Teleconferência de Resultados do 2T26 da Epsilon Energy (EPSN): Crescimento do Petróleo e Avanço em Parkman

Principais Destaques

• A Epsilon Energy disse que o 2T26 marcou o ponto mínimo de sua produção no ano. A administração espera um crescimento sequencial da produção até o final do ano, impulsionado principalmente pelos volumes de petróleo bruto da Bacia de Powder River.
• O ponto médio da projeção da administração para o ano de 2026 sugere um crescimento anual entre 15% e 20% na produção total e um crescimento de quase 200% nos volumes de petróleo.
• Dois poços de Niobrara colocados em operação em julho alcançaram, cada um, um pico de produção diária superior a 900 barris de petróleo e estão apresentando desempenho acima das expectativas da empresa.
• A perfuração do programa de três poços em Parkman foi concluída cerca de um mês antes do previsto. As completações estão planejadas para o 3T, com expectativa de produção inicial no 4T26.
• A Epsilon reduziu a dívida em US$ 10 milhões durante o primeiro semestre de 2026. A empresa espera usar sua linha de crédito rotativo para financiar parcialmente investimentos maiores, mantendo sua meta de alavancagem de 1,5x EBITDA.
• A administração disse que a correção em seu relatório de resultados afetou apenas a apresentação do lucro líquido ajustado e do LPA ajustado na tabela de resumo, sem nenhum impacto nos resultados GAAP, fluxos de caixa ou nos fundamentos econômicos do negócio.

Principais Dados Financeiros e Operacionais

Desempenho Operacional e dos Negócios

Bacia de Powder River

A expectativa é que a Bacia de Powder River seja a maior contribuidora para o crescimento de curto prazo da Epsilon. A empresa concluiu dois poços laterais de duas milhas em Niobrara adquiridos da Peak, alocando todos os 100 estágios planejados e volumes de areia projetados. Ambos os poços foram colocados em operação em julho e cada um atingiu um pico de produção superior a 900 barris de petróleo por dia.

A Epsilon também acelerou a perfuração de seu programa de três poços em Parkman após garantir a disponibilidade de uma sonda. Todos os três poços atingiram as profundidades planejadas, com completações agendadas para o final do 3T e primeira produção prevista para o 4T. A empresa manteve uma participação operacional superior a 70% após vender parte de sua fatia, que ficava na faixa de meados de 90%.

No Condado de Converse, a construção de uma estrutura de abastecimento e reservatório de água de 1 milhão de barris deve começar no 3T. O projeto revisado dará suporte à futura captação e reciclagem de água produzida, o que a administração espera que reduza os custos de captação e processamento de água.

Bacia Permiana

O primeiro poço de três milhas da Epsilon em Barnett entrou em fase de fluxo de retorno (flowback) em junho. A administração disse que o desempenho está em linha com a curva tipo pré-perfuração, enquanto a equipe de operações relatou que o fluxo de retorno normalizado inicial superou as expectativas.

O poço é o nono perfurado na área. O operador propôs dois poços de compensação em Barnett, com expectativa de início da perfuração mais para o final de 2026 e completação prevista para o 1T27.

Um poço de avaliação em Woodford no qual a Epsilon não participou foi perfurado e tem completação agendada para o final de agosto. A administração afirmou que um resultado bem-sucedido pode expandir o inventário de perfuração associado à sua área além da formação Barnett.

Marcellus

A produção na Pensilvânia foi afetada por reduções planejadas e ajustes de pressão no sistema de escoamento. A administração afirmou que a estratégia visava limitar as vendas durante períodos em que os netbacks na bacia caíssem abaixo de US$ 2 e preservar a produção para períodos de demanda mais forte.

Cinco poços, representando 0,4 poço líquido, foram perfurados, com trabalhos de completação planejados para o segundo semestre de 2026. A primeira produção está agendada para dezembro e é estimada pela administração para adicionar 6,5 milhões de pés cúbicos líquidos por dia. Espera-se que quatro poços aumentem a capacidade inicial do sistema de escoamento de Auburn em aproximadamente 80 a 90 milhões de pés cúbicos por dia.

