Teleconferência de Resultados do 3T 2026 da Live Nation (LYV): Público Supera 60M

A Live Nation Entertainment (LYV) destacou um público recorde, amplo crescimento internacional e um ritmo mais forte na Ticketmaster durante sua teleconferência de resultados do 3T26. A administração também reiterou as expectativas de crescimento do AOI para o ano todo, alertando para os custos pré-operacionais de novos espaços e os efeitos do mix de negócios.

Principais destaques

• O público em shows no 3T superou 60 milhões de pessoas, uma alta de quase 20% em relação ao mesmo período do ano anterior.
• O público internacional cresceu 29%, com América Latina, Europa e Ásia registrando, cada uma, expansão de pelo menos 15%.
• Os shows em estádios responderam por mais da metade do crescimento global de fãs, enquanto setembro foi o mês de maior público em anfiteatros da Live Nation na América do Norte.
• A administração agora espera que o público no acumulado do ano se aproxime de 180 milhões, impulsionado por maior sell-through, menos cancelamentos e volumes mais robustos em estádios.
• A Ticketmaster adicionou mais de 20 milhões de ingressos líquidos de novos clientes no acumulado do ano, principalmente em mercados internacionais.
• A Live Nation reiterou a projeção de crescimento de dois dígitos no AOI da divisão de shows para o ano e elevou a perspectiva da Ticketmaster para um crescimento de AOI na faixa alta de um dígito.

Principais dados financeiros e operacionais

Desempenho operacional e dos negócios

O crescimento nos shows foi geograficamente amplo. Os anfiteatros da América do Norte tiveram bom desempenho, e setembro se tornou o mês de maior público em anfiteatros na história da companhia. O público internacional aumentou 29%, e todas as principais regiões internacionais citadas pela administração registraram expansão de pelo menos 15%.

Os estádios responderam por mais da metade do crescimento global de fãs. Na América do Norte, parte do avanço refletiu o agendamento posterior de eventos, enquanto a Live Nation coordenava a logística em torno da Copa do Mundo. A administração também afirmou que o volume em estádios encerrou o período mais forte do que o inicialmente previsto.

A Ticketmaster se beneficiou diretamente do aumento do público em shows, que respondeu por 95% do seu crescimento. A unidade de negócios também adicionou mais de 20 milhões de ingressos líquidos de novos clientes no acumulado do ano. As grandes vendas de ingressos iniciadas no 3T para Harry Styles, Bruno Mars, Oasis e Metallica impulsionaram as expectativas para 2027.

A Venue Nation deve receber cerca de 75 milhões de fãs no mundo todo em 2026. A administração informou que os espaços operados e de terceiros tiveram contribuições amplamente comparáveis para o crescimento geral de fãs, embora os locais operados gerem lucro e margem maiores por fã. Anfiteatros recém-inaugurados nos EUA, arenas europeias adquiridas, ofertas premium e vendas de patrocínio apresentaram bom desempenho.

Guidance da administração

A administração espera que o público em shows no ano todo se aproxime de 180 milhões. O aumento reflete maiores taxas de sell-through, menores índices de cancelamento e um volume em estádios mais forte do que o antecipado no início do ano.

A Live Nation reiterou sua expectativa de crescimento de dois dígitos no AOI da divisão de shows em 2026. A perspectiva de crescimento do AOI da Ticketmaster para o ano todo foi elevada para a faixa alta de um dígito, sustentada pela demanda por shows, novas adições de clientes e um desempenho esportivo mais forte, compensando a pressão esperada no mercado secundário de ingressos.

A companhia planeja fornecer mais detalhes durante seu Investor Day sobre as inaugurações da Venue Nation, investimentos em espaços, custos pré-operacionais, alocação de capital, financiamento de parceiros e retornos esperados.

Riscos e pontos de atenção

A expansão de espaços para eventos está aumentando os custos pré-operacionais em 2026, e a administração espera que essas despesas continuem crescendo nos próximos dois anos.

O mix de negócios também afeta a rentabilidade. Os eventos em estádios geralmente apresentam preços de ingressos mais altos, mas margens menores, enquanto os fãs presentes em espaços operados pela Live Nation geram margens mais altas do que aqueles em locais de terceiros.

As despesas com publicidade pré-paga tiveram alta de dois dígitos até o 3T. A administração afirmou que as baixas contábeis de fim de ano com marketing vinculado a turnês já à venda para 2027 afetarão os resultados do 4T.

A Ticketmaster havia previsto anteriormente uma pressão sobre o mercado secundário de ingressos diante do aumento da fiscalização. Esse vento contrário não se concretizou no acumulado do ano, já que o desempenho mais forte no segmento esportivo funcionou como compensação.

Destaques da sessão de perguntas e respostas com analistas

Os analistas se concentraram fortemente na rentabilidade da expansão da Venue Nation. A administração enfatizou que os espaços operados oferecem um retorno econômico melhor por fã, mas o mix de estádios e os crescentes custos pré-operacionais devem ser considerados na avaliação do crescimento do AOI.

