A 'new era' ahead? Top US banks ride a blockbuster year into 2026

Wall Street's biggest banks are on pace to clock a second consecutive year of blockbuster double-digit gains

S&P 500 Banks Index .SPXBK, which tracks large-cap U.S. lenders, up ~31.3% so far in 2025, following a near 33% jump in 2024; S&P 500 .SPX up ~17.3% YTD

Stronger deal activity, an IPO comeback, easing rate expectations and stable loan demand have fueled gains across the sector

JPMorgan Chase JPM.N, the country's largest lender and often seen as a barometer of the U.S. economy, has surged 35%.

Analysts expect the upswing to roll into 2026

"We see further momentum and outperformance in 2026 as multi-year structural tailwinds for capital markets and capital return further unfold," brokerage KBW wrote in an outlook note

Morgan Stanley analysts say revenue growth should accelerate in 2026 on higher capital markets activity and loan growth, while regulatory rollbacks fuel investor enthusiasm

"Regulatory reform is the biggest sea change for large-cap banks in 2026, after over a decade of tougher and tougher rules," the brokerage wrote in an outlook note titled, 'A New Era for Large Cap Banks'

Banking sector kicks off 2026 earnings season in mid-January, with attention on investment banking activity and interest income trends

Note: 2025 performance through market close on December 30