Guidance da Administração

A Epsilon divulgou projeções de produção para o segundo semestre de 2026 pela primeira vez. A administração espera um crescimento sequencial significativo durante o restante do ano, com o maior aumento no 4T, à medida que os poços de Parkman começarem a contribuir.

Espera-se que os investimentos de capital no terceiro trimestre aumentem materialmente devido ao desenvolvimento de Parkman, perfuração na Bacia Permiana, instalações no Condado de Converse e preparativos para o aumento da atividade no início de 2027. A empresa espera financiar parcialmente esse investimento por meio de sua linha de crédito rotativo.

Para 2027, a administração planeja uma atividade de desenvolvimento maior do que em 2026 nas áreas de Powder River, Bacia Permiana e Marcellus. A divulgação do guidance para o ano todo de 2027 está prevista para o 1T27, antes de a empresa relatar seus resultados do final do exercício de 2026.

Riscos e Pontos de Atenção

• Uma parcela substancial dos investimentos de capital de 2026 não contribuirá para a produção até o 4T ou 2027, aumentando a sensibilidade ao cronograma do projeto.
• A produção de Marcellus continua exposta a reduções programadas, ajustes de pressão no sistema de escoamento, depleção natural e preços fracos do gás na região.
• O cronograma dos novos volumes de Marcellus depende dos parceiros operacionais. A administração disse que seu guidance inclui uma margem de erro para potenciais atrasos.
• A Epsilon espera recorrer à sua linha de crédito rotativo durante a fase de aceleração dos investimentos, embora a administração permaneça comprometida com sua meta de alavancagem de 1,5x EBITDA.
• O crescimento futuro na Bacia Permiana e em Marcellus permanece sujeito aos planos finais de operadores terceiros.

Destaques das Perguntas e Respostas dos Analistas

A administração planeja fornecer projeções anuais de produção no início de cada ano e refiná-las trimestralmente. O guidance para o ano todo de 2027 é esperado no 1T27.

Sobre o hedge, a Epsilon pretende manter a cobertura em aproximadamente 50% dos volumes provados desenvolvidos em produção nos próximos 18 meses. A empresa não planeja atualmente proteção para o gás além dessa meta e espera adicionar hedges à medida que os volumes incrementais de Marcellus se tornarem mais certos.

A administração descreveu a redução de participação operacional como uma ferramenta de gestão de capital, e não como uma estratégia fixa. A Epsilon pode usar reduções futuras de participação para manter os gastos de desenvolvimento dentro de sua meta de alavancagem, mantendo a exposição a projetos de crescimento.

A empresa também está discutindo permutas de áreas de concessão, poços laterais mais extensos e parcerias com operadores maiores da Bacia de Powder River. A administração espera fornecer uma atualização mais definitiva no próximo trimestre, mas não divulgou acordos específicos.

Transcrição Completa da Teleconferência de Resultados

Transcrição completa da teleconferência de resultados

Comentários da administração

Operator

Thank you. Good day and welcome to the Epsilon Energy Second Quarter 2026 Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to your President and CEO, Jason Stabell. Please go ahead.

Jason Stabell

Good morning. Before we begin our prepared remarks, we would like to address the press release correction issued yesterday. The correction was limited to the presentation of adjusted net income and adjusted EPS in the summary table. The reconciliation later in the release reflected the correct treatment. After identifying the inconsistency, we promptly updated the release. There was no impact to our reported GAAP results, cash flows, or the underlying economics of the business. Thank you, Operator.

I'll now turn the call over to Andrew Williamson, our CFO.

