FACTBOX-Brokerages bullish on S&P 500 index even as tariff headwinds persist
September 12 (Reuters) - Major brokerages have turned buoyant on the benchmark S&P 500 .SPX index, betting on resilient corporate earnings and stable U.S. economy, despite companies flagging hits due to tariffs.
As the gap widens between bullish targets from brokerages and cautious signals from companies, the market's trajectory may hinge on how effective tariff mitigation strategies would prove to be.
In the past week, Barclays and Deutsche Bank became the latest brokerages to raise their year-end S&P 500 targets.
Market participants expect the U.S. Federal Reserve to deliver a rate cut at next week's policy meeting that could further aid equities following soft jobs and inflation reports.
The U.S. economy is expected to grow between 1% and 2% this year, according to estimates from leading brokerages.
Following are the forecasts from some top banks on economic growth, and the performance of major asset classes in 2025.
U.S. recession forecasts:
Brokerage | Recession Probability |
Goldman Sachs | 30% |
J.P.Morgan | 40% |
Wells Fargo | 35% |
Barclays | No recession |
Forecasts for stocks, currencies and bonds:
Brokerage | S&P 500 target | U.S. 10-year yield target | EUR/USD | USD/JPY
| USD/CNY |
UBS Global Research | 6100 | 3.80% | 1.23 | 130 | 7.60 |
Goldman Sachs | 6600 | 4.20% | 1.25(next 12 months) | 135 (next 12 months) | 6.90(next 12 months) |
UBS Global Wealth Management | 6600 | 4.00% | 1.16 (Dec-25) | 140 (Dec-25) | 7.10(Dec-25) |
Wells Fargo Investment Institute | 6300-6500 | 4.00%-4.50% | 1.08-1.12 | 144-148 |
|
Societe Generale | 6750 | 4.50% (Q4'25) | 1.09 | 146.3 | 7.28 |
Deutsche Bank | 7000 | 4.65% (Q4'25) | 1.10 | 145 | 7.35 |
Nomura |
| 4.15% | 1.03 | 135 | 6.93 |
Morgan Stanley | 6500 | 4% (Q4'25) | 1.08 (Q4'25) | 141 (Q4'25) | 7.60 (Q4'25) |
J.P.Morgan | 6500 | 4.10% (Q3'25) | 1.14 (Q4'25) | 140 (Q4'25) | 7.60 |
BofA Global Research | 6300 | 4.50% | 1.20 | 155 | 7.30 |
Wells Fargo |
| 4.20% | 1.19(Q4'25) | 144 (Q4'25) | 7.20 (Q4'25) |
BMO Capital Markets | 6100 |
|
|
|
|
Jefferies | 6600 | 4.43% |
|
|
|
Barclays | 6450 | 4.00% (Q4'25) | 1.06 (Q4'25) | 144 (Q4'25) | 7.50 (Q4'25) |
Piper Sandler | 6600 |
|
|
|
|
Berenberg |
| 4.90% | 1.16 | 140 | 7.30 |
BNP Paribas |
| 4.65% (Q4'25) | 1.00 (Q4'25) | 156 (Q4'25) |
|
Canaccord Genuity | 6325 |
|
|
|
|
Citigroup | 6600 | 4.10% (Q4'25) | 1.05 | 139 |
|
ING |
|
| 1.02 | 160 | 7.35 |
HSBC | 6500 |
|
|
|
|
Evercore ISI | 6800 |
|
|
|
|
Peel Hunt |
| 4.20% | 1.11 (Q4'25) |
|
|
RBC Capital Markets | 6250 | 4% |
|
|
|
Oppenheimer Asset Management | 7100 |
|
|
|
|
Wells Fargo | 6650 |
|
Real GDP Growth:
Real GDP growth forecasts for 2025 | ||||||
Brokerage | GLOBAL | U.S. | CHINA | EURO AREA | UK | INDIA |
UBS Global Research | 2.5% | 1.4% | 4.7% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 6% |
Goldman Sachs | 2.6% | 1.8% | 4.7% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 6.5% |
Barclays | 2.7% | 1.4% | 4.5% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 6.9% |
Morgan Stanley | 2.9% | 1.5% | 4.5% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 6.4% |
J.P.Morgan | 2.5% | 1.9% | 4.8% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 6.8% |
UBS Global Wealth Management | 2.7% | 1.5% | 4.0% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 6.0% |
Wells Fargo | 2.9% | 1.8% | 4.8% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 7.1% |
Societe Generale | 3.3% | 2.2% | 4.7% | 1.0% | 1.6% |
|
Citigroup | 2.5% | 1.6% | 5.0% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 6.9% |
Nomura | 3.0% | 1.6% | 4.6% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 6.6% |
BofA Global Research | 3.1% | 1.8% | 4.7% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 6.4% |
Deutsche Bank | 3.0% | 1.7% | 4.8% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 6.5% |
Wells Fargo Investment Institute | 2.3% | 1.3% |
| 1.1% |
|
|
Berenberg | 2.3% | 1.5% | 4.4% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 6.5% |
BNP Paribas |
| 2.1% | 4.5% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 6.2% (March 2026) |
Peel Hunt |
| 1.5% | 4.5% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 6.3% |
ING |
| 2.0% | 4.7% | 0.7% | 1.4% |
|
Jefferies |
| 2.4% (Q4/Q4) |
|
|
|
|
Standard Chartered | 1.50% | 4.8% | 1% | 1.10% | 6.6% | |
* UBS Global Research and UBS Global Wealth Management are distinct, independent divisions in UBS Group
* Wells Fargo Investment Institute is a wholly owned subsidiary of Wells Fargo Bank
Brokerages' 2025 forecast for S&P 500 index target
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