Teleconferência de resultados do 3T 2026 da Alpha Metallurgical Resources (AMR): perspectivas para 2027
A Alpha Metallurgical Resources registrou EBITDA ajustado de US$ 29,4 milhões no terceiro trimestre de 2026, impulsionado por maiores embarques. Para 2027, a companhia projeta embarques totais de 14,3 a 15,7 milhões de toneladas e custo de vendas entre US$ 104 e US$ 110 por tonelada. A administração destacou pressões de custos e a necessidade de substituir uma empilhadeira-recuperadora danificada no terminal DTA, processo estimado em dois anos, embora terminais alternativos devam sustentar as operações logísticas sem grandes impactos de capital.
Principais Destaques
- A Alpha Metallurgical Resources reportou um EBITDA ajustado de US$ 29,4 milhões no 3T26, ante US$ 25,6 milhões no 2T26, com o aumento dos embarques de 3,5 milhões para 3,9 milhões de toneladas.
- O custo das vendas de carvão do segmento Met subiu para US$ 106,93 por tonelada, frente a US$ 103,07 por tonelada no trimestre anterior, enquanto o preço médio ponderado realizado do carvão metalúrgico ficou praticamente estável em US$ 124,52 por tonelada.
- A liquidez de fim de ano totalizou US$ 443,4 milhões em 30 de setembro, incluindo US$ 334,1 milhões em caixa e equivalentes de caixa. A linha de crédito ABL não apresentava saques.
- A administração projeta embarques de 14,3 milhões a 15,7 milhões de toneladas para 2027 e um custo das vendas de carvão entre US$ 104 e US$ 110 por tonelada.
- A Alpha contratou 3,5 milhões de toneladas com clientes domésticos para 2027 a um preço médio fixo de US$ 135,48 por tonelada.
- A administração prevê que a empilhadeira-recuperadora danificada do DTA precisará ser substituída, com prazo estimado em cerca de dois anos. Espera-se que a capacidade em terminais alternativos sustente os embarques planejados, embora a logística continue sendo um entrave para um aumento substancial no volume.
Principais Dados Financeiros
| Indicador | 3T26 | 2T26 | Variação ou contexto |
|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA ajustado | US$ 29,4 milhões | US$ 25,6 milhões | Aumento em relação ao trimestre anterior |
| Toneladas vendidas | 3,9 milhões | 3,5 milhões | Aumento em relação ao trimestre anterior |
| Preço médio realizado do segmento Met | US$ 121,09/tonelada | US$ 118,71/tonelada | Aumento em relação ao trimestre anterior |
| Preço médio ponderado realizado do carvão metalúrgico | US$ 124,52/tonelada | US$ 124,30/tonelada | Praticamente estável |
| Preço realizado do carvão térmico incidental | US$ 79,44/tonelada | US$ 79,36/tonelada | Praticamente estável |
| Custo das vendas de carvão do segmento Met | US$ 106,93/tonelada | US$ 103,07/tonelada | Aumento em relação ao trimestre anterior |
| SG&A ajustado | US$ 15,0 milhões | US$ 13,7 milhões | Exclui remuneração baseada em ações sem efeito em caixa e itens não recorrentes |
| Fluxo de caixa operacional | US$ 46,9 milhões | US$ 39,9 milhões | Aumento em relação ao trimestre anterior |
| Despesas de capital (Capex) | US$ 33,8 milhões | US$ 45,1 milhões | Queda em relação ao trimestre anterior |
| Liquidez total | US$ 443,4 milhões | US$ 447,8 milhões | Em 30 de setembro e 30 de junho, respectivamente |
O carvão metalúrgico de exportação precificado com base nos índices do Atlântico e outros mecanismos alcançou preço realizado de US$ 107,03 por tonelada, ante US$ 109,08 no 2T. O carvão precificado com base nos índices australianos teve preço realizado de US$ 150,46 por tonelada, acima dos US$ 143,82.
Em 30 de setembro, a Alpha possuía US$ 334,1 milhões em caixa e equivalentes de caixa e dispunha de US$ 184,3 milhões em limite disponível não utilizado na linha ABL, sujeito a uma exigência de liquidez mínima de US$ 75 milhões. A linha ABL não tinha saques efetuados e contava com US$ 40,7 milhões em cartas de crédito emitidas.
