PRECIOUS-Gold rushes past $5,000 to record high on safe-haven rush

By Kavya Balaraman and Anjana Anil

Jan 26 (Reuters) - Gold surged to a record high above $5,000 an ounce on Monday, extending a historic rally as investors piled into the safe-haven asset amid rising geopolitical tensions.

Spot gold XAU= rose 0.85% to $5,024.95 per ounce by 2341 GMT, while U.S. gold futures GCcv1 for February delivery gained 0.91% to $5,024.60 per ounce.

Gold soared 64% in 2025, underpinned by sustained safe-haven demand, U.S. monetary policy easing, robust central bank purchases - with China extending its gold-buying spree for a fourteenth month in December - and record inflows into exchange-traded funds. Prices have gained more than 16% this year.

"We expect further upside. Our current forecast suggests that prices will peak at around $5,500 later this year," said Philip Newman, director at Metals Focus.

"Periodic pullbacks are likely as investors take profits, but we expect each correction to be short‑lived and met with strong buying interest," Newman added.

Escalating friction between the United States and NATO over Greenland has added fresh momentum to gold's advance this year on expectations of more financial and geopolitical uncertainty.

On the geopolitical front, Ukraine and Russia ended a second day of U.S.-brokered talks in Abu Dhabi on Saturday without a deal, with more discussions expected next weekend, even as overnight Russian airstrikes knocked out power for over a million Ukrainians amid subzero cold.

Adding to the uncertainty, U.S. President Donald Trump said on Saturday he would impose a 100% tariff on Canada if it follows through on a trade deal with China, warning Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney that a deal would endanger his country.

"Our forecast for the year is that gold will see a high of $6,400 an ounce with an average of $5,375," independent analyst Ross Norman said.

Spot silver XAG= rose 1.72% to $104.72 per ounce. Spot platinum XPT= was steady at $2,767 per ounce, while spot palladium XPD= rose 0.17% to $2,013.50 per ounce.

Silver climbed above the $100 mark for the first time on Friday, building on its 147% rise last year as retail-investor flows and momentum-driven buying compounded a prolonged spell of tightness in physical markets for the metal.