Cuộc họp công bố kết quả kinh doanh Quý 3/2026 của Finance of America (FOA): Sản lượng tăng 24%, Rút lại dự báo EPS

Điểm tin chính

• Sản lượng tài trợ trong quý 3/2026 đạt 748 triệu USD, tăng 24% so với cùng kỳ năm trước và tăng 2% so với quý trước. Sản lượng lũy kế từ đầu năm đến nay tăng 17% lên khoảng 2,1 tỷ USD.
• Finance of America báo cáo khoản lỗ trước thuế theo chuẩn mực GAAP là 130 triệu USD, chủ yếu do biến động giá trị hợp lý phi tiền mặt của các tài sản còn lại. Lợi nhuận ròng đã điều chỉnh đạt 6 triệu USD, tương đương 0,28 USD mỗi cổ phiếu.
• Biên doanh thu mảng Giải pháp Hưu trí giảm xuống 9,0% từ mức 11,3% của một năm trước đó, so với mức trung bình lịch sử 10,7% tính từ đầu năm 2024. Ban lãnh đạo kỳ vọng các điều chỉnh về giá, tỷ lệ LTV và lãi suất sẽ giúp khôi phục biên lợi nhuận trong nửa đầu năm 2027.
• Sản lượng tài trợ kênh bán lẻ tăng 54% so với cùng kỳ năm trước lên 303 triệu USD. Sản lượng trung bình hàng tháng trên mỗi nhân viên tín dụng đạt 1,2 triệu USD, tăng hơn 40%, trong khi tổng số lượng nhân sự bán lẻ về cơ bản không đổi.
• Công ty không còn kỳ vọng đạt được dự báo EPS đã điều chỉnh cả năm 2026 ở mức 4,50-5,00 USD như trước đây. Ban lãnh đạo dự kiến lợi nhuận đã điều chỉnh trong quý 4 sẽ tương đương với kết quả quý 3.
• Đối với năm 2027, ban lãnh đạo dự báo sản lượng tài trợ đạt 3,1 tỷ - 3,4 tỷ USD và tốc độ EPS đã điều chỉnh quy năm đạt khoảng 4-5 USD trong nửa cuối năm.

Dữ liệu tài chính chính

Kết quả kinh doanh và hoạt động

Bán buôn tiếp tục là kênh lớn nhất của Finance of America khi chiếm gần 60% sản lượng tài trợ. Kênh này đã tài trợ 444 triệu USD trong quý, tăng 10% so với cùng kỳ năm trước. Hồ sơ đăng ký kênh bán buôn đạt 625 triệu USD, tăng 6% so với quý trước và đạt mức cao nhất trong 7 quý.

Sản lượng tài trợ kênh bán lẻ tăng 11% so với quý trước và tăng 54% so với cùng kỳ năm trước lên 303 triệu USD. Mặc dù số lượng cơ hội ít hơn 12% so với quý 2, số lượng hồ sơ nộp vẫn ổn định và các khoản vay được tài trợ tăng 9%. Ban lãnh đạo cho biết sự cải thiện này là nhờ tập trung vào các cơ hội chất lượng cao hơn và đầu tư vào công nghệ.

Tăng trưởng sản phẩm diễn ra trên diện rộng. Sản lượng HECM tăng 14% so với cùng kỳ năm trước, sản lượng HomeSafe thế chấp thứ nhất tăng 15%, và HomeSafe Second tăng 63%. Công ty có kế hoạch ra mắt phiên bản hạn mức tín dụng của HomeSafe Second và mở rộng danh mục sản phẩm thế chấp nhà dựa trên giá trị tài sản ròng trong năm 2027.

Các chỉ số phễu kỹ thuật số cũng được cải thiện. Số lượt bắt đầu sơ tuyển tăng 89%, các cơ hội kỹ thuật số tăng 61%, và thời gian trung bình từ khi tiếp cận khách hàng tiềm năng đến khi hoàn tất đơn đăng ký giảm xuống dưới 6 ngày từ mức khoảng 20 ngày.

Dự báo của Ban lãnh đạo

Ban lãnh đạo dự kiến sản lượng tài trợ cả năm 2026 sẽ kết thúc ở mức thấp trong khoảng dự báo đã công bố trước đó. Tuy nhiên, công ty đã rút lại dự báo EPS đã điều chỉnh trước đó là 4,50-5,00 USD do biên lợi nhuận quý 3 thấp hơn và thời gian cần thiết để mức giá điều chỉnh có hiệu lực trong toàn bộ quy trình xử lý khoản vay.

