การแถลงผลประกอบการไตรมาส 3 ปี 2026 ของ JBT Marel (JBTM): อัตรากำไร EBITDA สูงสุดเป็นประวัติการณ์ ปรับปรุงแนวโน้มผลประกอบการ

สาระสำคัญ

• เจบีที มาเรล (JBT Marel) รายงานรายได้ไตรมาส 3 ปี 2026 ที่ 994 ล้านดอลลาร์ ลดลง 1% เมื่อเทียบรายปี เนื่องจากเติบโตในกลุ่ม Protein Solutions ถูกชดเชยด้วยอุปสงค์ที่อ่อนตัวลงในส่วนที่เกี่ยวข้องกับสินค้าอุปโภคบริโภค (CPG)
• EBITDA ปรับปรุงแล้วเพิ่มขึ้น 5% สู่ระดับสูงสุดเป็นประวัติการณ์ที่ 179 ล้านดอลลาร์ ขณะที่อัตรากำไร EBITDA ปรับปรุงแล้วแตะระดับสูงสุดเป็นประวัติการณ์ที่ 18% โดยได้รับแรงหนุนจากการกำหนดราคา การประหยัดต้นทุน การทำงานร่วมกันจากการควบรวมกิจการ และการปรับปรุงพื้นที่ดำเนินงานให้เหมาะสม
• รายได้จากกลุ่ม Protein Solutions เพิ่มขึ้น 6% โดยได้รับแรงหนุนจากปริมาณการผลิตเนื้อสัตว์ปีก ขณะที่รายได้จากกลุ่ม Prepared Food & Beverage Solutions ลดลง 6% เนื่องจากกิจกรรมการรับคำสั่งซื้อและจัดส่งสินค้า (book-and-ship) ที่ลดลงในกลุ่ม Diversified Food & Health
• คำสั่งซื้ออุปกรณ์เพิ่มขึ้น 3% เมื่อเทียบรายปีในไตรมาสนี้ และเพิ่มขึ้น 10% ตั้งแต่ต้นปีจนถึงปัจจุบัน โดยผู้บริหารได้เน้นย้ำถึงแรงส่งที่แข็งแกร่งของธุรกิจเนื้อสัตว์ปีกทั่วโลก รวมถึงโครงการ CPG ขนาดใหญ่ขึ้นที่มีกำหนดดำเนินงานในปี 2027
• คาดการณ์รายได้ตลอดทั้งปีถูกปรับเป็น 3.95 พันล้าน - 4.00 พันล้านดอลลาร์ ขณะที่คาดการณ์อัตรากำไร EBITDA ปรับปรุงแล้วเพิ่มขึ้นเป็น 17.25% - 17.5% ส่วนคาดการณ์กำไรต่อหุ้น (EPS) ปรับปรุงแล้วเพิ่มขึ้นเป็น $8.10 - $8.40
• คณะกรรมการอนุมัติเพิ่มวงเงินซื้อหุ้นคืนเป็น 700 ล้านดอลลาร์ โดยผู้บริหารระบุว่าการซื้อหุ้นคืนจะทำตามจังหวะโอกาสที่เหมาะสม พร้อมทั้งรักษาอัตราส่วนหนี้สิน (leverage) ให้อยู่ระหว่าง 2.0 เท่า ถึง 2.5 เท่า

ข้อมูลทางการเงินที่สำคัญ

ผลการดำเนินงานทางธุรกิจและปฏิบัติการ

กลุ่ม Protein Solutions ยังคงเป็นกลไกหลักในการเติบโต รายได้เพิ่มขึ้น 6% เมื่อเทียบรายปี โดยมีสาเหตุหลักมาจากปริมาณการผลิตเนื้อสัตว์ปีก อัตรากำไรของกลุ่มเพิ่มขึ้น 110 basis points จากการประหยัดต่อขนาดของปริมาณการผลิต การผสมผสานผลิตภัณฑ์ การกำหนดราคา และการรับรู้ผลประโยชน์จากการประหยัดต้นทุนร่วมกัน

ผู้บริหารรายงานถึงแรงส่งที่แข็งแกร่งของธุรกิจเนื้อสัตว์ปีกทั่วโลกทั้งในส่วนการแปรรูปขั้นแรก ขั้นสอง และการแปรรูปขั้นสูง นอกจากนี้ยังระบุว่าตลาดแปรรูปเนื้อสัตว์ปีกขั้นแรกและขั้นสองในสหรัฐยังคงมีการลงทุนต่ำกว่ามาตรฐานโลก ซึ่งช่วยสนับสนุนอุปสงค์สำหรับระบบอัตโนมัติและการปรับปรุงให้ทันสมัย

