Teleconferência de Resultados do 3T 2026 da Plains All American (PAGP): EBITDA Ajustado de US$ 711M

Principais destaques

• A Plains All American reportou EBITDA ajustado no 3T26 de US$ 711 milhões, impulsionado por eficiências operacionais, reajustes tarifários anuais da FERC e menores despesas com remediação ambiental em relação ao 2T.
• A administração estreitou a projeção de EBITDA ajustado para o ano todo para US$ 2,88 bilhões, mais ou menos US$ 50 milhões, e espera resultados no ponto médio ou ligeiramente acima dele sob as condições atuais de mercado.
• A empresa capturou US$ 50 milhões em sinergias com a aquisição do Cactus III e continua no caminho para entregar outros US$ 50 milhões em eficiências em toda a organização até o final de 2026.
• Um novo contrato de 10 anos adiciona 270.000 acres dedicados ao sistema de coleta de Permian Midland, elevando a área dedicada total no Permiano para mais de 5,3 milhões de acres. A administração espera que a contribuição tenha início no final de 2027 ou início de 2028.
• O recém-renomeado sistema Silver Spur transporta aproximadamente 125.000 barris por dia e abrange 915.000 acres dedicados. A administração espera que 2027 seja um ano de transição e investimentos, com crescimento mais forte a partir de 2028.
• Uma oferta de US$ 1,5 bilhão em notas subordinadas júnior e o resgate de cotas preferenciais devem aumentar o fluxo de caixa distribuível anual aos cotistas ordinários em cerca de US$ 60 milhões, ou US$ 0,09 por cota.

Principais dados financeiros

Desempenho operacional e dos negócios

A Plains All American concluiu a venda de suas operações canadenses de LGN em maio. Portanto, o relatório do 3T exclui o segmento de LGN e apresenta a empresa como um único segmento consolidado focado em petróleo bruto. A administração afirmou que a mudança deve melhorar a durabilidade do fluxo de caixa e as oportunidades de crescimento.

Na bacia de Permian Midland, a empresa assinou um contrato de coleta de 10 anos com uma grande produtora integrada, cobrindo 270.000 acres dedicados. O contrato envolve produção existente que ainda exige obras de conexão. A administração espera que as contribuições tenham início no final de 2027 ou início de 2028 e planeja apresentar detalhes sobre capital e cronograma em fevereiro.

A aquisição da Silver Creek foi concluída em 1º de outubro e o ativo foi renomeado para Silver Spur. O sistema da bacia de Powder River atualmente transporta aproximadamente 125.000 barris por dia e conta com 915.000 acres dedicados sob contratos de longo prazo. A integração com a rede existente da Plains proporcionará conectividade por meio da região de Guernsey em direção a Cushing.

A administração espera investir no sistema Silver Spur até o final de 2027. Os custos de transição de serviços e de integração devem diminuir ao longo desse período, enquanto oportunidades adicionais de mercado e benefícios para os oleodutos e terminais existentes devem se desenvolver. A administração descreveu o múltiplo de aquisição em cerca de 9 a 10 vezes o EBITDA durante os primeiros 12 meses, esperando que o múltiplo recue após esse período.

Projeções da administração

A administração espera que o crescimento da produção no Permiano em 2026 fique próximo ao topo da faixa anterior, em aproximadamente 200.000 barris por dia na base comparativa de encerramento de ano (exit-to-exit). Foram citadas a melhoria na capacidade de escoamento de gás natural, o aumento no número de sondas, eficiências de perfuração e técnicas aprimoradas de recuperação como potenciais fontes de impulso para 2027.

Para o 4T, a projeção indica um EBITDA ajustado de aproximadamente US$ 700 milhões. A administração espera que algumas oportunidades de mercado capturadas no 2T e no 3T moderem. O Silver Spur contribuirá no trimestre, mas seu benefício no curto prazo será limitado por custos de transição e integração e pela ausência das sinergias futuras esperadas.