J. Williamson

Thank you, Operator. And on behalf of the management team, I would like to welcome all of you to today's conference call to review Epsilon's Second Quarter 2026 Financial and Operational Results. Before we begin, I would like to remind you that our comments may include forward-looking statements. It should be noted that a variety of factors could cause Epsilon's actual results to differ materially from the anticipated results or expectations expressed in these forward-looking statements.

Today's call may also contain certain non-GAAP financial measures. Please refer to the earnings release that we issued yesterday for disclosures on forward-looking statements and reconciliations of non-GAAP measures. With that, I would like to turn the call over to Jason Stabell, our Chief Executive Officer.

Jason Stabell

Thank you, Andrew, and good morning, everyone. Joining me today are Andrew Williamson, our CFO, and Henry Clanton, our COO. We will be available for questions following our prepared remarks. Our message this quarter remains consistent with what we communicated in May. We are focused on execution, and I am pleased to report that our major operational initiatives have progressed on schedule and on budget. We have started to execute our development plan as expected and anticipate meaningful quarter-over-quarter production growth through the remainder of 2026, primarily driven by crude volumes in the Powder River Basin.

As a result of the progress we have made across the portfolio, for the first time, we are providing production guidance for the second half of 2026. The anticipated increase in volumes reflects the commencement of production from several high-return oil projects that have either recently been brought online or are expected to begin contributing over the coming months. We refer you to a presentation posted to our website this morning for additional details on our guidance.

In the Powder River Basin, execution on our acquired operated assets has been particularly strong. Our 2 Niobrara DUC completions were completed during the quarter and brought online in July. Early production results have exceeded our type curve expectations. In addition, drilling operations on our 3-well Parkman pad were completed approximately 1 month ahead of plan. These high working interest Parkman wells are now on track to begin production during the fourth quarter and represent the biggest contributor to our anticipated growth profile.

In the Permian Basin, our first 3-mile Barnett well was placed on flowback during June and is currently performing in line with our pre-drill type curve. The successful execution of this well marks another important milestone in the development of the project and provides further confidence in the operator's transition to longer lateral development. Looking ahead, the operator has informed us that 2 additional Barnett wells are expected to be drilled during the second half of 2026, with completion scheduled for the first quarter of 2027.

In addition, the Woodford appraisal well, in which Epsilon elected not to participate, has now been drilled and is scheduled for completion later this month. A successful result could meaningfully expand the future drilling inventory associated with our acreage position and provide additional development opportunities beyond the Barnett formation. In Pennsylvania, production from our Marcellus assets was impacted during the quarter by planned temporary curtailments associated with operating pressure adjustments on our gathering system, will make room on the system for newly drilled wells scheduled to turn in line late in the fourth quarter of this year.

From an organizational standpoint, we have largely completed the transition period associated with the Peak acquisition. The integration of personnel, systems, and field operations has progressed well, and I want to thank our employees for their efforts throughout this process. The successful integration of the acquired assets has allowed our team to remain focused on execution while continuing to identify opportunities to improve operational performance and efficiencies.

Overall, we are accomplishing what we set out to do at the start of the year. Our development program is advancing as planned, our balance sheet remains strong, and we expect to deliver meaningful quarter-over-quarter production growth through the remainder of 2026, as reflected in the guidance provided today. Andrew and Henry will provide additional detail on our major operational initiatives, production outlook, and financial position.

Andrew, I'll turn it over to you.

J. Williamson

Thanks, Jason. On the recent results, the second quarter was a trough for us this year on production, as new development in the Powder River Basin and Permian started to contribute late in the quarter. As Jason mentioned, we anticipate growth from here as Q2 activity is reflected in Q3, and escalates through year-end and into 2027 with continued activity across the portfolio. The biggest impact this year will come in the fourth quarter with our first Parkman volumes in the Powder River Basin. The midpoint of full-year 2026 guidance shows high teens year-over-year growth in total production and almost 200% year-over-year growth in oil volumes.

