LIVE MARKETS-All I want for Christmas is my two economic indicators

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ALL I WANT FOR CHRISTMAS IS MY TWO ECONOMIC INDICATORS

Economic indicators were hung by the chimney with care on Wednesday, in the light-volume, truncated Christmas Eve session.

214,000 U.S. workers joined the queue outside the unemployment office USJOB=ECI last week, 4.5% fewer than the previous week's 224,000.

Analysts expected that number to hold firm. Were employers less inclined to hand out pink slips just ahead of the seasonal festivities?

Ironing out weekly volatility, the four-week moving average of initial claims is still moving sideways, with a slight downward bias and within the range associated with healthy labor market churn.

Economists are still watching for the recent spate of corporate layoff announcements to start making itself felt in the claims data.

"Despite ongoing seasonal volatility, initial jobless claims remain in ranges consistent with relatively steady labor market conditions and don’t change our outlook for the labor market or Fed policy," writes Nancy Vanden Houten, lead economist at Oxford Economics.

Ongoing jobless claims USJOBN=ECI, which are reported on a one-week lag, moved in the opposite direction, rising 2.0% to 1.923 million, or 23,000 above the mean estimate. This metric remains elevated, coming at a time of weak hiring and consumer survey data that suggests laid-off workers are finding it increasingly difficult to find a replacement gig.

Switching gears, the cost of financing home loans fell last week, but not enough to coax would-be borrowers off the bench.

The average 30-year fixed contract rate USMG=ECI cooled down by 7 basis points to 6.31%, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA).

As a result, demand for loans to purchase homes USMGPI=ECI - among the housing market's most leading indicators - soured by 3.7%. Refi applications USMGR=ECI decreased by 5.6%.

Combined, total mortgage demand slid 5.0%.

"MBA expects the trends of a softening job market, sticky inflation, elevated home inventories, and steady mortgage rates will persist into the new year,” said Mike Fratantoni, MBA’s chief economist.

The 30-year fixed rate currently sits 58 basis points below where it was during the same week a year ago.

Over that same period, purchase applications have increased by 15.9%, while refi demand has spiked 110.1%.

(Stephen Culp)

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