REFILE-LIVE MARKETS-S&P 500 on track for a "three-peat", but a "four-peat" presents a real hurdle

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S&P 500 ON TRACK FOR A "THREE-PEAT", BUT A "FOUR-PEAT" PRESENTS A REAL HURDLE

The S&P 500 .SPX has risen about 18% so far this year. With this, it's on track to rise for a third straight year, which is also known as a "three-peat."

However, according to Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA, a "four-peat" is "highly unlikely."

"Since 1945, the S&P 500 recorded only one four-peat (1949-1952) and one five-peat (1995-1999)," writes Stovall in his U.S. Investment Policy Note, which was out after the market closed on Wednesday.

Meanwhile, he adds that the Santa Claus Rally countdown kicked off on Wednesday on a positive note.

As Stovall sees it, a gain during the final five days of the old year and the first two of the new year traditionally can offer an early warning signal as to the market’s appreciation potential for the year ahead.

It's obviously not foolproof, since he says it did register false readings in the past two years.

"Only once since WWII has there been a 'three-peat' in negative Santa Claus performances (1947-1949). A double-digit gain ensued, as was the case following the previous back-to-back declines in the indicator in 1993-1994 and 2015-2016. Of course, past performance is never a guarantee of future results," Stovall writes.

(Terence Gabriel)