On the capital side, also as shown in our guidance figures, we plan to spend meaningfully more in the third quarter than we have in past quarters, with the high-interest Parkman development already mentioned, together with drilling activity in the Permian, and facilities build-out in one of our core areas in Converse County, Wyoming, and preparation for a ramp and development activity there early next year. Well over half of our full year capital spending will not contribute to results until the fourth quarter, with over a third showing up in results starting next year, including the facilities build-out I mentioned.

We made several moves during the second quarter in preparation for these investments, including the non-core Marcellus overriding royalty interest sale and an interest sell-down in this quarter's Parkman development, which still leaves us with over 70% interest in the project. The previously disclosed potential sale of our Durango office building did not close, but we expect to reevaluate a potential sale later this year. Over the first half of the year, we paid down our debt balance by $10 million. We expect to utilize the revolver to partially fund the investment ramp starting this quarter. That said, we're very comfortable we can execute our plans while staying within our target leverage level of 1.5x EBITDA.

Looking ahead to next year, we're planning to continue to invest for growth, with development activity in excess of 2026 expected across all 3 of our primary areas. The biggest component will be the Powder River Basin, with additional operated development targeting the Parkman. We are also in discussions with some of the larger operators in the basin to pull forward some of our shale inventory there in partnerships, allowing us to develop cost-efficiently. The Permian and Marcellus assets are expected to exhibit growth next year as well, subject to the final plans of our operating partners.

Now to Henry.

Henry Clanton

Thank you, Andrew, and good morning to everyone. Today I'd like to begin by highlighting some recent operations on our Powder River Basin assets. The company has successfully stimulated both of the 2-mile Niobrara laterals in Campbell County, Wyoming, we acquired from Peak. The frac went as planned with all design sand placed and the 100 stages completed. The wells were flowed back under a managed pressure procedure to technically guide the choke management decisions. Both wells continue to flow up casing on a reduced choke and are performing above expectation, with peak daily rates achieved in excess of 900 barrels of oil a day from each well.

Different from the timing provided in the prior earnings call, we were able to accelerate the drilling of our 3-well Parkman program in July. This being our first drilling operation in the basin, I'm pleased to report that all 3 wells were successfully drilled to their planned depths. The completions are scheduled for later this quarter. As we've done with the Niobrara wells, all production facility work that could be built out prior to placing the wells on production has been completed. Initial production is expected in the fourth quarter.

In Converse County, the 1 million barrel [ lined ] water supply and impoundment facility has finalized with contractor bids under evaluation. Construction is expected to begin in Q3. The original design of the impoundment ponds have been modified to allow for intake and recycling of produced water in the future, which will reduce the total water sourcing and processing costs moving forward. In follow-up to the production enhancement initiatives, the ops team has replaced 16 compression units to date, removing $65,000 a month of operating expenses moving forward. There are several more units to be downsized before the year end when total savings will exceed $100,000 a month. As expected, there have been no decreases to existing production as a result of the compressor downsizing program.

Lots going on in our Permian Basin Barnett project in Ector County. Drill out of the recent 3-mile Barnett lateral went as expected and the well has been placed on production. This is the 9th well drilled on the acreage and the early flowback period has exceeded the normalized type curve expectations and is exhibiting excellent productivity consistent with the existing wells on the acreage. This week we have received well proposals from the operator for 2 offsets to this lateral. These wells have been moved up in the drilling schedule by the operator with plans to spud them later this month.

Finally, the Woodford appraisal test mentioned on the last earnings call has been drilled with completion scheduled for later this month as well. In the Marcellus, as reported last quarter, the operators completed the drilling of a scheduled 5 wells, 0.4 net. Completion operations are planned for the second half of this year. First production from this development is scheduled in December and forecasted to add 6.5 million cubic foot a day net. 4 of the new drills will gather through the Auburn system and are forecasted to increase throughput in the midstream system by approximately 80 to 90 million cubic foot a day upon initial completion.

Now I'll turn it back to Jason.

Jason Stabell

Thanks, guys. Operator, we can now open the lines for questions.

