Teleconferência de Resultados do 3T26 da Westrock Coffee (WEST): EBITDA Recorde e Ramp-up de Conway
A Westrock Coffee Company registrou um EBITDA ajustado recorde de US$ 26,4 milhões no terceiro trimestre de 2026, alta de 14% na comparação anual, impulsionado pelo crescimento em extratos e bebidas prontas para consumo e pela melhora operacional da unidade de Conway. As vendas líquidas consolidadas caíram 15,4% para US$ 300 milhões, refletindo restituições de tarifas e menores preços do café verde. A administração manteve o guidance de EBITDA ajustado para 2026 entre US$ 90 milhões e US$ 100 milhões e estimou 2027 em cerca de US$ 130 milhões. A empresa concluiu um refinanciamento de US$ 600 milhões, estendendo os vencimentos para outubro de 2031.
A Westrock Coffee Company (NASDAQ: WEST) registrou EBITDA ajustado recorde no terceiro trimestre de 2026, apesar da menor receita reportada. A administração atribuiu a melhora ao crescimento em extratos e bebidas prontas para consumo, maior utilização de Conway, alavancagem operacional e menores gastos de capital.
Principais destaques
- O EBITDA ajustado consolidado do 3T atingiu o recorde de US$ 26,4 milhões, alta de aproximadamente 14% na comparação anual. O EBITDA ajustado acumulado em nove meses subiu 58% para US$ 73,7 milhões.
- As vendas líquidas caíram 15,4% para aproximadamente US$ 300 milhões, refletindo principalmente US$ 26 milhões em restituições de tarifas, menores preços de repasse do café verde e a perda de um cliente de dose única discutida anteriormente. Excluindo as restituições de tarifas, as vendas líquidas teriam sido de aproximadamente US$ 326 milhões.
- Conway está operando a cerca de 40% da capacidade atual. A administração afirmou que os programas contratados devem elevar a utilização para cerca de 85% nos próximos 18 meses.
- A Westrock Coffee manteve sua projeção de EBITDA ajustado para 2026 de US$ 90 milhões a US$ 100 milhões, com sua estimativa atual próxima ao ponto médio de US$ 95 milhões. A projeção inicial para 2027 é de aproximadamente US$ 130 milhões.
- A empresa concluiu um refinanciamento de US$ 600 milhões que estende os vencimentos bancários para outubro de 2031 e deve reduzir o serviço da dívida obrigatório em cerca de US$ 17 milhões no primeiro ano.
- O fluxo de caixa livre do 3T foi positivo pelo segundo trimestre consecutivo. As despesas de capital caíram para US$ 8,8 milhões, menos da metade do nível do ano anterior.
Principais dados financeiros
| Métrica | 3T 2026 | Variação ou comparação | Comentários |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vendas líquidas consolidadas | Aproximadamente US$ 300 milhões | Queda de 15,4% na comparação anual | Inclui aproximadamente US$ 26 milhões em restituições de tarifas registradas como redução nas vendas |
| Vendas líquidas excluindo restituições de tarifas | Aproximadamente US$ 326 milhões | — | Os reembolsos não tiveram impacto no lucro bruto, pois os reembolsos relacionados de fornecedores reduziram o custo dos produtos vendidos |
| Lucro bruto consolidado | US$ 41,5 milhões | Estável na comparação anual | Inclui US$ 3,1 milhões de depreciação incremental de Conway |
| Lucro operacional | US$ 3,2 milhões | Frente a um prejuízo de US$ 8,6 milhões | Melhora de US$ 11,8 milhões na comparação anual |
| Prejuízo líquido | US$ 10,0 milhões | Frente a US$ 19,1 milhões | Redução de quase 50% |
| EBITDA ajustado consolidado | US$ 26,4 milhões | Alta de aproximadamente 14% na comparação anual | Resultado trimestral recorde |
| EBITDA ajustado de Soluções em Bebidas | US$ 23,3 milhões | Alta de aproximadamente 14% na comparação anual | Beneficiou-se da comercialização de Conway e da gestão de custos |
| EBITDA ajustado de Fornecimento Sustentável e Rastreabilidade | US$ 3,2 milhões | Frente a US$ 5,8 milhões | A administração atribuiu o recuo ao cronograma de vendas |
