By Sukriti Gupta, Purvi Agarwal and Ragini Mathur
Aug 8 (Reuters) - A gauge of Latin American currencies reached a record high on Friday as the U.S. dollar weakened amid expectations of dovish monetary policy from the Federal Reserve, while Brazilian energy giant Petrobras fell after issuing a disappointing dividend forecast.
U.S. President Donald Trump said on Thursday he would nominate economist Stephen Miran for a short-term Fed seat, replacing Governor Adriana Kugler, who resigned unexpectedly last week.
Emerging markets have been buoyed by speculation that the Fed could implement interest rate cuts as early as September following a weak U.S. jobs report last week.
Miran's nomination has further fueled these expectations, as he is perceived to hold dovish policy views.
"For emerging markets, including Latin America, our primary focus is on the Federal Reserve. Markets are currently positioning for the Fed to not only cut rates in September, but potentially deliver more cuts through the end of this year. I believe this is supporting risk sentiment," said Brendan McKenna, an economist at Wells Fargo.
MSCI's Latam currency gauge .MILA00000CUS advanced 0.6% on Friday, hitting a record high and setting up for its longest winning streak since late April.
Currencies from copper-producing countries led the gains, with Peru's sol PEN= rising 0.5%, the biggest increase among peers, as prices of the red metal climbed on optimism around potential U.S. interest rate cuts and positive economic data from China. MET/L
Chile's peso CLP= gained 0.3% after July consumer price data showed higher-than-expected inflation, creating uncertainty over the local central bank's next policy decision.
Meanwhile, Mexico's peso MXN= edged up 0.1%, rebounding from losses in the previous session after the central bank implemented a 25-basis-point interest rate cut.
Concerns persisted over the potential impact of U.S. tariffs, which took effect on Thursday, on countries yet to secure a trade deal with Washington.
The Brazilian real BRL= fell 0.3%. Brazil's government believes the economy is starting to feel the effects of high interest rates and will closely monitor data to see if those impacts are "wider than initially expected", Economic Policy Secretary Guilherme Mello said on Friday.
Brazil, alongside fellow BRICS members India and South Africa, faces some of the highest U.S. tariff rates, prompting discussions of a collective response to the duties.
The Latam stocks gauge .MILA00000PUS rose 0.3%, aiming for its best weekly performance since late April, supported by regional equity gains. Colombian stocks index .COLCAP surged 1% to its highest level since September 2014.
In Brazil, Petrobras PETR3.SA slid 5.6%, poised for its sharpest daily decline in four months, after the company forecast little chance of extraordinary dividends this year due to lower revenues stemming from weaker global oil prices. The broader Bovespa index .BVSP dropped 0.5%.
Geopolitical developments were in focus after Bloomberg News reported that the U.S. and Russia are aiming to reach a deal to halt the war in Ukraine that would lock in Moscow's occupation of territory seized during its invasion.
Ukrainian bonds UA289505717= rallied, while Russia's rouble RUB= fell 0.8%, over-the-counter market data showed.
Key Latin American stock indexes and currencies:
Latin American market prices from Reuters | ||
Equities | Latest | Daily % change |
MSCI Emerging Markets .MSCIEF | 1253.31 | -0.57 |
MSCI LatAm .MILA00000PUS | 2320.23 | 0.26 |
Brazil Bovespa .BVSP | 135894.51 | -0.46 |
Mexico IPC .MXX | 58169.19 | -0.16 |
Chile IPSA .SPIPSA | 8497.04 | 1.63 |
Argentina Merval .MERV | 2299689.94 | -2.1 |
Colombia COLCAP .COLCAP | 1793.01 | 1.04 |
Currencies | Latest | Daily % change |
Brazil real BRL= | 5.4388 | -0.29 |
Mexico peso MXN= | 18.5908 | 0.08 |
Chile peso CLP= | 965.1 | 0.26 |
Colombia peso COP= | 4050.5 | -0.11 |
Peru sol PEN= | 3.521 | 0.48 |
Argentina peso (interbank) ARS=RASL | 1325 | 0.08 |
Argentina peso (parallel) ARSB= | 1305 | -0.76 |