Teleconferência de resultados do 3T de 2026 da Goldman Sachs BDC: alavancagem cai, inadimplência sobe

Principais destaques

• A Goldman Sachs BDC gerou uma receita líquida de investimentos de US$ 35,3 milhões no 3T26, ou US$ 0,32 por ação, igualando seu dividendo base e representando um rendimento anualizado sobre o valor patrimonial de aproximadamente 10,9%.
• O valor patrimonial líquido (NAV) recuou para US$ 11,70 por ação, ante US$ 12,06 no 2T26, principalmente devido a US$ 0,36 por ação em perdas líquidas realizadas e não realizadas concentradas em um pequeno número de investimentos de safras mais antigas.
• A dívida líquida sobre o patrimônio líquido recuou de 1,35x para 1,21x, impulsionada por amortizações e vendas de ativos que favoreceram a redução do endividamento. A GSBD também recomprou cerca de 1,5 milhão de ações por US$ 15 milhões.
• Os novos compromissos de investimento totalizaram cerca de US$ 41 milhões distribuídos em 14 empresas do portfólio, incluindo sete novos tomadores. Todos os novos investimentos na carteira foram em dívida sênior first-lien, com spread médio ponderado de aproximadamente 550 pontos-base sobre a SOFR.
• O risco de crédito aumentou: os investimentos em nonaccrual subiram para 4,2% da carteira a valor justo, ante 2,9%, enquanto o número de empresas da carteira afetadas aumentou de 10 para 11.
• O conselho de administração declarou um dividendo base de US$ 0,32 por ação para o 4T26. A GSBD encerrou o trimestre com US$ 96,7 milhões, ou US$ 0,87 por ação, em lucro tributável não distribuído.

Principais dados financeiros

Desempenho operacional e dos negócios

A carteira da GSBD permaneceu concentrada no topo da estrutura de capital, com 98,6% dos investimentos a valor justo alocados em dívida sênior garantida. Cerca de 89,5% do portfólio recebeu classificação 2 na escala interna de quatro pontos da companhia, indicando desempenho amplamente em linha com as expectativas. Outros 6,2% foram classificados como 3 e 4,3% receberam nota 4.

As empresas do portfólio registraram EBITDA médio ponderado de aproximadamente US$ 117,4 milhões, relação dívida líquida/EBITDA média ponderada de 6,3x e cobertura de juros de 1,9x, ante 2,0x no 2T26. A administração atribuiu o recuo na cobertura à rotação da carteira, e não a um estresse operacional generalizado. As companhias que permaneceram no portfólio em ambos os trimestres registraram maior cobertura média ponderada de juros.

A companhia continuou reduzindo sua exposição a empréstimos atrelados à receita recorrente anual (ARR). Os empréstimos ARR representavam cerca de 7% do portfólio a valor justo, uma queda frente a quase 39% no 3T22. Durante o trimestre, um empréstimo ARR de quase US$ 50 milhões foi integralmente quitado ao par.

Os novos compromissos somaram aproximadamente US$ 41 milhões entre 14 empresas. Sete eram novos tomadores da GSBD, e todos os novos investimentos da carteira foram em dívida sênior first-lien. O spread médio ponderado de cerca de 550 pontos-base sobre a SOFR foi ligeiramente superior ao dos empréstimos quitados durante o trimestre.

Aproximadamente 98% dos investimentos em dívida adimplentes possuem taxas pós-fixadas. A administração afirmou que taxas básicas mais altas devem sustentar as receitas de investimentos, embora também possam elevar os custos de captação das empresas da carteira.

Perspectivas da administração

A administração espera que a alocação de capital se concentre principalmente na reciclagem dos recursos provenientes de amortizações contínuas, em vez de elevar substancialmente a alavancagem. A companhia classificou sua atual relação dívida líquida sobre patrimônio líquido de 1,21x como confortável e afirmou que continuará seletiva, já que o ambiente concorrencial mantém as condições de mercado apertadas.

A GSBD projeta que sua taxa de incentivo permaneça contida no 4T26 em função do cálculo de desempenho dos últimos 12 trimestres. O conselho continuará avaliando o dividendo a cada trimestre com base na capacidade de geração de receitas da carteira, nas taxas de juros e na posição financeira geral da companhia.