Lợi nhuận đã điều chỉnh trong quý 4 dự kiến sẽ tương đương với quý 3, khi Finance of America đạt lợi nhuận ròng đã điều chỉnh là 6 triệu USD và EPS đã điều chỉnh là 0,28 USD.

Cho năm 2027, công ty dự kiến sản lượng tài trợ đạt 3,1 tỷ - 3,4 tỷ USD. Ban lãnh đạo đặt mục tiêu đưa biên doanh thu trở lại mức trung bình lịch sử 10,7% trong nửa đầu năm, nhờ sự hỗ trợ từ các thay đổi về giá sản phẩm, tỷ lệ LTV và lãi suất.

Sản lượng cao hơn và biên lợi nhuận bình thường hóa dự kiến sẽ hỗ trợ tốc độ EPS đã điều chỉnh quy năm đạt khoảng 4-5 USD trong nửa cuối năm 2027. Ban lãnh đạo cho biết điều này sẽ bị bù trừ một phần bởi lợi nhuận mảng Quản lý danh mục thấp hơn do tỷ lệ chiết khấu cao hơn.

Công ty có kế hoạch hoàn trả 60 triệu USD trái phiếu bảo đảm cao cấp và gia hạn khoảng 90 triệu USD còn lại đến tháng 11/2027. Ban lãnh đạo bày tỏ sự tự tin rằng các hoạt động cốt lõi, hoạt động thu hồi và tái phát hành chứng khoán hóa, cùng tiềm năng tài trợ vốn cho tài sản HECM MSR sẽ hỗ trợ việc hoàn trả khoản nợ còn lại.

Rủi ro và các yếu tố cần theo dõi

Lợi suất trái phiếu Kho bạc Mỹ kỳ hạn 10 năm đã tăng hơn 75 điểm cơ bản trong quý 3, gây áp lực lên biên lợi nhuận phát hành và tạo ra các điều chỉnh giá trị hợp lý phi tiền mặt bất lợi. Ban lãnh đạo nhấn mạnh rằng dòng tiền danh nghĩa dự kiến từ các tài sản danh mục chịu ảnh hưởng không thay đổi đáng kể.

Sự phục hồi biên lợi nhuận phụ thuộc vào việc mức giá điều chỉnh thẩm thấu qua chu kỳ tài trợ thế chấp ngược có thể mất từ 60 đến 90 ngày. Các thay đổi lãi suất tiếp theo có thể yêu cầu điều chỉnh thêm về giá, tỷ lệ LTV và các điều khoản sản phẩm.

Ban lãnh đạo cũng lưu ý rằng sản lượng tài trợ quý 1 thường là thấp nhất trong năm do số lượng hồ sơ nộp giảm trong kỳ nghỉ lễ. Yếu tố mùa vụ này là một lý do khiến mục tiêu tốc độ EPS đã điều chỉnh của công ty được áp dụng cho nửa cuối năm 2027 thay vì cả năm.

Tóm tắt phiên Hỏi & Đáp với chuyên gia phân tích

Các chuyên gia phân tích tập trung vào lộ trình trở lại mức biên lợi nhuận lịch sử. Ban lãnh đạo cho biết những thay đổi gần đây về giá, tỷ lệ LTV và lãi suất sẽ giúp khôi phục biên doanh thu trung bình tiến về mức 10,7% khi các khoản vay cũ trong quy trình được thay thế bằng sản lượng với mức giá mới. Triển vọng năm 2027 không giả định một lộ trình lãi suất cụ thể nào.

Về phân bổ vốn, ban lãnh đạo cho biết việc mua lại cổ phiếu và chia cổ tức có thể trở thành các phương án sử dụng tiền mặt tiềm năng sau khi khoảng 90 triệu USD nợ còn lại được thanh toán. Không có mốc thời gian hoặc quy mô cụ thể nào được đưa ra.

Ban lãnh đạo cũng cho biết họ kỳ vọng việc tài trợ vốn tiềm năng cho tài sản HECM MSR trong nửa đầu năm 2027 sẽ tạo ra thêm tiền mặt, cùng với dòng tiền từ hoạt động kinh doanh và các hoạt động liên quan đến chứng khoán hóa.

Toàn văn Biên bản Cuộc họp Báo cáo Lợi nhuận

Toàn văn cuộc gọi công bố kết quả kinh doanh

Phần trình bày của ban lãnh đạo

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. My name is Hilary, and I'll be your conference moderator today. At this time, I'd like to welcome you to the Finance of America Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Call. [Operator Instructions]

I will now turn the call over to Michael Fant, Senior Vice President of Finance. You may begin.

