see is that 2027 combines both the WFE growth with an investment mix favorable for Nova and some opportunities for increased application penetration and expansion of our market share. So I do anticipate this momentum to drive into next year. I would also say that we do see some linearity in the business in the quarter-over-quarter growth next year in that respect.

Atif Malik

Very helpful. And Guy, on the topic of supply chain, there are some concerns in the market that shortages of components like gas delivery and optical could limit the ability to ship more. Are you seeing any issues with Nova or your ability to ship more products or the bottlenecks elsewhere?

Gabriel Waisman

We are seeing -- we're definitely seeing this rapid industry ramp, stretching our supply chain, and we're taking steps to ensure that we keep delivering and maintaining our commitment to customers in spite of it. Supply chain resilience remains an area that requires active management attention and mitigation. We're working very closely with both existing suppliers on long-term capacity initiatives while also striving to broaden our supply chain and investing in Nova's own manufacturing infrastructure. I did mention our new cleanroom in Asia, and that supports our operational agility, provides us more capacity as part of our long-term plan. It's closer to customers, by the way, and definitely broadens the local supply chain ecosystem for us.

Operator

The next question comes from Shane Brett with Morgan Stanley.

Shane Brett

My first question is on memory. Even if I assume your memory revenue is flat quarter-over-quarter into December, it would imply your memory revenue is up north of 60%, which is seriously impressive, especially given we've not necessarily had a huge technology inflection in the front end this year. Just what is driving this really impressive memory growth for Nova? And how do you think about just kind of inflections into next year for memory that could drive even more outperformance?

Gabriel Waisman

Thank you, Shane. So we did indicate the fact that this quarter, we had about 39% of our business coming from memory and others. And we do forecast that our memory revenue this year to have a strong double-digit growth. And we do see some similar trends into next year as well. It's coming mostly from capacity expansions. You mentioned some transitions, and there are definitely some transitions that are providing some gradual increase in intensity as a result of architectural changes. And we definitely see some initial pilots next year with the transition to 4F-Square that will further increase the process control intensity for those customers.

So the opportunity in general is diverse and comes from our entire product portfolio. For the dimensional metrology, it's both the capacity expansion and an increasing intensity in HBM. In the materials metrology, we see increased sampling rates, new applications and all of that is driving additional tools per fab. I mentioned reaching the bar of 9 with leading customers. And in chemical metrology, it's definitely the growing adoption of our front-end solutions.

Shane Brett

Got it. That's great to hear. And for my follow-up, I'd love to hear about the competitive environment in material metrology. You pioneered this market have driven adoption with customers. If we do see competition emerge, how do you think this market will change for you?

Gabriel Waisman

So we anticipated the competition in material metrology. I indicated that a few times in the past. And it's a testament to the fact that this is becoming a meaningful process control area for both customers and obviously, for peers and competitors. We see new entrants that will come and compete probably towards the second half of next year. And we are investing considerably in order to maintain a very significant competitive gap to make it very challenging for new entrants. But we do welcome the competition. And again, it indicates the importance of this market and the fact that it will continue to grow and be very attractive in terms of the importance it possesses with our customers.

Operator

And the next question comes from Michael Mani with Bank of America.

Michael Mani

To start, could you give us a sense of where foundry and logic and memory end up for Q4? And the basis for that question is, when I look at your -- where your foundry and logic growth is tracking overall for this year, it seems to be maybe a little bit more muted, especially relative to memory, trailing behind overall foundry logic as we see it. What -- how should we interpret that? Is that more of a digestion sort of period after multiple years of very strong growth in that segment? Is it more of a mix factor or a timing factor? And is it really just gate-all-around coming back next year that could help return that part of your business to growth?

Gabriel Waisman

Thank you, Michael. So I wouldn't say it's muted. We do see meaningful growth for us in logic -- logic and foundry. In both advanced and mature nodes, by the way, and I'll speak to it a bit later. In the advanced logic nodes, the transition to gate-all-around is definitely increasing intensity overall. And I believe that it will also help our growth in that respect, both the intensity as well as our share with the customers. And talking about logic, I would indicate the mature nodes, especially China, whereas in the third quarter, we did see an increase in both revenue and in share of sales. But overall, this year, we expect China's share to be lower than 2025, but still nominally grow.

Michael Mani

Got it. And for my follow-up, I think on Metrion, you've mentioned before [indiscernible] that all 5 major customers by end of next year. I think qualifications are still progressing. So how many of the 5 are fully manufactured today versus still in qualification? What do you see as the time line and the gating factors for the remaining ones to get to that milestone?

Gabriel Waisman

So we currently -- it's a great question. Thank you, Michael. We do see right now 4 out of the 5 already adopting the Metrion either in high-volume manufacturing proliferation or evaluations. I do hope to conclude the fifth next year. And we see strong demand for the Metrion. There are longer lead times for this tool, but we're very encouraged by the market demand.

Operator

And the next question comes from Charles Shi with Needham.

