LIVE MARKETS-In a quiet week, can Fed meeting minutes tell us anything?

Welcome to the home for real-time coverage of markets brought to you by Reuters reporters. You can share your thoughts with us at markets.research@thomsonreuters.com

IN A QUIET WEEK, CAN FED MEETING MINUTES TELL US ANYTHING?

Trading is expected to be quiet this week with no major economic releases and limited scheduled catalysts to drive direction, which may place more attention than usual on the Federal Reserve’s meeting minutes on Tuesday.

A sharply divided Fed cut interest rates earlier this month but signaled borrowing costs are unlikely to drop further in the near term as it awaits clarity on the direction of a job market showing signs of softening, inflation that "remains somewhat elevated" and an economy it sees picking up steam next year.

This week’s minutes “could clarify the widening disconnect between the Fed’s hawkish outlook and markets still pricing multiple rate cuts, even as yields ease, the dollar slides toward multi-year lows, and political uncertainty clouds Fed independence,” analysts at LMAX Group said in a report.

Fed funds futures traders are pricing in between two and three 25 basis point cuts next year, with the first cut seen as having roughly 50/50 odds for March.

Meanwhile, analysts at Action Economics note that ongoing issues with data following the recent 43-day shutdown will likely limit how much insight can be derived from the minutes, at least for the near term.

“The results of that meeting, including the policy statement, Chair Powell's press conference, Fedspeak, and the dot plot strongly indicated a pause at the upcoming January 27-28 meeting. And amid ongoing data problems, it would be highly unlikely that there would be enough new information to alter that outcome,” they said.

(Karen Brettell)

EARLIER ON LIVE MARKETS:

PENDING HOME SALES THROW SURPRISE HOUSE PARTY CLICK HERE

SANTA'S SLEIGH SKIDS TO KICK OFF FINAL WEEK OF THE YEAR CLICK HERE

ORACLE SHARES HEAD FOR WORST QUARTER SINCE 2001 AS AI SPENDING SPOOKS INVESTORS CLICK HERE

S&P 500 POISED TO RISE FOR AN EIGHTH-STRAIGHT MONTH AND A THIRD-STRAIGHT YEAR CLICK HERE

UKRAINE PEACE HOPES JUST A BLIP FOR DEFENCE STOCKS 2025 SURGE CLICK HERE

DEFENCE DRAGS, STOXX BRIEFLY HITS NEW PEAK CLICK HERE

BEFORE THE BELL: EUROPE SET TO EXTEND YEAR-END GAINS CLICK HERE