| Fluxo de caixa operacional | US$ 9,9 milhões | — | Sustentou o fluxo de caixa livre positivo |
| Fluxo de caixa livre | US$ 1,1 milhão | Positivo pelo segundo trimestre consecutivo | O fluxo de caixa livre acumulado no 2T e no 3T foi de aproximadamente US$ 21 milhões |
| Despesas de capital | US$ 8,8 milhões | Frente a US$ 18,1 milhões | Reflete a transição de Conway da construção para a operação |
| Alavancagem líquida garantida | Aproximadamente 3,1x | 3,4x no 2T; 4,6x um ano antes | Recuou cerca de 1,5 vez em 12 meses |
Nos primeiros nove meses de 2026, as vendas líquidas consolidadas aumentaram 8% para US$ 915 milhões, enquanto o lucro bruto subiu aproximadamente 11% para US$ 125 milhões. O lucro operacional foi de US$ 5 milhões, em comparação com um prejuízo operacional de US$ 36,7 milhões no mesmo período do ano anterior.
Desempenho Comercial e Operacional
O crescimento de dois dígitos na plataforma de extratos e bebidas prontas para consumo (ready-to-drink) da Westrock Coffee liderou o desempenho subjacente. A administração afirmou que a demanda por bebidas continuou a crescer, mesmo com o fluxo de clientes em restaurantes fast-food (quick-service) e lojas de conveniência nos EUA permanecendo sob pressão.
A unidade de Conway é central para a estratégia de crescimento da empresa. A fábrica opera atualmente com cerca de 40% de utilização, e programas contratados com clientes devem elevá-la para aproximadamente 85% nos próximos 18 meses. A administração destacou que, nesse nível de utilização, Conway sozinha geraria mais EBITDA ajustado do que os US$ 70 milhões gerados por toda a empresa em 2025.
A empresa também informou ter garantido novos negócios que representam uma estimativa de US$ 60 milhões em EBITDA anualizado, com um pipeline superior a US$ 100 milhões. No segmento de dose única (single serve), os novos contratos substituíram aproximadamente um terço dos negócios perdidos no ano anterior.
A unidade de Conway também tem impulsionado as vendas cruzadas (cross-selling). Mais de 70% dos novos clientes adquiriram produtos de múltiplas categorias, de acordo com a administração. A demanda por produtos lácteos ultrafiltrados e com alto teor de proteína também gerou um número recorde de itens em desenvolvimento.
A alavancagem operacional continuou a melhorar. As despesas operacionais ficaram praticamente estáveis na comparação anual, apesar do crescimento de Conway, e a administração espera que uma parcela significativa do lucro bruto incremental proveniente de novos programas se reverta em EBITDA. O 3T também foi o primeiro trimestre sem ajustes de custos (add-backs) relacionados a Conway, tornando o trimestre uma base de comparação mais relevante para as despesas gerais, administrativas e de vendas (SG&A).
Guidance da Administração
| Perspectivas | Guidance da administração | Principais condições |
|---|---|---|
| EBITDA ajustado consolidado para 2026 | US$ 90M-US$ 100M | A estimativa atual está próxima do ponto médio de US$ 95M; o resultado final depende em grande parte de decisões sobre o mix de clientes |
| Despesas de capital para 2026 | Aproximadamente US$ 30M | Em comparação com US$ 89M em 2025 e US$ 160M em 2024 |
| EBITDA ajustado consolidado para 2027 | Aproximadamente US$ 130M | As alocações de clientes continuam sujeitas a decisões previstas para o 1T de 2027 |
| Despesas de capital para 2027 | US$ 30M-US$ 35M | Inclui investimentos incrementais de crescimento para atender aos compromissos com clientes |
A administração espera que diversos programas contratados sejam lançados em meados e no final de 2027. Como resultado, a empresa prevê encerrar 2027 com uma taxa de execução (run rate) de EBITDA anualizado substancialmente superior ao montante reconhecido durante o ano.
