FACTBOX-What to expect in 2026: Brokerage forecasts for S&P 500, global GDP
Mar 25 (Reuters) - Top brokerages expect the benchmark S&P 500 index .SPX to extend its rally in 2026, even as near-term pressure from the Middle East conflict disrupts global energy flows and revives worries about inflation and the monetary policy outlook.
Strategists at major investment banks expect momentum in artificial intelligence and strong corporate earnings to offset the conflict's short-term economic impact. However, they warned that persistently higher oil prices could increase recession risks.
Since the war with Iran began, the S&P 500 has fallen about 6%, as surging oil prices and geopolitical uncertainty have weighed on risk assets and prompted investors to pull back from equities toward safe-haven assets.
Following are forecasts from some top brokerages on economic growth and the performance of U.S. stocks in 2026:
Forecasts for stocks:
Brokerage | 2026 S&P 500 index target |
BofA Global Research | 7,100 |
J.P.Morgan | 7,200 |
Societe Generale | 7,300 |
UBS Global Research | 7,500 |
Jefferies | 7,500 |
HSBC | 7,500 |
Canaccord Genuity | 7,500 |
BNP Paribas | 7,500 |
Goldman Sachs | 7,600 |
Barclays | 7,650 |
Citigroup | 7,700 |
UBS Global Wealth Management | 7,700 |
Evercore ISI | 7,750 |
Morgan Stanley | 7,800 |
Seaport Research Partners | 7,800 |
Deutsche Bank | 8,000 |
Oppenheimer Asset Management | 8,100 |
Wells Fargo Investment Institute | 7,400-7,600 |
Real GDP Growth:
Brokerage | GLOBAL | U.S. | EURO AREA | UK |
Citigroup | 2.7% | 2.3% | 0.9% | 0.8% |
Goldman Sachs | 2.4% | 2.4% | 0.8% | 0.5% |
Morgan Stanley | 3.3% | 2.3% | 1.0% | 0.9% |
Barclays | 3.1% | 2.6% | 0.8% | 0.7% |
Wells Fargo | 3.0% | 2.5% | 1.3% | 1.2% |
UBS Global Wealth Management | 3.1% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 1.1% |
Deutsche Bank | 3.3% | 2.5% | 0.5% | 1.3% |
HSBC | 2.5% | 2.1% | 0.7% | 0.8% |
J.P.Morgan | 2.6% | 2.3% | 1.1% | 0.5% |
BofA Global Research | 3.3% | 2.7% | 1.2% | 1.2% |
UBS Global Research | 3.1% | 1.7% | 1.3% | 1.1% |
UBS Global Research and UBS Global Wealth Management are distinct, independent divisions in UBS Group
Wells Fargo Investment Institute is a wholly owned subsidiary of Wells Fargo Bank
Brokerages' 2026 forecast for S&P 500 index target