รายได้จากกลุ่ม Prepared Food & Beverage Solutions ลดลง 6% โดยความกดดันหลักมาจากกลุ่ม Diversified Food & Health ซึ่งลูกค้าที่เกี่ยวข้องกับสินค้า CPG ลดการใช้จ่ายระยะสั้นลง ผู้บริหารคาดว่าธุรกิจดังกล่าวจะลดลงมากกว่า 10% สำหรับเต็มปี

การดำเนินงานอื่น ๆ ภายในกลุ่มมีผลการดำเนินงานที่ดีกว่า โดยกลุ่ม Prepared Foods มีการเติบโตในระหว่างไตรมาส ขณะที่กลุ่ม Warehouse Automation มีรายได้เติบโตและปรับปรุงต้นทุนได้อย่างมีนัยสำคัญหลังการปรับโครงสร้างในไตรมาสที่สอง ผู้บริหารระบุว่า Warehouse Automation เปลี่ยนจาก EBITDA ที่คุ้มทุนโดยประมาณมาเป็นการสร้างผลกำไรที่แข็งแกร่งในไตรมาสที่สาม และกำลังสร้างยอดขายรอรับรู้รายได้ (backlog) ขึ้นมาใหม่

อย่างไรก็ตาม อัตรากำไรของกลุ่ม Prepared Food & Beverage Solutions ปรับตัวดีขึ้น 90 basis points ผลประกอบการที่ดีขึ้นของ Warehouse Automation การประหยัดค่าใช้จ่าย สัดส่วนผลิตภัณฑ์ และการกำหนดราคา สามารถชดเชยผลกระทบจากปริมาณการขายที่ลดลงได้มากกว่า

เจบีที มาเรล ได้ปิดโรงงานผลิต ศูนย์กระจายสินค้า และศูนย์บริการรวม 5 แห่งในระหว่างไตรมาส รวมถึงโรงงานขนาดใหญ่ 1 แห่ง นอกจากนี้ยังมีการวางแผนดำเนินการปรับปรุงพื้นที่ดำเนินงานเพิ่มเติมจนถึงสิ้นปี 2027 โดยผู้บริหารระบุว่าค่ากลางของคาดการณ์อัตรากำไรปี 2026 คิดเป็นการขยายตัวของอัตรากำไร EBITDA ปรับปรุงแล้วมากกว่า 350 basis points เมื่อเทียบกับฐานปี 2024 ของทั้งสองบริษัทก่อนการควบรวมกิจการ

บริษัทยังใช้เครื่องมือ AI เพื่อรวบรวมข้อมูลฐานเครื่องจักรที่ติดตั้งแล้ว ระบุโอกาสด้านอะไหล่และบริการ ปรับปรุงกระบวนการเสนอราคาให้เป็นระบบอัตโนมัติ และปรับปรุงการวางแผนสินค้าคงคลังอะไหล่ให้มีประสิทธิภาพยิ่งขึ้น

แนวทางและคาดการณ์จากผู้บริหาร

ผู้บริหารคาดว่าค่าใช้จ่ายส่วนองค์กรในไตรมาสที่สี่จะอยู่ที่ประมาณ 30 ล้านดอลลาร์ การเติบโตของรายได้เมื่อเทียบกับไตรมาสก่อนหน้า (sequential) คาดว่าจะแข็งแกร่งกว่าในกลุ่ม Protein Solutions เมื่อเทียบกับ Prepared Food & Beverage Solutions เนื่องจากความอ่อนตัวของกลุ่ม CPG ที่ยังคงดำเนินต่อไป

บริษัทระบุว่าปัจจัยตามฤดูกาลปกติในไตรมาสที่สี่ยังคงมีผล แม้ว่าจะชัดเจนน้อยลงภายหลังการควบรวมกิจการกับ Marel นอกจากนี้ ยอดขายรอรับรู้รายได้ (backlog) ที่แข็งแกร่งของกลุ่มเนื้อสัตว์ปีกคาดว่าจะช่วยสนับสนุนการจัดส่งสินค้าในไตรมาสที่สี่ด้วย

ผู้บริหารยังคงเชื่อมั่นว่าจะบรรลุอัตรากำไร EBITDA ปรับปรุงแล้วที่ 20% ได้ในปี 2028 โดยได้รับแรงหนุนจากประโยชน์ของการควบรวมกิจการ การปรับปรุงอย่างต่อเนื่อง และการปรับปรุงพื้นที่ดำเนินงานให้เหมาะสม