No longo prazo, a administração acredita que novos investimentos em produção e envase poderiam dobrar novamente a contribuição de Conway para o EBITDA nos próximos três a cinco anos. A empresa também indicou que o EBITDA ajustado de 2028 poderia crescer aproximadamente 30%-40% em relação ao nível projetado para 2027, ao mesmo tempo em que enfatizou que os prazos e as alocações dos clientes permanecem incertos.
Refinanciamento e Balanço Patrimonial
A Westrock Coffee concluiu novas linhas de crédito sênior garantidas de primeiro grau de US$ 600 milhões, compostas por US$ 300 milhões em empréstimos a prazo e US$ 300 milhões em linhas de crédito rotativo. As linhas vencem em outubro de 2031. Os compromissos dos credores totalizaram aproximadamente US$ 737 milhões, permitindo à empresa aumentar a transação em relação à sua meta inicial de US$ 500 milhões.
Como parte do refinanciamento, a Westrock Coffee recomprou US$ 40 milhões de seus US$ 72 milhões em notas conversíveis com vencimento em 2029, utilizando aproximadamente US$ 21 milhões em dinheiro e emitindo aproximadamente 2,4 milhões de ações. Os restantes US$ 32 milhões foram prorrogados para 20 de janeiro de 2032.
Após o fechamento, o caixa irrestrito e a disponibilidade da linha de crédito rotativo não utilizada totalizavam aproximadamente US$ 270 milhões, em comparação com aproximadamente US$ 95 milhões em 30 de setembro. A administração afirmou que suas prioridades de curto prazo são reter caixa e reduzir o endividamento, em vez de realizar recompras de ações.
Riscos e Pontos de Atenção
- A administração descreveu a demanda do consumidor como instável rumo ao 4T, particularmente onde os custos de combustível pressionam o fluxo de clientes.
- Os preços de alimentos e combustíveis continuam sendo variáveis de curto prazo que a administração está monitorando.
- O resultado do EBITDA de 2026 depende em parte das decisões finais sobre o mix de clientes, enquanto as perspectivas para 2027 permanecem sujeitas às alocações de volume de clientes e ao cronograma de lançamento de programas.
- A administração espera que a alavancagem líquida garantida aumente temporariamente em aproximadamente 0,5 vez no 4T, seguido por mais 0,25-0,5 vez no 1T de 2027, devido ao pagamento anual de incentivos a funcionários e a reembolsos de tarifas repassados aos clientes.
- Parte do fluxo de caixa livre recente foi beneficiada pelo efeito temporário no capital de giro, que a administração espera que se reverta. Espera-se que uma desalavancagem expressiva seja retomada a partir do 2T de 2027.
- O pipeline de desenvolvimento em expansão de Conway gera exigências de execução em torno de comercialização, produção e atendimento ao cliente.
Destaques da Sessão de Perguntas e Respostas com Analistas
Alocação de capital: A administração planeja priorizar a retenção de caixa e a redução da dívida. A empresa pode considerar oportunidades internas ou externas que não aumentem a alavancagem líquida, mas indicou que recompras de ações são improváveis no curto prazo.
Ritmo dos resultados de 2027: A perspectiva de EBITDA ajustado de aproximadamente US$ 130 milhões inclui programas de clientes com lançamento previsto para meados e o final de 2027. Portanto, a administração espera que o run rate anualizado no fim do ano supere o resultado do ano completo.
Despesas de capital: A empresa projeta despesas de capital para 2027 de US$ 30 milhões a US$ 35 milhões. A administração não prevê retornar a gastos anuais de US$ 50 milhões a US$ 60 milhões sob o plano operacional atual.