A empresa fornecerá o guidance formal para 2027 em fevereiro. A administração apontou o crescimento do volume no Permiano, projetos de investimento, o Silver Spur e ganhos de eficiência como potenciais ventos favoráveis. Ela alertou que as recentes oportunidades de ganhos ligadas ao mercado não devem ser automaticamente anualizadas nas expectativas para 2027.

Riscos e principais pontos de atenção

• A administração destacou a contínua volatilidade geopolítica, interrupções no fornecimento global de petróleo e danos à infraestrutura de energia.
• O cronograma para capacidade adicional de oleodutos no Permiano permanece incerto, pois depende do crescimento da produção, da demanda dos clientes, dos termos contratuais e da volatilidade do mercado de petróleo bruto.
• Oportunidades recentes de mercado impulsionaram os resultados do 2T e do 3T, mas a administração não assume que esses benefícios se repetirão em 2027.
• O Silver Spur enfrenta custos de curto prazo com transição, integração e investimentos, antes do crescimento mais forte esperado pela administração a partir de 2028.
• A administração afirmou que oportunidades de aquisições complementares (bolt-on) podem ser menos frequentes do que nos últimos anos, enquanto fusões e aquisições (M&A) mais amplas continuam sujeitas a limites mínimos de retorno e à disciplina de capital.

Destaques da sessão de perguntas e respostas com analistas

A administração afirmou que a produção no Permiano pode crescer 200.000 a 300.000 barris por dia no futuro previsível, com base na atividade atual. Os oleodutos para a Costa do Golfo já estão com quase 90% de ocupação, mas a empresa acredita que a bacia pode continuar escoando a produção por vários anos.

A capacidade adicional no Permiano tem maior probabilidade de ocorrer por meio de projetos brownfield em etapas do que por um único grande oleoduto greenfield. A administração prevê uma potencial atividade de expansão por volta de 2028 até o início de 2029 e afirmou que a capacidade do Cactus III seria adicionada de forma incremental, à medida que a demanda, os contratos e as tarifas justifiquem o investimento.

Em relação ao Silver Spur, a administração vê a bacia de Powder River como uma potencial plataforma de crescimento na região das Montanhas Rochosas. Os produtores relataram melhor desempenho dos poços e custos mais baixos, enquanto alguns avaliam adicionar mais sondas. A Plains também espera que volumes adicionais apoiem seus oleodutos e terminais downstream em direção a Cushing.

Quanto a M&A, a administração informou que a Plains concluiu aproximadamente 15 transações complementares (bolt-on) nos últimos três a quatro anos. A empresa continua avaliando oportunidades tanto orgânicas quanto de aquisições, mas qualquer transação deve se alinhar à sua estratégia de petróleo bruto, disciplina de capital e exigências de retorno.

Transcrição completa da teleconferência de resultados

Transcrição completa da teleconferência de resultados

Comentários da administração

Operator

Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Plains All American Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] Please advise that today's conference is being recorded.

I'd now like to hand the conference over to your first speaker today, Blake Fernandez, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

Blake Fernandez

Thank you, Marvin, good morning, and welcome to the Plains All American third quarter 2026 earnings call. Today's slide presentation is posted on the Investor Relations website under the News and Events section at ir.plains.com. An audio replay will also be available following today's call. Important disclosures regarding forward-looking statements and non-GAAP financial measures are provided on Slide 2. An overview of today's call is provided on Slide 3, a condensed consolidating balance sheet for PAGP and other reference materials are in the appendix.

Today's call will be hosted by Willie Chiang, Chairman and CEO and President; Al Swanson, Executive Vice President and CFO, along with other members of our management team.

With that, I'm going to turn the call over to Willie.

Willie Chiang

Thank you, Blake. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us. This morning, we reported strong third quarter adjusted EBITDA attributable to plans of $711 million. Al will provide additional details on the quarterly results in his portion of the call. Our business is operating well, and we continue to demonstrate steady growth as we executed on the three initiatives that we established at the beginning of the year. First, we closed on the sale of our Canadian NGL business in May, which completes our shift to a premier crude oil midstream company and improves the quality of our cash flow and our opportunities for growth going forward. Second, we have captured $50 million of synergies in connection with the Cactus III Pipeline acquisition. And third, we remain on track to deliver $50 million of efficiencies across the organization by year-end 2026.