Yu Shi

Maybe first, I want to clarify and maybe help us unpack the Q3 results and Q4 guidance a little bit. I think that roughly 90 days ago, we were under the impression that half-over-half growth for this year is probably in the high-teens range. And obviously, I think it's going to beat and raise quarter-to-quarter. That's what Nova does. But now based on your guidance, it seems like it's going to be half-over-half, 22%. Wonder if relative to the expectation, what has changed and what's driving the upside? That's the first question.

Gabriel Waisman

So thank you, Charles. I believe that it's more or less in line with our initial expectations. So I don't think that we deviate from the previous forecast and expectation of having a stronger second half to the first one. It might be a bit higher in terms of the strength, but it's still in line with the expectation. But we are doing -- we are encouraged, as I mentioned before, by the momentum, and we expect it to continue next year as well.

Yu Shi

Maybe a follow-up question on material, the competition new entrants you mentioned about and we know you have X-ray, you have Raman, you have SIMS, and these are all material technologies. But where exactly -- which technology you are seeing new entrants, especially if it's X-ray, can you be a little bit more specific because there are all kinds of X-ray technology, XRF/XPS is where you play, but there is X-ray CT, there's X-ray SDD. So kind of unpack a little bit for us what the new entrants you are seeing and that -- how you intend to maintain your competitive lead?

Gabriel Waisman

Thank you, Charles. So definitely, thank you for the question. The competition we are seeing or we will see, it's not here yet, and we need to be a bit more cautious about it. We'll probably see something initial. I'm not sure that it will be meaningful, but towards the second half of next year, but it's centered around XPS only. So we don't see this across the board in our material metrology portfolio, but XPS only. Nova does have a very extensive XPS plus XRF portfolio. We are not selling, by the way, XRF as a stand-alone tool. It's a part or an addition to the XPS capabilities, augmenting the overall application space and value of the tool.

The investment, as always, is on the 2-pronged approach on both technology and cost of ownership. So we are investing significantly, and we're releasing new products, new XPS products that are providing higher performance and better cost of ownership. And we've doubled down on investments in order to make sure that future generations of tools will have a very significant gap in offering value to customers.

Operator

And the next question comes from Tom O'Malley with Barclays.

Robert Smith

This is Trip Smith on for Tom O'Malley. I was just curious if you could expand on the qualification and completed acceptance of the AncoScene product. I was just curious if there was like a timing on that after the high-volume manufacturing by the leading foundry. And then any kind of color on the competitive space in the front-end chemicals metrology area versus like the larger incumbent and how you're gaining share there?

Gabriel Waisman

Definitely. So first of all, I'll start with saying that front-end chemical metrology extends our chemical metrology presence beyond our historical strength in back-end application. And the first quarter was a record quarter for chemical metrology in general, where specifically the AncoScene completed acceptance and was released into HBM as a leading foundry. And we're currently at additional customer penetration stages, and we gained market share, which is occurring across several geographies. We have one competitor in the chemical metrology front-end space, which is KLA, and we are offering very unique value to our customers in that -- with that tool.

Robert Smith

And then maybe just as a follow-up. I think we've heard a little bit about this in the industry, but based on your guide, it kind of implies a flattish to down gross margin. I was just curious if that's coming from continued memory headwinds or broader supply constraints and how you guys are managing those.

Guy Kizner

Yes. So we -- our gross margin this quarter was 59%, and we guided next quarter also 59%. So we don't see a reduction. Obviously, the gross margin for the next quarter can fluctuate plus/minus 1%, but we don't see currently any headwinds on the gross margin side.

Operator

And the next question comes from Vedvati Shrotre with Evercore ISI.

Vedvati Shrotre

So you've previously outlined $500 million revenue opportunity with -- cumulative revenue opportunity through '26, right? Where do we stand against that today? And with TSMC expecting N2 or their -- N2 capacity almost doubling in 2027, like how should we think about your annual gate-all-around revenues next year? Could they scale similarly? Like could you see them double?

Gabriel Waisman

So thank you, Vedvati, for the question. We are on track with the accumulated revenue from '24 to '26 of a total of $500 million. And we are very encouraged by the shift towards increasing investments in gate-all-around. I definitely believe that this is providing a tailwind for the company. I think it's a bit early to assess or provide some color on the number, but we do see growth year-over-year in our gate-all-around process control revenue.

Vedvati Shrotre

Understand. And for my follow-up question on gross margins, I understand you'll be flat in December quarter. But as we go through the year, could you talk about the headwinds you're seeing or the tailwinds you're seeing? Like one aspect is you're also expanding your manufacturing facilities in Asia. So what would be the impact of that to the gross margins?

Guy Kizner

Yes. So when we are looking beyond fourth quarter, we do see cost increase, but the cost increase is being offset by better operational efficiency and higher volumes. We also typically adjust pricing when we introduce new capabilities that add value for our customers, whether through unique metrology capabilities or productivity improvements. And as we mentioned on the last earnings call, we do have several initiatives already in the pipeline that we expect to announce in the future, which should further support this trend.

Operator

This concludes our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Gaby Waisman, Nova's President and CEO, for any closing remarks.

Gabriel Waisman

Thank you, operator, and thank you all for joining our call today.

Operator

The conference has concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.