Em relação à maior projeção de público, a administração atribuiu a revisão a um sell-through mais robusto, menos cancelamentos e um volume em estádios acima do esperado. Esses fatores podem adicionar milhões de fãs em comparação aos planos iniciais.

As dúvidas sobre a conclusão de aquisições de espaços e a parcela de investimentos em capital (Capex) financiada por parceiros foram postergadas para o próximo Investor Day, ocasião em que a administração pretende explicar com mais detalhes a alocação, as fatias de participação societária e os impactos nos retornos.

Transcrição completa da teleconferência de resultados

Transcrição completa da teleconferência de resultados

Comentários da administração

Operator

Good afternoon. My name is John, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to Live Nation's Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Call.

I would now like to turn the call over to Ms. Yong. Thank you, Ms. Yong. You may begin your conference.

Amy Yong

Good afternoon, and welcome to the Live Nation Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Conference Call. Joining us today is our President and CEO, Michael Rapino; and our President and CFO, Joe Berchtold.

We would like to remind you that this afternoon's call will contain certain forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ, including statements related to the company's anticipated financial performance, business prospects, new developments and similar matters. Please refer to Live Nation's SEC filings, including the risk factors and cautionary statements included in the company's most recent filings on Forms 10-K, 10-Q and 8-K for a description of risks and uncertainties that could impact the actual results.

Live Nation will also refer to some non-GAAP measures on this call. In accordance with the SEC Regulation G, Live Nation has provided definitions of these measures and a full reconciliation to the most comparable GAAP measures in our earnings release. The release reconciliation can be found under the Financial Information section on Live Nation's website.

With that, we will now take your questions. Operator?

Operator

[Operator Instructions] And the first question comes from the line of David Karnovsky with JPMorgan.

Perguntas e respostas

David Karnovsky

Joe, I wanted to see if you could unpack the Q3 result a bit. It looks like fan count came in even higher than expected. So can you give some color on where you saw that added growth and how it flowed to concerts and ticketing AOI? And can you also just remind us of any preopening expense growth in the quarter?

Joe Berchtold

Thanks, David. Yes, great quarter for concerts with attendance of over $60 million. I think the first time we've had that level of attendance, up almost 20%. Both North America and international doing well. International, in particular, was up 29% in every one of the regions. So Latin America, Europe, Asia, all up at least 15%. So we're seeing consistently strong performance globally. In North America, we had a very good amphitheater, including September being our largest amphitheater month overall.

And then globally, it was a very big stadium quarter. Stadiums drove over half of the global fan growth, up measurably in both North America and internationally. North America, a chunk of that being the timing that we've talked about before, where the stadium timing this year was a bit later than it was in previous years, just given how we had to manage the logistics around the World Cup. So overall, excellent, and that obviously flowed through to the ticketing business. Ticketing business, 95% of their growth was from concerts. So certainly benefited from the great attendance that we had at our shows.

Operator

And the next question comes from the line of Stephen Laszczyk with Goldman Sachs.

Stephen Laszczyk

Joe and Michael, maybe just digging a bit deeper into the growth at Ticketmaster. It's come in a bit better than expectations over the course of this year. I think you're now calling out high single-digit AOI growth for the full year. Just would be curious if you could talk more about the strength you're seeing play out this year, the durability of those trends and then ultimately, how you would expect to close out the year for Ticketmaster.

Joe Berchtold

Sure. I'll get that started. So first of all, better than expected even in terms of the fan growth in our concert business, which we've now guided towards close to $180 million. So that obviously supports the Ticketmaster business. Ticketmaster has also continued to add a number of clients, particularly internationally with over 20 million net new tickets so far this year. So that continues to perform well. We had flagged a year or so ago that we thought that there was likely to be some headwinds on the secondary side as we really continue to increase the enforcement on the concert secondary, which we expected to reduce that business.

And as we noted, we have some offsets with increased performance on the sports side. So we're not seeing that headwind for the year. So with that, we took up our guidance to now expect high single-digit AOI growth for the year. It's been great year-to-date. Q3 was very strong in part because we had a number of substantial on sales for shows next year, Harry Style, Bruno Mars, Oasis, Metallica, all being substantial on sales in the third quarter. So that's already set us up now with some nice momentum heading into next year.

Operator

And the next question comes from the line of Brandon Ross with LightShed Partners.

Brandon Ross

First, I just wanted to get a clarification or follow-up on David's question and wanted to hone in on the impact of Venue Nation specifically on your concert numbers. There's a lot of moving pieces there. You're acquiring venues, preopening in others, but the O&O fans should be more profitable. How should investors think about how that all nets out at this point in time?

Joe Berchtold

Yes. As you said, Venue Nation is having a great year. We expect to have about 75 million fans attend our venues worldwide. So we're seeing solid growth from that, continued solid growth as well from third-party fans as we're looking at roughly 20 million fan growth overall. So I would say pretty comparable contribution to our overall fan growth from the year. from both operated and non-operated fans. Clearly, the operated fans are higher profitability per fan, higher margin per fan.

