US Stock Weekly Report

2026-04-20

Previous Week’s Market Review & Analysis

The U.S. labor market showed resilience, with March 2026 nonfarm payrolls increasing by a better-than-expected 178,000 jobs, and the unemployment rate ticking down to 4.3%. This performance countered earlier pessimistic forecasts, though job openings remained at their lowest since 2020, indicating a "low-hire, low-fire" environment. The Producer Price Index (PPI) for March 2026 was released on April 14. March 2026 Consumer Price Index (CPI) data showed headline inflation reached a two-year high, largely driven by a 21% surge in gasoline prices, while core inflation held relatively stable. Consumer sentiment, as measured in early April, hit an all-time low, reflecting broad concerns over high prices and declining asset values. The Federal Reserve maintained its stance on interest rates, with no further cuts made in its initial two meetings this year, and elevated energy prices fueled expectations for prolonged higher rates. The ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict and the stability of the Strait of Hormuz remained a critical macroeconomic factor.

U.S. equity markets began the week positively on Monday, April 13, buoyed by hopes for a resolution in the Middle East conflict and moderating oil prices. The S&P 500 rose 1% to 6,886.24, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.6% to 48,218.25, and the Nasdaq Composite advanced 1.2% to 23,183.74. The Russell 2000 also increased by 1.5%.

Key Q1 2026 earnings reports were anticipated throughout the week (April 13-17) from major companies including JPMorgan Chase, Taiwan Semiconductor, Netflix, Goldman Sachs, and Fastenal. Chicago Federal Reserve President Austan Goolsbee suggested that oil futures markets anticipate a temporary surge in oil prices, limiting the overall economic impact.

Global equity funds recorded their fourth consecutive weekly inflow through April 15, totaling $31.26 billion, with U.S. equity funds receiving $21.25 billion. Technology, industrial, and metals & mining sectors led the $6.74 billion in sectoral net purchases. Conversely, money market funds experienced significant net sales of $173.24 billion. Investor sentiment was the most bearish in 10 months in early April, leading to a decrease in global equity allocation. However, investors displayed cautious optimism about a potential Middle East resolution. Overall, the market navigated the week balancing geopolitical uncertainties and mixed economic data, demonstrating resilience in equities despite lingering caution.

Next Week’s key market drivers & Investment Outlook

The week of April 20-26, 2026, is set for significant macro-economic data releases, including U.S. Retail Sales, Canada's Inflation Rate, and the UK's inflation figures. Flash PMIs for Germany and the UK, Japan's CPI, and Germany's Ifo survey are also scheduled. Earnings season continues with reports from Tesla (April 22), 3M, GE Aerospace, Intuitive Surgical, Chubb, Capital One Financial, Danaher, Northrop Grumman, RTX, and UnitedHealth Group (all on April 21). The IMF Spring Meetings will conclude.

Market logic will likely be shaped by whether incoming data reinforces inflation concerns or shifts focus toward slowing growth. Strong retail sales could bolster the dollar, while weaker figures might raise questions about U.S. economic momentum. Investment strategies should brace for potential volatility given ongoing geopolitical risks. Loomis Sayles anticipates double-digit S&P 500 earnings growth for 2026. Navigen Wealth Management advises reducing U.S. equity exposure to underweight due to a negative intermediate-term trend, despite a positive long-term outlook.

Key risk alerts include the continued Middle East conflict, particularly regarding the Strait of Hormuz, which could escalate energy prices and disrupt supply chains. Persistent inflationary pressures, especially from energy costs, remain a concern influencing central bank policy. The interplay between labor market conditions, consumer sentiment, and overall economic growth will be crucial to monitor.