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Your first question today will come from Anthony Perala with Punch & Associates. Please go ahead.

Perguntas e respostas

Anthony Perala

Nice to see the first guidance you've been able to give for production for this year speaks to the shifting the business from non-op to now having the operating piece. What's the best way to think about the approach to guidance going forward into 2027 and beyond?

J. Williamson

Yes, thanks, Anthony. I think the next piece that we'll come out with will be full year '27. And we'll do that, targeting to do that in the first quarter of next year before we post year-end '26 results.

Anthony Perala

Okay, sounds good. So targeting it to be annually, kind of at the beginning of every year.

J. Williamson

That's right, and refined throughout the year with quarters.

Anthony Perala

Okay. A couple questions on the gas business in Pennsylvania. Any more details you could give on the maintenance activities there would be helpful. And then, I'm not sure if you have it available, but, kind of, how you delineate the falloff in production quarter-over-quarter? How much was attributable to the maintenance activities and how much was just your typical decline rates that we would have seen otherwise?

Jason Stabell

Yes, thanks for that question. This is Jason. If you look at our business in Appalachia, our operator has done a really good job in our view, and we've been in agreement with the approach that in the shoulder seasons or periods where we have prolonged pricing netbacks in Appalachia that are sub-$2, we've had curtailments. And the flip side of that, you'll notice in the first quarter we had a monster gas production cash flow quarter because we worked at the opposite, maximize production when we had realized prices of almost $5.50 versus the $1.80 in the second quarter.

So we, kind of, look at it on an annual basis over time. We're trying to maximize production with the operator in high demand, in-basin seasons, and then curtailing as appropriate when we think we're selling gas at depressed prices that are not sustained. As far as delineating, because the way that these volumes were curtailed was a increase in the operating pressure of our gathering line, it's hard to attribute an exact breakdown between what's natural depletion versus what's attributable to that pressure build back on the wells. The farther we are from where that pressure is applied, the more of an impact there is.

Roughly, we think we've been in depletion mode in PA since the wells were brought online last year in the first quarter and will be in depletion mode until the fourth quarter of this year when we start to see those incremental volumes that we addressed earlier in the report today.

Anthony Perala

Okay, that's helpful. And any updates from the operator? It stayed consistent on bringing those wells on in Q4. I guess I'd pair the other piece of the question is, I've seen a lot about just the, kind, of super El Niño and what that does for winter weather and it's biased warmer based on prior analog years when you've seen that type of weather pattern. Any thoughts around the operator potentially pushing the tails out of Q4? And any thoughts on maybe looking to add more hedges given, kind of, forecast for a warmer winter here?

Jason Stabell

I'll let Andrew address the hedging question. We think we've built appropriate, in our guidance, we've, kind of, built appropriate margin of error to adjust for any slide that the operator has on those volumes. And on the hedging?

J. Williamson

Yes, Anthony, we target -- in terms of volume coverage, as I've mentioned in previous calls, we target 50% PDP hedged over the next 18 months. It also coincides with the hedge covenant on our credit facility. So what we've done on gas is use collars to put that production on.

With oil, as I've mentioned before, we took a big hedge book from Peak in the deal in the fourth quarter of last year. The majority of the incremental volumes we have on between now and the end of the year and into '27 as well, or a big chunk of them are our oil volumes, and so we've strategically started to add there starting in the fourth quarter of this year on crude. On the gas, I think we'll just continue to keep coverage as we've had it at that 50% of PDP. So we'll add again once we have some certainty on those incremental volumes coming on that we just talked about in the Marcellus late this year. So to answer your question directly, no plans to put protection on in excess of, kind of, the mandate that we have on 50% coverage.

Anthony Perala

Okay, that's great. That's very helpful color. Then shifting over to the Powder. Nice realization on the working interest sell-down. Just curious on what the market's like for that when you were marketing it and if you could give, kind of, a peek maybe into 2027 what those 6 wells, what your, kind of, net interest is right now and if you may look to tap that market again?