As we outlined on Slide 4, we have multiple levers to efficiently grow the business through a combination of organic and inorganic investment opportunities that complement our existing asset base. To further expand on the organic growth projects that we detailed in the second quarter, we're pleased to announce a 10-year agreement with the large integrated producer to further build out our Permian Midland gathering system. This new agreement includes 270,000 dedicated acres, and it provides additional growth opportunities to the POP JV, bringing our total dedicated acreage in the Permian to more than 5.3 million acres.

Outside of the Permian, we successfully closed the Silver Creek acquisition, which we have renamed Silver Spur on October 1. This further expands our presence within the Powder River Basin, where substantial drilling location with attractive economics support robust producer development into the future. Silver Spur is a strategic addition to our Rockies platform. The system currently transports approximately 125,000 barrels a day underpinned by a diversified customer base and includes 915,000 dedicated acres with long-term contractual commitments. By integrating these gathering assets into our existing network, we enhance our customer offering with long-term haul connectivity to cushing, creating commercial and operational synergies that support long-term cash flow growth.

During the quarter, we also took steps to optimize our balance sheet with a successful junior subordinated notes offering and the subsequent redemption of our preferred securities. Al will provide more detail, but these transactions meaningfully simplify our capital structure and are accretive to distributable cash flow moving forward.

On the macro front, the geopolitical landscape remains volatile with ongoing disruptions to global oil supply and damage to energy infrastructure. Global demand has remained resilient and oil inventories, including strategic petroleum reserves continued depleting, which is supporting the crude oil futures curve. Through this environment, North America remains critical to help meet global energy needs. More specific to the Permian, we expect production growth to be towards the high end of our previous range, about 200,000 barrels a day on a year-end exit-to-exit basis for 2026. The improving natural gas egress, higher rig counts over the past 6 months, continued developments of various formations in the Permian and continued advancements in drilling efficiencies and enhanced recovery techniques should and will provide momentum into 2027. We will provide a more formal outlook for 2027 Permian growth on our call in February.

With that, I'll turn the call over to Al to cover our quarterly performance and other financial matters.

Al Swanson

Thanks, Willie. Slide 5 contains adjusted EBITDA walk that provide additional details on our performance. Please note that 3Q reporting removes the NGL segment and includes one single consolidated segment for the entire company, which aligns with the sale of our Canadian NGL business that closed in May. For the third quarter, we reported adjusted EBITDA of $711 million, reflecting the benefit of operating efficiencies, annual [ ferc ] tariff rate escalations and a reduction in environmental remediation expenses relative to the second quarter.

As highlighted on Slide 6, we are on track to achieve our guidance targets for the year and narrowing the EBITDA range to plus or minus $50 million with a midpoint of $2.88 billion. Based on prevailing macro environment, we would expect to be at or slightly above the midpoint of the range for the year.

A summary of 2026 guidance and key assumptions are on Slide 7. We will provide guidance for 2027 on our call in February.

Slide 8 illustrates strong distributable cash flow generation. In September, we successfully raised $1.5 billion of 30-year junior subordinated notes, which mature in 2056, consisting of $700 million of 6.75% Series A notes, which are callable in 5 years and $800 million of 7% Series B notes, which are callable in 10 years. Subsequently, we used the proceeds along with cash on hand and commercial paper borrowings to redeem all of our Series A and Series B preferred units. This capital structure optimization is expected to increase annual distributable cash flow to common unitholders by approximately $60 million or $0.09 per unit while maintaining leverage within our targeted range.

With that, I will turn the call back to Willie.

Willie Chiang

Thank you, Al. I'm pleased with our performance year-to-date and the continued execution on our key initiatives. Our crude oil business with a more durable and predictable cash flow stream post NGL sale really positions us well for a variety of macro market conditions.