A administração informou que a atividade de negócios e o pipeline de transações começaram a apresentar melhora nos últimos meses, mas ressaltou que o cronograma de execução continua dependente do cenário macroeconômico. A empresa espera maior atividade de transações de private equity ao longo do tempo, à medida que os sponsors busquem devolver capital, sem fornecer uma projeção específica.

Riscos e pontos de atenção

• Os investimentos em nonaccrual aumentaram para 4,2% do valor justo e 7,3% do custo amortizado. A administração destacou que a resolução de posições ilíquidas de crédito privado pode demandar um tempo considerável.
• A pressão sobre o NAV permaneceu concentrada em um pequeno número de posições de safras mais antigas. Pouco menos de 50% da carteira consiste em safras anteriores a 2022, embora mais de 64% das amortizações ao longo de 2026 tenham sido provenientes de safras mais antigas.
• A receita líquida de investimentos do 3T26 cobriu apenas o dividendo base, sem apuração de taxa de incentivo. A administração citou US$ 0,87 por ação em lucro tributável não distribuído como um potencial amortecedor para eventuais déficits futuros.
• O volume de fusões e aquisições (M&A) liderado por sponsors nas Américas recuou cerca de 13% em base anual até o 3T, limitando o universo geral de novas transações.
• A oferta de capital continua superando os ativos disponíveis em segmentos do mercado de crédito privado, gerando pressão sobre spreads e condições de crédito.

Destaques da sessão de perguntas e respostas com analistas

Alavancagem e alocação: A administração afirmou que a GSBD está confortável com sua alavancagem atual e que irá focar principalmente na reciclagem dos recursos de amortizações em novos investimentos. A alocação dependerá de encontrar oportunidades com retornos atraentes ajustados ao risco.

Resolução de ativos em nonaccrual: A companhia está trabalhando com os sponsors, grupos de credores e sua equipe dedicada de reestruturação em cada posição problemática. A administração alertou que as resoluções levam tempo porque os investimentos subjacentes são privados e ilíquidos.

Cobertura de dividendos: O dividendo base para o 4T permanece em US$ 0,32 por ação. A administração espera que a taxa de incentivo permaneça contida no 4T e destacou os US$ 96,7 milhões em lucro tributável não distribuído, reiterando que as futuras decisões sobre dividendos dependerão da capacidade de geração de resultados da carteira e da posição financeira da empresa.

Perspectivas para originação: A administração reportou um backlog mais saudável nos últimos meses, mas afirmou que as incertezas quanto ao cronograma das transações persistem. A empresa espera que a necessidade das gestoras de private equity de devolver capital sustente a atividade de transações ao longo do tempo.

Transcrição completa da teleconferência de resultados

Transcrição completa da teleconferência de resultados

Comentários da administração

Haley Neveen

Good morning, and thank you for joining us. My name is Haley Neveen, Head of the Investor Relations team for Goldman Sachs BDC, Inc., and I would like to welcome everyone to the Goldman Sachs BDC, Inc. Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions].

Before we begin today's call, I would like to remind our listeners that today's remarks may include forward-looking statements. These statements represent the company's beliefs regarding future events that, by their nature, are uncertain and outside of the company's control. The company's actual results and financial condition may differ possibly materially from what is indicated in those forward-looking statements as a result of a number of factors, including those described from time to time in the company's SEC filings. This audiocast is copyrighted material of Goldman Sachs BDC, Inc. and may not be duplicated, reproduced or rebroadcast without our consent.

Yesterday, after the market closed, the company issued an earnings press release and posted a supplemental earnings presentation, both of which can be found on the homepage of our website at www.goldmansachsbdc.com under the Investor Resources section and which include reconciliations of non-GAAP measures to the most directly comparable GAAP measures. These documents should be reviewed in conjunction with the company's quarterly report on Form 10-Q filed yesterday with the SEC. This conference call is being recorded today, Friday, November 6, 2026, for replay purposes.

Now I'll turn the call over to Vivek Bantwal, Co-Chief Executive Officer of Goldman Sachs BDC, Inc.