Margens: A administração espera que a margem bruta aumente à medida que Conway passe a representar uma fatia maior do mix de negócios. Os programas de Conway têm margens mais altas do que grande parte dos negócios consolidados da empresa, enquanto despesas operacionais incrementais limitadas devem favorecer a conversão em EBITDA.
Transcrição Completa da Teleconferência de Resultados
Transcrição completa da teleconferência de resultados
Comentários da administração
Operator
At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. After the speaker's presentation, there will be a question and answer session. To ask a question during the session, you will need to press star 1 1 on your telephone. You will then hear an automated message advising your hand is raised. To withdraw your question, please press star 1 1 again. Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. I would now like to hand the conference over to our first speaker, Joanne Arnold, VP of Investor Relations.
Please go ahead.
Operator
Thank you and welcome to Westrock Coffee Company's third quarter 2026 earnings conference call. Today's call is being recorded. With us are Mr. Scott Ford, co-founder and chief executive officer, and Mr. Chris Pledger, chief financial officer. By now, everyone should have access to the company's third quarter earnings release issued earlier today. This information is available on the investor relations section of Westrock Coffee Company's website at investors. Certain comments made on this call include forward-looking statements which are subject to the safe harbor provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These forward-looking statements are based on management's current expectations and beliefs concerning future events and are subject to several risks and uncertainties that could actual results to differ materially from those described in these forward-looking statements.
Please refer to today's press release and other filings with the SEC for a more detailed discussion of the risk factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed or implied in any forward-looking statements made today. Also, discussions during the call use certain non-GAAP financial measures as we describe business performance. The SEC filings, as well as the earnings press release, provide reconciliations of these non-GAAP financial measures to the most directly comparable GAAP measures. And with that, it is my pleasure to turn the call over to Scott Ford, our co-founder and chief executive officer.
Scott Ford
Thank you, Juwan. Good afternoon, everyone, and thanks for joining us. I want to focus on three things today, our growth and the operating model behind it. strength of the beverage category and what it says about the investments we've made and the refinancing we've just completed. growth the third quarter was a record quarter for Westrock consolidated adjusted EBITDA reached a record twenty six point four million up about 14% from a year ago and through the nine months it's up about 58% it was our sixth consecutive quarter of year-over-year EBITDA growth and our second straight quarter of positive free cash flow. That is the operating model doing what we built it to do and the credit belongs to our people and the customers who trust us with their brands. Second, the category. Quick service restaurant and convenience store traffic in the U.S. is down this year, yet beverage keeps growing. Operators are building out energy, refreshers, cold coffee, and craft formats because those programs draw traffic and carry some of the best margins on their menus. That is the demand Conway was built to serve, and it is why our extract and ready-to-drink programs kept growing in a soft consumer quarter. Today Conway is running at about 40% of its current capacity and committed programs take it to roughly 85% over the next 18 months.
At that level, Conway alone will generate more than the 70 million in consolidated adjusted EBITDA this entire company produced in 2025. As we continue to add production capabilities and packaging equipment over the next three to five years, we believe we can double the EBITDA contribution from Conway yet again. Customers who come for Conway are putting programs in place across the rest of our platform, too. So far this year, we've won new business worth an estimated $60 million of annualized EBITDA, with a pipeline of more than 100 million behind that. And in single serve, we've already contracted enough new business to replace one-third of the business we lost last year. This begins in early 2017. That said, the consumer remains choppy heading into the fourth quarter, especially where fuel costs weigh on traffic. But most of our growth comes from contracted programs coming online, not simply from a rising consumer tide.
