REFILE-MORNING BID AMERICAS-Sleepy 'uber-bulls'

By Mike Dolan

Feb 17 -

What matters in U.S. and global markets today

By Mike Dolan, Editor-At-Large, Finance and Markets

By the standards of the year so far, the market-moving news flow has slowed to a trickle, with world markets subdued as Wall Street returns from its three-day weekend.

Meantime, geopolitical attention shifts to Geneva today as the U.S. and Iran continue nuclear talks.

I’ll get into that and more below.

But first, check out my latest column on the trade-offs of a 'global euro' for European policymakers.

And listen to the latest episode of the Morning Bid daily podcast. Subscribe to hear Reuters journalists discuss the biggest news in markets and finance seven days a week.

SLEEPY 'UBER-BULLS'

As U.S. markets reopen on Tuesday, stock futures were slightly in the red ahead of the bell, with traders perhaps still wary of the wild AI-related swings in various parts of the tech sector last week.

Despite that, the broader mood remains upbeat. Bank of America’s monthly global fund manager survey for February continues to suggest investor sentiment is “uber-bullish” on the economy and earnings for the year - albeit with red flags still flying about possible overspending on AI infrastructure.

Elsewhere, global stocks were steady. In Asia, the mood was muted in holiday-thinned trading, with Japan's Nikkei slipping after yesterday's lower-than-expected GDP print. Those figures showed the Japanese economy grew at an annualised 0.2% in the fourth quarter, well below a forecast 1.6% gain.

That weighed on the yen on Monday, with the currency easing 0.4% against the dollar after last week’s almost 3% rise, before reversing its losses on Tuesday.

The U.S. calendar for Tuesday is thin, with the New York Fed's manufacturing survey and NAHB Housing Index the main data releases. U.S. Treasuries are still basking in the glow of the relatively benign headline CPI inflation readout from Friday.

Later in the week, investors may get some further clues on the Fed's policy path from Wednesday's FOMC minutes and Friday's Q4 GDP figures, while inflation figures from Canada, the UK and Japan will help flesh out the global picture.

In the UK, another rise in unemployment to 5.2% - the highest level in over ten years, not including the pandemic - has excited speculation of another Bank of England interest rate cut next month. Money markets are pricing in an 80% chance of a further move.

The pound fell back against the euro and dollar, while the FTSE 100 pushed higher. Two-year gilt yields fell to 18-month lows.

Amid the general quiet on Tuesday, geopolitics rumbled in the background as U.S.-Iran nuclear negotiations resumed. Oil and gold prices ticked down slightly as the talks got underway in Geneva. President Trump said on Monday he believes Iran wants to make a deal.

Chart of the day

U.S. retail giant Walmart, which reports updated earnings figures this week, joined the trillion-dollar club of company valuations this year. It is now the 12th most valuable publicly listed company in the world.

Today's events to watch

U.S. New York Fed business surveys for February (8:30 AM EST), NAHB Housing Market Index (10:00 AM EST)

Canada January CPI (8:30 AM EST), Japan January trade balance (6:50 PM EST)

Fed Governor Michael Barr and San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly both speak

U.S. corporate earnings: Medtronic, Palo Alto Networks

Want to receive the Morning Bid in your inbox every weekday morning? Sign up for the newsletter here. You can find ROI on the Reuters website, and you can follow us on LinkedIn and X.

Opinions expressed are those of the author. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.