Desempenho Operacional e Comercial
O volume de embarques no 3T aumentou em relação aos 3,6 milhões de toneladas no 1T e aos 3,5 milhões de toneladas no 2T. A administração informou que as pressões de custos continuaram impactando os resultados, embora o ritmo da inflação de custos de insumos tenha desacelerado.
A Alpha está migrando seu mix de produção para mais carvão metalúrgico de baixa e média volatilidade e menos carvão de alta volatilidade. A mina Wildcat está em fase de ramp-up e deve disponibilizar pelo menos algumas centenas de milhares de toneladas adicionais de carvão de baixa volatilidade ao mercado marítimo internacional, embora clientes domésticos também tenham manifestado interesse.
Os contratos domésticos da companhia para 2027 cobrem 3,5 milhões de toneladas a um preço médio fixo de US$ 135,48 por tonelada. A administração ressaltou que o carvão de alta volatilidade representa uma fatia maior no mix de qualidade doméstico de 2027 do que em 2026, o que influenciou o preço médio contratado.
A empilhadeira-recuperadora SR1 danificada no DTA deve ser substituída em vez de reformada. A administração estimou que o projeto sob medida, a engenharia, a construção e a instalação podem levar cerca de dois anos. A Alpha planeja usar a capacidade em outros terminais de Hampton Roads durante o processo de substituição.
Guidance da Administração
| Item do guidance para 2027 | Projeção da companhia |
|---|---|
| Embarques de carvão metalúrgico | 13,1 milhões–14,1 milhões de toneladas |
| Embarques de carvão térmico incidental | 1,2 milhão–1,6 milhão de toneladas |
| Embarques totais | 14,3 milhões–15,7 milhões de toneladas |
| Custo das vendas de carvão | US$ 104–US$ 110 por tonelada |
| SG&A | US$ 53 milhões–US$ 59 milhões |
| Despesas com ociosidade | US$ 25 milhões–US$ 33 milhões |
| Receita líquida de juros em caixa | US$ 2 milhões–US$ 4 milhões |
| Depreciação, exaustão e amortização | US$ 148 milhões–US$ 162 milhões |
| Despesas de capital (Capex) | US$ 145 milhões–US$ 165 milhões |
| Aportes em coligadas | US$ 28 milhões–US$ 37 milhões |
| Alíquota efetiva de impostos em caixa | 0%–5% |
O guidance de SG&A exclui despesas não recorrentes e remuneração baseada em ações sem efeito em caixa. Os aportes em coligadas incluem contribuições em dinheiro para o DTA.
Para 2026, 87% do volume de carvão metalúrgico estava contratado e precificado a uma média de US$ 126,69 por tonelada no ponto médio do guidance. Outros 12% estavam contratados, mas ainda não precificados. O volume de carvão térmico incidental estava totalmente contratado e precificado a uma média de US$ 76,06 por tonelada.
Riscos e Pontos de Atenção
- Pressão de custos: O custo das vendas de carvão do segmento Met aumentou em relação ao trimestre anterior. O guidance da administração para 2027 pressupõe preços de diesel entre US$ 5,00 e US$ 5,50 por galão.
- Interrupção no DTA: A substituição da empilhadeira-recuperadora danificada pode levar cerca de dois anos. A administração não prevê desembolsos de capital relevantes com a troca, mas afirmou que ainda é cedo para avaliar com precisão o prazo de reembolso do seguro.
- Capacidade logística: Terminais alternativos proporcionam flexibilidade, mas a administração afirmou que não há potencial de expansão substancial além do ritmo de produção planejado atualmente. Cumprir as metas de embarque exige um desempenho confiável dos terminais e das ferrovias.
- Volatilidade no mercado de carvão: A administração apontou conflitos geopolíticos, o cenário econômico global e a fraca demanda mundial por aço como fontes de incerteza.
