If You Buy Starbucks With $10,000 in 2025, Will You Become a Millionaire in 10 Years?

Key Points

• Starbucks’s same-store sales remain under pressure, as management tries to orchestrate a successful turnaround.

• With well over 40,000 stores, the company is the leading player in the global retail coffee market.

• The stock trades at a steep valuation, which isn’t warranted, given its weak financial performance.

• 10 stocks we like better than Starbucks ›

Starbucks (NASDAQ: SBUX) is a household name. But the business hasn't worked out well for investors. The share price is down 4% in the past five years (as of Sept. 18). This is due to ongoing struggles that are hitting the company's financials, which management is trying to fix.

This restaurant stock trades 34% below its record high. But if things start improving, perhaps Starbucks can win over investors in the long run.

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If you buy shares with $10,000 in 2025, will you become a millionaire in 10 years?

Image source: Starbucks.

Trying to turn things around

Starbucks hired former CEO of Chipotle Brian Niccol a year ago to fix things at the coffeehouse chain. Starbucks has been struggling, as its brand took a hit from customers' perception about the company's political stance. And customers weren't happy with aspects of the store and ordering experience, like longer wait times, high prices, and a complex menu. It's not surprising that disappointing financial results caused the stock to perform poorly.

Niccol's notable success running the Tex-Mex fast-casual chain could help Starbucks. Key initiatives include investing more into employees to improve the customer experience. Starbucks will also simplify the menu.

The finances are still out of order, though. Same-store sales, one of the most important metrics for restaurants, declined 2% in the latest fiscal quarter (Q3 2025 ended June 29). This was the sixth straight quarter that a fall was recorded. Until this figure starts growing again, investors have every right to be concerned.

The overarching goal is to again make Starbucks a top destination for customers. A successful turnaround will take time. But there is optimism. "We're building back a better Starbucks experience and a better business," Niccol said during the company's Q3 results.

Dominating the retail coffee market

Starbucks currently sports a market cap of $94 billion, a size deserving of respect. Early investors must be pleased. Since the company's initial public offering in 1992, shares have put up a 32,850% total return (as of Sept. 18). During the same period of time, the S&P 500 has produced a total return of 3,010%.

This business dominates the industry. As of June 29, there were 41,097 Starbucks locations scattered across the globe. While the company has a presence seemingly everywhere, its two biggest markets, the U.S. and China, combined represent 61% of its store footprint.

There are still reasons to appreciate this business. It has one of the most recognizable brands on the face of the planet. And it's consistently profitable. In the past five years, it has posted an average operating margin of 13.5%.

The business has been well ahead of other restaurants and retailers when it comes to integrating technology into its operations. The Starbucks Rewards program (similar to what is offered today) was created in 2009, and it now has 34 million 90-day active members in the U.S. This gives management a valuable channel to communicate directly with customers, while collecting data that informs product and marketing strategies.

Should you buy Starbucks?

The consensus view among Wall Street sell-side analysts is that Starbucks' revenue will increase at a compound annual rate of 5.5% between fiscal 2024 and 2027, while earnings per share will grow at a yearly clip of 0.8%. This weaker outlook, coupled with an expensive price-to-earnings ratio of 35.8, doesn't present a compelling opportunity.

Investors are better off avoiding buying Starbucks. There's a lot of risk right now, as it could take time for the financial picture to improve. If the valuation becomes more attractive, then that perspective could shift.

Investors also should not expect the business to turn a $10,000 starting capital outlay into $1 million in a decade. This is an extremely low-probability outcome, as it's an unbelievable gain in a short period of time. It's best to focus your attention on building a diversified portfolio of high-quality stocks.

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Neil Patel has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Chipotle Mexican Grill and Starbucks. The Motley Fool recommends the following options: short September 2025 $60 calls on Chipotle Mexican Grill. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.