When you look at the overall numbers, the couple of pieces you need to take into account with your math are one is the stadium fans because those are the highest priced tickets will tend to be a lower margin. And then preopening costs that we've talked about, which is just as we're ramping up the venue side, these early years this year and for the next couple of years, we're also ramping up preopening costs. So that's -- that all just needs to get put into the math. And as we get into next week in our Investor Day, we'll lay out more for you guys, the ramp of what we expect in terms of the venue fans as well as the investment overall, including the preopening costs over the next few years.

Operator

And the next question comes from the line of Cameron Mansson-Perrone with Morgan Stanley.

Cameron Mansson-Perrone

To follow up on Venue Nation, you've acquired a handful of venues this year. Some of those like Milan, I believe, have closed. But could you give us an update on what's closed and what you're expecting in terms of the timing of acquisition closes across some of these markets like Prague, Paris, Santiago, Copenhagen, for example?

Unknown Executive

I think you all know we have an Investor Day next week. we're trying to get today to anything that you want kind of specific around the quarter. But we're going to take you through a great presentation next week and give you much more detail around Venue Nation, what rolls out, AI impact, all the good things you want to know about the next few years on what we're rolling out to build your model. So we'll see you there next week and give you that detail.

Operator

And the next question comes from the line of Ian Moore with Bernstein Research.

Ian Moore

Just to hone in again on kind of the Venue Nation openings this year in the quarter. You've acquired and obviously opened organically a number of venues. I guess of the ones that are joined this year, still ramping, what's kind of been the biggest, I guess, surprise versus your expectations? And what's driving that? Is it more shows, more spend per fan maybe sponsorship?

Joe Berchtold

I think the main thing that we've seen this year, both of our operated and third party is just the strength of the consumer, right? All year, we've been reading in the press about all the concerns about consumer spending, are they going to keep going to shows? Are they going to keep spending at shows? Will shows close? Will they go on sale well? And we are absolutely seeing continued strong consumer demand globally in all these venues. And you look at some of the amphitheaters we opened here in the U.S., had just about a full slate of shows, performed very well. Premium did well, continue to see strength there, the few arenas we've acquired in Europe, all of them doing well. sponsorship sales on the B2B side continuing to do well. So I wouldn't call out any one of them as being particular, but I would just note the continued strong dynamics on all of the venues.

Operator

And the next question comes from the line of Kutgun Maral with Evercore ISI.

Kutgun Maral

I had a follow-up on concerts where you had a really strong quarter. If I look at the first 9 months of the year, concerts AOI is up about 4%. So your outlook for double-digit growth implies that the fourth quarter loss narrows by at least $30 million or so versus last year, and I imagine it will narrow meaningfully more than that. I guess with fans now approaching $180 million for the year, that implies about 12% fan growth in Q4. Can you help unpack the main drivers of the implied AOI improvement a bit more for the next quarter?

Joe Berchtold

Yes. I think we've said a number of things over the course of the year. I think we got into a pretty good detail over the first couple of quarters explaining what was going on with the results for each of those quarters and how we saw the full year playing out. I think we've been consistent that we expected to see AOI growth for the full year in concerts hitting double digits. And we reiterated that today. So no change in that overall expectation. I laid out earlier some of the puts and takes that we have. Very strong overall fan growth, strong in both venues we operate as well as third-party venues. The margin and per fan economics can get impacted what type of venue it is sometimes, but I think we've given you the pieces there. And then we've also given you the preopening costs.

The last piece that I would note as being an impact is the marketing expense that gets written off for prepaid advertising at the end of the year. We noted here that through the third quarter, that was up double digits. So you can assume the very good news that our fourth quarter gets impacted by prepaid advertising for tours that are on sale and performing well next year. So that's the best problem in the world to have.

Operator

And our final question comes from the line of Steven Cahall with Wells Fargo.

Steven Cahall

So just wanted to understand the upgrade to fan count growth, I think it's about 3% above what you'd guided to before. Is that upside from your expectation that you're all seeing in the second half? Or is it more that as you've gotten visibility into the year, you're more comfortable upgrading that? Just trying to understand how the business is performing versus your expectation as we roll into next year and if you feel like you have incremental momentum? And then just a housekeeping one, how do we think about the partner share of venue CapEx flowing through the cash flow statement in 2026?

Joe Berchtold

So on the upgrade to the expected attendance, I think it's number one thing as the shows are just consistently doing well. So our sell-through rate is higher this year than it was last year. Our cancellation rate is lower. At the start of the year, we probably would have been planning for those to be in line. So for those to outperform at our business, that can account for millions of incremental fans. I think we've ended up stronger on our stadium volume than we thought early in the year, given what we had to manage through with the World Cup here in the U.S., those would be your 2 largest factors that would have driven the increase.

In terms of how we're managing all of the economics, why don't we save that one for Investor Day, so we can go through in more detail and make sure we're answering all the questions on how the capital is being deployed and what pieces of it are ours versus partners. And what the implications that has for IRRs and rates that we're seeing every year.

Operator

Thank you. And that concludes the question-and-answer session, and that also concludes today's teleconference. We thank you for your participation. You may disconnect your lines at this time.