Michael Fant

Thank you, and good afternoon, everyone, and welcome to Finance of America's Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Call. With me today are Graham Fleming, Chief Executive Officer; Kristen Sieffert, President; and Matt Engel, Chief Financial Officer.

As a reminder, this call is being recorded, and you can find the earnings release and related presentation on our Investor Relations website at ir.financeofamericacompanies.com.

Also, I would like to remind everyone that comments on this conference call may be forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 regarding the company's expected operating and financial performance for future periods. These statements are based on the company's current expectations and are subject to the safe harbor statement for forward-looking statements that you will find in today's earnings release and related presentation. Actual results for future periods may differ materially from those expressed or implied by these forward-looking statements due to a number of risks or other factors, including those that are described in the Risk Factors section of Finance of America's annual report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2025, filed with the SEC on March 13, 2026. Such risk factors may be amended and updated in our subsequent filings with the SEC. We are not undertaking any commitment to update these statements if conditions change.

Please note, today, we will be discussing interim period financials for our continuing operations, which are unaudited. In addition, we will refer to certain non-GAAP financial measures on this call. You can find reconciliations of non-GAAP to GAAP financial measures to the extent available without unreasonable efforts in our earnings press release and presentation on the Investor Relations page of our website.

Now I'll turn the call over to our Chief Executive Officer, Graham Fleming. Graham?

Graham Fleming

Thank you, Michael. Good afternoon, everyone, and thank you for joining us today. Before I go through the quarter in detail, I want to give you the 5 key takeaways from today's call. Everything in the rest of this call and the accompanying materials is an elaboration on these 5 points.

First, our volume this quarter grew 24% year-over-year, and we expect continued growth both in 2027 and beyond based on demographic trends and continued product development. Second, our retail platform is becoming more efficient and productive. Productivity per loan officer is up 40% compared to the third quarter of 2025. Third, margins compressed as the Fed shifted from cutting to raising interest rates. We have already made the necessary changes to product pricing, and we expect margins to return to historical levels in the first half of 2027.

Fourth, we have generated $145 million of cash from originations and capital markets activities year-to-date, including $33 million of cash this quarter, which we have used to complete several capital actions this year. And finally, we expect adjusted earnings per share of between $4 to $5 on an annual run rate basis during the second half of 2027, driven by higher volume and normalized margins, partially offset by lower portfolio management earnings resulting from higher discount rates.

Turning to Slide 5. Third quarter funded volume was $748 million, compared with $730 million in Q2 2026 and $603 million in Q3 2025, that means growth both sequentially and year-over-year. Through September, year-to-date production was approximately $2.1 billion versus $1.8 billion in the first 9 months of 2025 or an increase of 17% year-over-year. That progress is part of the longer story.

Since 2023, we have been investing in a more focused reverse mortgage platform, a broader proprietary product offering and the technology and distribution capabilities needed to reach more homeowners. Finance of America has grown volumes on average by 20% each year since 2023.

The third quarter was a challenging rate environment with the 10-year Treasury yields increasing over 75 basis points during the quarter, a reaction to the Fed's pivot to raising rates and elevated inflation. Higher rates create 2 distinct challenges, noncash fair value adjustments to certain assets within our portfolio and near-term pressure on origination margins and inventory due to the challenge of repricing customers already in our pipeline.

During the first 9 months of 2026, we recorded $167 million in unfavorable noncash changes in fair value of our portfolio assets and liabilities. That same mechanism produced $161 million in positive fair value changes during the first 9 months of 2025. This is primarily a discount rate effect, not a cash flow effect. The expected nominal cash flows from these assets has not materially changed.

Additionally, our Retirement Solutions revenue margin was impacted in the third quarter, decreasing to 9% compared with 11.3% in the third quarter of 2025 and a historical average since the start of 2024 of 10.7%. We believe these impacts are temporary and do not change the underlying fundamentals of our business.

Notably, neither of these challenges change the long-term demand for our products nor the opportunity we see to continue scaling our platform. In fact, we have successfully navigated similar periods before, such as 2022 when the Fed raised rates 7x for a total of 425 basis points. When rising rates reduced margins, we responded with product and pricing changes that improve the economics of new production over time.

During October, we made the necessary changes to our product offerings, and we expect that our revenue margin will return to our historical averages over the first half of 2027. While the near-term interest rate environment remains dynamic, we continue to focus on the levers within our control, pricing appropriately for the environment, improving conversion and productivity, managing costs and preserving financial flexibility.

