If Your Social Security Checks Are Bigger Than This, You'll Get an Above-Average COLA in 2026

Key Points

• Social Security cost-of-living adjustments (COLAs) are calculated as percentages.

• If your Social Security checks are larger than average today, you'll get a larger COLA than average by dollar amount.

• The COLA will take effect with your January 2026 payment.

• The $23,760 Social Security bonus most retirees completely overlook ›

Bigger Social Security checks are just a few months away, and you only have to wait a few more weeks to find out exactly how much larger yours will be in 2026. The Social Security Administration will officially announce next year's cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) on Oct. 15.

There's already speculation that the 2026 COLA will bring an above-average boost. I can't tell you exactly what that will look like for you, but I can promise that if your current benefits are over a certain amount, you'll almost certainly get a larger COLA than the typical senior.

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How the Social Security Administration calculates COLAs

The Social Security Administration bases the next year's COLA on the change in average third-quarter inflation data from one year to the next, as measured by the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W).

It sounds more complicated than it is. Basically, it'll add up the CPI-W figures for July, August, and September 2025 and divide by three to get the average. Then, it'll compare that to the average from the same months in 2024. The difference will become the 2026 COLA.

COLAs are percentages, so everyone sees their checks increase by a slightly different amount. That also means that if you're earning an above-average check now, you're guaranteed to get an above-average COLA by dollar amount.

Average Social Security benefits tend to increase over time, but here's a quick breakdown of the average checks for the most common types of Social Security benefits as of July 2025:

Data source: Social Security Administration. All benefits rounded to the nearest dollar.

All benefit types will see the same percentage increase beginning with the December 2025 payment, which goes out in January 2026. We don't know exactly how much it will be yet, but there are some predictions floating around.

What the 2026 Social Security COLA could look like

The Senior Citizens League (TSCL), a nonpartisan senior group, is known for making pretty accurate Social Security COLA predictions. Its latest estimate calls for a 2.7% COLA, up slightly from the previous month's. This would be larger than the 2.5% COLA seniors saw in 2025 and a little above average compared to the last 25 years.

You can get a rough idea of where your checks might fall next year by adding 2.7% to your existing checks. For example, if you qualified for the $2,007 average retirement benefit, a 2.7% COLA would give you another $54 per month. Similarly, if you're currently receiving a $954 monthly spousal benefit, a 2.7% COLA would add about $26 to your monthly check.

Again, if you're currently receiving a lot more than the average check, you can expect a bigger bump, provided the COLA stays at 2.7% or increases. Once the Social Security Administration makes the official announcement in October, you can repeat this calculation to get an even more accurate idea of what to expect in 2026. The government will also send you personalized COLA notices with your exact 2026 benefit amount in December.

What to do if your COLA doesn't go far enough

Even with an above-average COLA looking likely, your benefit increase may fall short of what you'd hoped for. In that case, you may have to explore some other options to supplement your checks next year.

You might be able to reduce expenses or rely more on personal savings. If that doesn't work, you may have to try taking on a part-time job or applying for other government benefits, like Supplemental Security Income (SSI). This is a monthly check for the blind, disabled, and low-income seniors. It also gets a COLA every year, and many states supplement the federal benefit amount.

Once you know how much your Social Security checks will be worth in 2026, compare this to your monthly expenses. Then, look into these options to figure out how you'll cover the rest of your costs.

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