Vivek Bantwal

Thank you, Haley. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us for our third quarter earnings conference call. I'm here today with David Miller, my Co-Chief Executive Officer; Tucker Greene and Justin Betzen, our Co-Presidents and Co-Chief Operating Officers; and Stan Matuszewski, our Chief Financial Officer. This morning, you will hear from Justin for the first time. We're excited to have him here with us today and to join future earnings calls.

I'll begin with the quarter's highlights and our results. Justin will then walk through the market and our deployment activity. Tucker will cover the portfolio and credit quality, and Stan will take us through the quarter's financial results. To close, David will share some thoughts before we open the line for questions.

Last quarter, we laid out a clear set of priorities, and I'd like to start by updating you on our progress. First, we told you reducing leverage was a focus, and we followed through. Net debt to equity declined to 1.21x as of September 30, 2026, from 1.35x at the end of the second quarter. Second, while keeping a conservative approach to leverage, we continue to invest selectively in what remained an attractive environment for new loans. Originations outpaced last quarter's levels as we were able to invest in 7 new portfolio companies at a weighted average spread of approximately 550 basis points over SOFR. And third, to enhance shareholder value, we began executing on the share repurchase plan, buying back approximately $15 million of stock during the third quarter. In summary, each of these actions reflect the same priority, strengthening our balance sheet while staying disciplined in how we put capital to work.

Now let me turn to the results. For the third quarter, GSBD generated net investment income of $0.32 per share, in line with our base dividend, representing an annualized yield on book value of approximately 10.9%. Quarter-over-quarter, the results reflected a smaller portfolio size following our deleveraging and lower income resulting from investments placed on nonaccrual during the quarter. Those factors were partially offset by lower interest expense and management fees. Given these results, the Board has declared a fourth quarter 2026 base dividend of $0.32 per share payable to shareholders of record as of December 31, 2026. As a reminder, our Board continues to evaluate the dividend each quarter based on the earnings power of the portfolio, the rate environment and our overall financial position.

Net asset value ended the quarter at $11.70 per share compared with $12.06 at the end of the second quarter, driven primarily by realized and unrealized losses concentrated in a small number of older vintage positions. The credits that impacted this quarter's results reflect company-specific challenges rather than the broad macro environment. During the quarter, strong repayment and sales activity gave us capital to fund new investments, pay down debt and repurchase shares. Together, these actions optimize our balance sheet and position us to respond to attractive investment opportunities as they arise.

Turning to the broader environment. The macro backdrop continued to evolve this quarter. Inflation remained above the Federal Reserve's target range. The Fed raised rates in September for the first time since 2023, and geopolitical developments affected transaction timelines across the market. In our portfolio, roughly 98% of our performing debt is floating rate, so GSBD's investment income will benefit from higher base rates going forward. While higher rates could also raise borrowing costs for our portfolio companies, our current portfolio has been operating in a high base rate environment for several years now.

Many of these capital structures were put in place after base rates increased. So this rate environment was factored in from the outset. Although the interest coverage ratio marginally declined from 2.0x to 1.9x quarter-over-quarter, this was driven by a rotation of certain companies out of the portfolio and not underlying portfolio company stress. Excluding exited deals, companies that remained in the portfolio quarter-over-quarter saw an increase in the weighted average interest coverage.

Justin, the market shifted quite a bit over the course of the quarter. Can you talk about what we're seeing and how it shaped our deployment?

Justin Betzen

Happy to share my view, Vivek, and I'm very excited to be with you all here today. During the third quarter, new deal activity remained light with slower M&A as the market worked through the backdrop Vivek described. Even so, we were able to find attractive places to deploy with new commitments for the fund spanning both new borrowers and existing portfolio companies. Overall transaction volumes remain muted with sponsor M&A volume in the Americas down approximately 13% year-over-year through the third quarter.

For GSBD, a softer market rewards selectivity over volume. Transactions are still getting done and the breadth of our platform gives us access to differentiated opportunities. More broadly, the market followed more normalized dynamics this quarter compared with the dislocation we experienced in the first half. Much of the spread volatility we saw earlier in the year, including the software sell-off, proved largely technical rather than fundamental. As those concerns eased, conditions settled into a more balanced environment for both investors and borrowers.