- Oscilação dos índices: O índice Australian Premium Low Vol caiu de US$ 272,10 por tonelada métrica em 30 de setembro para US$ 262,20 em 5 de novembro, enquanto as variações dos índices da Costa Leste dos EUA oscilaram de acordo com a qualidade do carvão.
Destaques da Sessão de Perguntas e Respostas com Analistas
A administração afirmou que a maior parte dos aumentos nos custos de insumos já foi incorporada à base de custos da Alpha e que não espera um aumento relevante em relação ao ritmo operacional (run rate) atual em 2027. A Alpha consome entre 20 milhões e 22 milhões de galões de diesel em suas operações, o que torna os preços dos combustíveis um fator importante de sensibilidade de custos.
Quanto ao potencial de aumento na produção, a administração indicou que o DTA continua sendo um gargalo, apesar do acesso adicional a outros terminais de exportação. A Alpha está confortável com seu ritmo planejado para 2027, mas não enxerga um crescimento expressivo acima do teto das estimativas sem um desempenho sólido de terminais e ferrovias.
O ramp-up da mina Wildcat deve elevar a oferta de carvão de baixa volatilidade. A administração destacou que as decisões comerciais terão como foco os retornos líquidos, em vez de priorizar se as vendas estão atreladas especificamente aos índices da Austrália ou da Costa Leste dos EUA.
Em relação à alocação de capital, a Alpha segue avaliando potenciais transações, mas exige sinergias geográficas e de qualidade, além de agregação de valor financeiro (acretion). A administração afirmou que poucas oportunidades disponíveis no momento atendem a essas três condições.
Os gastos planejados com desenvolvimento para 2027 incluem obras de contenção de rejeitos na Virgínia para apoiar a usina de beneficiamento de McClure e a Deep Mine 41, possíveis intervenções na usina de beneficiamento de Kepler, que atende a Road Fork 52, e trabalhos prospectivos limitados em projetos de prazo mais longo.
Transcrição Completa da Teleconferência de Resultados
Transcrição completa da teleconferência de resultados
Comentários da administração
Operator
Greetings. Welcome to the Alpha Metallurgical Resources Third Quarter 2026 Results Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] Please note, this conference is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to your host, Emily O'Quinn, Senior Vice President, Investor Relations and Communications. You may begin.
Emily O'Quinn
Thank you, Rob. Good morning, everyone. Before we get started, let me remind you that during our prepared remarks, our comments regarding anticipated business and financial performance contain forward-looking statements, and actual results may differ materially from those discussed. For more information regarding forward-looking statements and some of the factors that can affect them, please refer to the company's third quarter 2026 earnings release and the associated SEC filing. Please also see those documents for information about our use of non-GAAP measures and their reconciliation to GAAP measures.
On the call today, I'm joined by Alpha's Chief Executive Officer, Andy Eidson; and Chief Financial Officer, Todd Munsey, who will provide prepared remarks. Also participating on the call are our President and Chief Operating Officer, Jason Whitehead; and our Chief Commercial Officer, Dan Horn. Following the prepared remarks, we will be available to answer questions.
With that, I'll turn the call over to Andy.
Charles Eidson
Thanks, Emily, and good morning, everyone. Today, we released our definitive third quarter financial results, which include adjusted EBITDA of $29.4 million and 3.9 million tons shipped. Our third quarter volumes improved compared to the first 2 quarters of the year, which were 3.6 million and 3.5 million tons, respectively. Cost pressures continue to influence our financial results, and we remain committed to managing these cost challenges and continually evaluating the portfolio against the needs of the metallurgical coal market.
Speaking of the market, we have completed our annual budgeting process that culminates in the operational guidance expectations we issued today. I'll let Todd cover those in detail, but it's important to note that our 2027 guidance reflects current expectations for the coming calendar year, which includes our analysis of potential financial impacts and 2027 terminal capabilities at DTA in Newport News. Following the storm-related damage that occurred in June, DTA management has worked diligently to keep operations moving and collaborate with the various parties about potential go-forward plans.
As a result of these conversations, DTA believes the stacker reclaimer referred to as SR1 will need to be replaced as opposed to repaired, and they've been in close contact with DTA's insurance provider about covering the replacement cost as well as potentially certain other expenses incurred due to the damage. As such, it's important to note that we do not anticipate significant capital outlays in association with the stacker reclaimer replacement process. As far as timing is concerned, a total replacement of the stacker reclaimer would be a fully custom build requiring specialized design, engineering, construction and installation.