As we show on Slide 9, we continue to execute our efficient growth strategy the three announcements this quarter again demonstrate the multiple levers that we have to drive growth, including organic investments, inorganic bolt-on M&A and balance sheet optimization. We remain committed to capital discipline, maintaining a stable and flexible balance sheet and continuing to return cash to unitholders.

With that, I'll turn the call back to Blake to lead us into Q&A.

Blake Fernandez

Thanks, Willie. As we enter the Q&A session, please limit yourself to two questions. This will allow us to address as many questions as possible from our participants that are available time this morning.

With that, Marvin, we're ready for questions.

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from the line of Manav Gupta of UBS.

Perguntas e respostas

Manav Gupta

I wanted to ask you a little bit more on the 270,000-acre Midland dedication. As you ramp towards the 225 target of volumes, how should we think about the earnings uplift that this opportunity provides.

Jeremy Goebel

Manav, this is Jeremy Goebel. We're going to give you more guidance on that in February. But think of that as existing production. So it's not a ramp to production. It's just a matter of timing for connection. So that contribution will likely be late 2027, early 2028 when the connection is done, but we'll give you more guidance on capital and timing next year. But we're excited about the opportunity to partner with a top-tier producer and look forward to providing those services over a long period of time and expanding our Midland footprint.

Manav Gupta

Perfect, sir. The second question I wanted to ask you, I mean, maybe I understand there's crude volatility. But what are you hearing from the producers generally in the Permian? Do they expect continue to grow production. We know the big guys, Exxons of the world, definitely want to grow. And what we are trying to solve from our side is, when does the Permian egress start to get tightened again? Is it late 2028? Is it 2029? When do you see to the point where these existing Permian pipes, even with the Cactus III expansion are like almost 90% full?

Jeremy Goebel

Got it. Manav, that is a great question. What I would say is the volatility you experience every day waking up and seeing a headline in crude move $8 to $10, they're experiencing the same. So from a planning perspective, I think you can expect 200,000 to 300,000 barrels a day of growth for the foreseeable future based on the activity you see today. You've added 30 rigs this year, you've gotten more efficient this year. You're just starting to add completion crews. So the 200,000 barrels a day of growth that we've seen through this year, we would expect that to continue. The pipes to the coast are close to 90% full now. I think what you would see is the total basin will grow 200,000 to 300,000 barrels a day. The basin will clear for several more years. But I think your timing is appropriate for additional brownfield expansions in that '28 to '29 time period to see additional capacity come to market. So there's no need for a greenfield large pipeline at this time based on the ratable growth that we see and the smaller number of players driving growth, it seems like it's going to be orderly and that growth will happen over that time period. But your -- sometime in 2028 to early 2029, I think you'll see additional brownfield expansions. But by and large, I think rates are constructive, dialogues constructive with counterparties. We continue to recontract the pipes that we have now and look forward to continue growing the business.

Willie Chiang

Manav, this is Willie. I just wanted to add one thing. But your question is spot on. It's very difficult to predict the exact timing of it because just of the global volatility. But as I sit back and we think about what's going on in the world, global demand has remained fairly resilient. There's a lot of noise in the supply chains. If you look at where the resources are and where the demand centers are for the world. It all points to North America really being an incremental producer. So the capacity that we've got out of the Permian is meaningful, and we've got the ability to expand Cactus III. And as we've said before, we're going to match that expansion capacity to what the demand is to get to the water, but I think it really sets up for a strong macro environment going forward, trying to analyze and pick exactly when it's going to happen is very, very difficult, but we'll be patient and we stand ready to be able to meet the needs.

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Julian [indiscernible] of Jefferies.

Unknown Analyst

Can you hear me okay?

Willie Chiang

We can hear you loud and clear.

Unknown Analyst

Excellent. Look, a couple of things. Maybe just zeroing in and net picking just on the quarter itself 4Q was implied here, how do you think a little bit about just implying down? Is there any specific drag here on the -- like forthcoming quarter? And then digging a little bit more strategically to the last question here, what do you think the timing of evaluating that Cactus III expansion is vis-a-vis you talk about that '28 timeline for a brownfield expansion. When do you start moving on that, and we're getting a little bit more detail on -- I presume that that's the brownfield expansion you're getting at here.