However, software remains the exception where conditions are still more favorable to lenders. The software businesses coming to market are primarily high quality, and those deals are being done at wider spreads and with tighter terms than they would have commanded in prior vintages. What's driving the current pricing is the balance of supply and demand with more capital competing for a limited pool of transactions. Adding to that, the syndicated market was an attractive refinancing channel for direct lending borrowers this quarter with a record of approximately $11.8 billion of direct lending deals refinanced. This broadly syndicated activity is healthy for the market overall, and we compete well when sponsors are seeking certainty of execution, the ability to underwrite a full capital structure and a lender with deep industry expertise.

A good example this quarter was a sponsor-backed acquisition of an industrial services business, where our platform served as administrative agent and the largest lender in the financing. The opportunity came through collaboration with the broader GS ecosystem and our ability to make a large early commitment gave the sponsor certainty of execution, which positioned us to lead the transaction. The company provides nondiscretionary services that help protect and extend the life of critical industrial assets.

During the quarter, we made new investment commitments of approximately $41 million across 14 portfolio companies, 7 of which were new borrowers to GSBD. All new portfolio companies were first lien at a weighted average spread of approximately 550 basis points over SOFR, slightly wider than the loans that were repaid during the quarter. So even in a more competitive market, we continue to put capital to work at spreads at or above the deals we exited. There's been significant focus in the market on potential disruption from AI, but that's not what we're seeing across our portfolio. Across the private credit platform, broader AI spending is benefiting companies in multiple industries, including industrials, environmental services and businesses adjacent to direct AI investment, such as grid hardening.

Vivek, back to you.

Vivek Bantwal

Thanks, Justin. And one point here I want to emphasize. Amid the attention on private credit this year, our focus at GSBD remains on disciplined underwriting and ongoing portfolio management to support shareholder outcomes. Looking ahead, with the capacity we've created on the balance sheet, we're well positioned to be selective, finding the deals that strike the right balance between pricing and risk.

Tucker, could you walk us through how that discipline is reflected in the portfolio?

Tucker Greene

Thanks, Vivek. I'd like to start with one of the repayments Justin mentioned because it says a lot about how we've been managing the portfolio. This quarter, a recurring revenue loan of nearly $50 million was repaid in full at par, demonstrating our deliberate work to reduce ARR exposure over the past several years. The percentage of ARR loans is down from nearly 39% of the portfolio at fair value in the third quarter of 2022 to approximately 7% today, largely through repayments at par or conversions to traditional cash flow structures. As this quarter demonstrates, software refinancings are still getting done, and we remain focused on reducing that number further.

The portfolio remains positioned at the top of the capital structure with 98.6% in senior secured debt at fair value. Total investments were $2.9 billion at fair value spread across 168 portfolio companies in 41 industries. Yields were relatively steady. The weighted average yield on our debt and income-producing investments was 11.9% at fair value and 9.7% at amortized cost, up from 9.5% at amortized cost last quarter. The portfolio's weighted average EBITDA is approximately $117.4 million with weighted average net debt to EBITDA of 6.3x and interest coverage of 1.9x. And on that same basis, our companies have continued to grow both revenue and EBITDA.

On credit quality, the vast majority of the portfolio continues to perform as expected. 89.5% of the portfolio at fair value remains rated 2 on our internal 1 to 4 scale, meaning the borrower is generally performing as expected. Another 6.2% of the portfolio is rated 3, meaning risk has increased materially since origination. The remaining 4.3% is rated 4. Many of these are long-time watch list names we know well and have been monitoring closely.

Investments on nonaccrual status increased to approximately 4.2% of the portfolio at fair value from 2.9% last quarter and to 7.3% at amortized cost from 5% over the same period. During the quarter, investments in 2 portfolio companies as well as additional tranches in 2 existing nonaccrual names were placed on nonaccrual status, partially offset by investment that was restored to accrual status following improved performance. The number of portfolio companies with investments on nonaccrual status increased from 10 to 11. We're actively engaged on every one of these positions, and our focus is on maximizing recoveries for shareholders. Our experience with our dedicated restructuring team working through prior situations gives us confidence in that process.

Stan, can you take us through our financial results?

