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EMERGING MARKETS-Asian FX gets weekly boost from Fed's expected dovish tilt

ReutersAug 8, 2025 5:38 AM
  • EM FX eye weekly gains as Miran appointed to Fed
  • Asian equities mixed amid tariff uncertainties
  • Weekly rallies show investor resilience

By Roushni Nair

- Asian currencies were subdued on Friday, while equities were mixed, as investors weighed the Federal Reserve's expected dovish tilt and the impact of U.S. import tariffs.

Markets appeared unmoved by U.S. President Donald Trump's latest tariff moves, with the Indonesian rupiah IDR=, Malaysian ringgit MYR=, and Thai baht THB=TH slipping marginally by 0.1%.

Jakarta shares .JKSE gained 0.6% while those in Kuala Lumpur .KLSE advanced 0.3%, though Singapore .STI and Seoul .KS11 each fell more than 0.5%.

There was some optimism over potential Fed rate cuts, fuelled by Trump's nomination of dovish economist Stephen Miran to the Fed board, but also wariness over trade policy that has pushed average U.S. import duty rates to century-high levels.

Despite Friday's subdued trading, the week told a different story. The MSCI emerging market currency gauge .MIEM00000CUS added more than 0.6%, on track for its best week since June 23, while emerging Asian equities .MIMS00000PUS advanced more than 2% on a weekly basis.

The Thai baht THB=TH gained more than 1.5% for the week, its best since May 19, while the rupiah IDR= added more than 1.3% weekly.

U.S. imports from Southeast Asia's biggest economies now face tariff rates of about 19%, significantly below earlier threatened levels.

The Trump administration imposed tariffs on dozens of countries on Thursday, with rates ranging 10% to 50%, while adding 40% duties on products determined to be illegally rerouted to conceal their origin.

The U.S. dollar was largely unchanged against six major peers on Friday, but nursed weekly losses exceeding 0.7% as concerns over softening U.S. economic momentum, especially in the labour market, boosted hopes of Fed rate cuts. USD/

BNP Paribas expects dollar weakness medium-term, with the euro positioned to gain most.

Looking ahead, USD-Asia pairs probably face modest declines as a structurally bearish dollar outlook is partially offset by Asia's weakening fundamentals under rising tariff pressures in the coming months, said Parisha Saimbi, FXLM Strategist for EM Asia at BNP Paribas.

As expected, emerging market central banks maintained caution, with the Bank of Japan, Monetary Authority of Singapore and the Reserve Bank of India keeping rates steady amid resilient growth.

"We think the central bank will keep rates on hold as well" at next week's Bank of Thailand meeting, Barclays analysts said, noting the U.S. import tariffs did not deviate much from the central bank's baseline.

The Philippine peso PHP= advanced 0.3% while Manila shares .PSI fell 0.2%.

Trump imposed additional 25% tariffs on India over Russian oil purchases, though the rupee INR=IN gained 0.1% while Mumbai shares .NSEI slipped 0.3%.

Market participants now await a potential China-U.S. tariff agreement ahead of the August 12 deadline, with failure risking triple-digit duty levels.

Taiwan stocks .TWII gained more than 2.5% weekly while Seoul stocks .KS11 added nearly 3% for the week.

HIGHLIGHTS:

** India rice hits three-year low on weak rupee, supply glut

** India July inflation likely dropped to an eight-year low

** US crude exports hit four-year low in July

Asian stocks and currencies as of 0409 GMT

COUNTRY

FX RIC

FX DAILY %

FX YTD %

INDEX

STOCKS DAILY %

STOCKS YTD %

Japan

JPY=

-0.01

+6.84

.N225

2.35

6.89

China

CNY=CFXS

+0.00

+1.64

.SSEC

0.07

8.66

India

INR=IN

+0.10

-2.28

.NSEI

-0.14

3.88

Indonesia

IDR=

+0.09

-1.11

.JKSE

0.65

6.49

Malaysia

MYR=

-0.07

+5.55

.KLSE

0.27

-5.42

Philippines

PHP=

+0.32

+2.05

.PSI

-0.20

-2.71

S.Korea

KRW=KFTC

-0.14

+6.07

.KS11

-0.63

33.67

Singapore

SGD=

-0.03

+6.38

.STI

-0.52

11.84

Taiwan

TWD=TP

-0.07

+9.86

.TWII

0.05

4.26

Thailand

THB=TH

-0.09

+6.09

.SETI

-0.20

-9.83

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