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Stocks and dollar steady as traders eye key payrolls benchmark revision

ReutersSep 9, 2025 12:13 PM
  • Stocks get lift from Fed easing expectations
  • Traders await payrolls benchmark revision
  • Markets unrattled by France political upheaval
  • Investors weigh 50bp cut, look to U.S. CPI, PPI releases for clues
  • Political turmoil in many countries complicates outlook for FX bond markets

SINGAPORE/LONDON, Sept 9 (Reuters) - Global stocks and the dollar steadied on Tuesday ahead of a key revision to U.S. payrolls numbers that could help shape investor thinking about the likely course of Federal Reserve policy, while gold hit a new record high.

Elsewhere, European markets brushed off French political uncertainty after the government's collapse on Monday.

S&P futures .EScv1 ticked 0.1% higher and Nasdaq futures .NQcv1 rose 0.2%, which would see the tech-focused index surpass a record high scaled in the previous session.

Europe's STOXX 600 index .STOXX was up 0.1% after Asian shares .MIAPJ0000PUS earlier added 1%. French blue chips .FCHI were up 0.2% and earlier rose as much as 0.7% while the country's government bonds were steady.

Breathing new life into the equities rally were expectations that the Fed will cut rates when it meets next week, following Friday's weak U.S. jobs report.

While consumer and producer price inflation data are due in the week ahead, investors are betting that a 25-basis-point cut this month is a done deal, with focus now on whether the Fed could deliver a larger 50-bp move.

The U.S. Labor Department will report a preliminary revision estimate to the employment level for the 12 months through March later in the day.

"They are likely to cut anywhere between half a million and 750,000 jobs off the payrolls count for the 12 months to March, if you get a figure like that it's only going to spur that dovish repricing a little bit further," said Pepperstone's Brown.

Markets are now pricing in an over 11% chance the Fed could lower rates by 50bp this month, compared to zero a week ago, according to the CME FedWatch tool.

Spot gold XAU= earlier touched a fresh record high of $3,659.1 an ounce, buoyed by expectations of imminent Fed cuts. GOL/

POLITICAL TURMOIL

Renewed uncertainty over the political landscape across various economies has rattled currency and bond markets in the past few sessions.

French President Emmanuel Macron is seeking his fifth prime minister in less than two years after opposition parties united to kick out centre-right Prime Minister Francois Bayrou over his unpopular plans for budget tightening.

Bayrou, handed a 364-194 defeat in a parliamentary confidence vote on Monday, will officially offer his resignation to Macron on Tuesday.

The government's collapse was already largely priced in, and Macron has so far ruled out calls for a snap parliamentary or presidential election, which the far-right National Rally has called for.

"If we were to avoid elections, clearly that would be more of a market positive than the alternative, though it doesn't do much to alter the rather perilous fiscal trajectory that France remains on," said Michael Brown, senior research strategist at Pepperstone.

"It does remove a little bit of risk in the short-term, which is why markets are by and large shrugging all of that off this morning."

French 10-year bonds came under modest pressure, pushing yields up around 1.2 basis points to 3.4845%, broadly in line with the rest of the government debt market.

"The tail risk is having a new presidential election before 2027 and a prime minister whose policies are not well received by financial markets," said Kevin Thozet, investment committee member at Carmignac.

"Markets are saying the probability of this happening is very low, so no reason to panic."

The euro EUR=EBS hit a more than six-week high of $1.1756 and was last 0.1% lower on the day.

Along with upheaval in France, investors are also mulling Ishiba's resignation in Japan, a heavy election defeat for Argentina President Javier Milei's ruling party in local elections and the abrupt replacement of Indonesia's finance minister.

Still, losses across currencies were capped by a broadly weaker dollar, while most bond markets have since largely held steady.

The yen JPY=EBS was last 0.6% stronger at 146.6 per dollar, clawing back its losses from the previous session.

The two-year U.S. Treasury yield US2YT=RR, which typically reflects near-term rate expectations, rose 1.8 bps to 3.513%.

The benchmark 10-year yield US10YT=RR rose 2 bps but was still near a five-month trough, last at 4.0684%. US/

In commodities, oil prices gained on Tuesday after OPEC+ decided to increase production by less than what market participants had anticipated.

Brent crude futures LCOc1 were up 0.9% at $66.58 per barrel.

World FX rates YTD http://tmsnrt.rs/2egbfVh

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