Such work will likely require a lengthy time line, with current estimates in the 2-year ballpark. This is why we've worked so hard to establish a logistical framework that minimizes our disruption -- the disruption to our sales and logistics processes and allows us to keep coal moving to our customers while DTA addresses the damaged stacker reclaimer. This includes a plan to also utilize our throughput capacity at other Hampton Roads terminals in addition to DTA. As evidenced by our more normalized third quarter shipment volumes, we are optimistic about our ability to move all the tons we need to in 2027 and beyond.
As we look to next year, our guidance includes 3.5 million tons that we plan to sell to domestic customers in 2027 at an average price of $135.48 per ton. We're pleased to announce the results of the domestic negotiations, which are fixed-price annual contracts. Each year's negotiation is a little different depending on the market backdrop and a variety of factors. For example, high-vol made up a greater proportion of our 2027 domestic quality mix than in 2026, which influences the average price achieved for the total domestic book. All in all, we're pleased with these commitments, and we look forward to building the rest of our 2027 sales around opportunities in the seaborne market.
As usual, our teams are doing great work throughout the Alpha organization, and several operations have received recognition for their efforts. On the environmental front, our Paramont team in Virginia was recently honored with 3 Excellence in Mining awards from the Metallurgical Coal Producers Association. Virginia Energy also awarded them with 3 Safety Awards at their recent ceremony. Both of Alpha's mine rescue teams continue stacking wins as well, including first and second place finishes across many categories of competition in the National Mine Rescue contest that was held in August. We're extremely proud of our Paramont team that earned the top honor of National Grand Champion this year with a perfect score for the competition. These miners continually train, practice and challenge themselves so they're prepared to respond when their skills are needed. So congratulations to all those team members.
I'll now turn the call over to Todd for a review of our financial results for the third quarter.
Todd Munsey
Thanks, Andy. Good morning, everyone. Adjusted EBITDA for the third quarter was $29.4 million, up from $25.6 million in the second quarter. We sold 3.9 million tons in Q3, up from 3.5 million tons in Q2. Met segment realizations increased quarter-over-quarter with an average realization of $121.09 in the third quarter compared to $118.71 in the second quarter. Export Met tons priced against Atlantic indices and other pricing mechanisms in the third quarter realized $107.03 per ton, while export coal priced on the Australian indices realized $150.46 per ton.
These results are compared to realizations of $109.08 per ton and $143.82 per ton, respectively, in the second quarter. The realization for our metallurgical sales in the third quarter was a total weighted average of $124.52 per ton, roughly flat against the second quarter average of $124.30 per ton. Realizations in the incidental thermal portion of the Met segment were also essentially flat quarter-over-quarter at $79.44 per ton in Q3 compared to $79.36 per ton in Q2. Cost of coal sales for our Met segment increased to $106.93 per ton in the third quarter, up from $103.07 per ton in the second quarter. SG&A, excluding noncash stock compensation and nonrecurring items, increased to $15 million in the third quarter compared to $13.7 million in the second quarter.
Moving to the balance sheet and cash flows. As of September 30, we had $334.1 million in cash and cash equivalents as compared to $338.5 million of cash and short-term investments as of June 30. We had $184.3 million in unused availability under our ABL at the end of the third quarter, partially offset by a minimum required liquidity of $75 million. As of the end of September, Alpha had total liquidity of $443.4 million, down slightly from $447.8 million at the end of June. CapEx for the third quarter was $33.8 million, down from $45.1 million in Q2. Cash provided by operating activities was $46.9 million in the third quarter, up from $39.9 million in the second quarter. As of September 30, our ABL facility had no borrowings and $40.7 million of letters of credit outstanding.