ความเสี่ยงและประเด็นที่ต้องจับตา

• อุปสงค์ CPG อ่อนตัวลงอีกจากไตรมาสที่สองถึงไตรมาสที่สาม ผู้บริหารสมมติว่ากิจกรรมการดำเนินงานจะยังคงทรงตัวในระดับที่ต่ำลงของไตรมาสที่สามใน Q4 และระบุว่าความกดดันระยะสั้นอาจดำเนินต่อไปอย่างน้อยอีก 1 หรือ 2 ไตรมาส
• เงินเฟ้อ ภาษีศุลกากร และความพร้อมด้านโลจิสติกส์ที่ตึงตัวกำลังจำกัดความคืบหน้าของการประหยัดต้นทุนซัพพลายเชนร่วมกันบางส่วน และส่งผลให้ต้องปรับเปลี่ยนทรัพยากรไปใช้ในการหาแหล่งวัตถุดิบ/ผลิตภัณฑ์ใหม่และการบรรเทาผลกระทบจากภาษีศุลกากร
• แรงกดดันทางเศรษฐกิจและเหตุการณ์ทางภูมิรัฐศาสตร์ยังคงสร้างความไม่แน่นอนเกี่ยวกับกรอบเวลาการลงทุนของลูกค้า
• การตัดสินใจของ USDA ที่คาดว่าจะเกิดขึ้นเกี่ยวกับการเพิ่มความเร็วสายการแปรรูปเนื้อสัตว์ปีกในสหรัฐ อาจเป็นปัจจัยบวกต่อการลงทุนหลายปี อย่างไรก็ตาม ผู้บริหารระบุว่าคำตัดสินและอัตราความเร็วในการนำมาใช้นั้นยังคงมีความไม่แน่นอน
• การควบรวมพื้นที่ดำเนินงานในอนาคตจะเกี่ยวข้องกับโรงงานที่ลดจำนวนลงแต่มีขนาดใหญ่ขึ้น ซึ่งจะเพิ่มผลกระทบของการเปลี่ยนผ่านในแต่ละแห่ง แม้ว่าผู้บริหารจะคาดว่าการถ่ายทอดเทคโนโลยีจะซับซ้อนน้อยลงก็ตาม

ประเด็นสำคัญจากการตอบคำถามนักวิเคราะห์

การจัดสรรเงินทุน: ผู้บริหารระบุว่าวงเงินซื้อหุ้นคืนที่เพิ่มขึ้นเป็น 700 ล้านดอลลาร์จะถูกนำมาใช้ตามจังหวะโอกาสเมื่อมองว่าราคาหุ้นไม่สอดคล้องกับมูลค่าที่แท้จริง โดยบริษัทวางแผนที่จะรักษาสมดุลระหว่างการซื้อหุ้นคืนกับการลดหนี้สิน พร้อมทั้งรักษาอัตราส่วนหนี้สิน (leverage) ให้อยู่ที่ 2.0x-2.5x ส่วน M&A ยังคงเป็นตัวเลือกระยะยาว แต่ในปัจจุบันผู้บริหารมองว่าการซื้อหุ้นคืนเป็นการใช้เงินทุนที่ดีที่สุด

โอกาสในธุรกิจเนื้อสัตว์ปีกในสหรัฐ: ผู้บริหารประเมินว่าสหรัฐมีสายการแปรรูปเนื้อสัตว์ปีกขั้นแรกประมาณ 350 สาย โดยประมาณ 20% ดำเนินงานด้วยความเร็วสูงขึ้นภายใต้ข้อยกเว้นอยู่แล้ว ดังนั้นจึงมีประมาณ 250-275 สายที่สามารถเข้าข่ายการอัปเกรด โดยมีเงินลงทุนที่อาจเกิดขึ้น 3 ล้าน - 10 ล้านดอลลาร์ต่อสายในช่วงประมาณห้าปี อย่างไรก็ตาม บริษัทไม่ได้ให้คำคาดการณ์รายได้ที่ผูกกับโอกาสนี้

แนวโน้มกลุ่ม CPG: กลุ่ม Diversified Food & Health บันทึกยอดคำสั่งซื้อรายไตรมาสสูงสุดนับตั้งแต่การควบรวมกิจการระหว่าง JBT-Marel โดยได้รับแรงหนุนจากโครงการ CPG ขนาดใหญ่ขึ้นในปี 2027 อย่างไรก็ตาม ผู้บริหารยังไม่ได้มองว่าสิ่งนี้เป็นแนวโน้มที่ยั่งยืน และคาดว่าความอ่อนตัวในระยะสั้นจะยังคงดำเนินต่อไป

ความสามารถในการทำกำไรของธุรกิจเนื้อสัตว์และปลา: ผู้บริหารกล่าวว่าธุรกิจเนื้อสัตว์ปรับตัวดีขึ้นจากอัตรากำไร EBITDA ที่ใกล้ศูนย์หรือระดับหลักเดียวช่วงต่ำ (low-single-digit) ณ ตอนทำธุรกรรมกับ Marel มาเป็นระดับหลักเดียวช่วงสูง (high single digits) ส่วนธุรกิจปลาปรับตัวดีขึ้นจากอัตรากำไรที่ติดลบ 5%-10% มาอยู่ที่ประมาณ 5%-10% ทั้งนี้ บริษัทตั้งเป้าอัตรากำไรระดับสิบกว่าๆ ช่วงกลาง (mid-teen) สำหรับทั้งสองธุรกิจในอีก 2 ถึง 3 ปีข้างหน้า

