Trump's "TACO Tuesday" Leaves the US and Iran Still Mired in Quandary

US President Donald Trump has two weeks to figure out whether he’s untangled the knot he created in Iran, or just pulled it tighter.

Trump’s announcement Tuesday that he was accepting a proposal for a two-week ceasefire in Iran was met by relief in global capitals and jubilation in financial markets. Worries are quelled — for now — that he’d push forward with attacks on civilian infrastructure and plunge the region further into conflict with a bombing campaign Trump has likened to returning Iran to the “stone ages.”

But amid celebrations of another “TACO Tuesday” from a president known for pulling back from the brink was the looming realization that the same core challenges remain. Among the to-be-determined quandaries is whether the Strait of Hormuz is effectively open to oil tanker traffic after vague indications Iran would permit more shipping through the waterway.

Iran has shown little willingness to accept sweeping US demands that would dismantle the remaining regime or see the country follow Venezuela’s lead in elevating US-friendly leaders. Nor did Tehran commit publicly to giving in to Trump's demands that it permanently eliminate its nuclear program or retire its ballistic missile arsenal — after the US president issued threats to wipe out Iranian civilization that may have amounted to war crimes if he followed through.

Meanwhile, Trump confirmed a ten-point Iranian proposal would serve as the basis for future negotiations. Tehran has previously called for the lifting of sanctions and compensation for war damages. That could mean imposing new fees on ships traversing the Strait of Hormuz, with increased shipping costs and energy prices here to stay.

Ultimately, falling short of those goals may have to be acceptable for a US president who was under clear political and economic pressure to find an off-ramp.

“Zero surprise that Trump deeply wants to find a way to kick the can again,” said Ian Bremmer, founder of the Eurasia Group.

Administration aides sought to project a sense of mystery ahead of the Tuesday 8 p.m. deadline, in part because the president instructed his advisers to let the deadline loom and not provide any hints about what he might do, according to a senior administration official speaking on the condition of anonymity. The US also stepped up attacks against Iran’s military — including its major oil export hub of Kharg Island — in a bid to increase American leverage in those discussions and demonstrate the military’s capabilities, the official said.

Vice President JD Vance played a central role on Tuesday, despite being in Hungary to meet with Viktor Orbán, according to a White House official. At one point, Vance had Trump on speaker phone at an Orbán rally, and the official said the vice president also privately spoke directly with a Pakistan official acting as a mediator. Trump spent Tuesday conferring with top US national security officials, Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and ultimately spoke with a Pakistani field marshal to sign off on the ceasefire plan, the official added.

The West Wing was also buzzing over the publication of a report that revealed deep skepticism among top Trump administration officials before the war about the Israeli belief that strikes could spur a popular uprising within Iran and installation of a new, secular government. It also revealed the extent of Vance’s initial opposition to the strikes and private concerns among other senior aides.

Against that backdrop, much of Tuesday was dominated by allies from across Trump’s coalition warning him not to follow through on a genocidal threat to end Persian civilization. As conservative podcast hosts openly debated whether the Cabinet should seek to remove Trump from office, even loyal Republicans on Capitol Hill said his threats to target power and desalination plants went too far. Trump's Republican party won a special election in Georgia Tuesday, but by a much smaller margin than before in the typically safe district — a potential warning sign of voter dismay.

The economic intensity was mounting as well. West Texas Intermediate crude had gained almost 70% since the conflict started at the end of February, pushing consumer prices at the pump higher than $4 a gallon for the first time in years.

The 11% decline in the hour after Trump’s announcement underscored pent-up anxiety about his plans. The S&P 500 Index has fallen some 5.2% from its all-time high and recently marked its worst quarter since 2022.

Trump’s decision was a last-minute one. The president wasn’t fully briefed about Pakistan’s proposal until late Tuesday afternoon, around two hours before his Truth Social post appeared announcing the ceasefire. It was up to the president alone to determine whether the offer met his terms, the US official said.

Unknown Details

Still, even as the president claimed in his announcement that he had brought “this Longterm problem close to resolution,” there was little public indication of actual progress toward quelling a military and economic headache that has wreaked havoc on his political standing.

“It is a relief that Trump took an off-ramp tonight,” wrote Jennifer Kavanagh, the director of military analysis at Defense Priorities, a libertarian think tank. “But if he was going to back down, he did so in the worst way. Raising the stakes so high beforehand, he maximized the damage to his credibility & global perceptions of U.S. power. This is a clear strategic defeat for the U.S.”

In the hours following Trump’s announcement, White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt urged caution over reports of in-person talks, saying that discussions wouldn’t be finalized until announced by Trump.

Meanwhile, the Iranian proposal calls for the withdrawal of US combat forces from bases and military deployment points in the region and the release of frozen Iranian assets, among other aims, according to a report from Al Jazeera. The likelihood that the US — or Israel — would accept such proposals appear far-fetched, at best.