Al Swanson

Julian, this is Al. I'll do the first part. Implied, obviously, in our guidance is about $700 million for the fourth quarter, down about 10% from the third quarter. The real change is the market opportunities that we've experienced in 2Q and 3Q that really masked that's really driving the $10 million lower number plus the inclusion of Silver Creek for the fourth quarter. If you recall, our view is Silver Creek's an asset that's going to grow meaningfully over the next few years. 4Q included in our forecast is without the benefit of some of that growth some transition services costs, integration costs, et cetera, and without the synergies. So those two basically offset the step down in some of the market opportunity that we captured kind of as the war started for second quarter and third quarter.

Jeremy Goebel

Julian, for your second part, the shorter answer is we're continually evaluating them. Just as you saw this summer, we added 75,000 barrels a day we're looking at incremental ability to add as the market demands. And so I think you'll see us ramp over that time period. There are segments of pipe we have to build to access additional markets. So it's not -- I don't know that you'll see one grand announcement series of announcements to get the pipeline ready. And then as contracts and rates are appropriate, we'll add the additional capacity. So it's not -- I don't think it's going to be one step change, another 300,000 barrels a day. I think you're going to see a series of expansions that go based on market demand.

Unknown Analyst

Got it. Excellent. And you picked up what I was trying to put down on that 4Q and on the Silver Creek piece and the contribution. But maybe talking about the TRB more broadly here. I mean obviously, you're acquiring here. How do you think about diversification in that geography here, post midterms, et cetera? Anything that you'd flag in terms of just this more strategic repositioning and adding on the margin maybe, but any points to complement your latest position there?

Jeremy Goebel

We're very excited about the Silver Spear asset. I think the Powder River Basin is one that's been candidly evaluated for over some time period, and they're just starting to figure it out. So I think it's going to ramp into 2028. We have to continue to build out the system now through 2027, but there's a series of NBCs. There's 915,000 of acreage dedications. There's 4 to 5 producers that are already telling us that the wells are better and they cost less, and they're looking to potentially add a rig into the system. So we can see the Powder River Basin as the next growth wedge in the Rockies. And that positions well for us not only on the Silver Spur asset from a gathering standpoint, but then also from a pull-through benefit to our pipelines and terminals in the Guernsey area headed south through to Cushing. So it's an integrated play for us. It's a growth on a stand-alone basis but also an integrated place. We're excited about the opportunity to work with some of our large producers that are also there.

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Jeremy Tonet of JPMorgan Securities.

Francina Kolluri

This is Francina on for Jeremy. Just wanted to zoom in a bit more on that kind of Silver Creek contribution point in 4Q. How would you kind of maybe frame or size run rate contributions and then the kinds of projects that might be incremental to kind of reach that run rate in terms of thinking about capital needs to really capture that low-hanging fruit.

Jeremy Goebel

So think of the fourth quarter as transition. There's a transition services agreement, which has some additional costs that will go away. So typically, it takes us a few months to shut off. So we'll go into next year it will be inside that cost of capital very quickly that our long-term run rate. So we have to -- from a there's an investment that needs to be made between now and the end of 2027. So it will really catch its legs in the 2028 and forward, like I said, a series of MVCs and acres dedication, but we'll be shedding costs, adding market opportunities doing some pull-through benefits on the asset through 2027. So that will be the transition year, and it will really -- 2028 forward will be a great thing for the asset. But it's inside of 10x when we start, and it compresses well inside of our cost of capital outside of that. So it's not -- from an EBITDA standpoint, you can think of this as roughly 9 to 10x in the first 12 months. And after that, it gets well inside that.

Francina Kolluri

That's very helpful. And then I just wanted to maybe talk more broadly about the M&A landscape. A lot of your peers have taken on packages this year. And so is there anything that's remaining, anything that looks interesting at this point?