With respect to capital allocation, we will repay $60 million of our senior secured notes and we will exercise our right to extend the remaining approximately $90 million to November 2027. We believe that in the current environment, this is a prudent choice as this increases the company's financial flexibility.

Before I turn it over to Kristen and Matt, I want to take a moment to acknowledge our team. Thanks to the hard work, our operating strategy is delivering on production and productivity.

And with that, I will turn the call over to Kristen.

Kristen Sieffert

Thanks, Graham, and good afternoon, everyone. Last quarter, I highlighted an important evolution in our business, our ability to generate more production from the opportunities already entering our platform. This quarter proved it under pressure.

Against the capital markets headwinds Graham described, that shift matters more than ever, and our focus remains on 3 things: sustaining growth, increasing productivity and turning our investments into compounding benefits. First, production growth remained resilient in a difficult market. We funded 24% more this quarter than in the third quarter of last year.

Turning to Slide 7. The contrast with the traditional mortgage market is stark. From 2024 through our 2027 outlook, our funded volume grows more than 60%, better than 17% per year. The forward mortgage industry grows about 6% a year over the same period. Next year, per the recent MBA forecast, the forward market shrinks by 5% against double-digit growth for FOA. The difference is demand. Ours is driven by retirement need, not refinancing incentives. Higher rates affect borrower proceeds, but they do not eliminate our customers' need for financial flexibility in retirement.

On Slide 8, we show the consistent growth our platform has experienced. Since 2023, our submission volumes have increased by 21% annually, while our funded volumes grown by 20% annually. This is across our product suite as HECM volume is up 14% year-over-year, HomeSafe first liens are up 15% and HomeSafe Second are up 63%. That breadth is deliberate. Each of our products serves a different homeowner need, and together, they give us multiple paths to growth even when pricing pressure affects individual products. That's why in a quarter when benchmark rates rose sharply and traditional mortgage industry applications declined, our submission volume grew by 20% and our funded UPB grew by 24% year-over-year. Our growth comes from conversion, productivity and product range and our 2027 outlook assumes no benefit from rates.

Wholesale remains our largest channel, representing nearly 60% of funded volume. It funded $444 million in the quarter, up 10% year-over-year, and submissions reached $625 million, up 6% sequentially and the highest level in 7 quarters. Second, our operating model is becoming more productive. Retail funded volume increased 11% sequentially and 54% year-over-year to $303 million.

Slide 9 shows how even with 12% fewer opportunities than in Q2, which was a result of a deliberate shift to quality over quantity, submissions held steady and funded loans rose 9%. This continued move to quality, coupled with our technology advancements, lifted production per loan officer to an average of $1.2 million per month in the third quarter, up nearly 9% sequentially and more than 40% year-over-year. Productivity has risen year-over-year in each quarter of 2026, and the gain is not a denominator effect. Total retail headcount is essentially unchanged from a year ago.

Third, the investments we made this year were built to compound. We expect to keep improving retail funnel conversion and loan officer productivity in 2027 and to deliver continued efficiency gains in operations and our G&A expenses as volume grows over a stable cost base.

Our digital platform is scaling. In the third quarter, prequalification starts rose 89%, digital opportunities grew 61% and time from lead to application fell to under 6 days from roughly 20. And new website launches in the first half of 2027 will lift funnel conversion further.

We are also broadening our product suite. The line of credit version of HomeSafe Second launches soon. And next year, we will expand the suite further as we move from the leader in reverse mortgages toward becoming the leader in home equity solutions for retirement.

We cannot control where rates go. We can control conversion, cost and pricing, and we are getting better at all 3. Our growth is driven by demographics, not the rate cycle, and that is why we expect to keep growing through this market and to convert that growth into stronger, more consistent earnings power.

With that, I'll turn it over to Matt.

Matthew Engel

Thank you, Kristen. Good afternoon, everyone. On a GAAP basis, the company recognized a pretax loss of $130 million, primarily reflecting noncash fair value changes on residual assets, partially offset by a reduction in the fair value liability of our convertible notes. It is important to distinguish these noncash fair value adjustments from the underlying economics of our portfolio. While changes in market rates affect the current valuation of certain assets, these assets continue to accrete, and we ultimately expect to monetize these assets over time. We continue to believe our residual assets represent meaningful long-term economic value, and our focus remains on managing the portfolio to maximize that value.