Stanley Matuszewski

Thank you, Tucker. I'll begin with an overview of leverage. As Vivek mentioned, our net debt-to-equity ratio was 1.21x as of September 30 compared to 1.35x at the end of the second quarter due to elevated sales and repayment activity. During the quarter, we repurchased about 1.5 million shares for approximately $15 million, which was accretive to net asset value per share. As a reminder, the Board has authorized a $75 million share repurchase program.

On earnings, third quarter GAAP after-tax net investment income was $35.3 million compared to $42.2 million in the second quarter. Total investment income was $75 million compared with $83.7 million last quarter. The decline reflected a smaller portfolio and the impact of investments placed on nonaccrual. Separately, interest and other debt expense declined to $29.1 million from $30.1 million and management fees declined to $7.7 million from $8.2 million. These partially offset the reduction in investment income.

Turning to the incentive fee, which Vivek mentioned earlier. It is meant to reflect performance over a longer period rather than any single quarter. Given the trailing 12-quarter results, no incentive fee was earned this quarter. As Vivek noted, net asset value per share declined $0.36 during the quarter, that was primarily driven by $0.36 per share of net realized and unrealized losses and the $0.03 per share second quarter supplemental distribution, partially offset by $0.03 of NAV accretion from share repurchases.

Net investment income was in line with our base dividend. We had approximately $96.7 million or $0.87 per share of undistributed taxable income at quarter end. Finally, we believe our liability structure remains a durable competitive advantage. At quarter end, we had just over $1 billion of remaining revolver capacity against approximately $1.7 billion of total outstanding debt principal with roughly 72% of that in unsecured debt.

With that, I'll turn it back to Vivek.

Vivek Bantwal

Thank you, Stan. To sum up, with leverage meaningfully lower, ample liquidity and a well-structured liability profile, we have real flexibility and in the current market, that flexibility is valuable. Our priorities are clear: work through the investments on nonaccrual to maximize recoveries, maintain a conservative balance sheet, deploy capital when risk-adjusted returns are compelling and continue to evaluate share repurchases against new investments.

Before we open the line for questions, I'd like to turn it over to David for some closing thoughts.

David Miller

Thank you, Vivek. I shared most of my reflections back in August, so I'll keep this brief. Our private credit platform is in very good hands. The bench here is as deep as any in the industry, and I've been fortunate to work alongside many of these colleagues for many years. To our Board, to our shareholders and most of all, to my colleagues. Thank you. I'll remain on the investment committee, so I'm not going far, and I look forward to watching this team's continued success.

Vivek, back to you.

Vivek Bantwal

Thank you, David. On behalf of everyone at this table and everyone who has worked alongside you, and thank you all for joining us this morning. With that, let's open the line for questions.

Operator

[Operator Instructions] We'll take our first question from Arren Cyganovich with Truist.

Perguntas e respostas

Arren Cyganovich

Maybe just talk to start about -- you deleveraged. You're talking about having additional room to, I guess, be a little bit more active on the origination side now that you have some capacity. You're at a kind of normal kind of leverage level now. It would just -- I'm assuming this would still just be kind of more like rotation for new investments versus actually expanding leverage from here. Is that correct?

Tucker Greene

Arren, it's Tucker. Yes, that's right. We're at a comfortable leverage level right now. We have continued repayments this quarter. So we're primarily looking at recycling into -- as long as the spread environment remains robust as we saw in the last quarter, spreads have tightened a bit, but we're looking at some pretty interesting opportunities to invest in. But we'll primarily do recycling as we look at repayments continue to come through.

Arren Cyganovich

Okay. And on the nonaccrual side, you're up to a fairly high level comparative to peers right now. I know you're working through some kind of legacy originations. Where would you say you are in that process of, I guess, rotating out of older positions that maybe you wouldn't have put on versus the rest of the portfolio?

Justin Betzen

Arren, it's Justin Betzen. On our nonaccruals, we added 2 names to nonaccrual this quarter. Then we added some additional tranches of existing names to nonaccrual, and we're actively focused on all of these names. And as you can imagine, given the nature of the illiquid private nature of the company, it takes a long time to work through.

