Quantum computing is expected to become commercially viable by 2030.
Larger competitors are taking a different approach to quantum computing.
IonQ is an early competitor in this field, but remains a risky investment.
Quantum computing is starting to become a more popular investment space, although the technology is still being proven out. However, by 2030, it's expected by some observers to be commercially viable -- opening the door for quantum computing companies to emerge as the top growth stocks in the market.
I think that IonQ (NYSE: IONQ) will be among the best in this young industry. IonQ has a few key advantages that may work in its favor, making it a strong candidate. Here's why.
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We're still in the early stages of quantum computing development, and there are significant changes from month to month in this industry. However, IonQ has consistently stayed at the top of the list of best-performing quantum computing businesses, and I think that has a lot to do with the approach that it's taking to the field.
Quantum computing is full of potent competitors, including big tech giants like Alphabet and Microsoft. These companies have substantial cash flows that can be easily diverted to bolster their quantum computing efforts. As a result, IonQ is fighting an uphill battle because it doesn't have nearly the resources, as it's funding its business through research contracts and raising cash via offering more shares on the pubic markets.
But IonQ is doing something different than almost every company out there, and it could provide the advantage IonQ needs to become commercially relevant.
While most quantum computing companies are taking the superconducting approach to quantum computing, IonQ is using the trapped ion technique. Superconducting requires cooling a particle to nearly absolute zero, which is an expensive process. Trapped ion can be done at room temperature, eliminating this expensive input cost.
One advantage superconducting systems have over trapped ions is the speed at which calculations are processed. A trapped ion is far slower than superconducting, but it makes up for this slow speed by providing more accurate calculations. In fact, IonQ holds the world record for one-gate and two-gate accuracy.
Computing accuracy is one of the major items holding quantum computing back from being commercially viable right now, and if IonQ can cross a threshold that a client deems acceptable before some of the other competitors in the quantum computing arms race, it could achieve first-mover advantage. Furthermore, because it has lower input costs, deploying its technology would be cheaper.
This one-two punch could propel IonQ to become the top growth stock by 2030, but just what kind of upside can investors expect?
IonQ's CEO, Peter Chapman, expects the company to generate nearly $1 billion in annual revenue and achieve profitability by 2030. That's a monumental goal, but if it achieves that, the market will be thrilled with the results. But that's just the beginning.
By 2035, IonQ projects a total addressable market of $87 billion. It's unlikely to capture all of that market, but it could capture a significant chunk. Nvidia has managed to achieve a 90% data center GPU market share due to its superior technology, and it's feasible that IonQ could do the same, although unlikely.
Still, there's no guarantee that IonQ turns out to be the top growth stock by 2030. There may be some system limitations with the trapped ion approach that IonQ and investors are not aware of, as the technology is still in its early stages of development. As a result, investors need to keep their position sizing fairly small, say about 1% of total portfolio value. That way, if the stock goes to $0, it won't affect the portfolio's long-term returns all that much. But if it rises 10x over the next decade, it will be an incredible boost to the portfolio.
I'm not sure where IonQ will end up in the quantum computing arms race, but I think it has the potential to be a massive winner if its projections come true.
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Keithen Drury has positions in Alphabet and Nvidia. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Alphabet, Microsoft, and Nvidia. The Motley Fool recommends the following options: long January 2026 $395 calls on Microsoft and short January 2026 $405 calls on Microsoft. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.