Third, the refinancing. Even in a tight financing market, our lenders committed 737 million to a 500 million deal ask, and we were pleased to close our new 600 million upsized facility late last month. It matures in October of 2031, and we are grateful for the confidence and the leadership of Rabobank and several other large institutions that have made this refinancing possible. With construction behind us and capital spending a fraction of what it has been, this was the last ingredient we needed to build a large, profitable business. platform, the people, the customers, and now a balance sheet built for the long term. This brings me to our outlook. For 2026, we continue to expect consolidated adjusted EBITDA between 90 and 100 million, largely dependent on final customer mix decision. Our current estimate is squarely in the middle of this range. At a 95 million year-end level, this critical growth metric would be up 36% over 2025, after being up 48% the prior year.
And building on this, our initial 2027 outlook is for about 130 million in consolidated adjusted EBITDA, nearly double what we earned in 2025, and up another 35% over the midpoint this year. Regardless of exactly where our 27 number lands, we fully anticipate ending 2027 at a much higher annualized run rate due to the customer programs scheduled to launch later in the year. Beyond that, the growth built into our customer agreements together with our pipeline gives us room to do even better over time. though we are watching fuel and food prices closely in the short term. Sitting here today, balance, we are more optimistic about where we'll land than we are concerned. With that, I'll turn the call over to Chris Pledger, our CFO. Chris?.
Thomas Pledger
Thank you, Scott, and good afternoon, everyone. Let me take you through the quarter in more detail, starting with the P&L, moving to cash flow and the balance sheet, and then ending with the refinancing we just completed on October 21st. Consolidated net sales were approximately 300 million in the third quarter, down 15.4% compared to the third quarter of 2025. Most of that decline reflects factors that are important to separate from the underlying operating performance of the business. The largest driver is approximately 26 million in tariff refunds that we pass through or expect to pass through to our customers, which we record as a reduction of net sales rather than as cost. The corresponding refunds we collected from our vendors reduced cost of goods sold, so there's no gross profit impact. Excluding this item, net sales would have been approximately 326 million.
The balance of the decline reflects lower green coffee prices, which pass through to our customers at cost, and the previously discussed single-serve customer loss. These factors should not mask our strong underlying business performance during the quarter, led by double-digit growth in our ready-to-drink extracts platform. Importantly, although consolidated net sales were lower in the third quarter versus the prior year, through the first nine months of this year, consolidated net sales were 915 million, up 8% compared to the first nine months of 2025. Consolidated gross profit was 41.5 million in the third quarter, flat compared to the prior year. And year-to-date gross profit was 125 million, up approximately 11% from the prior year period. Both periods include incremental depreciation associated with our investment in Conway, 3.1 million in the quarter and 11.4 million year to date. We continue to see significant improvement in our operating profitability.
In the third quarter, we generated operating profit of 3.2 million compared to an operating loss of 8.6 million a year ago. Through the first nine months of the year, operating profit was 5 million, compared with an operating loss of 36.7 million in the prior year period, a swing of 41.7 million over the past year, and our net loss narrowed by almost 50% in the quarter to 10 million from 19.1 million. Another important proof point that our model is working is that despite significant growth at Conway, our operating expense base was essentially flat year over year. This is the operating leverage that we've been building towards. The platform was sized for substantially more volume than it carries today, and the overhead required to run it does not scale with that volume. As Conway continues to bring contracted programs online, we expect a significant portion of that incremental gross profit to flow through to EBITDA. All of this translated into record quarterly consolidated adjusted EBITDA of 26.4 million, up approximately 14% year-over-year.
And through the first nine months of 2026, consolidated adjusted EBITDA was 73.7 million, up 58% over the same period last year. Beginning in the third quarter, we no longer add back Conway's subscale operating costs in calculating beverage solutions segment adjusted EBITDA. Conway has reached a scale at which those costs are properly treated as ordinary operating costs. So this quarter's segment result absorbs costs that were excluded from the prior year comparison. Despite this, we still delivered beverage solutions segment adjusted EBITDA of 23.3 million, an increase of approximately 14% compared to the third quarter of 2025. The performance reflects strength across our underlying flavors, extracts, and ingredients capabilities driven by the continued commercialization of Conway and the benefits of our business optimization and expense management efforts. We've also crossed the utilization level where new business flows largely through to EBITDA.