And while Washington has largely rolled its eyes at Iran’s public posturing throughout the conflict — insisting Tehran is far more accommodating and willing to negotiate behind the scenes — the disparity underscored the deep divisions and suspicions Trump now must navigate.

Jonathan Panikoff, director of the Scowcroft Middle East Security Initiative at the Atlantic Council’s Middle East Program, said a permanent resolution would require sorting the future of Iran’s nuclear and missile programs, buried highly enriched uranium, and permanent freedom of navigation issues.

“The president’s decision to accept a two-week ceasefire, assuming Iran opens the Strait, allows the president the off-ramp he was looking for and to be able to claim a temporary victory,” he said.

Trump told the AFP in an interview shortly after the ceasefire announcement that Iran’s uranium supply will be “perfectly taken care of,” declining to specify how, while also touting the deal as a “total and complete victory” for the US.

Energy Off-Ramp

Trump has shown throughout his public life that he does not always appeared compelled to reconcile previous objectives with reality on the ground, and has already laid the groundwork to pull back from the conflict even with some key issues unresolved.

Trump has a history of backing down from his most aggressive policies and threats, including a famous climb-down a year ago when he provided relief from global tariffs just a few days after putting them into effect following a tumble in financial markets.

The administration may be banking on voters’ short memories, and the healing of an economy that’s been rocked by the conflict, as well as the Iranian retaliation that Trump himself has conceded he did not anticipate.

Still, the White House will face hard questions if they’re unable to produce an ultimate deal that comes close to the president’s terms.

“Trump set out with, very broadly speaking, maximalist aims here about destroying a nuclear program and affecting regime change, neither of which happened,” said Jon Hoffman, a research fellow in defense and foreign policy at the Cato Institute.

Senator Chris Murphy, a Connecticut Democrat, said that a deal solidifying Iranian control of the Hormuz Strait would be “cataclysmic for the world.”

“It just doesn’t sound like there’s actually an agreement because what Trump is saying is totally different than what the Iranians are saying, but if Iran has the Strait permanently now, then what, what an error, what a miscalculation this entire endeavor was,” Murphy said in an interview with CNN.

For the US, one irony is that five weeks of fighting has arguably left Tehran with even greater leverage over the global economy. During the conflict, Iran has asserted control over the Strait of Hormuz — all but shutting down passage for anyone Tehran views as hostile — and it’s now pursuing a plan to charge tolls on the tankers that cross through.

“It’s very unlikely that Iran is going to relinquish its newfound control or assertion of control over the Strait,” said Clayton Seigle, a senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington.

Kevin Book, managing director at Washington-based ClearView Energy Partners, said the pause was likely to be read by markets as significant because it includes a promise to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

At the same time, it’s hard to see a significant softening of oil prices any time soon.

“The low end of the range is back toward $100 a barrel,” Book said. Had Trump carried through on threatened strikes — and Iran retaliated — the world could be reckoning with “the sky’s the limit” prices, he added.

GOP Offsides

Trump will also need to repair fissures within his own party that emerged on both sides of the issue Tuesday.

After the president’s threat before the ceasefire that a “whole civilization will die tonight”, Representative Nathaniel Moran, a Texas lawmaker who had Trump’s endorsement, expressed alarm in a social media post that the US was straying from a national defense “consistent with the principles that have long guided America.”

Senator Ron Johnson, a Wisconsin Republican, said a strike on civilian infrastructure would have been “a huge mistake.”

“I mean, he loses me if he attacks civilian targets. Whatever we do has to be within the laws of warfare,” Johnson said in an interview with The Wall Street Journal.

“I hope and pray that President Trump is just using this as bluster,” Johnson said Monday to podcaster John Solomon. “We are not at war with the Iranian people. We are trying to liberate them.”

Former Trump allies including Tucker Carlson, former Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene, and former White House official Anthony Scaramucci were among the voices calling for Trump’s removal from office over his threat.

Following his deescalation, conservative influencer Laura Loomer and Senator Lindsey Graham, who have been among the chief cheerleaders for Trump’s intervention, signaled concern over the ceasefire agreement.

“I don’t know why people are acting like this is a win,” Loomer posted on social media. “The Muslims, Woke Reich and Trump haters are using this ‘negotiation’ to attack President Trump while they praise Allies of Tucker Carlson and call for the 25th Amendment to be used against President Trump.”

The South Carolina Republican senator said that Americans “must remember that the Strait of Hormuz was attacked by Iran after the start of the war, destroying freedom of navigation.”

“Going forward, it is imperative Iran is not rewarded for this hostile act against the world,” Graham wrote in a social media post. He added that the US must secure “every ounce” of the highly enriched uranium in the country.

“Time will tell,” the senator said.