Gordon Haskett sees mixed year for US restaurants in 2026, Yum Brand up after upgrade

Gordon Haskett expects mixed year for U.S. restaurants in 2026, says lower‑income and younger consumers to remain under pressure while companies with strong same‑store sales (SSS) drivers to outperform

Brokerage says consumer demand will stay soft in 2026, with reduced visit frequency among lower‑income diners, weaker job market, inflation outweighing stimulus

However, brokerage says the One Big Beautiful Bill Act stimulus to be greater income growth tailwind for middle and upper-income cohorts

Gordon Haskett favors Brinker International EAT.N, Dutch Bros BROS.N and Shake Shack SHAK.N, as they were the only top‑20 restaurant stocks to post more than 2% SSS, expects them to repeat in 2026

Says global franchise models like Domino's DPZ.N, McDonald's MCD.N and Yum Brands YUM.N offer the best cash‑flow visibility amid persistent traffic declines

Brokerage upgrades YUM to "buy" from "hold, sees the potential Pizza Hut divestiture along with strong SSS and unit growth to benefit co, shares up 1.2% at $152.23

Downgrades Chipotle CMG.N to "hold" from "buy", sees traffic continue to decline in 2026

S&P 500 Restaurants sub index .SPLRCREST down 1.3% in 2025 vs a 17.3% rise for the broader S&P 500 index .SPX