From here, each new program, whether an existing customer ramping or a new customer onboarding, comes in at a higher incremental margin. Our sustainable sourcing and traceability segment generated segment adjusted EBITDA 3.2 million in the third quarter, compared to 5.8 million in the prior year period. The third quarter comparison reflects sales timing within the year. Year-to-date, segment adjusted EBITDA of 11.6 million is up more than 5% year-over-year and consistent with our expectations for the full year. We generated cash flows from operations of 9.9 million and positive free cash flow, which we define as cash from operations less additions to property, plant, and equipment of 1.1 million during the quarter. This marks our second consecutive quarter of positive free cash flow, bringing cumulative free cash flow over the second and third quarters to approximately 21 million. Part of that resulted from working capital timing we expect to reverse, but improved profitability and lower capital expenditures are fundamentally changing our cash flow profile.
To that point, capital expenditures were approximately 8.8 million during the quarter, less than half of the 18.1 million invested in the third quarter of 2025. Year-to-date, our capital expenditures were 22.4 million compared to 79.9 million in the comparable prior year period. We continue to project approximately 30M of capital expenditures for the full year compared to 89M in 2025 and 160M in 2024. This is the structural inflection point. We've discussed for several quarters as Conway has moved from construction into operation. We also continued to deleverage during the quarter, with secured net leverage at September 30th declining to approximately 3.1 times from 3.4 times at the end of the second quarter and 4.6 times a year ago. Put differently, over the last 12 months, we've reduced secured net leverage by approximately one and a half turns. or roughly one-third, driven by a combination of debt reductions and earnings growth.
Over that period, secured net debt declined approximately 59 million, while credit agreement-adjusted EBITDA increased by approximately 17 million. As previously announced on October 21st, we took another important step in strengthening our financial position with the completion of our new 600 million senior secured first lien credit facilities, consisting of 300 million of term loans and 300 million of revolving commitments, and extending our bank maturities to October 2031. The transaction received approximately 737 million of lender commitments, allowing us to upsize the facility from the targeted 500 million at launch to 600 million at close. We're grateful for the support we received from all of our lending partners. When compared to our prior credit agreement, the new facilities meaningfully reduced our required debt service by approximately 17 million in the first year, further supporting free cash flow generation. As part of the refinancing, we repurchased 40 million of the 72 million convertible notes due 2029, paying approximately 21 million in cash and issuing approximately 2.4 million shares. In addition, we extended the maturity of the remaining 32 million of the convertible notes due 2029 to January 20th. 2032, eliminating their February 2029 maturity.
As a consequence of the refinancing and the repurchase of the convertible notes, we do expect that our leverage will temporarily increase by about half a turn in the fourth quarter and another quarter to half turn in the first quarter of next year as we pay out our annual incentive compensation to employees and pass tariff refunds through to our customers. So beginning in the second quarter of next year, we expect will once again see meaningful de-levering. Following the close of the refinancing, we had approximately 270 million of unrestricted cash and undrawn revolver commitments under our new beverage solutions credit facilities. compared with approximately 95 million at September 30. This substantially increased liquidity provides us with greater flexibility to operate the business and manage the balance sheet over time. To conclude, we believe our improved earnings, lower capital intensity, and improved balance sheet as a result of the refinancing materially strengthens our financial flexibility as we enter the next phase of Westrock Coffee's growth.
Operator
that we'd be happy to open the line for questions. Thank you. At this time we will conduct the question and answer session. As a reminder, to ask a question, you will need to press star one one on your telephone and wait for your name to be announced. To withdraw your question, please press star 1-1 again. Please stand by while we compile the Q&A roster. Our first question comes from the line of Eric Des Lauriers of Craig-Hallum Capital Group. Your line is now open.
