NatWest Group PLC Stock Moved Up by 4.11% on Feb 17: What Signal Does It Send?

NatWest Group (NWG) experienced significant intraday volatility, concluding with an upward price change, primarily influenced by a re-evaluation of its recent strong financial performance and strategic announcements. The company recently disclosed full-year and fourth-quarter 2025 earnings that surpassed analyst expectations, reporting higher pre-tax profits and total income. Alongside these robust results, NatWest provided encouraging guidance for 2026, forecasting substantial total income and an improved Return on Tangible Equity. The company also announced a notable increase in its total dividend for 2025 and outlined plans for a significant share buyback scheme.

Earlier in the week, the stock faced downward pressure following the announcement of its £2.7 billion acquisition of wealth manager Evelyn Partners. While this strategic move aims to expand NatWest's presence in wealth management and diversify revenue streams, initial investor concerns regarding the valuation of the deal contributed to a decline in share price. However, the positive financial results and forward-looking guidance appear to have begun outweighing these acquisition-related worries.

The positive intraday movement suggests that the market is increasingly appreciating the underlying strength of NatWest's core business performance and its commitment to returning capital to shareholders through dividends and the recently commenced share buyback program. Analyst sentiment, which has generally maintained a "Moderate Buy" consensus and seen positive price target adjustments from several firms, likely also contributed to renewed investor confidence. This combination of strong fundamentals, positive future outlook, and active capital management appears to be driving the upward price action.

Technically, NatWest Group PLC (NWG) shows a MACD (12,26,9) value of [0.08], indicating a neutral signal. The RSI at 34.43 suggests neutral condition and the Williams %R at -85.88 suggests oversold condition. Please monitor closely.

NatWest Group PLC (NWG) is in the Banking & Investment Services industry. Its latest annual revenue is 21.81B, ranking 26 in the industry. The net profit is 7.22B, ranking 15 in the industry. Company Profile

Over the past month, multiple analysts have rated the company as STRONG BUY, with an average price target of 20.63, a high of 20.63, and a low of 20.63.

Company Specific Risks:

• The £2.7 billion acquisition of Evelyn Partners has led to investor concerns regarding a potential overpayment and is expected to reduce NatWest Group's CET1 ratio by approximately 130 basis points, creating execution risk reliant on synergy delivery and regulatory approval.
• Despite reporting strong 2025 pretax operating profits and upwardly revised return on tangible equity targets, the market's response to NatWest's recent full-year results was notably downbeat, with shares experiencing a decline, indicating underlying investor skepticism that overshadows positive financial performance.
• Analysts and investors express concerns that anticipated falling interest rates in 2026 could lead to compression of net interest margins, a crucial revenue driver for the banking sector, thus posing a financial threat to NatWest's future profitability.