We've got dedicated resources in-house to help us do that. We're actively engaged with sponsors and the lender group and actively working on all these situations. It just takes time to work through some of these, but we continue to be very focused on it. I think in terms of the legacy portfolio that you mentioned and kind of where are we on that? I think it's just under 50% of the total portfolio remains kind of the pre-2022 vintages. I also note that over 64% of our repayment activity this year has been from the older vintage.

Arren Cyganovich

Okay. And then just lastly, your earnings met the dividend this quarter, but there wasn't any incentive fee expense during this quarter, which is by design, and it's a good shareholder-friendly fee. I guess my question is that once that starts to kick back in, assuming you have a good performance ahead, it will be difficult to cover the dividend from this current level. What are your thoughts on dividend coverage into next year?

Stanley Matuszewski

Yes. So Arren, it's Sam Matuszewski. Just on the incentive fee, I agree with everything you said. And then looking at the 12-quarter look back, we do anticipate that, that incentive fee is going to be quite muted in the fourth quarter as well, as you may already know.

In terms of the dividend, so our Board of Directors already authorized a $0.32 per share dividend for December 31. And we are constantly assessing the earnings power of the platform as we think about coverage of that dividend going forward. As a reminder, we do have $97 million or $0.87 per share of spillover income. So we do think that, that provides a bridge for any shortfall. But as we think about it, we certainly intend to transparently communicate any changes in our dividend policy when appropriate.

Operator

We'll take our next question from Heli Sheth with Raymond James.

Heli Sheth

So on activity, what should we expect in terms of pacing for both repayments and originations for both the remainder of the year and into 2027? Obviously, 2026 was a pretty stagnant M&A environment. So are there -- what are the near-term catalysts that could drive more activity?

Vivek Bantwal

Yes. Listen, it's a good question. Look, obviously, we've had a few kind of different periods in terms of the macro as sort of the year has evolved, and it's, in fact, obviously still evolving with the elections this week and kind of the resulting impact on what we've seen in public equity markets. And so all of those things are going to sort of play through at a macro level. I'd say that from a deal perspective, in the last couple of months, actually, there has been kind of a healthy level of activity kind of starting to pick up from a backlog perspective.

As you know, there is a lag time between when these deals sort of come in the door versus when auctions conclude, purchase agreements get signed and the deals actually execute. And of course, the macro is going to have an impact on that. When you look year-over-year, sponsor M&A volume is lower. I think there is a sense that, that will turn around at some point because when you look at the age of historical vintages and you look at historical measures of DPI in the private equity community, they have lagged where they have been historically. And so there's a sense that as private equity firms kind of start to focus on returning capital to shareholders that they'll need to transact by selling things, which will then create the opportunity for other sponsors to sort of buy things.

That didn't happen this year because of that macro, but there's a sense that, that will happen. So it's a little bit hard to predict in any given month, what kind of that environment looks like. But the direction of travel, I think, is certainly as we look forward here, that we'll see more deals over time. In the meantime, I will say that we're very fortunate that given our origination funnel, the deals that we are seeing are actually very attractive and we really like them. So again, if we had a choice of there being more deals versus fewer, we'd be happy to see more good deals, but the deals that we are seeing are good deals, and we're happy to put capital to work in those.

Heli Sheth

Got it. And then a quick follow-up. I believe you mentioned on the repayments you're getting, you're redeploying at higher yields. Can you talk a little bit more about what trends you're seeing going forward in terms of the yields on repayments versus redeployments? Like do you continue to expect to redeploy at higher spreads? Or is that just kind of more in the near term?

Tucker Greene

It's largely dependent upon the capital markets and the competitive nature and how many deals are coming to market. I think in the last quarter, as we mentioned, we were able to deploy at very attractive yields relative to what was running off. The overall market remains relatively competitive from a capital standpoint. And so market terms continue to be pretty tight. I think the good thing, and as Vivek mentioned, our origination platform is unique. We do see some opportunities unique to our platform where we are able to get more attractive terms. But there still is a supply-demand imbalance in terms of capital and assets.

Operator

At this time, there are no further questions in queue. I will now turn it back to Vivek for any additional or closing remarks.

Vivek Bantwal

Thanks, everyone, for joining us. We look forward to following up. Have a good day.