FACTBOX-Macquarie hikes gold forecasts for 2026
Feb 5 (Reuters) - Macquarie Group raised its average gold price forecasts for the first- and second-quarter and full-year on Thursday, but said it would wait to revise longer‑term expectations due to a disconnect between market fundamentals and extreme volatility.
The bank lifted its average first-quarter 2026 gold forecast to $4,590 an ounce, up from $4,300 previously and hiked its second-quarter estimate to $4,300 from $4,200.
It raised its average 2026 gold price forecast to $4,323 per ounce, compared with an earlier estimate of $4,225.
Spot gold was currently down 1.8% at $4,875.71 per ounce. On January 30, the yellow metal logged its steepest daily fall since 1983 a day after hitting a record $5,994.82, following U.S. President Donald Trump's naming of Kevin Warsh as his choice for Federal Reserve chair.
Prices have gained about 13% so far this year after rallying more than 64% in 2025.
Following is a list of analysts' latest gold price forecasts (in $ per ounce):
Brokerage/Agency | Annual Price Forecast | Price Targets | Forecast as of |
| 2026 |
|
|
Macquarie Group | $4,323 | Expects prices to average $4,590 in first quarter and $4,300 in second quarter | February 5, 2026 |
Wells Fargo Investment Institute* | Expects $6,100-$6,300 by end of 2026 | February 4, 2026 | |
J.P. Morgan | $6,300 | Expects prices reaching $6,300 by 4Q26 | February 2, 2026 |
UBS | - | Raises target to $6,200 for March, June, and September 2026 | January 29, 2026 |
Deutsche Bank | $5,500 | $6,000 in 2026 | January 26, 2026 |
Societe Generale | - | $6,000 by the end of 2026 | January 26, 2026 |
Morgan Stanley | $4,600 | Bull case is $5,700 for second half of 2026 | January 23, 2026 |
Goldman Sachs | - | $5,400 by December 2026 | January 22, 2026 |
Citi Research | $5,000 | Raises 0-3 month price target to $5,000 | January 13, 2026 |
HSBC | $4,587 | $4,450 by year-end 2026 | January 8, 2026 |
ANZ | $4,445 | $4,400 by year-end and $4,600 by June 2026 | October 16, 2025 |
Bank of America | $4,438 | 2026 gold outlook raised to $5,000 | October 13, 2025 |
Standard Chartered | $4,488 | - | October 13, 2025 |
Commerzbank | $4,900 | $4,800 by mid-2026 | January 13, 2026 |
*end-of-period forecasts
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