As shown on Slide 10, adjusted net income for the quarter was $6 million or $0.28 per share. As Graham and Kristen mentioned, the key driver of lower adjusted earnings was lower revenue margins in our Retirement Solutions segment. These results were impacted by the increase in benchmark rates during the third quarter. We consider these as temporary in nature, not because we anticipate the rate environment to move in our favor, but because of the nature of our platform.

Although fair values declined, our Portfolio Management segment still generated adjusted net income of $11 million as our portfolio continued to accrete a yield in the mid-teens against retained beneficial interest of approximately $500 million.

Cost discipline remained a key focus as well. Total expenses, excluding securitization-related expenses, increased by only $2 million, with this coming from an increase in subservicing expense associated with the HECM portfolio we acquired on June 30.

Variable compensation rose with the growth in our retail platform Kristen mentioned, and this was offset by a reduction in marketing expense as we focus our efforts on higher-value opportunities.

Turning to the balance sheet. Our cash and cash equivalents increased to $118 million as of September 30 as we generated $33 million over the prior quarter. For the year, we have generated $145 million in cash from originations and capital markets activity, which we have used to complete several significant capital transactions, including the repurchase of Blackstone's remaining equity position and the acquisition of Onity's HECM servicing portfolio.

Leveraging our strong cash position, we will complete the $60 million paydown on our senior secured notes later this month.

Looking forward, we expect to achieve the low end of our previously communicated full year 2026 funded volume guidance range of $2.8 billion to $3.8 billion -- $3.1 billion, excuse me. However, we no longer expect to achieve our adjusted EPS guidance for the full year 2026 of $4.50 to $5 as a result of the decreased margins in the third quarter and the time it takes for the changes we have already made to make their way through our pipeline. We anticipate the fourth quarter will approximate our third quarter adjusted earnings results.

Looking ahead to 2027, we expect funded volume to reach $3.1 billion to $3.4 billion, a growth rate similar to what we have achieved over the past several years, supported by consumer demographics, our product breadth and ongoing conversion improvements. This increase in funded volume, combined with the expected return to normalized margins by product and channel, though partially offset by lower portfolio management earnings resulting from the higher discount rates, should allow Finance of America to achieve a run rate adjusted earnings per share of approximately $4 to $5 on an annualized basis during the second half of 2027.

Looking ahead, our priorities are unchanged, continue to grow our operating platform to produce strong recurring earnings, maintain sufficient liquidity to support the business and allocate capital where we believe it can produce the most attractive risk-adjusted returns.

With that, I will turn the call back to Graham for closing remarks.

Graham Fleming

Thank you, Matt. We have built a platform capable of delivering sustained production growth across different market environments, and this quarter demonstrated that progress. While the current rate environment has pressured earnings, we have taken action to improve margins and remain focused on increasing productivity, generating cash and maintaining financial flexibility.

Looking ahead, we are confident that the long-term demand for home equity solutions remains substantial. With our leading market position, expanding product offerings and continued operational improvements, we are well positioned to capitalize on this opportunity and translate our growth into stronger earnings over time.

And with that, I'll open the call to questions.

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Your first question comes from the line of Gaurav Mehta from Alliance Global Partners.

Phần hỏi đáp

Gaurav Mehta

Matt, I wanted to go back to your comments about your expectations of revenue margins expected to go back to historical trends, and you talked about some pricing and product adjustments that you have made. Can you maybe provide some more color on those adjustments and what gives you confidence that you can get back to the historical revenue margins in a high rate environment?

Matthew Engel

I guess a couple of things, Gaurav. We have made changes to our pricing already in the last few weeks to LTVs and interest rates that we believe will restore those margins back to our historical levels. On top of that, of course, we don't know where the rates will go in the future, but rates have come back quite a bit during the month of October. And so we feel pretty confident that heading into 2027, as the pipeline with the old rates and LTVs works its way through that the new production coming in will be at that margin.

So our guidance kind of reflects that Q4 will still be a little bit down on the margin because we have that pipeline still coming through. But then as the new production starts to come through in the first quarter, we expect those margins to get back to historical levels.

Gaurav Mehta

Okay. And as a follow-up, can you also maybe discuss what your interest rate assumption is for your 2027 guidance?

Graham Fleming

What was the first part of the question, Gaurav?

Unknown Executive

Interest rate assumption for 2027.