Willie Chiang

Yes. I'll go ahead and take that one. This is Willie. Clearly, we've done a lot of bolt-on M&A or bolt-on acquisitions. So I'll speak about bolt-ons and then broader activities. We've actually been the ones that have been executing on a lot of these bolt-ons. We look at everything I would tell you that I think the bolt-on opportunities are probably a little less than what the pace we've gone in the past. I think we've done 15 of these over the last 3, 4 years. So it's been very critical to our piece. A broader M&A is obviously an opportunity. But right now, we focus on our crude business. We've got -- anything we do focuses on returns. So if we think about assets that we might bring in or things we may do, it's really focused around capital discipline and returns. And it's with that lens that we think about broader M&A, but look at everything, well positioned. Opportunities come our way, we'll be able to hopefully capture them.

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of AJ O'Donnell of TPH Research.

Andrew John O'Donnell

I was just hoping if I could just sneak in one more question about the new Midland dedication. Just wondering, as far as the makeup of the the volumes, are there any MVC components that are built into that? And then if you could talk about any of the volumes that are currently producing because I thought you said it was existing production. Are any of those volumes currently moving on your intrabasin or long-haul systems?

Willie Chiang

Jeremy?

Jeremy Goebel

AJ, this is Jeremy. What I would say is these are acreage dedications consistent with the rest of the system on the contract structure. The vast majority of this would be going into existing systems just into the Midland complex to say whether a specific barrels flowing through us. They're not providing any meaningful contribution to us today. And so this is just something that is a new contract from the gathering system for us.

Andrew John O'Donnell

Okay. Maybe just going back to the Permian macro. If we start to see this kind of compounding multiple hundred thousands of barrels of growth over the next few years, where do you see the most upside? Or what part of your system do you get most excited about? Is it like the incremental C3 expansions that you can do or market-based opportunities on your marketing affiliate? Or is the highest torque maybe higher utilization on your northbound assets out of the Permian?

Jeremy Goebel

AJ, it's a great question. I'd say it's a bit of all of the above because filling the pipe is one thing. What we really get excited about is longer term, the additional improvements that the industry makes on recoveries, sustaining this for long periods of time, which is what we hear over and over again from our producer customers. The excitement around the surfactants, the excitement around the different completion techniques the investments Exxon, Chevron and the other integrators are made to extending the tail. That's what really gets us excited is that the long-term recoveries. There's a lot of gas and a lot of NGLs and a lot of excitement, but that's going to make those commodities worth a lot less. There still are going to be oil reservoirs driven by oil. So there's a real investment being made to continue to drive additional recovery. So on the oil side, flattening out the curve, having less capital to go chase this, big free cash flow generation and a stable balance and -- on the margin rates going out on the long-haul business is a plus, but the gathering business should be better. The long-haul business should be better marketing-based opportunities around it. So it's just an integrated platform that we have to serve our customers, and we look forward to expanding with them.

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of John McKay of Goldman Sachs.

John Mackay

I'll go back to the Midland dedication. Congrats on that. I just want to make sure we're thinking about it correctly. I know we'll get color later on kind of associated EBITDA and any associated spend. But given this is production that's already flowing elsewhere? I mean is there an acquisition opportunity here for you guys over time on kind of whatever this production is [indiscernible] right now?

Jeremy Goebel

John, I'd say at this point, that's inappropriate for us to talk about. But from our standpoint, we look forward to executing under the contract that we have today.

John Mackay

All right. Fair enough. And -- sorry go ahead. Please go ahead.

Willie Chiang

Sorry, John, this is Willie. I mean as I think about high level, right, our whole business is integrated. So we've got -- we've been gathering intra-basin long haul. So the thought of getting another dedicated acres into the system. This is just what we do.

John Mackay

No, absolutely. That makes sense. Maybe I...

Willie Chiang

I'm sorry. I was quoting -- I misquoted the -- it's 270,000 acres here versus the 900 was up in Silver Green, the Powder River. My apologies on that. [indiscernible].

John Mackay

Absolutely. And maybe just on that point, you've probably increased the size of the dedicated acreage on the JV by looks like 30% since you kind of put it together about 5 years ago, I think we're just passed a 5-year anniversary. Can you take this opportunity to give us your view on kind of the longer-term strategic plan here? Is there an opportunity to kind of find the other piece at some point? Is this going to be a kind of vehicle you can kind of continue to grow in? Maybe just give us an update now that we're kind of 5 years past the launch of it.

