3 Ways Tesla Stock Could Surprise Everyone and Soar Even Higher

Key Points

• Robotaxi is live in Austin and could scale into a high-margin software and services business.

• Optimus is moving from demos to early production uses, with management openly targeting rapid scaling.

• Energy keeps setting records and contributing to Tesla's bottom line, helping diversify the business.

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Shares of Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) have rebounded as investors refocus on autonomy, artificial intelligence (AI), and energy -- not just electric vehicle deliveries. The electric vehicle maker also happens to be an AI software company, a robotics developer, and a growing grid-scale storage provider. Those adjacencies matter because they can add higher-margin, more recurring revenue over time. Meanwhile, the company boasts a market capitalization of $1.4 trillion -- far higher than any other automaker and reflecting high expectations but also a renewed debate about what Tesla could become beyond cars.

Still, three ambitions could contribute even further upside for the stock if execution goes right: Tesla's commercial robotaxi network, the Optimus humanoid platform, and a scaled energy business. Management's latest quarterly update and earnings call commentary frame how each could evolve from intriguing projects to real profit drivers.

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Robotaxi could turn cars into a software platform

Perhaps the biggest unlock for the stock is a paid autonomous ride-sharing service. In June, Tesla launched its first robotaxi service in Austin -- a move management says is pivotal in the company's transition into an AI, robotics, and services company. It calls the service Robotaxi. It features a dedicated robotaxi app, with an approach built on camera-only vision and neural networks trained on fleet data. That is the recipe for a margin profile more akin to software and networks if it scales.

There is still a long road from a limited rollout to a large, profitable network. Management said on the earnings call that it had "successfully launch[ed] robotaxi" in Austin with paying customers and signaled plans to expand service areas, while outside reporting has traced the pilot's cautious geofenced start. The technology must keep improving, and regulators will scrutinize every step. But if Tesla can move from city trials to broader coverage, every one of its electric vehicles with autonomy-capable hardware effectively becomes a potential node in a network with high incremental margins.

Robotics could open a brand-new market

Optimus, Tesla's humanoid robot, is no longer just a stage demo. Elon Musk has repeatedly prioritized bringing Optimus into Tesla's own factories first, and management has talked about beginning production in 2025 and scaling rapidly thereafter. The near-term milestones look practical -- internal deployment and manufacturing tasks -- but the longer-term prize is a multipurpose platform that could be sold or licensed across industries if performance, reliability, and costs pencil out.

Reports this summer suggested early production targets are ambitious and that design work continues, which is exactly what investors should expect from an emerging platform. Additionally, if Optimus moves from internal use to commercial sales at attractive unit economics, the total addressable market is vast. This is the type of option value that, if it works, can change the narrative on earnings power per share.

Energy is already contributing substantial profits

Unlike robotaxi and robotics, energy is delivering today. In the second quarter of 2025, Tesla posted total revenue of about $22.5 billion and an operating margin of 4.1%. Within that, energy storage deployments hit another trailing-12-month record and the segment's revenue was a material $2.8 billion, and energy gross profit reached a quarterly record of $846 million as Megapack scale and Shanghai production kicked in. This compares to total company gross profit of $3.9 billion. Tesla also disclosed 9.6 gigawatt-hours of storage deployed in Q2.

This matters because energy diversifies the business and can smooth automotive cyclicality. The segment's rising profitability provides cash to fund AI training clusters, autonomy R&D, and robotics -- all while building customer relationships with utilities and grid operators. If deployments continue to compound and software-enabled services (such as virtual power plants and fleet management) grow alongside the installed base, energy's contribution to earnings could surprise to the upside.

The path to outperformance

There are real execution risks here -- starting with the stock's valuation. Shares trade at about 250 times earnings as of this writing. While this is a massive premium, investors should note that the company has already demonstrated far higher earnings, even without its more ambitious ventures taking off. Sure, much of that was due to sales of regulatory credits to other automakers. But even without these credits, earnings were substantially higher a few years ago. If Tesla can improve its automotive margins as it scales while also executing on its loftier growth ambitions, there's a chance shares could rise sharply over the next five to 10 years.

All together, Tesla's near-term auto margin and macro risks are real, and the stock's premium leaves little room for stumbles. But the pathway to upside is clearer than it was a year ago: robotaxi turning cars into revenue-generating assets, Optimus evolving into a commercial platform, and energy scaling with improving profitability. For investors evaluating the next leg of this story, those three levers are the catalysts that could push earnings power higher over time if the company executes. But don't get me wrong: This is still a high-risk stock. Tread carefully and keep a close watch eye on execution.

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Daniel Sparks and/or his clients have positions in Tesla. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Tesla. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.