LIVE MARKETS-This week in economics: In like a lamb, out like a lion

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THIS WEEK IN ECONOMICS: IN LIKE A LAMB, OUT LIKE A LION

There are crickets chirping at the top of what promises to be a busy week, economically speaking, with no major data to speak of on Monday.

That's expected to change as the week progresses.

On Tuesday, S&P Global is due to release its "flash" PMI, which will provide a sneak preview of September business activity. Analysts predict the manufacturing and services sectors have both continued to expand, but with less momentum. The Commerce Department is slated to chime in with a look at the second-quarter current account deficit, which is the sum of trade, investment, remittances and other forms of international flows.

The current account gap reached a record $450.2 billion in the first quarter as businesses rushed to import goods and services to avoid the Trump tariffs. That deficit shrank by 43.1% to 256.3 billion in the April-to-June period, according to consensus.

Wednesday promises to deliver a housing double-dip, with the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) weekly home financing demand data and August new home sales report from our friends at the Commerce Department. MBA's average 30-year fixed contract rate has been on the wane of late - prompting a surge in home loan applications in last week's report - but so far that hasn't translated to sales.

Sales of newly constructed U.S. homes are expected to have edged 0.3% lower to 650,000 units at a seasonally-adjusted annualized rate (SAAR).

Thursday kicks into overdrive.

Aside from weekly jobless claims, which will be parsed for signs of increasing weakness in the labor market, new orders for durable goods are estimated to have dipped 0.5% last month, with core capital goods - a barometer of capex intentions - are seen easing by a nominal 0.1%.

The National Association of Realtors is expected to show sales pre-owned U.S. homes dropped 1.2% in August to 3.96 million units SAAR.

But the Commerce Department's third and final stab at second-quarter GDP will likely steal the limelight. Analysts see the number holding steady at a fairly robust 3.3%, on a quarterly annualized basis.

On Friday, aside from the University of Michigan's final say on September consumer sentiment, the indefatigable Commerce Department is due to deliver the week's headliner with its broad-ranging Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report, which includes Powell & Co's preferred inflation yardstick.

Economists predict headline and core prices (ex. food, energy) increased by 0.3% and 0.2%, respectively. Year-on-year headline inflation is expected to heat up to 2.7%, while core is seen holding steady at 2.9% - both measures stubbornly north of the Fed's average annual 2% inflation target.

Personal income is predicted to have grown by 0.3%, slower than July's 0.4% increase. Consumer spending, which accounts for about 70% of U.S. economic growth, is estimated to have risen by 0.5%, a repeat of the July reading.

Here's a look at major U.S. inflation gauges, and their long, winding path down toward the Fed's goal:

(Stephen Culp)

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