Jason Stabell

As a non-op player, we've been very aware of the AFE wellbore market. It's pretty active across, particularly in the Permian, but there is activity as well in the Rockies, in the Marcellus. So when we -- on that Parkman sell-down, I mean, there were a couple of drivers on that. And Andrew can add some additional color. One, we felt like if we could get a nice premium to our AFE, it really juices our cash-on-cash returns. And as Henry mentioned, these were our first 3 wells in the basin, we -- drilling operation wise, so really we felt okay taking our working interest down from a mid-90s into the low 70s here as a risk mitigant as well. Going forward, we have high working interest Parkman wells. We may consider sell-downs, but I think we feel pretty good about the well design and the performance. So I feel good on that.

J. Williamson

Yes. I'd add to that. Anthony, it's a tool to use to rightsize the capital program. So all of the things that we're planning on doing in the medium term, Powder, Parkman, Barnett development in the Permian, and then continued activity in the Marcellus, those are highly coveted in that market and so we know we can go there to rightsize that capital program and that's to stay within our leverage target that we discussed and still drive growth with that rightsized program, if that makes sense. So it's just a tool that we use. So no definitive plans there to sell down next year to answer your question directly, but it's a pretty quick cycle action if we want to go that route.

Anthony Perala

Yes, that makes a lot of sense. That's great. And then it seems like things were brought forward about a month, I think initially it was December for first production. Now you're assuming, kind of, 60 days that fall into 2026. Was it more a timing thing? Was it efficiency on the drill side? Just any details on that would be helpful.

Jason Stabell

Yes, I may flip this one to Henry. Henry, you want to take that one?

Henry Clanton

Yes, so related to the 3-well Parkman program in Wyoming, we had an opportunity to capture some rig availability. We had all of our permits in place. We had locations built, got our personnel ready, and so we acted upon it.

Anthony Perala

That's great. What is -- what's the market like for availability right now and looking into 2027? Yes, just that.

Henry Clanton

Yes, so in Wyoming, sorry, this is Tim. In Wyoming, yes, from a rig perspective, the rig count in the 2 counties that we're active in, Campbell and Converse, remain in about the 13 rigs running range. 9 of those are focused on the shales, Niobrara and Mowry, the other 4 are the sandstones. And so we're seeing stable activity in our area of the Powder River at this point.

Anthony Perala

And then the last one, I think, Henry, you had mentioned in your prepared remarks, just that you are having active conversations with other operators to maybe pull forward some development in a cost-effective nature, I think is the phrase that you used. Any more detail around that would be helpful just to frame up what that program could look like over the next couple of years.

Jason Stabell

Yes, Anthony, I'll take that one. This is Jason. We intimated on the call last time that we have a large acreage position in the Powder. There are opportunities for swaps and trades and partnerships. So we've had a number of inbounds about that. We're -- I'd say we're farther along in a couple of those discussions, but at this point, not in a position to really provide details, but I'd expect over the next quarter we're going to have something more definitive to provide to you guys.

But essentially this would be areas where we can either swap acreage to extend lateral lengths and/or participate alongside scaled operators and some of the other resource plays in the basin where they have existing infrastructure that's going to allow us to participate at a enhanced cost structure. So more to come on that, but I think that's been -- that's kind of gravy from what our base evaluation was on this Powder asset, because as you know, we've stressed our focus is going to be on the Parkman. But there are some nice opportunities that are also going to be available to us in the shale, the Niobrara in particular, going forward.

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Showing no further questions. This will conclude our question-and-answer session. At this time, I'd like to turn the conference back over to Jason Stabell for any closing remarks.

Jason Stabell

Thank you, Operator. I want to thank everyone for joining us today, and as always, if you have additional questions or comments, please reach out to us. I appreciate your support. Have a great day.

Operator

The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation, and you may now disconnect your lines.