LIVE MARKETS-Beware the Year of the Horse

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BEWARE THE YEAR OF THE HORSE

If you're a European stock investor who believes in history repeating itself, it may be time to look away now.

The Year of the Horse, which was ushered in in China this week, is historically the year of the Chinese zodiac when the STOXX 600 .STOXX has its lowest annual return, with an average fall of 15.1%.

The Year of the Ox typically is the best performing year for the European benchmark, with the index rising on average almost 30%. The next Ox year is not until 2033.

The results do need some caveats.

LSEG's data on the STOXX 600 only goes back as far as 1986, so there are just three or four years for each sign, hardly a strong sample size.

But, the Year of the Horse has coincided with a huge 32% drop in 2002 as part of the bear market that began when the dotcom bubble burst in 2000.

1990 was also a Horse year, a year with a steep 18% correction driven by an oil price shock when Iraq invaded Kuwait.

Could history repeat itself?

Well, you wouldn't want to back the wrong horse, would you?

(Samuel Indyk)

EARLIER ON LIVE MARKETS:

STOXX OFF TO STEADY START, CALM UNDER THE SURFACE CLICK HERE

BEFORE THE BELL: EUROPEAN FUTURES DIP CLICK HERE

QUIET MARKETS, LOUD DIPLOMACY: ALL EYES ON IRAN CLICK HERE