Graham Fleming

We're agnostic to the interest rate environment. We'll adjust our products, our rates and our LTVs to yield the revenue margin -- the historical revenue margin that we had, which is, as I said in my remarks, 10.7%. So we will adjust our products to achieve that revenue margin. We don't have an expectation for interest rates in 2027. That's not -- we'll react to whatever the [indiscernible].

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Timothy D'Agostino from B. Riley.

Timothy D'Agostino

I guess just quickly circling back on the guidance. You mentioned your margins should return in the first half of '27, I believe you said the first quarter. So I guess thinking about the $4 to $5 of adjusted EBITDA or EPS, sorry, run rate for the second half of 2027. I guess it kind of -- it would be good to get some color on why you're leaning away from the first half. Again, you expect margins to return. Are there anything else -- is there anything else you want to kind of flag for the first half as to why you're maybe not talk about touching guidance there?

Graham Fleming

Yes. We just have a longer lead time with reverse mortgages as a senior cycle. So we don't have an application to funding cycle that's, call it, 21 days or 30 days, right? Consumers need to go through counseling, right? We need to go through process. We just have a longer lead time. And when we bring new submissions into the pipeline and new leads into the call center, it's roughly a 60- or 90-day time line before they turn into funded inventory. So that's the reason for potentially having a longer time line.

So I'm not going to say it won't be the first quarter, but we also -- look, we just had midterms today, potentially rates move again in December, maybe one more time, right, which will cause us to move our margins again. So we're probably building in a little bit of cushion. We're just a little uncertain if the rates are going to move 1 or 2 more times, and we'll have to adjust our products and margins again to match that.

Matthew Engel

I would probably add to that as well. If you look at our funding patterns in the last few years, generally, our first quarter fundings are the lowest of the year, submissions dip a little bit over the holiday period. So we still expect strong year-over-year growth, but sequentially, that Q1 is usually our softest. So it's a combination of what Graham said and perhaps that pattern as well.

Timothy D'Agostino

Okay. That's helpful. And then if I could just ask a second one. Just on cash and capital allocation, you had mentioned using cash for Onity HECM servicing portfolio, Blackstone equity position, thinking out to now November, you have the $60 million of debt. So I guess, capital allocation and cash use in 2027, outside of that additional $90 million worth of debt, how else could you return capital to shareholders? Can you share with us maybe plans on that? Could it be potential share buybacks, a dividend? Just kind of trying to understand how you think about that.

Graham Fleming

Yes, all of the above. Like once we retire the $90 million, we are continuing to generate cash through our operations and our [indiscernible] activity on the balance sheet. So yes, share buybacks and dividends are both likely outcomes once we retire the $90 million unsecured debt.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Gabe Poggi from Raymond James.

Gabriel Poggi

So my first question is you guys are going to pay down $60 million on the notes this month. Can we just walk through and it kind of piggybacks on Tim's prior question, kind of how you're thinking about cash usage, et cetera, to get to the $90 million a year from now? That's 2?

Matthew Engel

Yes. I guess a couple of things, Gabe. I think, first, as Graham mentioned, we have a number of prior securitizations that we have continued to call and reissue activity. So we expect over the course of 2027 to generate additional cash from that activity. And then also, as we've talked about in prior calls, we are still pursuing financing on our HECM MSR asset that we don't know the exact timing of that, but we expect that certainly in the first half of '27, generated significant additional cash from that as well. So core operations, the call and reissue activity and the HECM MSR, the combination of those 3 gives us high level of confidence that the $90 million will be easily paid off at the end of next year.

Gabriel Poggi

Got it. And then I had a question on -- you guys talked about returning to historical margins late -- I guess, late one half '27, and that's been the inflection point to get to your new guidance in the back half of the year. What exactly is that historical margin number that you guys are using or pointing to just for modeling purposes? I know you've given some volume guidance, but where do you think margins should shake out or could shake out as we get towards the back half of next year?

Matthew Engel

So I'd say, on average, that historical margin is about 10.7%, right? We've seen some quarters higher than that. We've seen some quarters lower than that, right, as things change. But that's the number we're kind of targeting. Again, I think we'll get back to those margins in the first half of '27. The volume, we're down a little bit in Q1, most likely and then starting to hit our stride in Q2 seasonally. And so that's what really kind of leads to the guidance for the second half of the year.

Operator

This concludes our Q&A session. I will now turn the call back to Graham Fleming for closing remarks.

Graham Fleming

Yes. I want to thank everybody for joining our call today, and we look forward to updating you in March on our full year 2026 results. Thank you very much, everybody, for joining the call today.

Operator

This concludes today's call. Thank you for attending. You may now disconnect.