Morgan Stanley forecasts weak global truck sales in 2026
Morgan Stanley expects 2026 sales for truckmakers to remain weak, especially in North America
But adds improving freight rates, easing tariff uncertainty, EPA 2027 clarity, and long-term nearshoring tailwinds could potentially align throughout the year and mark start of cyclical recovery into 2027
Remains cautious on near-term 2026 recovery in North America; expects South America to stay flat; sees modest improvement potential in Europe
Daimler Truck DTGGe.DE ("overweight") is broker's top pick thanks to strong exposure to North America, self-help actions reducing European cost base, and margin safety created by attractive shareholder return strategy
Cuts Volvo VOLVb.ST to "equal-weight" from "overweight", awaiting better entry points after recent rally
Cuts Traton 8TRA.DE to "underweight" from "equal-weight", expecting impact from ramp-up of China factory and margin pressure from S232 tariffs for international business unit
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