การผนึกกำลังด้านรายได้ (Revenue synergies): ผู้บริหารระบุว่าคำสั่งซื้อที่เกิดจากการผนึกกำลังสะสมบรรลุประมาณ 75 ล้านดอลลาร์ในช่วง 12 เดือนก่อนหน้าจนถึงไตรมาสที่สอง โดยบริษัทบรรลุเป้าหมายเดิม 3 ปีได้ในเวลาประมาณ 18 เดือน โดยความสนใจในการขายเกื้อกูลกัน (cross-selling) มีความแข็งแกร่งที่สุดในกลุ่มอาหารสำเร็จรูป การแปรรูปเนื้อสัตว์ปีกขั้นสอง และโซลูชันท้ายไลน์ผลิต (end-of-line solutions)

บันทึกถอดความการแถลงผลประกอบการฉบับเต็ม

บทถอดเสียงฉบับเต็มของการประชุมทางโทรศัพท์ผลประกอบการ

คำชี้แจงจากฝ่ายบริหาร

Operator

Welcome to JBT Marel's Earnings Conference Call for the Third Quarter 2026. My name is Leslie, and I'll be your conference operator today. As a reminder, today's call is being recorded. [Operator Instructions] I will now turn the call over to JBT Marel's Senior Director of Investor Relations, Marlee Spangler to begin today's conference.

Marlee Spangler

Thank you, Leslie. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining JBT Marel's Third Quarter 2026 Conference Call. With me on the call are Brian Deck, our Chief Executive Officer; and Matt Meister, our Chief Financial Officer. In today's call, we will use forward-looking statements that are subject to the cautionary language in this morning's press release and 8-K filing. Actual results may differ materially from our projections. JBT Marel's periodic SEC in regarding risk factors that may have an impact on our results. These documents are available on our IR website. Also, our discussion today includes references to certain non-GAAP measures. A reconciliation of these measures to the most comparable GAAP measure can be found on our IR website. With that, I'll turn the call over to Brian.

Brian Deck

Thanks, Marlin, and good morning all. For the third quarter of 2026, we achieved record adjusted EBITDA of $179 million, and we reached an adjusted EBITDA margin of 18%, also a record, which exceeded our expectations even as we experienced lower-than-anticipated book and ship revenue associated with the CPG end market within our Prepared Food and Beverage segment. .

Our teams did an excellent job managing inflationary pressures and tariffs while continuing to improve our underlying cost structure. Moreover, we have made significant progress improving productivity as part of our footprint rationalization and transition to lower-cost operations. At the same time, we saw excellent sequential improvement in our warehouse automation business, which delivered meaningful cost improvements and revenue growth following its restructuring in the second quarter.

Our strong profitability also reflects the progress of the JBT Marel integration. These benefits, combined with our continuous improvement initiatives, support confidence in the path to delivering our adjusted EBITDA margin target of 20% in 2028. While economic pressures in geopolitical events have continued to give rise to an uncertain environment, we remain positive about the demand landscape, especially global protein, which continues to have a strong pipeline.

Specific to poultry, our customers have made clear their investment priorities are to lower their cost structure and meet growing demand for value-added prepared foods. I'll come back and talk further about the demand environment and progress on our strategic initiatives. In the meantime, let me turn the call over to Matt to discuss our third quarter results and update our full year guidance.

Matthew Meister

Thanks, Brian. Third quarter consolidated revenue of $994 million declined 1% compared to the prior year period. On a segment basis, Protein Solutions continued to deliver solid growth. with revenue increasing 6% year-over-year, driven primarily by poultry volume. Revenue in the Prepared Food & Beverage Solutions segment declined 6%. As Brian mentioned, the decline was due to lower book and ship revenue in our diversified Food and Health business, reflecting continued softness in the CPG related end markets. .

The other businesses within the segment, which are prepared foods and warehouse automation, both performed well in the quarter. Third quarter consolidated adjusted EBITDA of $179 million, increased 5% year-over-year. representing a margin of 18%, with both segments delivering year-over-year margin improvement. Protein Solutions margins improved 110 basis points, primarily from volume leverage, mix pricing and cost synergy realization. Prepared Food & Beverage Solutions improved 90 basis points year-over-year as improved performance in our Warehouse Automation business, expense savings realization, mix and price discipline more than offset margin impact of lower volume.

Year-over-year corporate expense was roughly flat at $27 million and slightly better than our forecast. driven by operating expense seasonality and lower incentive compensation expense. Sequentially, for the fourth quarter, we do expect corporate expense to be closer to $30 million. In terms of adjusted EPS, we delivered growth of 13% driven by our better margins and lower interest expense. Now moving to the balance sheet. We generated $252 million year-to-date free cash flow, representing an increase of approximately $90 million versus the prior year.

