LIVE MARKETS-European gas storage this winter looks a bit fragile

Welcome to the home for real-time coverage of markets brought to you by Reuters reporters. You can share your thoughts with us at markets.research@thomsonreuters.com

EUROPEAN GAS STORAGE THIS WINTER LOOKS A BIT FRAGILE

Remember a few years back when we were all worried about levels of European gas storage? Morgan Stanley energy analysts had a note out late Thursday that seemed worth flagging to a broader markets audience - people who read our live blog.

MS say that the situation this winter looks "relatively fragile", with European inventory levels at 83% full, a 10-year low entering winter (excluding 2021), and 15 percentage points lower than the average inventory fill over 2022-2024.

That's not a huge reason to panic, as they say "this inventory risk is diminished by the large volume of LNG supply already hitting the market".

But it does mean there is a risk of short-term price spikes as "LNG supplies still take 2-3 weeks to arrive compared with the previous flexibility from Russian gas supply, where supplies could be nominated on a day-ahead basis."

So one to watch.

Longer term, MS see gas prices falling. They forecast the TTF benchmark to fall below €30/MWh by the second half of 2026.

Those levels haven't been seen since May 2024. The benchmark was last at 31.35 euros per megawatt hour. TRNLTTFMc1 EU/NG

(Alun John)

EARLIER ON LIVE MARKETS:

TRUMP ONE YEAR ON: WHAT'S NEXT? CLICK HERE

STUTTERING START; MEDIA SECTOR GETS ITV BOOST CLICK HERE

EUROPE BEFORE THE BELL: FUTURES SIGNAL HIGHER OPEN CLICK HERE

THE AI DIP MAY NOT BE DONE CLICK HERE