EMERGING MARKETS-EM currencies rangebound after hot US jobs data; Turkey's inflation report in focus

By Pranav Kashyap

Feb 12 (Reuters) - Most emerging‑market currencies in Europe moved in narrow ranges as investors digested a handful of local economic data, assessed a hot U.S. jobs report and awaited Russia's interest‑rate decision.

In Turkey, the lira TRY= flickered between gains and losses, struggling to find a clear lane. Istanbul stocks .XU100 rose 0.5% as Central Bank Governor Fatih Karahan delivered the quarterly inflation report.

The bank held its end‑2026 interim inflation target at 16%, but widened its forecast band to 15–21% from 13–19% - a shift that comes after inflation jumped a hotter‑than‑expected 4.84% in January.

Meanwhile, Hungary's forint EURHUF= dropped to an over one-week low after headline inflation eased sharply to 2.1% in January, coming in below market forecasts, likely opening the door for the bank to resume rate easing after a long pause - a potential headwind for the currency, which is down over 1.4% for the week.

The data lands just as the country gears up for the April 12 national election, where right-wing Prime Minister Viktor Orban will seek to extend his 16-year hold on power.

Meanwhile, Poland's zloty EURPLN= was flat. The country's gross domestic product rose 4% year-on-year in the fourth quarter.

MSCI's emerging-market equity index .MSCIEF, still cruising near record highs, rose 0.5%, while the companion currency gauge .MIEM00000CUS edged up 0.2%.

Even with the day's restrained price action, the EM equity index was on track for its strongest week since September 2024, lifted by a renewed "risk‑on" pulse after the recent stumble in global tech and an ongoing push by investors to diversify exposure.

Singapore's benchmark equity index .STI breached the psychologically important 5,000-point level for the first time, while South Korean shares .KS11 hit another record.

On a broad front, markets were still digesting U.S. labour numbers suggesting the job market started 2026 on firmer footing than expected, prompting traders to dial back rate‑cut bets - a global linchpin for everything from EM funding costs to investor appetite for risk.

"We now only expect one 25bps rate cut, likely at the June meeting. But continued economic strength also means there's a notable risk that this rate cut could be postponed beyond June," said Jan Groen, an economist at Societe Generale.

In Russia, the rouble RUB=, after a 30% surge versus the dollar in 2025, was up 2% year-to-date and currently flat on the day.

The country's rate-setting meeting on Friday lands at a moment when growth cooled and inflation eased through 2025, yet January's tax-driven flare-up in prices, the distortions from the Russia-Ukraine war, sanctions and heavier defense outlays, keep inflation risks elevated and complicate policy decisions.

In Southeast Asia, Jakarta's benchmark stock index .JKSE was down 0.4%, and still hasn't fully clawed back losses from the earlier scramble to the exits. The Indonesia Stock Exchange said it would begin publishing a list of shareholder concentrations to boost transparency, following talks with MSCI.

Elsewhere, the Democratic Republic of Congo wants to turn its international bond debut into the first of many, its finance minister told Reuters, as the country rides a metals boom and improving ties with the United States.