Looking ahead, we issued 2027 operational guidance this morning. For sales volumes, we expect to ship between 13.1 million and 14.1 million metallurgical tons as well as another 1.2 million to 1.6 million tons of incidental thermal coal, bringing total 2027 shipment expectations to a range of 14.3 million to 15.7 million tons for the year. For 2027 cost of coal sales, we are guiding to a range of $104 to $110 per ton. Selling, general and administrative costs are expected to be between $53 million and $59 million in 2027, excluding nonrecurring expenses and noncash stock compensation. Idle expense is expected to be between $25 million and $33 million. We anticipate 2027 net cash interest income of between $2 million and $4 million and depreciation, depletion and amortization of $148 million to $162 million.
Capital expenditures, including carryover development and maintenance capital, are expected to be in the range of $145 million to $165 million. Contributions to equity affiliates are expected to be in the range of $28 million to $37 million, which include cash contributions for DTA. Lastly, we are projecting a 2027 cash tax rate of between 0% and 5%.
In terms of our committed position for 2026, at the midpoint of guidance, 87% of our metallurgical tonnage in the Met segment is committed and priced at an average price of $126.69. Another 12% of our Met tonnage for the year is committed, but not yet priced. The thermal byproduct portion of the Met segment is fully committed and priced at the midpoint of guidance at an average price of $76.06.
Coal markets remain subject to uncertainty and volatility resulting from geopolitical conflicts and global economic conditions. Improving indicators and manufacturing conditions across key Alpha markets suggest that economic conditions are stable with almost all in growth territory. While global steel demand remains weak, supply related factors such as mine closure announcements temporarily influenced metallurgical coal indices to rise toward the end of the third quarter with further volatility continuing after the quarter close.
The Australian Premium Low Vol index increased from $244 per metric ton on July 1 to $272.10 per metric ton on September 30. The U.S. East Coast Low Vol index rose from $190 per metric ton at the beginning of the quarter to $210 per metric ton by the end of September. The U.S. East Coast High Vol A index increased from $157 per metric ton at the start of the quarter to $195 per metric ton at the quarter's close. And the U.S. East Coast High Vol B index rose from $147 per metric ton to $170 per metric ton at the end of the quarter. Since then, the Australian Premium Low Vol index has decreased to $262.20 per metric ton as of November 5, representing a drop of roughly 4% since quarter close.
U.S. East Coast Low Vol is unchanged from quarter close, at $210 per ton. U.S. East Coast High Vol A has declined about 3% to $190 per ton, while High Vol B has risen slightly to $174.50 per ton as of November 5. In the seaborne thermal market, the API2 index was $115.50 per metric ton at the beginning of July and increased to $141.40 per metric ton at the end of September. Since then, the API2 index has moved down to $136.30 per metric ton as of November 5.
With that, operator, we are now ready to open the call for questions.
Operator
[Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from George Eadie with UBS.
Perguntas e respostas
George Eadie
Can I ask on the cost front? So cash costs only 2% higher year-on-year at midpoint, even if I adjust for marginally higher midpoint sales volumes. Can you maybe just talk through what goes into that and sort of potential cost sensitivities for things like diesel? And I guess it sort of seems like a very low year-on-year cost increase given a lot in this sector are talking about a lot of input and broader sort of cost pressures.
Charles Eidson
George, this is Andy. I appreciate the question. Yes, we're actually pretty pleased with where our cost guidance is coming out for next year, although it is up a bit. I mean we've really seen the vast majority of the input cost impacts have already found their way into the system for us. So again, we would hope that there would be some relief on the diesel side. Hopefully, that situation gets resolved sometime in the near future.
And even then, it will take a while to work its way through the system. But we're just -- we're not saying that the input cost increases have flatlined, but the rate of increase has tailed back quite a bit. And once you bake in the impact of the diesel and all the oil adjuncts, I think we're -- currently, our run rate is pretty well reflective of that. So next year, we don't see a material amount of increase from there.
George Eadie
What diesel price did you assume in guidance for '27, Andy?
Charles Eidson
Off the top of my head, I don't know. Yes, I think it was low to mid-5s on a per gallon cost.
George Eadie
Okay. And then like what's the sensitivity, if you were to sort of estimate ballpark per ton on your cash cost, if that went back to sort of, say, mid-3s, like what's the potential production cash cost?