During the third quarter, we generated $73 million of free cash flow and repurchased 800,000 shares for $94 million, returning capital to shareholders while maintaining a leverage ratio below 2.5x. As we announced in this morning's press release, our Board of Directors authorized an increase to our existing share repurchase program. bringing the total authorization to $700 million. Increased authorization provides us with additional capacity to repurchase shares when we believe the stock price does not reflect the intrinsic value of JBT Marel consistent with our disciplined approach to capital allocation and shareholder returns. Finally, in terms of guidance, we are revising our full year revenue and adjusted EBITDA outlook. primarily reflecting the lower third quarter book and ship volume and our fourth quarter expectations, the D F&H business within our Prepared Foods and Beverage segment.

We now expect revenue of $3.95 billion to $4 billion. That translates to year-over-year growth of approximately 5% at the midpoint, including a 1.5% foreign exchange benefit. We increased our adjusted EBITDA margin guidance to 17.25% to 17.5% even as we revised our volume expectations, demonstrating our ability to operate efficiently and control expenses. We also increased adjusted EPS guidance to reflect our assumptions for lower interest expense, taxes and share count. Our adjusted EPS guidance range is now $8.10 to $8.40. With that, I'll turn the call back to Brian. .

Brian Deck

Thanks, Matt. Let me come back to the topic of orders and the business outlook. We experienced normal variability in seasonality in equipment orders in the third quarter. with a 3% year-over-year increase and a year-to-date increase of 10%. Given the strength of the protein end markets, including Prepared Foods, we remain positive about the demand outlook notwithstanding near-term book and ship volume from the CG end market. Interestingly, from an equipment orders perspective, our diversified Food & Health business had its best orders quarter since the combination of JBT and Marel on the strict of some larger 2027 CPG projects. .

Further, we have very strong momentum entering the fourth quarter for poultry globally across primary, secondary and further processing. Specific to the U.S. The primary and secondary poultry industry is under-invested relative to global standards, creating opportunities for producers to improve their cost structures through automation and modernization. With still healthy balance sheets and a supportive regulatory environment, we believe customers have both the means and incentive to invest.

We're deeply engaged with major poultry producers on plans that include meaningful investments in their operations. Moreover, the anticipated USDA ruling regarding higher line speeds which we continue to hope for the fourth quarter could provide an additional multiyear tailwind for U.S. investments.

More broadly, we are proud to serve as a thought partner to the USDA on several important matters. At the top of the call, I also mentioned the progress we are making with the JBT Marel footprint integration. We have made good progress in improving productivity in our facilities. During the third quarter, we completed the closure of 5 manufacturing distribution and service facilities, including 1 large facility and 4 modest facilities.

And we are now starting to enjoy the run rate benefits specific to those actions. We have much more to accomplish on our footprint optimization through the end of 2027 as we take deliberately phased approach to these initiatives. Overall, I am pleased with how the JBT Marel organization has come together and continues to unlock opportunities for value creation. Improvement in our profitability has been significant. As compared with the premerger baseline performance of our 2 companies in 2024, the midpoint of our 2026 margin guidance implies more than a 350 basis point expansion in adjusted EBITDA margin.

This improvement reflects our ability to realize cost effectiveness through continuation, labor efficiencies and more recently, initial benefits from our footprint consolidation. This is all part of our operational distinctiveness next-gen strategic pillar. At the same time, there's significant work underway across the organization that extends beyond the initiatives benefiting our near-term financial performance.

We are building capabilities that we believe will increase the resiliency of our business model and make JBT Marel an even better partner to our customers. Specifically, another pillar of our next-gen strategy is our integrated value proposition. This involves continuing to invest in our core food technologies and integrating them into full line systems for our customers. But to deliver a comprehensive, differentiated offering, we missed also embed our ongoing investments in software and digital tools, our food application expertise and our service and aftermarket support into these solutions. strengthening customer engagement and helping our customers succeed.

With that in mind, I'd like to provide some color on the work we are doing on our customer-first service organization. By elevating service excellence across JBT Marel, we can deepen customer relationships, grow our recurring parts business and create additional opportunities to support customers with incremental equipment and solutions. Strategy here is multifaceted, but here are 2 examples of key initiatives underway.

First, we are deploying a much better tracking and understanding of our installed base and its potential. We are piloting the use of AI tools that bring together multiple installed base data sources and harmonize them with our equipment maintenance cycles, giving us a clear share of wallet visibility that helps our teams identify and pursue opportunities more proactively. Second, we are looking to drive more productive spare parts fulfillment operations and improve lead times. We're streamlining our quotation processes by piloting an agentic workflow, automating code assistance and implementing a more intelligent inventory set of tools to align parts inventory with customer criticality and installed base demand patterns.

