Will Spire Global Have a Better 2026?

Spire Global (NYSE: SPIR) had a tumultuous 2025 that knocked the stock up and down. The price chart has been rocky so far in 2026, too, and investors need to understand the good and bad of this business.

Spire owns and operates a constellation of satellites that provide data to customers on a subscription basis. It also commissions the development and launch of customer-owned satellites.

These spacecraft are packed with sensors that collect nonvisual data from low-Earth orbit. They are useful for coordinating air travel and logistics. They also capture valuable atmospheric and geologic data.

Spire's satellites are cheap to launch because of their size. Management has described their design as smaller than a loaf of bread (but not as tasty). The data they collect is proprietary. Once collected, it can be sold multiple times, giving the low-cost constellation some operating leverage. Recent gains in generative AI have broadened the use cases for the data as well.

Image source: Getty Images.

A roller coaster of 2025

Looking at the stock's performance in 2025, it was a roller coaster, with highs near $20 and lows near $7. Spire entered the year with a deal to sell its maritime segment and eliminate burdensome debt. This deal nearly fell through, forcing some share dilution to stem the cash flow. Successful litigation finally resolved it in the company's favor.

With the maritime unit sold, that left the remaining segments:

• Weather and climate
• Aviation
• Space services

The dispute over the sale resulted in delayed SEC filings for the quarterly updates. The government shutdown in the fall also didn't help, as the government is a major customer. Overall, whenever it seemed like things were getting better, bad news would pull the stock back down.

Investors need a keen understanding of Spire's prospects, as this stock is very vulnerable to good and bad news.

A growth story going into 2026

Coming into 2026, Spire has a stable balance sheet. It ended the third quarter -- the most recent it has reported for -- with no debt and cash, cash equivalents, and marketable securities of $96.8 million. Earnings and free cash flow remained negative, and the challenge will be stabilizing this before cash runs out.

Full-year 2025 revenue was projected to be $70.5 million, with about $70 million contracted to recur into 2026. The company has also guided for about $92 million in revenue in 2026 and break-even operating cash flow by year-end.

Prior to divesting the maritime segment, Spire had actually scaled enough to generate $5 million of free cash flow in Q3 2024, so there is reason to think that this can be done again. At the same time, management had guided for a return to positive operating cash flow before the end of 2025, and that didn't happen.

One of the main culprits was the government shutdown, which delayed much of the company's revenue realization into 2026, as well as its ability to start new contracts. Commercial contracts to plug the shortfall were scant. While the sale of the maritime unit and the lawsuit hindered sales growth, the resolution hasn't turned previous demand into new sales just yet.

A recent launch of nine satellites for SpaceX reflects an important vote of confidence by not only a commercial customer but also a leader in the space industry, so there are early signs that this fortune may be reversing for Spire.

Is Spire stock worth buying?

I was initially very optimistic about Spire. It is certainly less risky now than a year ago with the high-interest debt wiped out, which threatened bankruptcy.

Nevertheless, 2025 also showed that Spire struggles with sales. It is very susceptible to external forces, like the government shutdown. It doesn't create its own momentum in execution.

As I write this, the stock has a $400 million market cap and trades near $12 per share, which would be a multiple of 20 based on its one quarter of free cash flow from 2024. It's not the highest, but it's not low either. At the same time, Spire is regularly slowed down by unexpected setbacks, and bad luck in 2026 will likely force it to raise capital again.

Given this, I am inclined to see if 2026 goes well before considering it a buy.

Joseph Parrish has no positions in the mentioned stocks. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.