Perguntas e respostas
Eric Des Lauriers
Great. Thank you for taking my questions, and congrats on the strong quarter and capital raise here. My first question, just kind of focusing on potential use of proceeds with this greater liquidity that you have now. Can you just kind of give us a sense of your strategic priorities here? How should we think about, you know, potential share buybacks, organic investment, M&A, maybe some more paydowns on the balance sheet? Just kind of help us level set how you're thinking about use of proceeds going forward.
Scott Ford
Sure, I think Chris's remarks addressed the short term, you know, over the next two or three quarters, what we've got going out the door. And frankly, beyond that, at this juncture, we are very focused on retaining cash, paying debt down. We want to de-lever the business. We think we have an absolute unbelievable path towards growing an industry-leading business in this space over the next two to three years. And the best way to do that is from a rock-solid balance sheet and not the sketchy one, maybe, that we have been accused of running in times past as we were building from nothing out of our own back pocket. And so I think you would see us be very conservative with the balance sheet deleveraging. Obviously, as I've said on calls before, No business should leave its balance sheet in a position where it can't defend a reasonable stock price for the business.
And this business has not had that capacity in times past. It does now, but frankly, I'd be very surprised if we were so incented as to come out of pocket with money for that this juncture I think we've got a lot of things we can do internally and perhaps externally that don't add to our net leverage position that increase our industry structure position and we think the best way to get to those cards is to continue to delever between now and then.
Eric Des Lauriers
all right that's helpful thank you um and then um two questions as it relates to uh the um EBITDA cadence for 27. One, I think you mentioned, you know, the EBITDA growth will largely be back half, potentially even Q4 weighted. I think you mentioned some contracts that will be ramping towards the end of the year. So just wanted to kind of confirm that. And then also just touch on SG&A. So from a reported basis, looks like that's come down pretty meaningfully for about five or six straight quarters now. I'm just wondering how to think about that going forward and sort of what's been the main driver of that.
Scott Ford
Yes, well, two things on that front. First of all, in the guidance to 27, I believe is what your first question was about, So where we say, rather than be precisely wrong, we're just trying to be generally correct. Plus or minus 130, most of our customers won't finish their allocations until deep in the first quarter for the actual volumes. We have a lot of conversations, but that's a lot of guesswork, because our fiscal year doesn't fall with the same calendar planning year as most of our customers. So that's what most of the back and forth is through this time of year. So we think 130 is plus or minus a good guess right now. And then the point I was trying to make is a number of customers that we have sold in that $60 million pipeline I referenced, they are slated to come on board towards the middle and latter part of next year.
So when we get into late 27, we'll be at a very different annualized run rate than the 130 that we are guessing right now will fall in the fiscal, which our fiscal calendar year. So that's what I was trying to distinguish. What would that be? We're not really sure. think we'll grow something like another 30 to 40% in 28 after 27's number. And I'm trying to get you some understanding of how that falls in 27 so you can understand those numbers.
Thomas Pledger
And then to your SG&A question, if you recall that as the build out of Conway that there were expenses that were, or operating expenses that were added back, a lot of those were captured quarter by quarter in SG&A. As those have rolled off through the add backs and into operating expense, our SG&A comes down. This is the first quarter though, where we don't have any Conway related add-backs. So if you're looking for kind of a level line for SG&A going forward, this quarter would be it. Overall operating expense is flat, which I think is a great proof point to the business that we've built and as we continue to grow, as Scott talked about in 2027, there's not a lot of incremental opex that we need to put on the business in order to be able to produce those volumes, and you should see most of that drop to the bottom line. Awesome. Very helpful answers. I appreciate you taking my question, and congrats again. Hey, thanks a bunch.
Operator
Thank you. Next question comes from the line of Chirag Vora of TAG. Your line is now open.