Together, these steps can deliver faster response times, better parts availability and more efficient use of working capital. These are just 2 work streams underway as part of our parts and service value proposition as we continue to elevate the JBT Marel brand. And you can expect more to come on this. As you can see, we have many value-creating initiatives underway. To our entire team, in driving this work, thank you for strengthening our ability to serve customers around the world. Now let's open the call to questions. Operator?

Operator

[Operator Instructions] We will take our first question from Jeffrey Hammond with KeyBanc Capital Markets.

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Unknown Analyst

This is Mitch more on for Jeff. Maybe if we could just start with the increased buyback authorization. I was just wondering how you're thinking about utilizing this, will be programmatic, opportunistic and just wondering your willingness to maybe add some leverage for buybacks.

Matthew Meister

Yes. I think primarily it will be opportunistic as we're really focused on sort of that disconnect between where we think the intrinsic value of the stock should be and where it's trading. But I think going forward, we'll maintain our leverage targets of between 2 and 2.5x and sort of balance share buybacks and debt pay down during that time. .

Unknown Analyst

Great. That's helpful. And then just as we think about the footprint optimization, I think 5 facilities closed and more to come. As you look forward, does the complexity or difficulty of those consolidations and footprint moves. Do they get easier kind of as we move into 4Q in 2027?

Brian Deck

The -- I would say over the last 6 months or so, there's been, I'll say, multiple closures, as we mentioned, 5 and another few underway as we speak. There'll be less shutdowns in terms of number of facilities, but larger facilities. So a little more impactful on each individual one, but -- we're phasing those in with 1 of the larger ones in the front half of the year and the second larger 1 in the back half of the year. So I would say, a little less activity, but a little more impactful per item.

Matthew Meister

Yes. And I would just add to that, the products that we are moving in these future facilities, we're moving to a facility that's already made either the same or very similar products. So the technological transfer isn't as complicated as some of the ones we've already done. .

Operator

We will take our next question from Mick Dobre with Baird.

Mircea Dobre

Yes. Maybe a quick clarification surrounding your guidance. If I'm doing the math right, it would imply a 7% increase in revenue sequentially in the fourth quarter relative to the third. So sort of curious as to how we should be thinking about that flowing through at segment level? Then I have a follow-up on that.

Matthew Meister

Yes. I think, Mig, what I would forecast in the protein segment sequentially and slightly lower -- bridge just because of the continued demand softness that we've seen in the CPG end market. So it's -- like I said, it's a little higher than the 7% in protein and probably a little lower on the far food beverage side.

Brian Deck

And then in terms of margins, you'll see more upward mobility on the PFB margins sequentially and flatter.

Mircea Dobre

Okay. That's helpful. Thinking back pre-Marel acquisition, there was a seasonal aspect to your business where the fourth quarter was usually just kind of like the seasonally strong quarter of the year. And I'm wondering if that dynamic continues to apply. And if this 7% bump in revenue that we're seeing is predominantly a seasonal factor? Or is there's something else that we need to be thinking about from a demand perspective here?

Brian Deck

Yes. I would say the seasonality impact does still exist relative to pre-Marel, maybe not quite as accentuated. However, clearly, it is part of our overall demand or, I say, ship and revenue recognition pattern. In part, it's because you often have some food facility shutdowns in the fourth quarter after they get through the shipping of the food for Thanksgiving holidays, so they can do some more maintenance and repair and installation of equipment.

That's also the higher season in Brazil on some orange juice lease activity. So we usually get a bump there as well. So overall, some -- seasonality exists. But additionally, we do have quite a strong backlog, particularly on the poultry side as we go into delivering in the fourth quarter.

Mircea Dobre

Okay. And then if I may, 1 last one. On prepared food and beverage. So last quarter -- you talked about $20 million of revenue that ended up getting pushed to the second half of this year. I'm looking to understand as to whether or not that's still the case. This time, we heard about some issues with CPG. I mean when I'm kind of looking at this segment, we've had negative organic growth throughout the last 3 quarters. And I'm trying to understand here how much of all of this is a function of demand as opposed to a function of -- I'm not going to call execution, but some of the things that you're doing to the business as your consolidating footprint. .

And as you look towards 2027, I recognize you're not providing guidance for that today. But is it reasonable for investors to expect the return to organic growth in this segment? What are the factors here we should all be thinking about?

Brian Deck

Sure. So just as a reminder, The Prepared Food and Beverage segment includes 3 businesses. It includes our diversified food and health business, which includes the CPG, typically on beverages, juices and ready meals. That's -- so it's a big part of their business along with pet food and some fruit and vegetables. So that's certainly the business that's been most affected, and they're down more -- they'll be down more than 10% this year or so.

