LIVE MARKETS-Global commodity markets turned on their heads in 2026 - Berenberg
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GLOBAL COMMODITY MARKETS TURNED ON THEIR HEADS IN 2026 - BERENBERG
It's been a blistering start to the year for metals. Gold continues to rally, as does silver. Meanwhile copper - though not a safe haven - is also ripping higher on supply fears and record‑tight fundamentals.
Berenberg analysts think the gold and copper sub-sectors are the place to be in equities, amid an upheaval of global commodity markets prompted by elevated geopolitical risk, physical shortages and positive sentiment.
In a Tuesday note, the mining team give an update as they work through an official revision to their forecasts, prompted by the new year rally that has overtaken their original estimates.
"We forecast a 39% EBITDA uplift, on average, for the gold equities in our coverage for FY26E, and a 54% uplift for FY27E, thereby offering meaningful upside," they write.
On the silver front, they say London-listed Fresnillo offers 100% upside to their full year 2027 EBITDA estimate.
When it comes to copper, they highlight London-listed ACG Metals ACGa.L and Sweden's Boliden BOL.ST.
Taking a step back, they flag that gold is rising on geopolitical tensions, but also point out a deeper structural factor of rising commodity prices pushing up inflation. This further supports the price of gold given it "is a store of value in inflationary times."
They add they would not be taking profits on gold miners at this point in time and remain bullish on gold equities.
"Our favoured names are: Endeavour Mining, Wheaton Precious Metals and Fresnillo in the large caps; and Pan African Resources and Resolute Mining in the SMID-caps," they write.
(Lucy Raitano)
EARLIER ON LIVE MARKETS
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