Sarang Vora
Great, thank you guys for taking the question and great profitability. Great to see the Conway making progress. I know you guys gave guidance for next year, so just thinking in terms of free cash flow, the question before, how should we think about CapEx for next year? I know there are some new production lines that you were thinking of starting given the demand from customers, but you have done a great job. this year in bringing down CapEx. So I'm just curious if you can share a little bit color on how we should think about CapEx for next year. in terms of free cash flow generation. Thank you. Absolutely. Thanks, Sarong.
Thomas Pledger
From a CapEx perspective, I think as we talked about, we've reached an inflection point with Conway. The construction part of Conway is complete and now we're into just operating it. Obviously there are going to be opportunities to deploy capital or deploy CapEx for customers. that want to grow with us, and we firmly expect to do that. We've done that this year within the 30 million of CapEx that we forecast. Next year's going to be 30 to 35 million of CapEx as well. And so we can deliver around the customer commitments that we've made and the opportunities that we have to continue to grow the business and deliver the next year's guidance based on the installed capacity that we have, plus some incremental growth capex in order to be able to meet customer needs. But you're not going to see us go back to a time where, you know, CapEx.
CapEx is $50, $60 million. That's not the business we're in right now. So we're going to execute within those parameters.
Sarang Vora
That's great. I had a second question on the margin profile. I know you talked about SG&A being very muted. So fair to assume that majority of this, we will see a massive gross margin expansion over the next year as Conway goes up, right? Because the mix shifts towards higher higher margin than the ground coffee and single service. Is that the right way to think about the growth trajectory on profitability?.
Thomas Pledger
You definitely should see gross margin go up because there's a mix shift. Conway, as we continue to load on volume, Conway continues to be a larger, contributor to the overall EBITDA business, and that is higher margin business than what we have in most of the base business.
Sarang Vora
That's cool. And just a broader question on Conway, you were ramping up from 40 to 80. What has surprised you the most from a customer request standpoint? Anything that surprised you as you ramped up from a production standpoint? Just curious. you can share feedback from customers or something. Thank you. Thank you for taking the time today.
Scott Ford
to hop on. The greatest surprise from Conway has been twofold. Number one, when they come to Conway, they want to go see everything else we do, and we have had a 70 plus percent multiple product sale to our new customers that are coming in. I mean that's ridiculous. We couldn't have imagined we would have seen a reaction like that to Conway. So one of the reasons that our growth this year has been so strong and frankly our growth over the next two years is likely to be as strong again is because of that multi product portfolio that when people come to Conway they see how easy it is to do business with us and then they say well do you also do cups do you also do roast and ground can you do whole bean then you expand your geographic footprint to cover more of our restaurants in a different part of the country etc etc that's been the biggest surprise this The second one is frankly the ultra-filtered milk, high protein, craze that Conway is built and capable of making and the demand for that and the number of brands coming into that space, the number of products that we have under development right now is the greatest number of individual items by a long shot than we've ever had in the house and that includes when we're were building Conway and first turning it on and so we just continue to get and what about and what about this and can you do this and would you take that and prioritizing that and getting the teams lined up to make sure that our customers have a great product development and commercialization and and then an operational delivery and daily customer follow-up. That's the key to executing a low price, high service, quality product formula, but the appetite for it from new and old customers, frankly, has just been far in excess of what we would have hoped for on our best day. And so the challenge is actually delivering against that and that's where we spend all of our time every day. That's great. Good luck. I'll pass it on.
Operator
Thanks, y'all. This concludes the question and answer session. I will now turn the call back over to Scott Ford, CEO, for closing remarks.
Scott Ford
Well, thank you very much. I'd like to thank all of you for hopping on the call today. Obviously, we were thrilled with the quarter. We're head down trying to close the year and get ready for the new year. We are thrilled with the credit agreement being behind us. It gives us unbelievable flexibility over the next several years, and we will be very, very good stewards of the liquidity that it gives us. And we appreciate your interest in this business and following us today on this call. So y'all have a great afternoon.
Thanks so much.
Operator
Thank you for your participation in today's conference. This does conclude the program. You can now disconnect.
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