So it's having a fairly outsized impact on the overall environment. Separately, we have our AGV business, and our Prepared Foods business. Both prepared foods business is in good shape. And given some of the trends on investment particularly on the poultry side, but outside of that as well in terms of frozen foods, et cetera. That business is in good shape, nice growth here in the quarter. that you really can't see because of DF NH. But that trend is as you recall, went through a really tough period going from '24 to '25 and then into the front half of '26.

And particularly with some of the impact that tariffs had on their customers, and we seem to be coming out of that. We had a really strong quarter with AGV again, somewhat buried within those PFB numbers, but they went from kind of a 0% EBITDA business to a very strong contributor in the third quarter, which helped quite a bit on the margins. but also, they're starting to build backlog again. So to get to your question, overall, do we -- can we return to mid-single-digit revenue growth, we believe so. We're working on our planning as we speak.

I do think you're going to, again, see higher growth areas, especially given our backlog on the protein on the prepared food side and ideally,AGV and I do expect lower growth or flattish on the DFNA side. But overall, the mix should be decent as we go into next year.

Operator

We will take our next question from Ross Sparenblek with William Blair.

Unknown Analyst

This is Sam Carlo on for Rob. I appreciate the comments on the USDA ruling. Could you maybe remind us what the competitive landscape looks like in regard to that potential upgrade cycle in the U.S.? And how much of this incremental demand you would expect JBTM to capture, assuming this ruling goes through?

Brian Deck

Sure. So competitive landscape on primary and second -- on primary poultry there's a handful of players really 3, you can argue potentially 4, but really 3 larger players in JBT has the largest market share in North America of that group, very, very solid market share. On the secondary side, there is more competition.

But again, JBT is we believe, the leader in that space as well. And so the areas that you would see the investment would be the secondary and the primary side. So basically, as line speeds increase, you need to improve the overall operation because you'll be creating bottlenecks in various spots across that primary and secondary line.

So that's where the opportunity lies. In terms of sizing the market, there's -- that's a little hard to determine. But what I would tell you is there's approximately 350 primary poultry lines in the U.S. and about 20% of them are already running with waivers at the higher line speed. So if you're talking 250, 275 lines that are, I'll say, upgradable if you will. And anywhere from, call it, $3 million to $10 million investments for those lines over the course of, say, the next 5 years or so, add that up.

That's a pretty big number. And then you apply our market share to that. So you do a little math on that, but you could see that's quite a large number. again, a little bit -- the question as to the pace of that adoption. It will take some time because, however, we do feel that over time, this will be a nice opportunity for the U.S. poultry industry to close the gap at least partially with what we see in Europe, which are running at much larger, faster line speeds.

Unknown Analyst

Got it. That's all super helpful. I guess switching gears just a second. You called out work orders as strong in the quarter. Could you maybe remind us where pork margins are now versus what they were when you acquired Marel. And then where you see those margins potentially going as those orders and revenue recovers? And then maybe the same question for the fish business.

Brian Deck

Right. So when we acquired the business or merged with the business, the meat business was kind of running in that very low single digits kind of close to 0. It's running in high single digits as we speak. And then the Fish business was running kind of in that negative 5% to 10% EBITDA margins, and now they're running again, similar to meat in that 5% to 10% type range, kind of depends on the quarter and the projects at hand. We don't see that getting to the mid-20s type range that you see in some of our other businesses.

But we certainly are striving to get into those mid-teen levels over the next 2 to 3 years. So some fair amount of upward mobility. Part of it does require some continued strength in those underlying markets, which we feel good about. Just given the protein consumption across the globe, but that's kind of the overall landscape.

Operator

We will take our next question from Ian Zaffino with Oppenheimer.

Unknown Analyst

Just wondering if you could give us a little bit maybe more color on the CPG and the prepared business because it did seem like last quarter, a lot of this was kind of internal stuff that you guys were dealing with and now seems to be on the customer end. So where have trends been going, I guess, when do you first maybe recognize some of the weakness there? And did it accelerate throughout the quarter? And I guess, exiting the quarter, is it getting worse? Or was it stabilizing? Or what is that you kind of seeing there?

Brian Deck

Sure. Yes. So we've been signaling the CPG weakness throughout the year within that PFB segment and as I mentioned, it's down kind of 10% year-over-year. So we've been talking about it. However, it did weaken during the course of the quarter. And just to give you some -- little bit of color on the CPG business specifically. So I'm sure you've heard in the news the CPG companies, given the consumer inflation environment, it's really hampered some of their businesses, and they've tried price decreases, they tried price increases. .

But at the end of the day, what they're finding is that they ultimately need to invest in some of their brands, new products, et cetera, and really create an interesting value proposition that will drive customer reengagement, if you will. So -- but what we're seeing here in the shorter term is that they're managing their expenses, they're managing their short term cash et cetera. And so that's hurting some of the, I'll say, short-term cycle and it certainly got worse and -- worse than expected going from the second to third quarter.