Jeremy Goebel

Sure. We've had a great partnership with Stonepeak and the Works Team, and we'll continue to have a great partnership with them. That's their decision on when they decide to get out. But we've proven with them that we can grow, like you said, 30% growth over 5 years is really a 50% growth from where you started like when you think about it. So it's been a great run. It will continue to be a great run we're happy for them to grow with us. But just like everything else, we've bought a lot of our partnerships in when that's the right time if that works, great. If they want to stay outstanding great if a new partner comes in, we're prepared to work in any scenario. And we continue to grow as we've proven with them as a partner, we can grow with them or if the opportunity comes, we could do that. So I think there's no obligation to do it. There's an opportunity to do it, but there's no different than the opportunity to buy and other partners that we've had across our system.

John Mackay

Congrats again on [indiscernible].

Willie Chiang

Thanks, John.

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Praneeth Satish of Wells Fargo.

Praneeth Satish

So I know it's still early, but maybe you can help us think through some of the puts and takes for 2027 EBITDA. I know you've got a few tailwinds here, $50 million cost synergies or cost efficiencies in the full year, Silver Creek, Cactus III, probably going to see volume growth on the oil side with the flush volumes coming in. So you put that all together, it does seem like you could see some reasonable growth in '27. So maybe what are some of the key headwinds that are kind of offsetting factors that we should think about when modeling '27 growth?

Willie Chiang

Al?

Al Swanson

This is Al. Yes, I mean, we've articulated kind of the four things, and I think you answered a meaningful part of our -- of the question. Clearly, PLA, we came in this year pretty highly hedged in the low 60s, we'll probably be in the low to mid-60s by the time we exit with realized prices this year, clearly, it's setting up for meaningful improvement there, $10 a barrel is a little over $40 million. So that's a definite tailwind. Clearly, the production growth the $200,000 a day, that 1,000 barrels a day that Jeremy mentioned, a lot of that came light. We expect that to benefit in in addition to the excess rigs and the '27 growth itself. So we see the Permian volumes as a benefit. Clearly, the investment capital, whether it's our true investment expansion capital like the recent Cactus expansion. In addition, the Silver Creek acquisition as well. Those benefits will come to '27. And then the additional efficiency gains that we've talked about, the incremental $50 million, probably the one caveat or "headwind" we would point to, if you're taking that in the last three quarters of this year, the crude is right around $700 million a quarter. If you were just taking that -- annualizing it and then putting all this growth on it, clearly, we've had some market benefits in those numbers. So we would encourage you to maybe dial in a little bit of taking out some of those market opportunities. Maybe we'll see the opportunity to get those in '27, but it wouldn't be -- we wouldn't come into the year expecting to see a repeat of some of that opportunity.

Praneeth Satish

Got you. No, that's helpful. And then there are several proposed Western Canadian egress projects that could bring more barrels into the Mid-Continent. I think at least one project that would go directly into Cushing. And I don't think they're expanding capacity from pushing down. So I guess as you look across your asset footprint and I don't know whether it's Capline or other systems. Do you see any opportunities to participate or after that incremental flow?

Jeremy Goebel

Praneeth, that's a great question. And certainly, any of the crude projects we're looking to see if we can benefit, complement, participate, so we'll keep you posted along the way, but we're constantly looking at opportunities to see if we can either partner with good projects, participate, create new projects. So we'll have more updates in the next 6 months if any of that comes to fruition. But certainly, things that complement us, we're actively looking at on the organic side as well as the acquisition side.

Operator

I'm showing no further questions at this time. I'd like to turn it back to Willie Chiang, Chairman and CEO, for closing remarks.

Willie Chiang

Great. Well, listen, thanks for your ongoing support questions, and we look forward to seeing you on the road soon. Have a safe day. Thanks.

Operator

Thank you for your participation in today's conference. This does conclude the program. You may now disconnect.