Charles Eidson
Well, I'll leave you to do the math on that, but we do run in the low 20 million gallons of diesel across all operations. So 20 million to 22 million gallons. So you could figure what the sensitivity is on that across all the tons.
George Eadie
Okay. Yes, that's perfect. And then just one more, sort of getting back to the 16 million ton per annum levels. Can you talk through how that looks? And if DTA sort of being down for the 2-year ballpark you guys flagged, is a constraint? Or I guess another way of asking was if markets got a lot stronger next year, could you push beyond that 15.7 million upper end, do you think? Or like what is the constraining limit to higher volumes for you guys at the moment?
Charles Eidson
Yes. I mean DTA obviously will be a constraint. Our sales and logistics team has done a really nice job, as I mentioned in the comments -- the prepared comments. They've done a nice job of finding flexibility and optionality with other export terminal access. So there will be a point in which we can't expand any further. I'm not going to throw out a number for that because, again, the team is pretty creative in finding new paths to get tons where we need them to go. But I think we're comfortable with our current run rate. I don't think there's a huge amount of upside to that.
And we're going to need the terminals to operate well, we're going to need the railroads to perform well to hit all of our numbers the way we want to. But I think we're going to be able to get there. And it's not going to look that different year-over-year comparing to 2026. From a quality perspective, it's going to look a little bit different because, again, I think we are moving around in our -- as has been our plan, we are shifting as a lot of other folks are. We've been working on a multiyear plan to shift more of our production from higher-ranked coals from the low-vol and mid-vol and a little bit less on the high-vol side. So that will continue to develop. But I think logistically, all of that fits pretty well into what we've got planned for 2027.
Operator
Our next question comes from Nick Giles with B. Riley Securities.
Nick Giles
It was good to hear that there's more high-vol coal in the domestic mix, which I assume leaves more low-vol coals to send into the seaborne market. So I was wondering if you could just quantify that mix shift, maybe how many incremental tons of low-vol would you be able to send -- export next year?
Charles Eidson
Nick, I'll throw that one over to Dan. That one is definitely -- he's got the numbers at his fingertips there.
Daniel Horn
Thanks, Andy. Well, let's start by saying that the high-vol that moved into the domestic market, that's coal that is a little -- let's say, a little lower value coal, and that was reflected in the overall comments that we have there in the pricing. But as we ramp up the low-vol mine, our new Wildcat mine, it's kind of dynamic. So you can't really compare our portfolio in '26 to what it's going to look like in '27. So as Wildcat ramps up, we'll have more low-vol available.
And broadly speaking, that's -- at this moment, that's all available for the seaborne market, but we've had a lot of interest in the domestic market, too, as it ramps up. But I won't give you a number, but it's several hundred thousand tons at least that would be available to go seaborne easily as well as our usual mix of high-vol and quite a bit of medium-vol, which is always sought after.
Nick Giles
Got it. Okay. I mean any sense for how much of that would be PLV linked? Or I guess, kind of what do the commercial discussions look like today in terms of getting more tons sold on a PLV basis?
Daniel Horn
Yes. I don't have -- there's -- I'll say this, there's quite a bit of interest from customers that we would sell against the Aussie indices, but I can't quantify that. The Wildcat coal is a premium coal that should -- that will achieve a premium to a lot of other U.S. low-vols, we think. So whether we sell it against an Aussie index or very strongly against the U.S. East Coast index, I mean, we're happy. We focus on the net return, not just the index.
Nick Giles
Makes sense. No, I appreciate that. Maybe just shifting gears to the stacker reclaimer. It's good to hear that you feel like that's fully covered from an insurance perspective. But how should we think about the timing of those insurance reimbursements versus any capital outlays that may be required? Or said differently, is there a scenario where you might have to invest in the new stacker reclaimer and kind of wait a few quarters for the insurance reimbursements to come in?
Charles Eidson
Yes. I think it's probably a little too early to comment on that one, Nick. I don't expect there to be too much of a sequencing problem from that respect, certainly not a multi-quarter type of reimbursement gap. Obviously, you may have a few weeks or a few months, but we're pretty pleased with how our insurance -- or DTA's insurance carriers has responded thus far. They've been very helpful and constructive in helping us move along this process relatively quickly. So yes, I don't expect an impact. But again, it's probably too early in the process to be making too many prognostications there.