We had assumed it would be at a relatively low level, but flat Q2 to Q3, and that did not hold and we're assuming it's basically going to be flat at this lower level going from Q3 to Q4. But as I said in the prepared remarks, what was very interesting was that segment had really strong orders in the third quarter for some longer-term projects. So kind of what we're seeing, as I just mentioned, is as they start to invest in some brands and products, they've been doing some testing on some end markets and some new product introductions.

As those start to take hold, they're starting to make these longer-term investments -- it's not a trend yet, obviously, and I do think that short-term pressure will persist for at least the next quarter or 2. But after that, we are hopeful that some of these longer-term thinking and investments to strengthen their brand will take hold.

Unknown Analyst

Okay. And then maybe as a follow-up, can you give us an idea of the M&A environment you're seeing right now? And I know you're kind of out there buying back a lot of stock and some a little bit about leverage. But what are you seeing there? Are you seeing any motivated sellers, do you think you're well positioned, especially maybe with the USDA doing what they're doing, where you might need to add anything? Or are we just going to per well we have and just buy back stock?

Brian Deck

Sure. So certainly, over time, M&A will become an important part of our strategy and there will be certainly opportunities to fill in some of the white spaces that we have, especially within our Prepared Food and Beverage segment, but also on the packaging side and other places where we have some holes. However, that said, I would say, given the current environment, we think that the best use of capital at least for the foreseeable future is on stock buybacks.

We think that's the best use of capital for our shareholders, and so that's where we concentrate in and at the same time, continue to execute on our integration. We have lots of value creation levers there. So we're going to be really executing as hard as we can and returning capital to shareholders where we think the best return on that investment sits.

Operator

We will take our next question from Justin Ages with CJS Securities.

Justin Ages

You mentioned you're making good progress on achieving the cost synergies that you laid out. In the presentation, you mentioned you're augmenting the synergies with the accelerated footprint reduction given that supply chain efforts are being impacted by inflation. Just wanted to get an update on where we are on the supply chain efforts versus expectations.

Matthew Meister

Yes. I think the team has been really working hard to try to continue to execute on their pipeline of activities and projects in support of consolidating suppliers both on direct and indirect spend. And they've done a good job doing that, but they're also at times getting pulled into other activities associated with trying to offset some of the tariff impact and trying to resource products to other parts or other vendors to try to reduce the impact of tariffs. .

So there's a little bit of distraction associated with some of the tariff impacts. And then also, they've been working hard on some of the challenges we've seen with logistics, not only the tightening of logistics availability, but also just the higher inflation we saw in logistics. So those -- so the inflation that we're seeing, plus some of the focus being shifted towards resourcing for tariff litigation. That's sort of slowed down some of the progress we've made on the supply chain side and somewhat diluted some of the impact of the benefits that we saw from the pipeline of projects within the supply chain organization.

So we've always had sort of this larger portfolio of projects to be able to achieve the synergies because we knew that some things would be easier than others. And that's why we're seeing maybe an acceleration to some extent, of some of the footprint consolidation to try to offset the impact we've seen on the supply chain side.

Brian Deck

And I would just add, over the longer term, that same pipeline of opportunities for the supply chain continue to exist. However, I think some of that will press beyond that initial 3-year opportunity, especially as you think about reshoring or onshoring production from Europe to the U.S. to avoid some of the tariffs. and some of the value-add value engineering work that goes along with that. So the pipeline is pretty tremendous.

However, with -- again, as Matt said, with tariffs and logistics and whatnot, resources are finite, and they move around where we need them most.

Justin Ages

That's helpful. And then switching gears a little bit, talking about revenue synergies. Can you just give us an update on where we are in achieving some of those that I know they're not as pertinent to the story, but you mentioned that there could be some cross-selling opportunity and the like.

Brian Deck

Sure. So I think as we mentioned at the -- through the second quarter, we were something in the range of $75 million cumulative over the prior 12 months. There wasn't a huge synergy orders specific to the third quarter. So it's only modestly moved up from there. We do have a nice again, pipeline of opportunities. But we had originally suggested we can get $75 million in synergy orders in 3 years. We did that in 1.5 years.

And I will say, generally speaking, the value proposition that we're putting forth on some of these things, particularly in the prepared food side, particularly on the secondary side of poultry as well as end of line with APAC label have really garnered a lot of interest and a lot of activity more so than we would have originally thought. So I would say the thesis is actually a little stronger than we would have thought coming out of the gate in that first 18 months, and we do think that will continue here for some time.

Operator

At this time, there are no further questions in the queue. I will now turn the meeting back to Mr. Brian Deck.

Brian Deck

Thank you all for joining us this morning. As always, our Investor Relations team is available for any follow-up questions. .

Operator

Thank you. This brings us to the end of today's meeting. We appreciate your time and participation. You may now disconnect.