Nick Giles
Okay. No, fair enough, Andy. Maybe just one last one from me on the capital allocation front. Would just be good to get an update on what you're seeing among your kind of smaller peers in Central App. Are there any opportunities out there to pick up some tons at a discount? Or have you heard any rumblings of kind of more capacity that's come offline?
Charles Eidson
Really not in a position to comment on any of those folks. I mean they'll have to speak for themselves. There's -- as we've always taken the position, we look at anything and everything. We want things to be a good strategic fit. If things are available, we want it to be either -- or not either, but a combination of geographically synergistic, quality synergistic and accretive from a financial standpoint. And those boxes, all 3 boxes are kind of hard to check right now when you look around the chessboard.
But there are some things out there that we can look at. But again, we're really focused on managing our own portfolio, particularly in markets like this, making sure that we're optimizing our outcomes and optimizing both the productivity and the profitability of the portfolio.
Operator
[Operator Instructions] Our next question comes from Nathan Martin with StoneX.
Nathan Martin
I had a question on DTA as well. I mean just given the fact that you said the repair/replacement time line could be extended into a year or 2. Just curious, do you see any opportunity to improve logistics or lower transportation or port costs in the meantime?
Charles Eidson
In the meantime, before we get to a repaired DTA? Probably not. I mean that's more of a focus on just getting the tons moved where we can as best we can. On the other side of DTA and during the repair, could there be some opportunities? Yes, I mean, any time you're looking at older equipment that's going to have to be replaced for any reason, you're going to hope to find some opportunities to improve things and whether it's from a throughput capacity standpoint or from a cost reduction. So -- but that will -- that's for future conversations as we actually get into the nuts and bolts of mechanically fixing and replacing the SR.
Nathan Martin
All right. Understood, Andy. I appreciate that. And then maybe looking at CapEx for '27. Guidance falls roughly flat year-over-year. I noticed an updated slide in your deck with kind of the breakdown there, but maybe you can provide a little more detail around the development projects you plan to spend capital on in '27 because I see that's kind of ticked up a little bit there.
Charles Eidson
Yes. I mean some of that is related to existing operations. We do have some refuse impoundment needs in Virginia that will obviously extend the life and help with managing the waste cost at the McClure prep plant, where Deep Mine 41 is handled. So that's obviously something that we're very focused on. Likewise, some potential work at the Kepler prep plant, where Road Fork 52 reports. And Road Fork 52, Deep Mine 41 definitely being at the top of our list as far as the portfolio of mines that we have.
Any development -- any other development, we're looking at other -- kind of our next projects, which are a little bit longer dated, a couple, 3 years out, just doing a little bit of prospective work there, not necessarily committing to a project, but making sure things are moving to the extent where if we want to pursue a project, we're not losing any time. So not a whole lot to report on that just yet.
Nathan Martin
All right. I appreciate that. And then maybe a final question for Dan. Dan, how should we think about the quality mix of what you guys have left to sell here for '26? I think you're roughly 80% committed and priced at the midpoint of guidance, so seemingly a few tons left to put to bed. How should we think about that as we head to the end of the year?
Daniel Horn
Yes, Nate, probably the typical blend. Maybe a little heavier with the low-vol. As Wildcat ramps up, we're producing a little more of that. So I don't think -- probably the same roughly blend. Still a fair half high-vol maybe and maybe the rest mid and low, something like that. But again, with -- going forward -- I'm sorry, going forward, more low. Our plan is and it will happen that we're going to have more low-vol in our mix and more medium-vol as we go forward. That's certainly the plan, and less high-vol. But the rest of the year is pretty well known. It's right in front of us.
Operator
We have reached the end of the question-and-answer session. I would now turn the call over to Andy Eidson for closing remarks.
Charles Eidson
Well, thanks, everyone, for dialing into the call and checking in online. We appreciate your interest in Alpha, and we hope you all have a great weekend.
Operator
This concludes today's conference. You may disconnect your lines at this time, and we thank you for your participation.
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